Big Ten Tournament Seeding Probabilities by Matt Hackman (See Chart) - March 3, 2023

[RCBeta79]

Big Ten Tournament Seeding Probabilities by Matt Hackman (See Chart) - March 3, 2023
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/latest-odds-probabilities-msu-basketball-184823317.html

Rutgers probability of winning against Northwestern on Sunday is 62%.

 

[RUBlackout]

Big Ten Tournament Seeding Probabilities by Matt Hackman (See Chart) - March 3, 2023
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/latest-odds-probabilities-msu-basketball-184823317.html

Rutgers probability of winning against Northwestern on Sunday is 62%.

Our probability of winning up 10 with 90secs left was something like 98%

 

[RUtrumpet92]

With a loss, we would be the #9 seed regardless of any other results.

If we win, we can be anywhere from #5 to #8 based on other results. Michigan State is ahead of us if they defeat Ohio State (chart predicts this is 68% likely), and behind us if they lose. (Range would be #6-8 or #5-7). Still too many combos to type out all of them. I'm going to be rooting for Indiana and Minnesota to weaken our possible bubble competition.

 

[RUChoppin]

Any win probability is going to be based on the full season's worth of metrics, and have to be taken with a grain of salt with our current rotation.

 

[goru7]

With a loss, we would be the #9 seed regardless of any other results.

If we win, we can be anywhere from #5 to #8 based on other results. Michigan State is ahead of us if they defeat Ohio State (chart predicts this is 68% likely), and behind us if they lose. (Range would be #6-8 or #5-7). Still too many combos to type out all of them. I'm going to be rooting for Indiana and Minnesota to weaken our possible

There is 1 plausible scenario where we can still get double bye, I think.
It requiresRU to win , Ohio state to beat MSU, Purdue to beat Illinois , Penn State to beat Maryland , Michigan to beat Indiana and Iowa to beat Nebraska . Iowa is the 2 , Michigan the 3 as they are both 12-8. We are 11-9 in a pod with NW beat 2x, Maryland beat 1x , Indiana split 1–1and Illinois 0-1. We would be 4-2. Indiana and Illinois under 500. Not sure but just checked Maryland would be 3-1. Damn. I guess they would get it and we would be the 5. But that means we get Maryland /Purdue route if we can beat Wisconsin or Nebraska as the 12. Not a bad route.

 

[Yeah Baby]

Our probability of winning up 10 with 90secs left was something like 98%

What was the probability coming back from down 19 at PSU?

 

[new jersey1]

There is 1 plausible scenario where we can still get double bye, I think.
It requiresRU to win , Ohio state to beat MSU, Purdue to beat Illinois , Penn State to beat Maryland , Michigan to beat Indiana and Iowa to beat Nebraska . Iowa is the 2 , Michigan the 3 as they are both 12-8. We are 11-9 in a pod with NW beat 2x, Maryland beat 1x , Indiana split 1–1and Illinois 0-1. We would be 4-2. Indiana and Illinois under 500. Not sure but just checked Maryland would be 3-1. Damn. I guess they would get it and we would be the 5. But that means we get Maryland /Purdue route if we can beat Wisconsin or Nebraska as the 12. Not a bad route.

Just ran it myself. You are correct with us losing the tiebreaker to MD in that scenario. Would be good to get to 5 or 6 so we could play someone who played on day 1.

 

[new jersey1]

It’s probably best for us to have MSU win v. OSU if that means they get into Quad 1. Current NET is 31.

 

[RUBlackout]

Mich State Wins....could potentially help us with get another Q1 win (along with SHU blowout could move into Q2 which would be very nice and remove some of the stain on our resume)

That said....

Im rooting for Michigan, Iowa, Whisky, Maryland, Rutgers, and Purdue

Give us the 6th Seed to play winner of PSU/Minny and then round 3 against Maryland potentially

 

[bac2therac]

if Michigan wins, Indiana will drop to a Q2 win

 

[RCBeta79]

There is 1 plausible scenario where we can still get double bye, I think.
It requiresRU to win , Ohio state to beat MSU, Purdue to beat Illinois , Penn State to beat Maryland , Michigan to beat Indiana and Iowa to beat Nebraska . Iowa is the 2 , Michigan the 3 as they are both 12-8. We are 11-9 in a pod with NW beat 2x, Maryland beat 1x , Indiana split 1–1and Illinois 0-1. We would be 4-2. Indiana and Illinois under 500. Not sure but just checked Maryland would be 3-1. Damn. I guess they would get it and we would be the 5. But that means we get Maryland /Purdue route if we can beat Wisconsin or Nebraska as the 12. Not a bad route.

Good analysis.
Update: Michigan State beat Ohio State today.

 

[RCBeta79]

if Michigan wins, Indiana will drop to a Q2 win

Michigan plays at Indiana (senior day)....Indiana should be favored.

 

[RUBlackout]

if Michigan wins, Indiana will drop to a Q2 win

Lets root for Indiana and PSU in that scenario then...then we get winner of Whisky/MInny followed by Indiana

 

[wheezer]

What was the probability coming back from down 19 at PSU?

St John’s was losing to Marquette 30-11, last I checked it was a three point game

Marquette will probably win, probably pull away
But that’s basketball

 

[fluoxetine]

What was the probability coming back from down 19 at PSU?

A lot more than the probability of losing up 19 with 1 minute.

(3.1% vs 0.2% per Torvik, but not sure how well calibrated the in game win probability is)