Big NIL payments don't necessarily buy wins

[RU-Kidding]

"If name, image and likeness benefits were directly tied to wins, Miami could just about punch its ticket to the College Football Playoff. Texas A&M would be close, at least according to Nick Saban's offseason estimation. Texas would truly be back."

Texas scholarship offensive linemen get $50K each - Longhorns overall committed eight pre-snap penalties last week...

Miami backup QB has a $145K 2 year deal - he accounted for 5 of their 8 turnovers last week after their starter went down

A&M currently a dumpster fire as highlighted in a separate thread


Big NIL money doesn't guarantee wins

 

[cicero grimes]

Over time, I think the feeding frenzy slows as boosters see that their money is not being wisely spent. In my opinion we will get to a system where the best players get paid based upon performance and not hype. To me it makes no sense to give an incoming freshman a big NIL deal when he has never stepped on a field. Someone will figure out how to tie it to performance. That being said, I still hate NIL.

 

[yessir321]

Ohio state/Jackson State has entered the conversation….

 

[rutgersguy1]

I've mentioned this multiple times when NIL is brought up. IMO the dynamics that existed before are the same dynamics that exist now. It's just manifesting itself in another form but it's just more of the same. Instead of bells and whistles it's NIL. The haves are still the haves and the have nots are still the have nots. Nothing has changed all that much and if anything opportunity is better for the have nots than ever before. There will never be parity in CFB. That's a given that just has to be accepted but the opportunity to raise yourself on the landscape has never been better. I see talent spreading out a little at the top and on down. Transfer portal is an opportunity to quickly remake a roster if you're smart about it. CFP expansion is another opportunity as well.

Roster spots and playing time are still limited regardless of NIL and that's still an important factor. Each player will have to balance that with NIL and it's different for everyone. Good players can still be found and they don't all just get pillaged off your roster.

I heard on a pod the same point I've brought up here. Give it time and see what happens, it may correct itself. I've said the same, I could see it curtailing itself to some degree. People assume ROI is winning, no the ROI is unknown. Save for some boosters and schools, how many will like the fact that their NIL dollars have transferred or been suspended or haven't done much. How many will be willing to keep on throwing dollars that don't result in anything. Some will for sure but others may think twice.

I haven't seen the sky falling yet and I still don't as of now.

 

[RUBlackout7]

But how are these deals and contracts structured? I hard to believe they are getting paid if they don’t perform.

 

[rutgersguy1]

But how are these deals and contracts structured? I hard to believe they are getting paid if they don’t perform.

I don't think anyone knows for sure and each deal might be different. From season to season, I'd say yea I wouldn't expect any multi year payments if you might not be there etc.. Within the season though, I think most of the time that's probably a done deal as long as you're on the roster or haven't done anything criminal.

 

[yesrutgers01]

The portal plus NIL is the concern- portal being the bigger problem.
What NCAA has to do is really clamp down on tampering- what happened with the receiver from Pitt, was unbelievable. So out in the open and no one did a damn thing.

 

[rutgersguy1]

The portal plus NIL is the concern- portal being the bigger problem.
What NCAA has to do is really clamp down on tampering- what happened with the receiver from Pitt, was unbelievable. So out in the open and no one did a damn thing.

That kind of thing was probably happening before too and it happens now as well. Supposedly a Utah player was offered 1M and stayed or the BC player 300-600K and stayed. I still have trouble believing those numbers though if they stayed. Nonetheless, if a player wants to go that's their choice and who is say some might be not be looking around anyway.

For every Addison out there, I see a good number in the other direction of transfer players coming to and contributing to teams lower down the status pole. IIRC Cincy had a couple players from Alabama or UGA (or both) that contributed to their playoff team.

 

[sct1111]

Players have to fit a culture you can't just throw money at a bunch of high school kids and expect them to gel into a team. With all that money comes a bunch of egos.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

The high school kids getting the money don't come out of high school as college seniors. Give it two years and you'll see just how much of an effect NIL money has on the sport.

 

[rutgersguy1]

The high school kids getting the money don't come out of high school as college seniors. Give it two years and you'll see just how much of an effect NIL money has on the sport.

Ok we'll see. But what are the scenarios,? We see the same teams we see now? So then nothing is changed, status quo. Or we see some new and different teams competing, doing better and qualifying for the playoffs...so the opportunity has expanded right?

 

[AdventureHasAName]

Ok we'll see. But what are the scenarios,? We see the same teams we see now? So then nothing is changed, status quo. Or we see some new and different teams competing, doing better and qualifying for the playoffs...so the opportunity has expanded right?

You see this list? The teams on this list will essentially comprise the Top 25. At first, there will be a handful of exceptions, but over the course of a decade, those exceptions will slowly disappear and maybe one or two teams a season will crack this list. Over time, the gap between these teams and the teams who aren't on this list will grow. Simultaneously, the gap between the Top 10ish teams and the remainder of this list will also grow. Eventually (25 years or so from now?), the teams on this list (and a couple more - enough to get to 32) will break off and form their own league. The opportunity has not expanded; it's closed shut.

 

[rutgersguy1]

You see this list? The teams on this list will essentially comprise the Top 25. At first, there will be a handful of exceptions, but over the course of a decade, those exceptions will slowly disappear and maybe one or two teams a season will crack this list. Over time, the gap between these teams and the teams who aren't on this list will grow. Simultaneously, the gap between the Top 10ish teams and the remainder of this list will also grow. Eventually (25 years or so from now?), the teams on this list (and a couple more - enough to get to 32) will break off and form their own league. The opportunity has not expanded; it's closed shut.

Many teams on that list have been littering the top 25 for quite some time. That's nothing new. I'm not even sure some of them have big NIL operations either. At the top if we're seeing more teams competing for the NC than now that's a good thing and I think we'll be seeing more teams in the top 25 outside of this list as well.

In the end, limited playing time and roster spots are going to still distribute talent to some degree and portal will help that as well. This is just another line item in a list of advantages some programs have had all along, the dynamics are the same. The haves are the haves and the have nots are the have nots but opportunity has never been better than now for those lower down the status pole. There will never parity, that just has to be accepted.

 

[mdh2003]

Eventually (25 years or so from now?), the teams on this list (and a couple more - enough to get to 32) will break off and form their own league...

Maybe. But, if so, in a closed system, it’s a zero sum game. No more patsies on the schedule. You will never have all those teams winning 60+% of their games. You think the same market forces that caused that split will somehow disappear when this new Premier League is born? (Hint - it won’t, see the actual EPL). On average, half of that top 25 will be underwater. Are those fans ready for that? Are they prepared to be the next Indiana, Vanderbilt, RU? Will those tailgates be fun? Will those sellouts continue? With in-bred decades of winning and expectations, I’m gonna guess no. These schools are NOT like schools like RU or the minnows in the EPL. They won’t just be “happy to be there”. Apathy is just around the corner…

 

[yesrutgers01]

That kind of thing was probably happening before too and it happens now as well. Supposedly a Utah player was offered 1M and stayed or the BC player 300-600K and stayed. I still have trouble believing those numbers though if they stayed. Nonetheless, if a player wants to go that's their choice and who is say some might be not be looking around anyway.

For every Addison out there, I see a good number in the other direction of transfer players coming to and contributing to teams lower down the status pole. IIRC Cincy had a couple players from Alabama or UGA (or both) that contributed to their playoff team.

The key is- if it is blatant tampering- something should be done harshly. I know the schools will claim they have nothing to do with NIL offers but we also know that at least the NCAA use to punish Southern Alabama harshly every time a Bama booster got caught doing something.
but seriously- guys moving through the portal to with move up into P5 or drop down just to get playing times is ok. But they should implement something like, you transfer, you have 2 options, lose a year of either eligibility or NIL..,

 

[The RUT]

The key is- if it is blatant tampering- something should be done harshly. I know the schools will claim they have nothing to do with NIL offers but we also know that at least the NCAA use to punish Southern Alabama harshly every time a Bama booster got caught doing something.
but seriously- guys moving through the portal to with move up into P5 or drop down just to get playing times is ok. But they should implement something like, you transfer, you have 2 options, lose a year of either eligibility or NIL..,

The NCAA is dying.

 

[RUBlackout7]

I don't think anyone knows for sure and each deal might be different. From season to season, I'd say yea I wouldn't expect any multi year payments if you might not be there etc.. Within the season though, I think most of the time that's probably a done deal as long as you're on the roster or haven't done anything criminal.

I find it hard to believe that these deals don’t have language in it where players sitting the bench don’t get paid.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I find it hard to believe that these deals don’t have language in it where players sitting the bench don’t get paid.

I’m just guessing but I think sitting the bench they probably still get paid something. The NIL isn’t really tied to current playing time and contribution.

It can be a backdoor way to pay players but that’s tied to appearances and endorsements etc..not actual contribution to the team. That’s just kind of projected when using those deals but the pay itself probably isn’t tied to it explicitly.

 

[rutgersguy1]

 

[gef21]

Teams are bringing in more high profile players that they are used to, and they can not deal with controlling the players. Especially those that do not want to be controlled, and will use the threat of leaving as an excuse to do what they want.

 

[RUBlackout7]

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I wonder what Hobbs’ excuse will be now?

 

[beaced]

Ok we'll see. But what are the scenarios,? We see the same teams we see now? So then nothing is changed, status quo. Or we see some new and different teams competing, doing better and qualifying for the playoffs...so the opportunity has expanded right?

beaced will be Very pleased when RU churns out 8-10 Ws
each season

 

[brgRC90]

Lots of 4 and 5 stars players has never guaranteed success. Talent on the field is only one ingredient for wins.

 

[koleszar]

Giving 17 and 18 yr. old's $100's of thousands of dollars with no oversight, who thought anything could possibly go wrong?

 

[yesrutgers01]

Giving 17 and 18 yr. old's $100's of thousands of dollars with no oversight, who thought anything could possibly go wrong?

One would hope that these kids have a responsible person in their lives that would be able to help them out.
I know if our son had gotten 100k entering school- he would have left with that 100 plus interest. OK- minus all his parking tickets on campus.

 

[RUinBoston]

"If name, image and likeness benefits were directly tied to wins, Miami could just about punch its ticket to the College Football Playoff. Texas A&M would be close, at least according to Nick Saban's offseason estimation. Texas would truly be back."

Texas scholarship offensive linemen get $50K each - Longhorns overall committed eight pre-snap penalties last week...

Miami backup QB has a $145K 2 year deal - he accounted for 5 of their 8 turnovers last week after their starter went down

A&M currently a dumpster fire as highlighted in a separate thread


Big NIL money doesn't guarantee wins

Kinda way too soon to make this judgement, no? The first NIL recruits are only sophomores at this point.

 

[rufeelinit]

Why would anyone think success was guaranteed by having NIL money to throw around? Is it a competitive advantage? Yes. Does ensure success? No. We have seen many examples of professional sports franchise spending unwisely.

It is even more of a challenge to get right when spending on 17/18 year old HS athletes. I think eventually you will see the biggest spends on transfers who have a proven performance record at one school who are bought with a more attractive offer by a school (collective or whatever) with a big wallet. I think that would be my approach given that academics appears to mean little in this decision making process.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Kinda way too soon to make this judgement, no? The first NIL recruits are only sophomores at this point.

NIL isn’t just recruits it can be portal players. I mean that was the big worry in the other NIL thread. That your whole roster of good players would be pillaged. So sure some effects if there are any can be seen now.

Recruiting is just one part of it and who is to say all these highly recruited classes stick. Besides the fact that A&M and Texas have moved up into the echelon of Alabama, UGA, OSU etc.. at least as far as recruit rankings. On paper at least the talent pool is being distributed more at the top. I’d say it’s the same on down.

Many players want to play and will look for places that give them the best opportunity to be productive. Like I said each individual will find their own balance between playing time and NIL.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Why would anyone think success was guaranteed by having NIL money to throw around? Is it a competitive advantage? Yes. Does ensure success? No. We have seen many examples of professional sports franchise spending unwisely.

It is even more of a challenge to get right when spending on 17/18 year old HS athletes. I think eventually you will see the biggest spends on transfers who have a proven performance record at one school who are bought with a more attractive offer by a school (collective or whatever) with a big wallet. I think that would be my approach given that academics appears to mean little in this decision making process.

I agree with a lot of what you say but I won’t say biggest spend will be on transfers. Some coaches are reluctant on that. Dabo is one against using too many transfers…at least that’s what he says for now. Also coaches are wary about fit so just throwing money around at any player in the portal doesn’t necessarily work that much better than recruits. They are more college ready made for sure but it doesn’t mean they fit into your team for sure.

Plus a transfer himself is also looking for fit and productivity at least as much if not more than bells and whistles. It’s a different pitch than one used on high school recruit. Whatever avenue it is, there are no guarantees.

