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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Posting this on this thread for a quicker response....Help clear this conflicting info up, I've read USA banned travel from China and this is a major reason why we are in a better position vs. Italy, who did not ban travel. First article is Fortune noting China response to USA ban on travel as "overreaction". The second article from Forbes notes Italy did ban travel from China, actually before the United States did...which is it.

"When the coronavirus first cropped up in earnest in January, countries around the world—from the United States to Australia to Russia—scrambled to close their borders to travelers from China. Beijing criticized such moves at the time. "Some countries, the U.S. in particular, have inappropriately overreacted," a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry said of the travel restrictions in early February. But now the tables have turned. As China sees its coronavirus caseload decline, officials are taking steps to reduce the risk of travelers to China reintroducing the virus."
https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/china-coronavirus-travel-restrictions/

"Italy imposed a ban on flights from China on 31 January, immediately after a Chinese couple in Rome tested positive for the virus. The U.S. began to restrict flights from China four days later. But while Italy enacted a full ban, the U.S. policy was only a restriction, with wide exemptions."
https://www.forbes.com/sites/daveke...ina-before-americait-didnt-work/#646a921c481b
Thats kind of the point - it doesn't matter what country banned travel when, because once there's cases within your boarders, the goose is loose.
 
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Thats kind of the point - it doesn't matter what country banned travel when, because once there's cases within your boarders, the goose is loose.

I watched Hannity last night and he glorified Trump for banning China travel. I thought this was the gamechanger vs. Italy but its not, you're right, if you have cases before the travel ban it doesnt matter. And the chart someone posted earlier shows US same infection path as Italy...
 
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the numbers dont add up...if they have 100K now then they had to have almost 20K a week ago....yet where are the deaths....that rate certainly isnt adding up is it...and where is the flood of people in the hospitals with symptoms...look at what they are reporting...and yes I am taking into consideration lag time. Shouldnt the deaths be start to trinkle in..what about the just those starting to get sick...they are reporting.

they have 5 confirmed cases, 52 with symptoms or exposure awaiting test results and 333 under supervision referred for monitoring
You're missing the point. People in Ohio are getting it through normal social interactions - no exposure to sick people or international travel. For that to be true, the virus must exist in the population that hasn't been officially diagnosed (aside from fact there's no testing), and that epidemiologically speaking, usually requires a 1% infection rate. Hence the 100k comment. Don't know where the 1% figure is from stat wise but I don't disagree with the statement.
 
You're missing the point. People in Ohio are getting it through normal social interactions - no exposure to sick people or international travel. For that to be true, the virus must exist in the population that hasn't been officially diagnosed (aside from fact there's no testing), and that epidemiologically speaking, usually requires a 1% infection rate. Hence the 100k comment. Don't know where the 1% figure is from stat wise but I don't disagree with the statement.

Again, this isn't ****ing hard. LISTEN to health professionals.
 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/experi...-11584094955?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f

Summary:

14 Americans with an average age of 75 who contracted SARS-CoV-2 infection on the Diamond Princess cruise ship were treated with the experimental drug, Remdesivir at hospitals in Japan.

After two weeks, all survived and more than half recovered. Five Americans remain critically ill. A total of 17 patients received daily intravenous treatment for 10 days.

The ship was placed under two-week quarantine on February 5 after docking in Yokohama. More than 700 passengers and crew tested positive. Eight died.

Remdesivir (GS-5734), a nucleotide prodrug that blocks a key enzyme needed for viral replication, was developed for Ebola virus infection.
 
Trump administration blocks states from using Medicaid to respond to coronavirus crisis

https://www.latimes.com/politics/st...tates-use-medicaid-respond-coronavirus-crisis

Trump reportedly rejected aggressive coronavirus testing in hopes it would help his re-election

https://theweek.com/speedreads/9020...ive-coronavirus-testing-hopes-help-reelection

Jay - while I agree that Trump has been a big part of the problem in this epidemic (hell, I started a separate thread on just that last night, which was moved to the CE board), I'd ask you and others to limit the Trump posts in this thread or only post the ones specifically related to combating the epidemic here, as there are tons of other threads for that and we've been trying to keep this one on point with regard to the science of the virus and the epidemiology/logistics/preparedness/etc. of the response. Otherwise, this thread, which I think is supplying useful info to people on the situation, will get moved to the CE board due to partisan bickering on both sides. Thanks.
 
https://www.genengnews.com/a-lists/how-to-conquer-coronavirus-top-35-treatments-in-development/

List of therapies being developed for COVID-19. As mentioned in my prior posts, Remdesivir is the most advanced with data expected in April. Next is Keletra in July.

