I had a bit of free time today and deep dived our Conference results from the Pikiell years. To begin in 2016-17, Rutgers won THREE B1G games by a total of SIX points to vs T12 Neb by1, @T12 PSU by2 and vs 9th Illinois by 3, we faced T2nd UW(0-2), T2nd Md (0-2), T5th NW(0-2), T5th Iowa(0-2), T12th PSU(1-1). I looked at what Rutgers record is against each of the 13 individual teams and how they stand each year in the B1G over the last 4 years have cleared up a lot of the misconceptions for me. I categorized each of the other 13 teams by bad matchup(edge in coaching/talent or both, 0-1,0-2 over 2 years), even matchup home/road(1-0,1-1 or 1-1,0-1 over 2 years) or good matchup(1-0,2-0 over 2 years)/winning strategy. There were 4 total outlier results in 78 games(1 positive, 3 negative) over 4 years, none in 2019-20, like the WTF home loss by Schiano.
Quick analysis,
2017-19 6 bad matchups(1-17) 7 even matchups(8-11) 0 good (0-0)
2019-21 3 bad matchups(0-9) 5 even matchups(7-9) 5 good (12-0) 3 left
I'll explain the conclusion more further down but I need to use 2019-21 years first to reach the conclusions for the 2017-19 years.
2019-20 8th
20-11 (11-9) 9-2 OOC NET 30
Q1 4-9 Q2 5-1 Q3 3-1 Q4 7-0
H9-1 R2-8
Given recent history vs final 3 opponents, there is enough pride and talent on this team and Coach Pike has the winning strategy for all three
Vs Indiana, 4Ws in last 5(3 straight HWs)
Vs Nebraska 2Ws, 3 of 4, B1G 1-12, 11 gm in 23 days, little practice in between
Vs Minnesota 2Ws, 4 of 5, Minnesota has lost 6 of 8, Kalscheur out, Robbins "severe" ankle sprain, Minn vs NW, @Neb, @PSU before final game.
2020-21 T8th
12-9(8-9) 4-0 OOC NET 31
If we win all 3, 15-9(11-9) and Minnesota stays above 75.
Projected Q1 5-8 Q2 4-1 Q3 4-0 Q4 2-0
H6-4 R5-5
Which will be fine for about a 6 seed going into the B1G tourny.
2019-20 B1G standings
#18 Maryland 14-6(24-7) 1-1 HW RL
#7 MSU 14-6(22-9) 0-1 RL
#23 Wisconsin 14-6(21-10) 1-1 HW RL
#39 Illinois 13-7(20-10) 1-1 HW RL
#16 OSU 11-9(20-10) 0-1 RL
#35 PSU 11-9(21-10) 1-1 HW
#34 Iowa 11-9(20-11) 0-1 RL
#30 Rutgers 11-9(20-11)
#24 Michigan 10-10(19-12) 0-2 HL RL
#32 Purdue 9-11(16-15) 2-0 HW RW
#56 Indiana 9-11(20-12) 1-0 HW
#42 Minnesota 8-12(15-16) 1-0 HW
#164 Northwestern 3-17(8-23) 1-0 HW
#199 Nebraska 2-18(7-25) 2-0 HW RW
2020-21 current B1G standings
#3 Michigan 11-1(16-1) 0-1 RL
#4 Illinois 12-3(16-5) 1-0 HW
#7 OSU 12-5(18-5) 0-2 HL RL
#5 Iowa 11-5(17-6) 0-2 HL RL
#28 Purdue 10-6(15-8) 1-0 HW
#20 Wisconsin 10-7(16-8) 0-1 HL
#30 Maryland 8-9(14-10) 1-1 HL RW
#31 Rutgers 8-9(12-9)
#52 Indiana 7-8(12-10) 1-0(2-0) H? RW
#60 Minnesota 6-10(13-10) 1-0(2-0) HW R?
#81 MSU 5-9(11-9) 1-1 HW RL
#41 PSU 4-11(7-12) 0-1 RL
#98 Northwestern 3-13(5-14) 2-0 HW Rw
#147 Nebraska 1-12(4-15) (1-0) R?
Last 2 years record by opponent, UM 0-3, Ill 2-1, OSU 0-3, Iowa 0-3, Purdue 3-0, Wisc. 1-2, Md 2-2, Indy 2-0(3-0?), Minn 2-0(3-0?), MSU 1-2, PSU 1-2, NW 3-0, Neb 2-0(3-0?). 3 teams we didn't matchup well 0-9(UM, OSU, Iowa), 5 teams even matchup 7-9(Ill, Wisconsin, Md, MSU, PSU), 1 outlier Home loss Vs 6th place Wisconsin, 2020-21. 5 teams good matchup 12-0, 15-0?(Purdue, Indiana, Minn, NW, Neb).
By comparison 2 years prior,
2017-18 14th (3-15) H 3-6 R 0-9, wins Vs 9th Wisc, vs T11 Iowa, vs 10th NW
1-7(MSU 0-2, PU 0-2, OSU 0-2, @UM 0-1, Neb 0-2, @PSU 0-1, vs IU 0-1) 0-11
8-13(@ MD 0-1, UW 1-0, NW 1-0, @Minn 0-1, UofI 0-2, Iowa 1-0) 3-4
*We played 4 of top 5 teams twice that year* only other was T11th Illinois
In 2018-19 12th (7-13) H 4-6 R 3-7(NW,PSU,Iowa)
1-7(MSU 0-2, @PU 0-1, vs UM 0-1, @UW 0-1, Vs Md 0-1, Iowa 1-1, Minn 1-1) 2-8
8-13(OSU 1-1, IU 1-1, PSU 1-1, @UofI 0-1, vs Neb 1-0, NW 1-1) 5-5
2017-19, MSU 0-4, PU 0-3, UM 0-2, UW 1-1, Md 0-2, Iowa 2-1, Minn 1-2, OSU 1-3, IU 1-2, PSU 1-2, UI 0-3, Neb 1-2, NW 2-1. 6 teams bad matchup 1-17(MSU, PU, UM, Md, UI, OSU), OSU, only positive outlier W, to bad matchup of a top7 team that finished 8th,and 7 teams fall in the even matchup 8-11 (UW, Iowa, Minn, IU, PSU, Neb, NW) with 2 outlier losses, home to 7th place Indiana(17-18), and vs 5th place Maryland(18-19). 0 good matchups.
2016-17 1-7 team 0-11
2017-18 1-7 teams 0-11
2018-19 1-7 teams 2-8
2019-20 1-7 teams 4-7
2020-21 1-7 teams 3-7, as of today
2016-17 8-13 teams 3-4
2017-18 8-13 teams 3-4
2018-19 8-13 teams 5-5
2019-20 8-13 teams 7-2
2020-21 8-13 teams 5-2(3 left, 8-2?) As of today
It will be an even higher winning% once Pike figures out the other 8 teams more consistently. He has 5 under his belt in the last 3 years alone.
If you take a look at where our team vs other team have reposition themselves by 2 year comparisons, the 6 bad matchups 2017-19 are down to 2 in 2019-21, UM and OSU have stayed bad matchups, Illinois, MSU, and Maryland have become more an even matchup and we have turned Purdue(3-0) to good matchup now. Iowa is the only team that has moved up from even to bad matchup. Despite the outlier home loss, Wisc is still an even matchup with PSU, but Indiana(2-0), Minnesota(2-0), Nebraska(2-0) and NW(3-0) are all good coaching matchups Pikiell has a winning formula. To be an elite team in this league, Coach Pikiell has to get at least 7 teams on the good matchup scale, because every coach will always have at least 1 coach in conference that has your number, ex. Indiana over Iowa, 6Ws out of 8, other 2 losses 5 or less.
