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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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The way people will twist and create false arguments about outdoor mask thing is really funny.

Who said anything about going to a concert, shoulder to shoulder, with no mask?
It's the same false arguments when people say up "people attending a sold out football game should be in arrested for taking off a mask".
No one is talking about that situation.

As a reminder, Gov. Murphy has no requirements for masks in outdoor settings where social distancing is possible.
 
I'll ask a simple question since haven't really seen a straightforward answer:

Should Gov. Murphy require masks in outdoor settings in addition to social distancing requirements?
For example - sporting events, on the beach etc.
 
The UV radiation is a trivial difference, since fomite transmission is a very minor route - most transmissions are from person to person. With regard to outdoors, the big risks are, just like indoors, when people are pretty close together, i.e., less than 3 feet, like at a concert, sporting event, crowded bar, etc.

And no, a 3 mph breeze will likely have little effect on a 100 mph sneeze or 50 mph cough, at least within 2-3 feet (yes that velocity will slow greatly as the sneeze/cough diffuses, but it will still be >3 mph 2-3 feet away). A 10-20 mph breeze? Yeah, that's probably where it starts to make a difference. For loud talking, sure, probably a ~5 mph breeze makes a difference for someone 3 feet away, but probably not in a loud environment, where the loud talker is likely <1 foot from the other person.

My point is that the similarities of close (3 feet or less), crowded conditions with respect to sneeze/cough/loud talking transmissions indoors vs. outdoors very likely outweigh the minor differences of location. Close, crowded conditions (especially if over more than minutes) are the worst case and that applies to indoors and outdoors. Also, outdoors likely has no benefit in reducing transmission from touching, such as high-fiving and then a person touching his eyes/nose/mouth.

The science says a mask is likely unnecessary anywhere that one can keep >6 feet away (indoors and especially outdoors with any breeze), but where SD isn't possible, like in the close, crowded scenarios above, masks will greatly reduce person-to-person transmissions indoors and outdoors.


science says but the WHO continues to say that healthy people shouldnt be wearing masks
 
You'd need to give me some verifiable proof of outdoor transmission of this virus before I would consider wearing a mask outdoors, even in semi crowded situations like the beach. I agree that a very large, tightly packed outdoor gathering like a concert or sporting event is probably too questionable until more is known because of the massive risk associated. But I would go to an outdoor beer garden or restaurant as long as strangers aren't shoulder to shoulder.

Many people freaked over the Ozarks pool party, and there was even a known Covid case there that tested positive a day or two after MDW. We are coming up on two weeks since that video emerged. That is a great test case, and thus far there is no outbreak traced to that. Alternately, the hair salon in Missouri where the stylists were positive but were warning masks is another great test case that show the value of masks, and there doesn't appear to be any outbreak emanating from that scenario either thankfully.

It seems that if we all can be responsible citizens and neighbors, we can continue on the downward trajectory.
 
I'll ask a simple question since haven't really seen a straightforward answer:

Should Gov. Murphy require masks in outdoor settings in addition to social distancing requirements?
For example - sporting events, on the beach etc.
No.
 
on the beach absolutely not..why? thats absurd

what is also absurd is salons and gyms not being opened yet

there is no science behind any timeframe Murphy has right now and his hypocrisy in praising protestors while shuttering businesses is beyond the pale
Murphy is just making random decisions in order to stay irrelevant.
 
This might be a dumb question, but can you risk catching the virus by petting a dog? Or interacting with a dog? We're going to a breeder tomorrow to see our puppy we are going to buy. The breeder apparently works for a nursing home where there were tons of cases in northern NJ. She has been tested weekly and is negative each time... we'll be wearing masks and very socially distanced in her backyard outside. (85 degrees and sunny tomorrow in NJ).
My wife is concerned that if she may have it (contracted after a recent test?), sneezes on her hand and pets her dog, we could potentially get it by petting the dog.... is there any concern? Would you cancel the meeting with a breed who works at a nursing home that has had a ton of cases?
 
For anyone interested:

I ran an analysis on Boulware's study and compared DAY 1/DAY 2 HCQ vs PLACEBO DAY 1/2 and here is what I got.

HCQ 17/177 (9.6%)
Placebo 26/169 (15.4%)
Difference between means -5.8% (95% CL -12.8, 0.01)

Odds Ratio = 0.62
p-value = 0.1039 which is 90% significance level.

