I was painting a worst case scenario picture. I love Pike as a coach. He has a real chance. I don't expect a miracle recruit for 2017. Hoping for a decent guy, maybe even diamond in the rough. My realistic scenario is a flat+ year on the court (we'll be better, so will the league), with an upset or two and Pikiell and his staff (planted seeds will sprout) signing another 4* and a eye opening 3*. Hopefully a specialist short timer. This'll buy 2 more years, which will have us on a good trajectory.
Lemme ask you: who was the last coach they gave six years to? Waters had moderate success through 5, and he couldn't get 6, 7 or 8. If he gets 6, he's here a long time.
But to answer your question.....it depends. Unless something huge happens with the 2017 class, we gotta wait for some verbals for '18
Well, the coaching tenure thing is a sticky thing, because most of the departures were not due to performance.
Wenzel - 9 years, performance
Bannon - 4 years, scandal
Waters - 5 years, politics (push out to get Hill in)
Hill - 4 years, performance + player retention + baseball game
Rice - 3 years, scandal
Jordan - 3 years, horrid performance
I think if Pikiell is moving the ship in the right direction without scandal, he's got a very good shot at six seasons. If he tanks (Jordan) or runs into scandal (Bannon/Rice), that would change things.