Thanks, Loyal - replying to your post in this thread, which is the active one for 1/11. Dan and I are apparently well aligned, as he now has 20% chance of a bomb (6-24"), a 60% chance of light snow (1-4") and a 20% chance of nada and I've said the 1-4" amounts are most likely with the bomb and nada being unlikely, but possible. The NWS is also much more bullish on a light to moderate event than they were this morning (same as I was before seeing today's 12Z models), as per today's 4 pm discussion, below.
https://nj1015.com/nj-stays-frozen-and-windy-3-possible-scenarios-for-weekend-storm/
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
315 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2025
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For Friday night and Saturday...A strong upper-level trough is
forecast to be sliding across south-central Canada to start
Saturday, however this trough has energy trailing back into the
southern Plains to northern Mexico. As this shifts eastward,
potentially strong energy and upper-level flow may result in the
trough becoming negatively tilted as it slides across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic or moreso once off the coast. This will drive
surface low pressure from the western Gulf coast east or
northeastward through Saturday. The track looks to be to our south
and east, however the exact track details will highly depend on the
strength of the upper-level trough and whether or not trailing
southern energy phases into it northward. If a full phase occurs
prior to the East Coast, then a significant storm would increase,
however the flow may be on the faster side which keeps from a full
phase from happening or it occurs to late. This would result in a
slower strengthening surface low as it slides by our region. The
overall ensemble guidance points to a storm, however the impacts on
our region will depend on the track as the timing of the features
aloft will be key. There is enough of a consensus though to raise
PoPs into the low likely range for much of our region late Friday
night and the first part of Saturday. The timing however does differ
some with some guidance slower than others. As of now, the air mass
looks cold enough to result in snow as the precipitation type,
however this will depend on the track as a more northward shift (or
tucked in surface low) could bring in some warming especially closer
to the coast.