2017-19, MSU and OSU was Back2Back x2, 2019-2021, Md Back2Back x2. Not sure if it changes again but in 2021-22, I'm guessing it will still be Md(E), along with UM(B), Illinois(E), Purdue(G), Wisconsin(E), PSU(E), and Nebraska(G) x2, Home games MSU(E), OSU(B), Iowa(B) Road- Indiana(G), Minnesota(G), NW(G). The fall out will be interesting in the off season on who stays and goes from the free year, but the schedule looks to be very Rutgers friendly. It will really determine who will be the top teams and who isn't next year. Hope this helps settle things down a bit or help fans off the ledge.
Quick analysis,
2017-19 6 bad matchups(1-17) 7 even matchups(8-11) 0 good (0-0)
2019-21 3 bad matchups(0-9) 5 even matchups(7-9) 5 good (12-0) 3 left
I'll explain the conclusion more further down but I need to use 2019-21 years first to reach the conclusions for the 2017-19 years.
2019-20 8th
20-11 (11-9) 9-2 OOC NET 30
Q1 4-9 Q2 5-1 Q3 3-1 Q4 7-0
H9-1 R2-8
Given recent history vs final 3 opponents, there is enough pride and talent on this team and Coach Pike has the winning strategy for all three
Vs Indiana, 4Ws in last 5(3 straight HWs)
Vs Nebraska 2Ws, 3 of 4, B1G 1-12, 11 gm in 23 days, little practice in between
Vs Minnesota 2Ws, 4 of 5, Minnesota has lost 6 of 8, Kalscheur out, Robbins "severe" ankle sprain, Minn vs NW, @Neb, @PSU before final game.
2020-21 T8th
12-9(8-9) 4-0 OOC NET 31
If we win all 3, 15-9(11-9) and Minnesota stays above 75.
Projected Q1 5-8 Q2 4-1 Q3 4-0 Q4 2-0
H6-4 R5-5
Which will be fine for about a 6 seed going into the B1G tourny.
2019-20 B1G standings
#18 Maryland 14-6(24-7) 1-1 HW RL
#7 MSU 14-6(22-9) 0-1 RL
#23 Wisconsin 14-6(21-10) 1-1 HW RL
#39 Illinois 13-7(20-10) 1-1 HW RL
#16 OSU 11-9(20-10) 0-1 RL
#35 PSU 11-9(21-10) 1-1 HW
#34 Iowa 11-9(20-11) 0-1 RL
#30 Rutgers 11-9(20-11)
#24 Michigan 10-10(19-12) 0-2 HL RL
#32 Purdue 9-11(16-15) 2-0 HW RW
#56 Indiana 9-11(20-12) 1-0 HW
#42 Minnesota 8-12(15-16) 1-0 HW
#164 Northwestern 3-17(8-23) 1-0 HW
#199 Nebraska 2-18(7-25) 2-0 HW RW
2020-21 current B1G standings
#3 Michigan 11-1(16-1) 0-1 RL
#4 Illinois 12-3(16-5) 1-0 HW
#7 OSU 12-5(18-5) 0-2 HL RL
#5 Iowa 11-5(17-6) 0-2 HL RL
#28 Purdue 10-6(15-8) 1-0 HW
#20 Wisconsin 10-7(16-8) 0-1 HL
#30 Maryland 8-9(14-10) 1-1 HL RW
#31 Rutgers 8-9(12-9)
#52 Indiana 7-8(12-10) 1-0(2-0) H? RW
#60 Minnesota 6-10(13-10) 1-0(2-0) HW R?
#81 MSU 5-9(11-9) 1-1 HW RL
#41 PSU 4-11(7-12) 0-1 RL
#98 Northwestern 3-13(5-14) 2-0 HW Rw
#147 Nebraska 1-12(4-15) (1-0) R?
Last 2 years record by opponent, UM 0-3, Ill 2-1, OSU 0-3, Iowa 0-3, Purdue 3-0, Wisc. 1-2, Md 2-2, Indy 2-0(3-0?), Minn 2-0(3-0?), MSU 1-2, PSU 1-2, NW 3-0, Neb 2-0(3-0?). 3 teams we didn't matchup well 0-9(UM, OSU, Iowa), 5 teams even matchup 7-9(Ill, Wisconsin, Md, MSU, PSU), 1 outlier Home loss Vs 6th place Wisconsin, 2020-21. 5 teams good matchup 12-0, 15-0?(Purdue, Indiana, Minn, NW, Neb).
