ADVERTISEMENT

3/8 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

Providence slinking out into the night after losing to De Paul

UNC wallops Notre Dame by 40 plus and should get a nice NET bump
 
I love it, in theory. But I can live with each of these incoherencies:

I can live with a bit of OOC bias because it incentivizes the scheduling of games that help differentiate between the top ~48 teams. More important in football, granted.

I can also live with bias toward quality wins. The tournament is played among quality teams and so I'd be slightly more interested in how a team performs against top competition than how they perform against bad teams.

Finally, but least of all, I can live with a very small amount of bias toward road record. The way it was applied to RU last year pissed me off, a team that was picking off top teams left and right at home and consistently just barely missing on the road against a tougher road slate (against the 11-14th seeded teams last year, RU had 4 home games and 1 road game). A little different for, say, the 2002 RU team that was just as good at home but complete ass on the road. I just think that once again, the tournament setting asks teams to win in unfamiliar confines and you'd like to see that they can do that over the course of a season.

I readily concede that none of these are justifiable in the context of a "body of work" with no recency factor, so it's tricky, but that body-of-work principle is flawed in itself because it could diverge from anticipated tournament performance, so I see these (at least the last two) as acceptable little hedges against that flaw.

I will talk about all of this in the language of rating systems because it makes the ideas clearer and even though there is no explicit numerical rating calculated by the selection committee there is an implicit "rating" formed from their criteria.

A fundamental property of any decent rating system is that if teams A and B play each other with team A entering the game with a rating of x and team B entering the game with a rating of y, then the sum of the two teams ratings after the game will still be x + y, i.e. the gain for the winner = the loss for the loser.

This allows you, if you are so inclined, to weight some games higher. So while I don't personally want to rate OOC games higher, you could do so without making your rating system fundamentally flawed. Ditto neutral-site games since they are by definition neutral for both teams.

What you cannot do, however, is give a bonus for road wins without a corresponding penalty for home losses. If you do that, you get the perverse outcome where two teams can boost both of their ratings by losing to each other at home. This should absolutely not be possible.

You will run into similar problems when giving bonuses for "quality wins".
 
hopefully FSU takes care of business today and knocks dook out for good. I think they need 2 more wins to make it. And 2 tough games FSU and winner of Carolina/VTech
 
Go Florida State. Don't want NC either. Too many big guys.
 
Last edited:
My father is a Duke alum....he texted me last night and said Florida State is not a good matchup for them. I wouldn’t sweat it.
 
MORNING UPDATE

FIRST FOUR BYES:
MARYLAND, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, UCLA, LOUISVILLE
LAST FOUR IN: DRAKE, SYRACUSE COLORADO STATE, BOISE STATE

FIRST FOUR OUT: MISSISSIPPI, SAINT LOUIS, UTAH STATE, DUKE
NEXT FOUR OUT: SAINT JOHN'S, XAVIER, SETON HALL, MEMPHIS
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greene Rice FIG
Caroline they played only 5 days ago, and GTech 9 days ago.

48 hours before symptoms. Nothing to see here.

Unfortunately I have become an expert on such matters. Somehow my 2 kids have escaped 4 close contact quarantines. We are in quarantine #5 and pending a 1145AM test to allow for exit on Sunday.
 
  • Like
Reactions: patk89 and koko2315
just give them the rapid test, if no one tests positive, send them out to play

has anyone asked if any of those who have had covid pauses this year actually had anyone really sick or even with symptoms...like as any player even had the sniffles, they never tell us that
 
I don't think they should shut down an entire team for one positive test... How did Purdue manage to keep playing when Stefanovic tested positive?
 
  • Like
Reactions: bac2therac
They could be in touch with close contacts and not have COVID, big difference.

Fair but Stefanovic 100% tested positive, and Purdue just went ahead and played the three scheduled games without him. Was he just not practicing with the team in the days leading up to his positive test?
 
I don't think they should shut down an entire team for one positive test... How did Purdue manage to keep playing when Stefanovic tested positive?

Yes they should. The entire team could be positive, showing symptoms and very contagious shortly. It isn't fair for the actions of one player to take down opponents.
 
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT