4th & 13 from our 40 vs a 58 yd FG - 14 sec to go

[read option]

Bielema sent out his K to attempt a 58 yd FG into a swirling wind, down 1, on 4th & 13 from our 40 yd line with 14 sec to go. Sounds crazy, right? Well, considering the circumstances, was that the higher percentage call than leaving the O on the field? Not only did ILL have to get a 13 yd First down on that play, they needed to either score a TD OR get down with no timeouts, clock the ball, and then have their K hit a 40+ yd FG into that same wind.

Schiano made an error in the timing of his timeout, not that he took it. Certainly a mistake but IMHO it should not have been catastrophic.

 

[bac2therac]

Lol

 

[ClassOf02]

I think this has been litigated ad nauseum over the last couple days.

 

[RUPete]

Let’s not do this again. You neglect the FG kicker’s performance throughout the year on 50+. No need to start another thread - let’s move on.

 

[read option]

I think our D’s inability to make a play they absolutely should have been able to has been overshadowed by a timeout. This wasn’t 4th & 1 from the 2 yd line, this was 4th & 13 from the 40. Make a friggin play!

 

[RUPete]

Yes, when a blind man can see that everyone on that side of the ball was beat up that’s the right call. Again, just stop.

 

[bac2therac]

Not really

The timeout was first and the kick 20 yards short and way to the left

The td allowed was similar to the completions made by Illinois all day

 

[read option]

Yes, when a blind man can see that everyone on that side of the ball was beat up that’s the right call. Again, just stop.

Right because we’re a D3 school with barely 22 players on scholarship. Be a B1G DB and make a play instead of choking.

 

[read option]

Not really

The timeout was first and the kick 20 yards short and way to the left

The td allowed was similar to the completions made by Illinois all day

So you expected a 25 yd run after catch past 5 guys? Of course it’s easy to make the HC the scapegoat if you want to pretend you didn’t see what happened on the field. It’s probably a 1 in 1000 chance that play hits. Reason why… make the tackle!!

 

[RUPete]

Right because we’re a D3 school with barely 22 players on scholarship. Be a B1G DB and make a play instead of choking.

You’re being argumentative for the sake of it. It was a dumb ass decision - just move on.

 

[zappaa]

So you expected a 25 yd run after catch past 5 guys? Of course it’s easy to make the HC the scapegoat if you want to pretend you didn’t see what happened on the field. It’s probably a 1 in 1000 chance that play hits. Reason why… make the tackle!!

He could have gone down right where he caught it.
Illinois had plenty of time for the spike.

It wasn’t just FG or TD.
It turned out to be, but the far more advantageous situation was precipitated by the TO

 

[Jimpeg]

anyone that votes to kick the field goal as a higher percentage was not sitting in their seats at this game....

prior games and warm ups are irrlevant... they were moving the ball the entire second half, they couldnt convert on 3rd down because of the wind....

 

[RUPete]

anyone that votes to kick the field goal as a higher percentage was not sitting in their seats at this game....

prior games and warm ups are irrlevant... they were moving the ball the entire second half, they couldnt convert on 3rd down because of the wind....

What?!

 

[Jimpeg]

What?!

did you see that pass on final drive before field goal attempt? ...guy next to me said dam that ball floated...

 

[RUPete]

did you see that pass on final drive before field goal attempt? ...guy next to me said dam that ball floated...

Over analyzing - sorry. And if you think the wind was a factor on passing when they converted on difficult third and longs all day, then what impact do you think it would have on a 57-yard field goal?

 

[zappaa]

Over analyzing - sorry. And if you think the wind was a factor on passing when they converted on difficult third and longs all day, then what impact do you think it would have on a 57-yard field goal?

Are you suggesting 30 mph gusts of swirling winds wasn’t a factor?