By comparison 2 years prior,
2017-18 14th (3-15) H 3-6 R 0-9, wins Vs 9th Wisc, vs T11 Iowa, vs 10th NW
1-7(MSU 0-2, PU 0-2, OSU 0-2, @UM 0-1, Neb 0-2, @PSU 0-1, vs IU 0-1) 0-11
8-13(@ MD 0-1, UW 1-0, NW 1-0, @Minn 0-1, UofI 0-2, Iowa 1-0) 3-4
*We played 4 of top 5 teams twice that year* only other was T11th Illinois
In 2018-19 12th (7-13) H 4-6 R 3-7(NW,PSU,Iowa)
1-7(MSU 0-2, @PU 0-1, vs UM 0-1, @UW 0-1, Vs Md 0-1, Iowa 1-1, Minn 1-1) 2-8
8-13(OSU 1-1, IU 1-1, PSU 1-1, @UofI 0-1, vs Neb 1-0, NW 1-1) 5-5
2017-19, MSU 0-4, PU 0-3, UM 0-2, UW 1-1, Md 0-2, Iowa 2-1, Minn 1-2, OSU 1-3, IU 1-2, PSU 1-2, UI 0-3, Neb 1-2, NW 2-1. 6 teams bad matchup 1-17(MSU, PU, UM, Md, UI, OSU), OSU, only positive outlier W, to bad matchup of a top7 team that finished 8th,and 7 teams fall in the even matchup 8-11 (UW, Iowa, Minn, IU, PSU, Neb, NW) with 2 outlier losses, home to 7th place Indiana(17-18), and vs 5th place Maryland(18-19). 0 good matchups.
2016-17 1-7 team 0-11
2017-18 1-7 teams 0-11
2018-19 1-7 teams 2-8
2019-20 1-7 teams 4-7
2020-21 1-7 teams 3-7, as of today
2016-17 8-13 teams 3-4
2017-18 8-13 teams 3-4
2018-19 8-13 teams 5-5
2019-20 8-13 teams 7-2
2020-21 8-13 teams 5-2(3 left, 8-2?) As of today
It will be an even higher winning% once Pike figures out the other 8 teams more consistently. He has 5 under his belt in the last 3 years alone.
If you take a look at where our team vs other team have reposition themselves by 2 year comparisons, the 6 bad matchups 2017-19 are down to 2 in 2019-21, UM and OSU have stayed bad matchups, Illinois, MSU, and Maryland have become more an even matchup and we have turned Purdue(3-0) to good matchup now. Iowa is the only team that has moved up from even to bad matchup. Despite the outlier home loss, Wisc is still an even matchup with PSU, but Indiana(2-0), Minnesota(2-0), Nebraska(2-0) and NW(3-0) are all good coaching matchups Pikiell has a winning formula. To be an elite team in this league, Coach Pikiell has to get at least 7 teams on the good matchup scale, because every coach will always have at least 1 coach in conference that has your number, ex. Indiana over Iowa, 6Ws out of 8, other 2 losses 5 or less.
2017-19, MSU and OSU was Back2Back x2, 2019-2021, Md Back2Back x2. Not sure if it changes again but in 2021-22, I'm guessing it will still be Md(E), along with UM(B), Illinois(E), Purdue(G), Wisconsin(E), PSU(E), and Nebraska(G) x2, Home games MSU(E), OSU(B), Iowa(B) Road- Indiana(G), Minnesota(G), NW(G). The fall out will be interesting in the off season on who stays and goes from the free year, but the schedule looks to be very Rutgers friendly. It will really determine who will be the top teams and who isn't next year. Hope this helps settle things down a bit or help fans off the ledge.
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