I also ran Day 1 HCQ versus all placebo since it does not matter what day you got placebo.

HCQ 5/77 (6.5%)
Placebo 58/407 (14.3%)
Difference between means -7.8% (95% CL -16, 0.0)
Odds ratio 0.45
p-value 0.0629 which is 94% significance level.


By the way I also performed a regression analysis on the HCQ data versus Days After Exposure. R2 0f 0.84 and an intercept of about 5% meaning if they took HCQ the day they were exposed you might potentially see a 60% reduction in cases. If you took it before exposure .... seems to align nicely with the data from India. In fact, I would love the Day HCQ data showing infected criteria, etc.

0eqTCZujr7Koyhp6C89t-t_DwqCD5jSU_MsVR5Rdp4t3LvuW72IsG57z_0J5qKIkRv2OquV2Coog6YFO8v_WKs-uUXj3H8RNjCQ7iw50xIqMFH8wzIE4tNVBf3rJ5DJubniDFdn5
 
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This might be a dumb question, but can you risk catching the virus by petting a dog? Or interacting with a dog? We're going to a breeder tomorrow to see our puppy we are going to buy. The breeder apparently works for a nursing home where there were tons of cases in northern NJ. She has been tested weekly and is negative each time... we'll be wearing masks and very socially distanced in her backyard outside. (85 degrees and sunny tomorrow in NJ).
My wife is concerned that if she may have it (contracted after a recent test?), sneezes on her hand and pets her dog, we could potentially get it by petting the dog.... is there any concern? Would you cancel the meeting with a breed who works at a nursing home that has had a ton of cases?

no.
 
I'll ask a simple question since haven't really seen a straightforward answer:

Should Gov. Murphy require masks in outdoor settings in addition to social distancing requirements?
For example - sporting events, on the beach etc.
No mask when you can SD as people need to build immunity up again as staying inside for 10 weeks lowers immunity.
 
on the beach absolutely not..why? thats absurd

what is also absurd is salons and gyms not being opened yet

there is no science behind any timeframe Murphy has right now and his hypocrisy in praising protestors while shuttering businesses is beyond the pale
Spot on
 
No mask when you can SD as people need to build immunity up again as staying inside for 10 weeks lowers immunity.
I haven't been staying at home. Been exposed daily by thousands. My immunity may be lowered by working too many hours but not from lack of interaction
 
You're painting scenarios that would make being outdoors still risky. I'm saying if all other factors are control and the only variable is indoor vs.outdoor, there will be less transmission outside.
Outdoor factors are very minor as I described. UV radiation only reduces transmission from surfaces, which are a tiny source of transmission, and the wind likely only reduces transmission for people who are at least several feet from each other (and it's often not windy). As I've said I don't see a need for masks when people can keep 6+ feet away indoors or outdoors (like most parks or beaches), but if people can't maintain SD because it's just too crowded (and especially when they're in a close crowd, like on mass transit or at an event or at a crowded social function), they should wear masks, indoors or outdoors. Period.
 
7 straight days below 1000 new cases for NJ.

Reason to say restrictions thus far have proven effective, or reason to argue opening up is way over due?
 
7 straight days below 1000 new cases for NJ.

Reason to say restrictions thus far have proven effective, or reason to argue opening up is way over due?
My county has had 15 or fewer new daily cases for the past 6 days (Somerset).
 
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7 straight days below 1000 new cases for NJ.

Reason to say restrictions thus far have proven effective, or reason to argue opening up is way over due?
Effective. Look at the states that had weak stay-at home orders in the South, and South-west. Cases really starting to rise.
 
States have opened up with with no dramatic spikes. Numbers don't support the dome and gloom crowd. There is no reason for facemasks anymore indoors or out. This terrible virus has run its course. Time to go back to normal
 
Level of stupidity on these boards is incredible. the virus has runs its course? No facemasks? We are seeing 20K new cases per day in the US and we are at over 105K deaths in just 3 months. When I see the deaths in NJ of people who are between 35 and 60 years it just breaks my heart - moms, dads, doctors, nurses, coaches, Rutgers fans, multiple people in one family. If you want to put yourself and your family at risk, go ahead, but please don't risk the rest of us.
 
