yet you were rallying behind the WHO when you slammed the CDC (and Trump for no reason at all) for not using their test kits
That's nonsense. I wasn't "rallying" behind the WHO - it was simply that they had approved a coronavirus test kit developed by German scientists in mid-January that became the standard viral PCR test worldwide by early February, when the CDC was still dicking around trying to develop a test. The fact that it then took 6 more weeks for the CDC test to become widely available, while the virus was spreading throughout the US without our knowledge, due to the lack of testing, was the biggest failure in the history of the CDC and, by extension was the biggest failure of the Administration (closely followed by not having a tracing/isolating infrastructure in place, like SK did), as they could've easily dual-sourced the WHO-approved German test so we at least had something in place, in parallel with working out the bugs of the CDC test.
Either you've willfully ignored all of this or maybe truly haven't seen it, but I'm going to repeat some stuff I've probably said 100 times on this board and not just in this thread. South Korea and the US both had their first cases on Jan 20th. South Korea's government jumped into action and ensured they had 4 different manufacturers producing the WHO-approved test kits by early February, capable of running hundreds of tests per day, and then thousands of tests per day by mid-February. The US didn't reach 1000 tests per day (in a country with ~7X SK's population) until about 3/10.
By 2/4, about 2 weeks after their first case, they had already run about 500 tests and detected about 20 cases and they continued to ramp up testing, such that when they finally started seeing exponential growth around 2/18, they were running over 1000 tests per day and just one week later they were running over 10,000 tests per day. During that week, their aggressive testing revealed that their cases grew quickly from about 20 to almost 1000.
Their ability to "see" the early exponential growth, combined with their aggressive contact tracing and isolating infrastructure (and mask-wearing culture) enabled them to quickly control their major outbreak within a few weeks, leveling off at about 10-11K total cases and about 5 deaths per 1MM by mid/late March. Since then, they've largely kept both cases and deaths very low, stamping out hotspots as they pop up, without ever enforcing widespread stay-at-home orders, generally keeping their economy going. We could've achieved all of that if we had just followed our own damn playbook, like SK did. And keep in mind, Seoul is very similar to NYC Metro in terms of total population and population density, so it's not like controlling the outbreak was far easier there.
In contrast, the US had only run a handful of tests by early March, when there were already tens of thousands of cases, based on retrospective analysis. The US had run less than 200 tests by 3/1 with about 50 positives at that point - that high of a positive rate at that point is strongly indicative of there being far more actual positives. Even once the US ramped up testing by mid-March, we were always seeing 15-25% of tests coming back positive whereas SK generally never got above 5% positives, meaning they were always testing enough to see their outbreak, while we were not.
The two graphics, below, really show a great apples-to-apples comparison of tests, positives, and deaths per 1MM in population for each country. The most glaring difference in testing vs. cases is the much larger separation in time between the test curve and the positive case curve. For SK, they hit 1, 10 and 100 tests per 1MM about 17-20 days before their cases hit 1, 10, and 100 positives per 1MM, whereas in the US, the separation between tests hitting 1/10/100 per 1MM and positive cases hitting those levels was only 6-7 days, meaning the US was simply not testing anywhere near enough to see the early part of the exponential growth well. And these comparisons are even more stark for NY/NJ, since our area was hit harder and earlier that the rest of the US, due to this area being, by far, the biggest hub for travel from Europe, where about 3/4 of our cases came from, combined with our very high population density and extremely high density commuting patterns.
There's little doubt that if the US had been running thousands of tests per day in early March, we would've seen hundreds of positives, like SK did at that point in their outbreak and known how bad it was. Without a good contact tracing/isolation infrastructure, tthe US would've still likely had to rely on stay at home orders to control the outbreak, but those orders in NY, NJ (and many other hard hit states, like MA, CT, RI, MI, LA, etc) could've come 1-2 weeks earlier if the US had had adequate testing - and modeling has shown that 30-40% of lives could've been saved with a week earlier SAH order and 75-90% of deaths could've been prevented with a 2-week earlier SAH order.
https://covidly.com/graph?country=United States&state=#total
https://covidly.com/graph?country=South Korea&state=#total