 

[jakeknight]

With a few exceptions NIL money will soon pivot away from unproven HS talent and be directed to current college players who have proven their worth on the field. When used in conjunction with the transfer portal the smart coaches will target players who have a track record of success and fulfill specific needs. Likely “tampering” becomes rampant, players with proven success and 2 to 3 years of eligibility will command the big dollars. NIL will can also become a painful management problem as rosters of have and have nots develop.

 

[Sir ScarletKnight]

Weirdly enough, I think what we'll see is a ton of parity outside the top ten or so teams. Scholarships will no longer matter when someone can get a full ride on NIL. But there are only so many of these types of players, meaning a lot of parity on the next rung down.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

NIL will eventually be regulated to a certain extent (same w/portal). Right now it's the wild west, and you have guys getting above market value b/c it's new, and not signing contracts to keep them in school for x years, going to be owed taxes, etc.

NIL $ will win championships, there's no denying that. It's like the old arguement, you don't win with the X's and O's you win the Jimmy's and Joes. You get the Jimmy's and Joes through NIL

Saban, Urban, Bear, Bowden, etc. could coach this team and we're not getting 8 wins. Talent isn't there. NIL $ = talent

I guarantee a lot of you would change your tune / be indifferent if we got a big money donor (s_) or coporation on board and started poaching guys from big schools, going to rose bowls, playoffs, etc.

coaches are making 10 mil a year, yet nobody cares. Players make 500k and we get bent out of shape?

We kept Caleb from ball this year b/c of NIL. Caleb makes shot to put us in final 4, what is the reaction? Screw him, he's getting $$? Or put him on MT Rushmore of Rutgers athletes?

I think we all know the answer

 

[rutgersguy1]

NIL will eventually be regulated to a certain extent (same w/portal). Right now it's the wild west, and you have guys getting above market value b/c it's new, and not signing contracts to keep them in school for x years, going to be owed taxes, etc.

NIL $ will win championships, there's no denying that. It's like the old arguement, you don't win with the X's and O's you win the Jimmy's and Joes. You get the Jimmy's and Joes through NIL

Saban, Urban, Bear, Bowden, etc. could coach this team and we're not getting 8 wins. Talent isn't there. NIL $ = talent

I guarantee a lot of you would change your tune / be indifferent if we got a big money donor (s_) or coporation on board and started poaching guys from big schools, going to rose bowls, playoffs, etc.

coaches are making 10 mil a year, yet nobody cares. Players make 500k and we get bent out of shape?

We kept Caleb from ball this year b/c of NIL. Caleb makes shot to put us in final 4, what is the reaction? Screw him, he's getting $$? Or put him on MT Rushmore of Rutgers athletes?

I think we all know the answer

I don't really have a problem with NIL or players making money from collectives. It doesn't bother me. I'm just saying the CFB world as we know it isn't ending and the sky isn't falling because of NIL/portal etc..the dynamics are pretty much the same as they've always been. If anything opportunity for lower status programs has never been better. If anything NIL is one of those potential avenues for expanded opportunity if some billionaire booster ever came along and was inclined. Portal and CFP expansion etc. are as well.

I agree with you though, if RU was a school who had the resources like A&M I think more people here wouldn't have a problem with it.

NIL is helpful to compete on a higher level but it guarantees you nothing. It's no different than all these crazy coaching contracts and big money spent on coaches. Just because you spent all that money doesn't mean you're going to win a lot or win championships. If you're not judicious and smart in how you utilize your money and identify the right people then it's just money down the drain.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Just came across this vid and I think he makes a good point. There's a reference to playing time like I've mentioned above and whether these high rated NIL players stick. There's always a motivation for playing time with all players but for ones who just come for the NIL, maybe there's an even stronger pull because there's less attachment and the reason you came to a school isn't the same if you're not getting what you want immediately.

Unlike the Utah and BC players who supposedly turned down 6 and 7 figure dollars, a NIL player with little or at least less attachment is more likely to leave if things aren't going as they envisioned. Again that's possible for all players but maybe the probability a little higher for a solely NIL motivated player. Like I said money along isn't enough if it isn't being utilized wisely.

 

[rufeelinit]

I agree with a lot of what you say but I won’t say biggest spend will be on transfers. Some coaches are reluctant on that. Dabo is one against using too many transfers…at least that’s what he says for now. Also coaches are wary about fit so just throwing money around at any player in the portal doesn’t necessarily work that much better than recruits. They are more college ready made for sure but it doesn’t mean they fit into your team for sure.

