Well, last night's major global models showed everything from a raging rainstorm Thursday afternoon (Euro) to a brief shower (CMC) to a gorgeous sunny day GFS), while today's 12Z models are completely inconsistent with what was seen last night, with the Euro/GFS both showing a mild (highs in the low 50s), dry day, but now the CMC sis howing significant rainfall through the morning and into the early afternoon.
The only thing the models seem relatively consistent on is temps being well above average (42/26F is the average high/low on 12/28), as they're all handling next week's potential storm differently, which is not unusual this far out for operational models, which are more prone to wild swings than the somewhat smoothed out ensemble forecasts (where each model is run 20-50X with slightly varying initial/boundary conditions to evaluate sensitivity), which are showing some potential for rain, but above normal temps.
Bottom line is it's way too early to know, for sure, if we're going to see some rain or not, but it is looking pretty likely that it won't be colder than the upper 40s. Stay tuned.
https://www.weather.gov/okx/
FYI, most probably know this already, but zero chance of a white Christmas anywhere in the NE US; will be sunny and mild with a high around 50F. On the plus side for winter enthusiasts, most long range pros are forecasting a pattern shift by the end of the month, lasting at least a few weeks - not necessarily brutal cold, but colder than average, which opens up the possibility of snow, if we can get the cold air to coincide with a decent storm track (can't be predicted this far out). We'll see.
The only thing the models seem relatively consistent on is temps being well above average (42/26F is the average high/low on 12/28), as they're all handling next week's potential storm differently, which is not unusual this far out for operational models, which are more prone to wild swings than the somewhat smoothed out ensemble forecasts (where each model is run 20-50X with slightly varying initial/boundary conditions to evaluate sensitivity), which are showing some potential for rain, but above normal temps.
Bottom line is it's way too early to know, for sure, if we're going to see some rain or not, but it is looking pretty likely that it won't be colder than the upper 40s. Stay tuned.
https://www.weather.gov/okx/
FYI, most probably know this already, but zero chance of a white Christmas anywhere in the NE US; will be sunny and mild with a high around 50F. On the plus side for winter enthusiasts, most long range pros are forecasting a pattern shift by the end of the month, lasting at least a few weeks - not necessarily brutal cold, but colder than average, which opens up the possibility of snow, if we can get the cold air to coincide with a decent storm track (can't be predicted this far out). We'll see.
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