Weather for Temple @ RU: warm, but possible/probable showers
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Thats the biggest threat for showers. How widespread is the question and for how long. Yesterday alot of areas were drenched but some areas werent. The game itself is looking like our best shot for dry weather besides a spot shower
Bring a towels to dry your seats…….for peasants that are not in the club seats
If people want pithy, just watch the radar and the sky today, as this is still a very low confidence forecast.As expected, still a lot of uncertainty over the timing, location, and intensity of any showers and possible t-storms tomorrow. The NWS forecast is for less showers/storms than today, which is good as today has been a real mess for many with some severe storms bringing downpours, high wind gusts and localized flooding (some spots getting 3-6" of rain, while some got very little). If one looks at the graphic below, the most likely time for showers is the late afternoon, which is common in these instability-driven convection setups, as the heating of the day energizes the atmosphere, which will already be very moist and warm (temps in the mid-80sd and wpoints in the low/mid-70s).
As per the discussion below, while activity looks to be less than this afternoon, a strong storm or two with a downpour and some lightning can't be ruled out - hopefully, we'll just get weaker showers and less rain, especially as the strongest forcing for showers should be a bit to the NW of 95. There should also be large stretches of dry weather with mostly cloudy skies. And in setups like this, the chances of storms/showers usually go down in the evening, so we might have a shot at a mostly dry game, although again a shower/storm can't be ruled out, which is why many of us will be watching the radar. Lee Goldberg basically just said much of the same...
On Saturday, the risk for severe weather looks much more
`marginal`, given more clouds to start, lower temperatures with
highs mainly in the 80s, and less instability. Still, given a
very moist airmass remaining in place with dewpoints in the 70s,
high precipitable water values, and perhaps just `enough` shear,
if we see some clearing in the afternoon, there will be a threat
for at least isolated strong to severe storms. It is possible
that we see a somewhat similar scenario to today, with some
storms firing just inland from the shore along the sea breeze,
then lifting northward, but perhaps less intensity and coverage
that what we are seeing on Friday.
We could possibly see showers and t-storms at almost any time today/tonight, but they're certainly more likely with the afternoon heating, so afternoon tailgates are more likely to see some showers (and maybe a short heavy downpour) than the game. However, long stretches of the afternoon and evening should stay dry and if the HRRR and NAM are right, we might not see any showers, but given the NWS forecast (and some other models), which is more pessimistic, it's hard to predict little to no rain with confidence. The NWS forecast calls for 0.1-0.25" of rain (with the usual qualifier of "except higher amounts possible in t-storms" since downpours could happen) from 2-8 pm and from 8 pm-2 am, as per below.
If people want pithy, just watch the radar and the sky today, as this is still a very low confidence forecast.
We could possibly see showers and t-storms at almost any time today/tonight, but they're certainly more likely with the afternoon heating, so afternoon tailgates are more likely to see some showers (and maybe a short heavy downpour) than the game. However, long stretches of the afternoon and evening should stay dry and if the HRRR and NAM are right, we might not see any showers, but given the NWS forecast (and some other models), which is more pessimistic, it's hard to predict little to no rain with confidence. The NWS forecast calls for 0.1-0.25" of rain (with the usual qualifier of "except higher amounts possible in t-storms" since downpours could happen) from 2-8 pm and from 8 pm-2 am, as per below.
Soooooo ... maybe it'll rain, maybe it won't.
Yep, that's the nature of instability-driven mesoscale convective showers and storms. Impossible to predict exactly when and where they'll hit. Can only say they're less likely with less intensity than yesterday afternoon or what we'll likely see tomorrow,
The only certainty is that if P'way is unlucky enough to get a couple of 1/2" downpours during the tailgates and game, while Someville gets nothing at all (quite possible), people will whine and complain about the forecast, whereas if the situation is reversed, people will be happier with the outcome but they'll still whine and complain about the forecast.
You beat me to it!!! I was just going to say that. :) :) :)
If you controlled the scoreboard, you could put the radar loop and maybe the score on the board too.
Good topic, I'll play...
Rain in the Summertime
Who'll Stop the Rain
Raindrops Keep Falling on My Head
Let It Rain
Rain King
I have my poncho ready to go today. I'll be there rain or shine (well, darkness, since it's a night game).
Poncho? What do you think I'm rich? I'm going in with a trash bag
I got a 5 pack of red ones on Amazon for like $12 a bit ago. Nice to have on hand!
If folks don't want storms, root for clouds all day, as they will limit daytime heating at the surface and reduce the chance for storms. Plus, yeah it's HAB when the sun is out.
