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OT: Moderate to Significant Snow (and some rain SE of 95) for Sunday, 1/19.

yep definitely nothing set in stone yet at the moment as the models are still not agreeing
This is what bothers me. When I try to carefully read what @RU848789 and you post, you two really don't seem to be disagreeing much on substance. You both are saying (in different ways) what you just said: "nothing set in stone yet as the models are still not agreeing." So it troubles me that you two argue so much. I understand that your and his tones are different. He roots for snow and you (being sensible) don't. (I also find it annoying he roots for snow even though we both know that rooting has no effect on whether it snows or not.) All the same, you two both need to recognize that you end up not very far from each other.
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Derkack needs to get benched

Derkack the worst Rutgers player ever who got that many minutes? That's nuts.

Here are some season stat lines for players just on Pike's rosters with 20+ min and sub .300 3P%, with names removed:
SIMPSON? 26.0 min, 8.3 pts (.305 FG%, .282 3P%, .864 FT%), 3.2 rb, 2.9 ast, 1.4 stl, 1.5 tov, 1.3 pf (25 starts)
23.3 min, 8.3 pts (.390 FG%, .216 3P%, .776 FT%), 4.1 rb, 0.9 ast, 0.8 stl, 1.2 tov, 1.6 pf (6 starts)
23.1 min, 5.6 pts (.371 FG%, .222 3P%, .522 FT%), 3.1 rb, 1.9 ast, 1.1 stl, 1.3 tov, 1.0 pf (14 starts)
22.9 min, 8.5 pts (.376 FG%, .239 3P%, .556 FT%), 2.9 rb, 1.1 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.3 tov, 1.8 pf (22 starts)
22.9 min, 5.7 pts (.317 FG%, .204 3P%, .800 FT%), 4.3 rb, 1.6 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.9 tov, 2.4 pf (8 starts)
DERKACK? 22.8 min, 7.0 pts (.356 FG%, .222 3P%, .721 FT%), 3.9 rb, 2.4 ast, 0.9 stl, 1.6 tov, 2.5 pf (8 starts)
22.6 min, 7.4 pts (.383 FG%, .297 3P%, .661 FT%), 3.5 rb, 1.2 ast, 1.0 stl, 1.0 tov, 1.9 pf (31 starts)
22.3 min, 7.8 pts (.413 FG%, .278 3P%, .667 FT%), 3.1 rb, 1.1 ast, 0.6 stl, 0.9 tov, 2.4 pf (19 starts)
21.4 min, 6.7 pts, (.411 FG%, .280 3P%, .800 FT%), 3.7 rb, 1.5 ast, 0.8 stl, 1.4 tov, 1.6 pf (21 starts)
21.3 min, 8.5 pts (.413 FG%, .277 3P%, .571 FT%), 3.5 rb, 1.2 ast, 1.0 stl, 2.1 tov, 1.5 pf (0 starts)
21.2 min, 8.3 pts (.383 FG%, .297 3P%, .574 FT%), 2.8 rb, 0.8 ast, 0.7 stl, 1.1 tov, 2.4 pf (13 starts)
20.1 min, 7.1 pts, (.374 FG%, .217 3P%, .793 FT%), 1.6 rb, 1.5 ast, 0.8 stl, 0.9 tov, 1.2 pf (6 starts)

There's a clear "worst" in this list?
Clearly, Simpson is the worst on that list ... at least I am pretty sure that is Simpson of last season (the 1st stat line listed).

The player right above who I think is Derkack is also worse (the 5th stat line) . Was that Davis last year, as a freshman?

Though their overall FG percentages were better, you could argue Derkack has been better than the 3rd and 4th stat lines, also. Is one or both Mathis and/or Mike Williams?

And Derkack is better so far than the last stat line on the list - have no idea who that is.

So ... 12 stat lines from 12 seasons of players, and Derkack is at worst the 6th worst of those 12 stat lines ... middle of the pack.

OT: New York Mets 2024-2025 Off Season Thread


SNY reported it.
Don't see how signing Winker has any impact on Alonzo. Ones an outfielder, the other plays first.

Derkack needs to get benched

He typically takes one three a game dude. Thats the math in 10 out of 16 game. Your whole argument about him being the worst hinges on one single missed shot a game. He doesn’t take many 3s. But he does do other good things which is how he earned more playing time than expected this season. Albeit the competition really underperformed too but the point is he doesn’t stand out as this horrendous outlier at all.

I will agree with you there is definately exaggeration in saying the worst in 25 years. That was said out of frustration on my way home from the RAC after Purdue. So if the argument is that he’s not the worst in 25 years that plays that many minutes, you are right, there’s been worse.

But I think he is the worst on this roster who played significant minutes. I’m not including Hayes because he’s barely playing.

Derkack needs to get benched

Ok so then the question is taking these 3s which have a 0.33 point per possession a good shot because it leads to other higher quality shots (pump fake, leading to driving to the lane)?

This is data vs top 100 opponents:

His 2pt % is 41.7%

41.7% x 2 pts x 1.3 (OR rate) x 0.7 (doesn’t get fouled 70% of the time) = 0.75

72% (free throw %) x 2 shots x 0.3 (30% of the time gets foulded = 0.432

(0.75 + 0.432) x 0.8 (JDs TO rate is 20%) = 0.95.

So the payoff for taking the 0.33 shot once in a while, is to generate a shot that leads to 0.95 points per possession. Rutgers is at 1.11 points per possession.

It’s clearly better shot for him than shooting a 3, with the expected value almost triple! But it’s still below the Rutgers average. That is why in my view, it’s addition by subtraction having his minutes go to Grant etc if this is how he’s going to play. If he chooses to really go all out on D and defer on offense, I can see him adding value.

There’s more value to drawing fouls than just the 72%. Every fouls he draws is another foul on the path to 5 fouls for an opponent. It’s also another tick along the path to the 7 foul bonus. Drawing fouls has value outside of the raw efficiency numbers. Isn’t that common sense?

Derkack needs to get benched

There is no reason for a guard like Derkack to shoot 3s if he’s shooting ar this low of a rate. It does not keep teams honest. They will beg him to take those shots. I laid out the math in the other post. You can choose to ignore the math. Have a nice day, and I hope we win today.

He typically takes one three a game dude. Thats the math in 10 out of 16 game. Your whole argument about him being the worst hinges on one single missed shot a game. He doesn’t take many 3s. But he does do other good things which is how he earned more playing time than expected this season. Albeit the competition really underperformed too but the point is he doesn’t stand out as this horrendous outlier at all.

THE OFFICIAL RUTGERS-NEBRASKA PREDICTION THREAD

As posted in an other thread, I think RU either wins a close game or loses by double digits.

As also posted: If RU is playing well enough to win, I think they WILL win. But if RU is not playing well enough to win I think Nebraska wins going away, by double digits ... maybe up double digits much of the game.
I think it’s also possible we fall just short like we have in several other games this year. I would put the odds like this:

- Rutgers loses by 20+ points — 10%
- Rutgers loses by 10-19 points — 35%
- Rutgers loses by 1-9 points — 40%
- Rutgers wins by 1-5 points — 10%
- Rutgers wins by 6-9 points — 4%
- Rutgers wins by 10+ points — 1%
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