 

[RU-Kidding]

anyone that votes to kick the field goal as a higher percentage was not sitting in their seats at this game....

prior games and warm ups are irrlevant... they were moving the ball the entire second half, they couldnt convert on 3rd down because of the wind....

The Illinois Head coach obviously thought a FG attempt was the better option at first until he saw the nullified kick fall short. Otherwise why did he send him out there?

 

[Jimpeg]

Over analyzing - sorry. And if you think the wind was a factor on passing when they converted on difficult third and longs all day, then what impact do you think it would have on a 57-yard field goal?

they were ripping our DBs all second half but the yards after catch were the reason not long throws over 20 yards....
i think they could have converted a pass for a fourth down, but Billemia probable thought wouldnt get a first and then get everyone in field goal intime for a shorter kick...

...See HIGHLIGHTED below..

... anyone that votes to kick the field goal as a higher percentage was not sitting in their seats at this game.....

 

[RUPete]

Are you suggesting 30 mph gusts of swirling winds wasn’t a factor?

Not at all. But if you looked into the performance of their kicker over the course of the season vs. how our defense performed during long passing downs in pressure situations during the game, the call was clear. I guess the 30 mph gusts don’t impact kicks, just passes, right?

 

[RUPete]

they were ripping our DBs all second half but the yards after catch were the reason not long throws over 20 yards....
i think they could have converted a pass for a fourth down, but Billemia probable thought wouldnt get a first and then get everyone in field goal intime for a shorter kick...

...See HIGHLIGHTED below..

... anyone that votes to kick the field goal as a higher percentage was not sitting in their seats at this game.....

I still have no idea what you are arguing. Sorry. Are you for letting the kick play out or in favor of icing the kicker with the TO? You’re not clear in your post.

 

[bac2therac]

So you expected a 25 yd run after catch past 5 guys? Of course it’s easy to make the HC the scapegoat if you want to pretend you didn’t see what happened on the field. It’s probably a 1 in 1000 chance that play hits. Reason why… make the tackle!!

if we tackled him there, they spike and attempt a closer fg

 

[bac2therac]

Not at all. But if you looked into the performance of their kicker over the course of the season vs. how our defense performed during long passing downs in pressure situations during the game, the call was clear. I guess the 30 mph gusts don’t impact kicks, just passes, right?

did he attempt 2 or 3 kicks all year making 2 long ones in probably perfect conditions vs ridiculous wind..what happened with the kick says it all. there was no way bb tried another kick

 

[RUPete]

Anyway, this game is long over and I apologize for participating in this thread. It’s a waste of time. Let’s move onto the next one.

 

[zappaa]

Not at all. But if you looked into the performance of their kicker over the course of the season vs. how our defense performed during long passing downs in pressure situations during the game, the call was clear. I guess the 30 mph gusts don’t impact kicks, just passes, right?

It wasn’t clear to BB until we called TO and he could think about it.
I have no idea what you’re saying in regard to the wind😊

 

[RUPete]

It wasn’t clear to BB until we called TO and he could think about it.
I have no idea what you’re saying in regard to the wind😊

Yes, everyone’s point. That’s why you let it play out. This was not Harrison Buttker kicking.

 

[Shelby65]

Two facts, yes facts, the apologists and just blatantly clueless observers fail to admit or realize:

1. Same odds of making a thousand yard FG. It was the most impossible try ever. The idiot I discussed this with on the way out of the stadium said it’s best to ice no matter how far. I said even an 80 yarder against a 50 yard wind in the rain. He said yes. This same guy is probably one of the apologists on this thread. All the other mouthbreathers here who think the same thing are simply embarrassing themselves.

2. Schiano fully expected a re-kick, never realizing the possibility of UI benefitting from the practice kick. He decided to always ice years ago and that rigid idiocy cost the game. At least he has no one to blame but himself.

And to the other knuckledragger above who suggested scoring from the 40 on a 20 yard spiral pass showed that a 58 yard end-over-end FG try with a higher trajectory is also plausible….well, go look in the mirror or at the HC bio. In both places you’ll see what an idiot looks like.