I'm liking the latest NWS update from noon, below. Looking like weaker storms during the afternoon and hopefully very few/isolated storms after about 6-7 pm, so maybe the game will be dry or close to it.
And this has to be said: if one looks at the models, they simply show their inability to forecast mesoscale shower/storm events. For example, there's simply no way any of the specific models verifies. For example, look at the 12Z NAM - it's just a best guess, as it's unrealistic to believe we're giong to have 1/2-1" of rain in Mercer/Bucks, but nothing anywhere else in NJ from 2-8 pm today. Simlarly, I have a hard time believing the 12Z HRRR showing a ring of 1/4-1/2" rain from Morristown to Trenton to Toms River, but nothing for P'way from 2-8 pm. This is why the NWS makes a forecast that says" 0.1-0.25" of rain, with higher amounts possible in t-storms."
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1206 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As we head into this afternoon, thus far convection has been
limited to just a shower or two mainly in southern Delaware. Low
clouds were quite extensive this morning. Though RAP analysis
suggest 2500-3500 j/kg CAPE across areas southeast of I-95.
However, with all of the low clouds this morning along with some
cloud debris from earlier convection, instability overall across
our area, particularly north and west of I-95, looks more
limited than yesterday. We are starting to warm into the 80s
across the Delaware Valley on southeastward, and dewpoints
outside of the Poconos for the most part are in the low to mid
70s, with another very warm and muggy day. For most spots
though, this will be the first day we don`t eclipse 90 degree
high temperatures. Additionally, wind shear is a bit less today.
While storms will likely still fire this afternoon, probably
similar to yesterday along the sea breeze in south/central New
Jersey and Delaware and then lift northwestward, expect the
storms will not be as strong as yesterday.
Most model guidance suggests that thunderstorm activity will
diminish from 6-9 PM with the loss of daytime heating. Low clouds and
areas of fog may settle in once again overnight. However, a more
prominent shortwave lifting north toward Sunday morning may
result in showers and isolated thunderstorms expanding across
our area, particularly across eastern PA into northwest NJ late
tonight, then southeastward early tomorrow morning.
Let's hope this "line" of convection SE of us doesn't continue moving towards P'way - looks like some big storms in there...
Love Zep, great song, but I'll take at least 2 on my list over Rain Song, especially Rain King, which is one of my top 50 songs.
A
That radar seems different than the one on weather.com
Let's hope this "line" of convection SE of us doesn't continue moving towards P'way - looks like some big storms in there...
That radar seems different than the one on weather.com
I know, just worried about our early tailgaters. We'll be there around 4 pm. From a game weather perspective, it's better to have clouds and showers before the game, as that releases some of the stored potential energy, making showers, later, a bit less likely.
Fyi to anyone in the lots - potential downpour incoming. At home in EB right now and it's building from spotswood towards pway.
Good by game time hopefully.
Good by game time hopefully.
True. Not so fun for tailgaters. I am not even planning to leave from Hudson Co. until 5:30
And the NWS just issued a severe t-storm warning for the area...
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
242 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
North central Monmouth County in central New Jersey...
Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...
* Until 330 PM EDT.
* At 242 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over East
Brunswick, or 7 miles south of New Brunswick, moving north at 10
mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to
roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible.
* Locations impacted include...
New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Somerville, Somerset, Edison, Old
Bridge, East Brunswick, South Brunswick, Sayreville, North
Brunswick, Bound Brook, Manville, Matawan, Jamesburg, Cranbury,
Millstone, Princeton Meadows, Brownville, Kingston and Dayton.
This includes the following highways...
New Jersey Turnpike between exits 9 and 12.
Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 4, and
between mile markers 9 and 12.
Garden State Parkway between mile markers 120 and 130.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
242 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
North central Monmouth County in central New Jersey...
Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...
* Until 330 PM EDT.
* At 242 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over East
Brunswick, or 7 miles south of New Brunswick, moving north at 10
mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Wind damage to
roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible.
* Locations impacted include...
New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Somerville, Somerset, Edison, Old
Bridge, East Brunswick, South Brunswick, Sayreville, North
Brunswick, Bound Brook, Manville, Matawan, Jamesburg, Cranbury,
Millstone, Princeton Meadows, Brownville, Kingston and Dayton.
This includes the following highways...
New Jersey Turnpike between exits 9 and 12.
Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 4, and
between mile markers 9 and 12.
Garden State Parkway between mile markers 120 and 130.