States have opened up with with no dramatic spikes. Numbers don't support the dome and gloom crowd. There is no reason for facemasks anymore indoors or out. This terrible virus has run its course. Time to go back to normal
You're just wrong and if people take your posts seriously, you're putting people at risk. Please stop. Seriously.
 
If it were about politics, surely they could've "cooked the books" more carefully - my guess is it's really about sloppy data collection/analysis, which is very bad, but not fraudulent. This also affects an ivermectin study and one on ACE inhibitors, both of which are off patent, just like HCQ, so unless the authors were going to make $$ off ivermectin (which had good results), there's probably no profit motive. Let's hope we find out what went wrong.

Keep in mind that "peer review" (I've both published peer reviewed journal articles and reviewed them, so I know a little about this) will almost never be able to discover "fraudulent" data, as reviewers don't go back to the raw data to confirm everything that was done. That's the job of other scientists if a scientific finding is considered worthy of verifying - lots of scientists repeat the work of others just to check that.

It's why we've had probably at least a dozen retrospective, observational analyses of HCQ/combos in COVID patients - this just happened to be the largest one - and given this style of study, which is never as good as a true randomized, placebo-controlled, blinded study, we're seeing most studies not showing efficacy and some showing efficacy (in hospitalized patients), which is what one might expect with an ineffective drug with multiple retrospective analyses.

I go back to the bigger point that roughly 60-80% of NYC patients in the JAMA/NJEM studies were on HCQ and reportedly most other hospitals in the US were also giving HCQ during the height of the outbreak - so if HCQ were a "gamechanger" one would not have expected case fatality rates to double in NY and the US from 4/1 to 5/1. That's Occam's Razor level analysis and I'm nearly certain it's correct.


The results of the Recovery trial on HCQ are no surprise at all. Time to turn the page on this awful chapter in medical history. The Lancet study was a horrible scientific mess, in retrospect, but as I've said multiple times, it wasn't really needed to conclude that HCQ was ineffective for hospitalized patients and this randomized, standard-of-care-controlled study should put an end to the arguing, although after the Lancet mess, let's make sure there's nothing odd about the study, which is far less likely, since randomized, controlled blinded studies are far harder to screw up, especially since they use independent data monitoring boards.

We never ever should have been treating 60-80% of hospitalized COVID patients with a completely unproven treatment that wasn't showing efficacy in most observational studies and it's one more reason politicians shouldn't be recommending medical treatments. Having said that, however, it would've been nice to have results from a more definitive trial like this 6 weeks ago - it's also disappointing that we had to wait for a UK study for this info, when we have some of the best clinical research people in the world here in the US.

https://www.recoverytrial.net/news/...oquine-in-hospitalised-patients-with-covid-19

‘We have concluded that there is no beneficial effect of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. We have therefore decided to stop enrolling participants to the hydroxychloroquine arm of the RECOVERY Trial with immediate effect. We are now releasing the preliminary results as they have important implications for patient care and public health.

‘A total of 1542 patients were randomised to hydroxychloroquine and compared with 3132 patients randomised to usual care alone. There was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of 28-day mortality (25.7% hydroxychloroquine vs. 23.5% usual care; hazard ratio 1.11 [95% confidence interval 0.98-1.26]; p=0.10). There was also no evidence of beneficial effects on hospital stay duration or other outcomes.

‘These data convincingly rule out any meaningful mortality benefit of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Full results will be made available as soon as possible.

Peter Horby, Professor of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Global Health in the Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, and Chief Investigator for the trial, said:

‘Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have received a lot of attention and have been used very widely to treat COVID patients despite the absence of any good evidence. The RECOVERY Trial has shown that hydroxychloroquine is not an effective treatment in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Although it is disappointing that this treatment has been shown to be ineffective, it does allow us to focus care and research on more promising drugs.’

Martin Landray, Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology at the Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, and Deputy Chief Investigator, said ‘There has been huge speculation and uncertainty about the role of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19, but an absence of reliable information from large randomised trials. Today’s preliminary results from the RECOVERY Trial are quite clear – hydroxychloroquine does not reduce the risk of death among hospitalised patients with this new disease. This result should change medical practice worldwide and demonstrates the importance of large, randomised trials to inform decisions about both the efficacy and the safety of treatments.’
 