 

[RU848789]

Bielema sent out his K to attempt a 58 yd FG into a swirling wind, down 1, on 4th & 13 from our 40 yd line with 14 sec to go. Sounds crazy, right? Well, considering the circumstances, was that the higher percentage call than leaving the O on the field? Not only did ILL have to get a 13 yd First down on that play, they needed to either score a TD OR get down with no timeouts, clock the ball, and then have their K hit a 40+ yd FG into that same wind.

Schiano made an error in the timing of his timeout, not that he took it. Certainly a mistake but IMHO it should not have been catastrophic.

As I said elsewhere, I'm one of the biggest Schiano supporters around here, but he blew this decision in every way. It happens. The comparison to make is the chance of making a 58-yard FG against a stiff breeze (likely < 1%) vs. the chance of making a first down on 4th and 13 with 14 seconds left, which is an estimated 23%, based on 14 of 62 offensive plays for Illinois that game, not including punts, that gained 13+ yards or gave an automatic first down (includes 2x10 yard holding calls) and being able to spike the ball to stop the clock in time for another play, given that the clock stops temporarily on a first down (>95% probability of being able to spike it in time, meaning it's inconsequential to the analysis).

Who wouldn't rather take a 20+% chance of a first down, which would then make for a 35-45 yard FG for most of those plays, which has a way higher probability of being made (maybe 10-20%) than that 1% chance of making a 58 yard FG? That's why doing anything other than letting them try that 58 yard FG is just plain nuts. The TO was just plain dumb, regardless of how long before the snap it was called.

Can we stop with these threads?

 

[Sweet Peas Corner]

As I said elsewhere, I'm one of the biggest Schiano supporters around here, but he blew this decision in every way. It happens. The comparison to make is the chance of making a 58-yard FG against a stiff breeze (likely < 1%) vs. the chance of making a first down on 4th and 13 with 14 seconds left, which is an estimated 23%, based on 14 of 62 offensive plays for Illinois that game, not including punts, that gained 13+ yards or gave an automatic first down (includes 2x10 yard holding calls) and being able to spike the ball to stop the clock in time for another play, given that the clock stops temporarily on a first down (>95% probability of being able to spike it in time, meaning it's inconsequential to the analysis).

Who wouldn't rather take a 20+% chance of a first down, which would then make for a 35-45 yard FG for most of those plays, which has a way higher probability of being made (maybe 10-20%) than that 1% chance of making a 58 yard FG? That's why doing anything other than letting them try that 58 yard FG is just plain nuts. The TO was just plain dumb, regardless of how long before the snap it was called.

Can we stop with these threads?

Who the F has time to figure out all that shit you just posted. Was the coach actually analyzing that like you just did?

 

[RU848789]

Who the F has time to figure out all that shit you just posted. Was the coach actually analyzing that like you just did?

Well, anyone should know that the 58-yard FG into the wind has to be <1% without much thought and the DC ought to have a rough percentage of plays that made 13+ yards, including penalties, at his fingertips from the drive charts and even if he didn't but had to guess, I would think a 10-20% guess would be an easy one to make in 2 seconds. There's your guesstimated math in 2 seconds, which should scream let them kick the FG.

 

[Sweet Peas Corner]

OOOfffaaa

 

[yesrutgers01]

He could have gone down right where he caught it.
Illinois had plenty of time for the spike.

It wasn’t just FG or TD.
It turned out to be, but the far more advantageous situation was precipitated by the TO

You know what is interesting- let’s say number 24 takes a better angle. Everyone is assuming he would make the tackle, 5/6 seconds left and plenty of time to spike.
I watched the play a few times now, I actually don’t think he gets a clean hit on the guy.
And then, a couple of things happen. He hits him and the big WR doesn’t go down, but it slows him enough tgat the other guys can now catch up and get him down. This would have been our best case situation after the catch as it may have run the time out.
Or, the WR is smart enough to realize the time on the clock and he goes down on his own or runs out of bounds and stops it with time left.
I really thing if 24 actually did hit him, option 1 would have happened and we win.