Excerpt: "The Health Commission of Henan Province announced January 31 that three confirmed cases of patients diagnosed with new coronavirus infections recovered after taking Kaletra, a combination of ritonavir and lopinavir. As of that date, nucleic acid testing of more than 20 confirmed cases of patients infected with new coronavirus, admitted to hospitals in Zhejiang Province turned negative after taking Kaletra, according to Ascletis Pharma, which is evaluating a combination therapy of its own candidates ASC09 and ritonavir."

One encouraging note based on multiple sources is that next to Remdesivir (and recently Kaletra), the other drug that is being used in China that appears to be showing very good efficacy is old malaria drug Chloroquin.

Stay vigilant - we can beat this virus.
 
Trump fans: dOn'T pOlItIcIzE tHiS

Meanwhile, Trump:

where are the verifiable facts in that story?

we know Azar was replaced with Pence on a team to handle this. we know Azar has ties to big pharma. what we do not know is why the CDC refused to use the WHO test. To me, that is the big question.

You find that out and you will know who to blame for not having early and wider testing.

The OP tweets from stories blaming Trump and referencing the same single source.. my guess is this all stems from Azar covering his ass for mishandling this.
 
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https://www.genengnews.com/a-lists/how-to-conquer-coronavirus-top-35-treatments-in-development/

List of therapies being developed for COVID-19. As mentioned in my prior posts, Remdesivir is the most advanced with data expected in April. Next is Keletra in July.

Excerpt: "The Health Commission of Henan Province announced January 31 that three confirmed cases of patients diagnosed with new coronavirus infections recovered after taking Kaletra, a combination of ritonavir and lopinavir. As of that date, nucleic acid testing of more than 20 confirmed cases of patients infected with new coronavirus, admitted to hospitals in Zhejiang Province turned negative after taking Kaletra, according to Ascletis Pharma, which is evaluating a combination therapy of its own candidates ASC09 and ritonavir."

One encouraging note based on multiple sources is that next to Remdesivir (and recently Kaletra), the other drug that is being used in China that appears to be showing very good efficacy is old malaria drug Chloroquin.

Stay vigilant - we can beat this virus.
This is a new virus and some of these drugs are relatively new but have any of these antivirals and drugs ever been thought of to be used in the most severe cases of "normal" flu?
 
I was just watching today's press conference by Gov Cuomo where they announced the opening of a drive-thru testing facility in New Rochelle. I'm sure many hate the guy (for obvious reasons) and I have mixed opinions of him and his performance. But I think he's delivering a consistent and relatively reassuring message about the virus. A few times he's compared it to ebola and seasonal flu which I don't think is really relevant. But he's not sugar-coating it - today he said this will be a long process to get through, probably 6 months or more (as opposed to someone else saying the cases will go to zero in a few weeks) but at the same time provides a reassuring message that "we will get through this". It may all be BS but man, it would be nice to have that kind of realistic and yet reassuring message coming from the oval office.
 
t
I already posted this and commended him for it. I mean it only came four days after this:



But I mean, life comes at you fast. Or in this case, somewhat quickly after months of suppressing it.


here is the deal..you and some others and the msm harping on Trump and what he did wrong or what he posted 2-3 weeks..that is irrelevant to what we are dealing with now. We hope the message and actions become pointed. We dont need analysis, call for him to resign which are just stupid but I see them all over from the tds sufferers. We need him and hopefully others to make the right decision and lead. MSM needs to wake the **** up and use their mouthpiece to inform the public not to divide them further. Everyone including Trump needs to step the **** up and put their differences aside
 
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Interesting but somewhat technical discussion from a Seattle doctor describing what they have been seeing in the coronavirus patients.



Here is a translated version by a med student with most of the medical jargon replaced by more understandable terms.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Zx3WVpp8y-SMLrxg3tckbF5PmcV0FCtuyWuUiFVYiUo/preview


question...how do these numbers compare to say the overall regular flu. what percentage of people who catch the flu get hospitalized at any point. I do realize that corona is certainly more potent but just want to see the numbers compared


  • They believe the data from China indicating that 80% of patients are mildly ill (can stay home and treat themselves like they would for any flu-like illness), 14% require hospital care (maybe oxygen requirement, etc) and 6-8% are critically ill (need to be intubated/on a breathing machine or are having other life-threatening symptoms due to the virus).
 
bac, and I say this with all sincerity. He has failed. Not only on just this, but on numerous things. While we do need to come together to figure out the best way forward, the facts remain that his decisions and his administration have made this worse. There's no arguing this, and the markets and public opinion agree.