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Just a FYI, we have not had a single Covid admission this week at our hospital, a first. We have gone from having 50 Covid pts on our daily census to one. He had a cardiac arrest yesterday but we brought him back to earth and is doing fine now.
Thanks to our Governor (this is NOT political) for shutting down the state and saving thousands of lives, even at GREAT economic pain. This had to done in the Northeast since we have the much more dangerous mutated Covid strain coming over from Europe as opposed to the West coast which has a milder strain. But as you can see, social distancing , hand sanitizer and wearing masks work! Please do not get complacent, this will have to be the new normal until a vaccine comes out or if something unexpected happens, like a mutation again. If you get Corona, you have a much better chance at survival because at least we know what does not work. Trials are ongoing as to what might work and are being fast-tracked. Hundreds of companies are racing against one another to get that vaccine, like nothing in history, so hopefully this will expedite getting an effective vaccine. Only listen to the FDA for this, not the politicians.
It is time to re-open the economy in phases with restrictions. If someone is not wearing a mask, politely ask them to put one on or turn around and leave. Carry hand sanitizer at all times. Most of this stuff you probably already know but thought I would post it anyway.
 
You're just wrong and if people take your posts seriously, you're putting people at risk. Please stop. Seriously.
From day 1 I have said social distancing is the key indoors and out. Masks are used incorrectly by most of the population. I see it by the thousands everyday. Worse it promotes the need to ignore social distancing. You can sit behind a computer 24/7 and bring up all these lab studies about how effective masks are but go out into the real world and see what is really happening. You agree that masks do not filter out everything correct? So what the hell is the point?
 
Just a FYI, we have not had a single Covid admission this week at our hospital, a first. We have gone from having 50 Covid pts on our daily census to one. He had a cardiac arrest yesterday but we brought him back to earth and is doing fine now.
Thanks to our Governor (this is NOT political) for shutting down the state and saving thousands of lives, even at GREAT economic pain. This had to done in the Northeast since we have the much more dangerous mutated Covid strain coming over from Europe as opposed to the West coast which has a milder strain. But as you can see, social distancing , hand sanitizer and wearing masks work! Please do not get complacent, this will have to be the new normal until a vaccine comes out or if something unexpected happens, like a mutation again. If you get Corona, you have a much better chance at survival because at least we know what does not work. Trials are ongoing as to what might work and are being fast-tracked. Hundreds of companies are racing against one another to get that vaccine, like nothing in history, so hopefully this will expedite getting an effective vaccine. Only listen to the FDA for this, not the politicians.
It is time to re-open the economy in phases with restrictions. If someone is not wearing a mask, politely ask them to put one on or turn around and leave. Carry hand sanitizer at all times. Most of this stuff you probably already know but thought I would post it anyway.

Which hospital?
 
I'm thinking these counties may see spikes soon due to the large protests where social distancing was ignored, though hopefully I'm wrong.

Essex (Newark)

Mercer (Trenton)

Atlantic (AC)

Monmouth (Asbury Park)

Hudson (Hoboken)
+1
Let's see how contagious corona is while outdoors! Well, I guess the looters could have passed the virus around while stealing items in stores.
 
how phony was a bunch of health officials saying that people congregating for protests was not a threat of spreading coronavirus but people congregating for other reasons was, did they actually do that...that is why people are skeptical of anything that health officials and scientists and politicians tell us, when they try putting out a statement like that, it just makes your brain fry seeing this kind of pretezel logic. And this isnt a political post, its an observation
 
Do we have to wear masks at the community pool? lol

Probably find out Monday.

I would guess, based on Gov. Murphy rules for the beaches:

Reduced capacity to ensure social distancing
Wear mask entering pool facility/bathroom/indoor areas
Outside at pool/chairs - no mask required.

Gov. Murphy seems to generally recommend but not require masks in outdoor settings as long as SD measures are taken by the facility.
 
how phony was a bunch of health officials saying that people congregating for protests was not a threat of spreading coronavirus but people congregating for other reasons was, did they actually do that...that is why people are skeptical of anything that health officials and scientists and politicians tell us, when they try putting out a statement like that, it just makes your brain fry seeing this kind of pretezel logic. And this isnt a political post, its an observation
Truth!
 
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