 

[gtbb3115]

The Illinois Head coach obviously thought a FG attempt was the better option at first until he saw the nullified kick fall short. Otherwise why did he send him out there?

desperation

 

[NickRU714]

The OP question is false.

Illinois knew Schiano was going to call a TO.
He said so after the game.

So he knew they would get a free “test” FG.
Even if he knew it was a bad idea, it’s plausible to assume he sent the FG unit out anyway and told them to wait until Schiano called a TO and then snap it (TKR podcast also mentioned this).

It’s possible Illinois never had any intention of kicking it.

The real question is what if Schiano didn’t call the TO?
Does Illinois still kick or do they take a delay of game and then run a play on 4th and 18?

 

[RU848789]

It’s possible Illinois never had any intention of kicking it.

But they snapped it and kicked it, unless you think their players knew we called TO, just before the snap.

 

[Plum Street]

Schiano was trying to bait them into a false start which would have been 4th and 19 or a 63 yard field goal . Pretty brilliant when you think about it !

 

[NickRU714]

But they snapped it and kicked it, unless you think their players knew we called TO, just before the snap.

I think it's possible.
Maybe they told the long snapper, holder, kicker: "Schiano is going to call TO. He has extra TOs and we know he'll do it. As soon as they blow the whistle dead, snap the ball anyway and take a test drive."

Need to rewatch it and see how soon they snap after the whistle.
Maybe the snapper was looking at the sideline and Schiano/ref and just waiting?

This is all based on HC Bielema saying he knew Schiano would call a TO. That could just be after the fact coach speak.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I think it's possible.
Maybe they told the long snapper, holder, kicker: "Schiano is going to call TO. He has extra TOs and we know he'll do it. As soon as they blow the whistle dead, snap the ball anyway and take a test drive."

Need to rewatch it and see how soon they snap after the whistle.
Maybe the snapper was looking at the sideline and Schiano/ref and just waiting?

This is all based on HC Bielema saying he knew Schiano would call a TO. That could just be after the fact coach speak.

I didn’t know that but these are Bielema’s quotes.

Was it a no-brainer to go for it on fourth down with 14 seconds left?
Bret Bielema: I mean, as soon as Greg called the timeout – I knew I could see him over there and we always tell our guys to hit the field goal, right? The operation is to hit it. So, Chow hit one from 60 plus in in practice, but that one was going to be a stress. And obviously, when he missed that bad, I knew he couldn't come back and hit from there. So that's when we went with the play and that was a deep dig and then it just, you know, they got out leveraged there and a really good play.

Were you expecting Rutgers to ice you with a timeout on fourth down at the end of the game?
Bret Bielema: Yes. I knew that they had those to burn over there, he was definitely going to ice them. I didn't expect the result of that. Then a quick audible there and definitely made the right call in that situation.

Last-Minute Touchdown Sends #24 Illinois to Road Win Over Rutgers - University of Illinois Athletics

The Fighting Illini secured a 38-31 road win over the Scarlet Knights on Saturday.

fightingillini.com

 

[gtbb3115]

Schiano was trying to bait them into a false start which would have been 4th and 19 or a 63 yard field goal . Pretty brilliant when you think about it !

Brilliant if it works, looks like a dummy when it doesnt

 

[Plum Street]

Brilliant if it works, looks like a dummy when it doesnt

He is brilliant ! Even the best lose sometimes and schiano is our best

 

[Kbee3]

and schiano is our best

That's a very low bar. if you look at a gallery of Rutgers football coaches...at least since Doug Graber....it's pretty much a clown show. RU would be the worst school in college football history at this level if it wasn't for what GS has done here.