We need leaders, and we need better ones.
 
bac, and I say this with all sincerity. He has failed. Not only on just this, but on numerous things. While we do need to come together to figure out the best way forward, the facts remain that his decisions and his administration have made this worse. There's no arguing this, and the markets and public opinion agree.

We need leaders, and we need better ones.


um sorry that is your opinion, he has failed on numerous things....half the country disagrees with you but carry on thinking you are right...we are all entitled to our opinions including you but sorry do not make declarative statements and leave the politics out of the thread
 
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I was just watching today's press conference by Gov Cuomo where they announced the opening of a drive-thru testing facility in New Rochelle. I'm sure many hate the guy (for obvious reasons) and I have mixed opinions of him and his performance. But I think he's delivering a consistent and relatively reassuring message about the virus. A few times he's compared it to ebola and seasonal flu which I don't think is really relevant. But he's not sugar-coating it - today he said this will be a long process to get through, probably 6 months or more (as opposed to someone else saying the cases will go to zero in a few weeks) but at the same time provides a reassuring message that "we will get through this". It may all be BS but man, it would be nice to have that kind of realistic and yet reassuring message coming from the oval office.

Saw the presser also. We're starting to see some good signs from the states (like NY starting up a drive thru testing station) and social distancing has finally taken off, so maybe we can at least slow things down and avoid the worst peak of the epidemic overwhelming the health care system. Who knows at this point.

And maybe Merkel and some others will end up being right and over time we'll all be exposed to the virus with most of us getting it (and that we can't truly stop it now, despite some encouraging signs from Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea that containment is possible (not sure I believe the China numbers showing containment), but at the very least if we have aggressive testing and social distancing, we have a shot at not overwhelming the capacity of our underprepared (for this) health care system. We'll see.
 
um sorry that is your opinion, he has failed on numerous things....half the country disagrees with you but carry on thinking you are right...we are all entitled to our opinions including you but sorry do not make declarative statements and leave the politics out of the thread

Idiot brings up politics and then asks folks not to bring up politics. SMH. Always a Leftist.
 
"Things I don't agree with are biased!"

It still amazes me that 99% of the people screaming 'don't bring politics into this!' are Trump supporters.

The lady doth protest too much, me thinks.


Sorry, once you corrupt things that used to maybe in the past be impartial you can no longer quote them as fact. Ya reap what you sow, comrade.

Bye Jay.
 
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Saw the presser also. We're starting to see some good signs from the states (like NY starting up a drive thru testing station) and social distancing has finally taken off, so maybe we can at least slow things down and avoid the worst peak of the epidemic overwhelming the health care system. Who knows at this point.

And maybe Merkel and some others will end up being right and over time we'll all be exposed to the virus with most of us getting it (and that we can't truly stop it now, despite some encouraging signs from Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea that containment is possible (not sure I believe the China numbers showing containment), but at the very least if we have aggressive testing and social distancing, we have a shot at not overwhelming the capacity of our underprepared (for this) health care system. We'll see.
Well Xi Jinping went into Wuhan recently and I’m guessing he wouldn’t do that unless it was relatively contained.
 
where are the verifiable facts in that story?

we know Azar was replaced with Pence on a team to handle this. we know Azar has ties to big pharma. what we do not know is why the CDC refused to use the WHO test. To me, that is the big question.

You find that out and you will know who to blame for not having early and wider testing.

The OP tweets from stories blaming Trump and referencing the same single source.. my guess is this all stems from Azar covering his ass for mishandling this.

We have an entire entrenched Administrative State that has undermined the President's policies at every turn and has tried to illegally remove him from office but he's personally responsible for actions taken by a apparatchik in the Leftist captured CDC. LOL.

Now he's criticized for not suspending travel earlier due to a threat of a virus by the same people who criticized him for too quickly suspending travel when it came to border security.

The same folks who want Open Borders are criticizing the President for not closing the borders.

