https://www.flowrestling.org/rankin...ngs/31613-buckeyes-lead-2019-recruiting-hauls
Fantastic article showing that you need the elite and highly ranked recruits (87% of AAs in 2019), but even only ~50% of those pan out...from the link:
Hypothetically, a #5 class can certainly be usurped by a #20 if #5 has one guy flame out and #20 has a, say, Joey Lavallee or Drew Foster who were both unranked but who made NCAA finals. Or how about Taylor Venz - #96 that AA’d as a Frosh.
The attrition rate (and by attrition I mean ‘guys who quit or who never come close to expectation’) is so high that it really brings up the questions 1) why? and 2) as a college recruiter, how do you avoid it?
Let’s look at the 2013 and 2014 Big Board and take the Top 25 from each year. That’s 50 wrestlers total. You know how many never earned a single AA? 24. Nearly 50% of the best wrestlers those two years never placed. 13 (26%) never finished their career.
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2019 NCAA Finalists by SR Big Board Rank
125: 2017 #2-Spencer Lee over 2016 #11-Jack Mueller
125 Big Board All Americans - 7 of 8 (Rayvon Foley)
133: 2016 #2-Nick Suriano over 2017 #1-Daton Fix
133 Big Board All Americans - 7 of 8 (John Erneste)
141: 2017 #3-Yianni over 2014 #13-Joey McKenna
141 Big Board All Americans - 7 of 8 (Kyle Shoop)
149: 2013 #12-Anthony Ashnault over 2014 #8-Micah Jordan
149 Big Board All Americans - 7 of 8 (Mitch Finesilver)
157: 2014 #4-Jason Nolf over 2014 #17-Tyler Berger
157 Big Board All Americans - 7 of 8 (Alec Pantaleo)
165: 2017 #19-Mehki Lewis over 2015 #3-Vincenzo Joseph
165 Big Board All Americans - 8 of 8
174: 2015 #1-Zahid Valencia over 2016 #1-Mark Hall
174 Big Board All Americans - 8 of 8
184: Unranked Drew Foster over 2016 #74-Max Dean
125 Big Board All Americans - 6 of 8 (Foster, Emery Parker)
197: 2014 #6-Bo Nickal over 2015 #44-Kollin Moore
197 Big Board All Americans - 6 of 8 (Preston Weigel, Ben Honis)
285: Unranked Anthony Cassar over 2014 #30-Derek White
285 Big Board All Americans - 6 of 7 (Cassar (+ Amarveer Dhesi of Canada))
Finalist Big Board Rank - Last Five Years
Top 10 - (48)
Top 20 - (13)
21 to 50 - (17)
Bottom 50 - (13)
Unranked - (9) Drew Foster, Anthony Cassar, Ronny Perry, Mike Macchiavello, Jared Haught, Lavion Mayes, Joey Lavallee, Brett Pfarr, Tyler Wilps