Plus a transfer himself is also looking for fit and productivity at least as much if not more than bells and whistles. It’s a different pitch than one used on high school recruit. Whatever avenue it is, there are no guarantees.

Dabo will get much more interested in transfers if he realizes that his ability to recruit 4/5* HS players is being hampered by NIL packages offered by others. He has already softened some of his previously harsh criticism ( which was legitimate) of these developments because the train has left the station. While your point may prove valid over time I would not use Clemson as an example. They will be a winner in this environment regardless given their financial support network.

 

[rutgersguy1]

They will be a winner in this environment regardless given their financial support network.

Like I said the haves will continue to be the haves and the have nots the have nots, nothing has changed on that front

 

[rufeelinit]

Just came across this vid and I think he makes a good point. There's a reference to playing time like I've mentioned above. There's always a motivation for playing time with all players but for ones who just come for the NIL, maybe there's an even stronger pull because there's less attachment and the reason you came to a school isn't the same if you're not getting what you want immediately.

Unlike the Utah and BC players who supposedly turned down 6 and 7 figure dollars, a NIL player with little or at least less attachment is more likely to leave if things aren't going as they envisioned. Again that's possible for all players but maybe the probability a little higher for a solely NIL motivated player. Like I said money along isn't enough if it isn't being utilized wisely.

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Yes playing time will be a consideration ,and RU may be the beneficiary of some of these situations where guys thought they would flourish at a big time program and then do not advance on the depth chart and look for opportunities to play elsewhere. These are "rebound"guys who may just not be as good as thought coming out of HS. While PT will be there primary consideration the second time around, they will still expect a more modest package, which will get competitively bid up given this becoming a primary way of building a roster by many teams. Thus we are likely to get the Temple and Louisiana Tech transfers more so that kids from other p-5 schools. We will get some of those but not the most highly sought after ones.

What concerns me is our ability to retain those going in the other direction. The Athletic just did theirhalf season all transfer team and many (not all) the types of situations that I can see us being on the losing end of. Interestingly Raquon O'Neill who went to UCLA is on the team at left tackle after Jackson went to OSU a few years ago and is now playing pro ball. And that was before NIL.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Yes playing time will be a consideration ,and RU may be the beneficiary of some of these situations where guys thought they would flourish at a big time program and then do not advance on the depth chart and look for opportunities to play elsewhere. These are "rebound"guys who may just not be as good as thought coming out of HS. While PT will be there primary consideration the second time around, they will still expect a more modest package, which will get competitively bid up given this becoming a primary way of building a roster by many teams. Thus we are likely to get the Temple and Louisiana Tech transfers more so that kids from other p-5 schools. We will get some of those but not the most highly sought after ones.

What concerns me is our ability to retain those going in the other direction. The Athletic just did theirhalf season all transfer team and many (not all) the types of situations that I can see us being on the losing end of. Interestingly Raquon O'Neill who went to UCLA is on the team at left tackle after Jackson went to OSU a few years ago and is now playing pro ball. And that was before NIL.

At least half of the Athletic all transfer team are to "regular" status programs not only the Alabamas, USCs etc..Also looking at where they came from I'd say about 3 or so came from a low status P5 program to high status P5 one. The rest were to a program on par P5 status, coming from a high P5 to lower P5 or from the G5/FCS up to the P5. I still think the portal is a good place to get players and rosters won't be pillaged. You could lose some but you'll also get some that can contribute too.

If any kind of roster might be pillaged (outside of firing/scandal), I wonder if it might not be a NIL all star roster like mentioned above that doesn't have any attachment beyond the money. So if they're not getting what they want right away they may be more likely to leave en masse because of the mercenary nature of their enlisting. Even then I'm not so sure but if any thing maybe it's that kind of roster makeup more than a "normal" one.

 

[brgRC90]

NIL $ will win championships, there's no denying that. It's like the old arguement, you don't win with the X's and O's you win the Jimmy's and Joes. You get the Jimmy's and Joes through NIL

And yet this thread starts with the observation that some teams filled with 4 and 5 star talent stink.

 

[yesrutgers01]

I think with the current portal and NIL structures- NIL will really come into play for trying to keep players teams like Rutgers may have developed. The teams buying HS players will either see return in 2-3 years or they will find themselves in a revolving door of players they keep trying to buy.

Also wonder- what if a kid in HS gets offered a NIL and they don't see the field- will they see the year 2 of the NIL pulled and given to the next HS top player?