Reflect on that for a second. And shame on ya'll for not being even the slightest bit fair.
 
bac, and I say this with all sincerity. He has failed. Not only on just this, but on numerous things. While we do need to come together to figure out the best way forward, the facts remain that his decisions and his administration have made this worse. There's no arguing this, and the markets and public opinion agree.

We need leaders, and we need better ones.
One more time and I am banning you from this thread. Please do not reply to this or quote this post. Keep the politics out of it. You have been warned. If you wish to discuss this take it up via PM with me, Richie or Tango Two.
 
This is a new virus and some of these drugs are relatively new but have any of these antivirals and drugs ever been thought of to be used in the most severe cases of "normal" flu?

The problem with the "normal" flu is just that, every year it's never normal. Influenza under goes HA antigenic drift which makes it difficult for our own immune system to combat. Every year, it's a different strain. I'm sure some of these drugs have been used (or tried) for dire flu patients. But there's never a continuity year over year because of the virus' ability to be different each year.

The influenza virus is no joke. It's just that we've developed immunity to it. But in the first influenza pandemic (dubbed the "Spanish flu"), it killed 50% of the world's population. To date, according to WHO estimates, influenza kills 650,000 people annually.
 
The problem with the "normal" flu is just that, every year it's never normal. Influenza under goes HA antigenic drift which makes it difficult for our own immune system to combat. Every year, it's a different strain. I'm sure some of these drugs have been used (or tried) for dire flu patients. But there's never a continuity year over year because of the virus' ability to be different each year.

The influenza virus is no joke. It's just that we've developed immunity to it. But in the first influenza pandemic (dubbed the "Spanish flu"), it killed 50% of the world's population. To date, according to WHO estimates, influenza kills 650,000 people annually.
The 1918 pandemic did not kill 50% of the world's population. It infected 500 million people around the (27%) of the then world population of about 1.9 billion and the death toll was anywhere from 17 million to 50 million (1-3% of the world's population). Still, by far, the world's worst pandemic. And COVID-19, left unchecked would likely kill 5-10X that 650K/year number, since it's more transmissible and 5-10X more deadly. Which is why testing and social distancing are so important if we are to have any chance of containing it (or at least slowing it down).
 
I was just watching today's press conference by Gov Cuomo where they announced the opening of a drive-thru testing facility in New Rochelle. I'm sure many hate the guy (for obvious reasons) and I have mixed opinions of him and his performance. But I think he's delivering a consistent and relatively reassuring message about the virus. A few times he's compared it to ebola and seasonal flu which I don't think is really relevant. But he's not sugar-coating it - today he said this will be a long process to get through, probably 6 months or more (as opposed to someone else saying the cases will go to zero in a few weeks) but at the same time provides a reassuring message that "we will get through this". It may all be BS but man, it would be nice to have that kind of realistic and yet reassuring message coming from the oval office.

My wife and I were actually saying the same things about diblasio that you’re saying about cuomo. And we are no fans of diblasio
 
The 1918 pandemic did not kill 50% of the world's population. It infected 500 million people around the (27%) of the then world population of about 1.9 billion and the death toll was anywhere from 17 million to 50 million (1-3% of the world's population). Still, by far, the world's worst pandemic. And COVID-19, left unchecked would likely kill 5-10X that 650K/year number, since it's more transmissible and 5-10X more deadly. Which is why testing and social distancing are so important if we are to have any chance of containing it (or at least slowing it down).

I stand corrected. My memory conflated 50 million deaths with 50% I suppose.
 
The big difference with the 1918 pandemic was that it was initially transmitted throughout the world by the world's militaries.
 
I stand corrected. My memory conflated 50 million deaths with 50% I suppose.
All good - it's a very minor point - big picture 1918 was horrific and this virus has that potential if no actions are taken and if the real fatality rate is ~2%, which is what was estimated to be the rate for 1918, not the 0.5-1.0% I've been talking about for days. Fauci and many others think it's in the 0.5-1.0% range (otherwise I wouldn't be saying it), which is much less than the 2-5% we're seeing in many countries (or the 6.6% in Italy), since we don't know the denominator of total infections yet - except we're probably close to that in SK which is now at a 0.8% morality rate, with, by far, the greatest testing rate per capita. Even at a "true" mortality rate of 0.8%, that's about 8X more than the regular flu. We can also hope that it's even lower - Germany's is at 0.2%, by far the lowest of any country with over 2000 confirmed cases - and Norway/Sweden are at 0.1%, although still less than 1000 cases.
 
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