ADVERTISEMENT

COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

Status
Not open for further replies.
Very nice...it would be very apropros here if losartan was the miracle cure for Covid-19 and you helped develop it.



Losartan was one with selective recalls, but I believe valsartan (Diovan) was a much broader recall. So much in fact, that Losartan 50 mg is now back ordered in many places due to the recall of Diovan.



Hopefully south Jersey will be spared. I did see one instance where there is an uptick in south Jersey cases. Plus Lakewood is there. I will take bets it is soon to become the south Jersey hotbed for Covid-19.



Or consider recommending to reduce salt intake, lose some weight (if applicable), minimize stress and exercise more. Then cut the lisinopril as those are four biggies to help reduce hypertension. If it's beneficial in the fight against Covid-19, continue to take it.

Camden city is definitely the South Jersey hotbed for Covid-19 right now.
 
Or consider recommending to reduce salt intake, lose some weight (if applicable), minimize stress and exercise more. Then cut the lisinopril as those are four biggies to help reduce hypertension. If it's beneficial in the fight against Covid-19, continue to take it.
My intention was not to make medical advice on a message board, especially without his medical history. I just was trying to understand why he wanted to switch treatments.
 
My intention was not to make medical advice on a message board, especially without his medical history. I just was trying to understand why he wanted to switch treatments.

Good point...It was a half hearted, jesting jab...and half promoting lifestyle modifications to help reduce the need for pharmaceutical management.
 
I always suspect the weekend numbers to be understatements; state and local offices are not as active as during the week. Let's go through the week and see. Let's also see if the peak passes through Central and Southern New Jersey; being in South Jersey, I am naturally concerned about that.
This is true...
The South China Sea is nowhere near North Korea. I'm going to assume you don't actually have a point.
kbee is a 4real minion? Lol.

1. North Koreans deserve better.
2.China is not our friend.
3.North Korea is an independent nation. 4."Letting" China assume control is something in which we should have no part. 5.S Korea is a close ally
4. Repeat #1& #2
 
Haven’t a lot of blood pressure drugs been recalled recently, losartan being one, for trace amounts of carcinogenic substances in them? I think OTC Zantac as well. Although these issues have more to do with the manufacturing of the drugs than the drugs themselves.
I had some losartin recalled about four years ago if memory serves.
 
Good point...It was a half hearted, jesting jab...and half promoting lifestyle modifications to help reduce the need for pharmaceutical management.
It was excellent advice actually. It is just not as as easy as it sounds.

As for me, I do not watch my salt intake. I do not add salt ever but I enjoy the soup of the day, cold cuts, salty snacks like pretzels, etc. It is what it is.

Also as a severe type A it is hard to relax and reduce stress when you are moving 3000 miles a minute. Weight and exercise are usually not an issue for me but CV has led to gain of 13 lbs and a lot less exercise. Thankfully BP has remained good.
 
This is true...

kbee is a 4real minion? Lol.

1. North Koreans deserve better.
2.China is not our friend.
3.North Korea is an independent nation. 4."Letting" China assume control is something in which we should have no part. 5.S Korea is a close ally
4. Repeat #1& #2

Nothing you've said here is untrue.

Although I seriously doubt that the Dragon Lady winds up being any better for the people of North Korea than the Fat Kid.
 
Or consider recommending to reduce salt intake, lose some weight (if applicable), minimize stress and exercise more. Then cut the lisinopril as those are four biggies to help reduce hypertension. If it's beneficial in the fight against Covid-19, continue to take it.

Since january I have lost 22 pounds my A1C which was once at 11 is down to 7 so I am working on it. Family history of hypertension. Haven't felt well or worked out since the lock down but have controlled my eating my blood sugar after dinner before bed is normally under 190 and resting in the mornings around 115 (diabetic)
 
LOL!! I had 3 semesters of engineering school at RU and you were starting to give me flashbacks. I was thinking of Pascal, partial pressures, dynamics, Calc 3...I was close to a seizure.
Fun stuff!! You should've stayed for the 5 semesters of calc and then a host of courses that used that calc and advanced numerical methods. And then you could've doubled that fun in 5 years of grad school, where the math got really hard. Although engineers are at the low end of the math pecking order, with physicists being a step above and then pure mathematicians above that. Most of those guys never saw the light of day in school, lol.
 
Fun stuff!! You should've stayed for the 5 semesters of calc and then a host of courses that used that calc and advanced numerical methods. And then you could've doubled that fun in 5 years of grad school, where the math got really hard. Although engineers are at the low end of the math pecking order, with physicists being a step above and then pure mathematicians above that. Most of those guys never saw the light of day in school, lol.
I took an "advanced calculus" class once. It was all proofs. I had no idea what I was doing most of the time but somehow came out with an A. Don't think I ever used any of that stuff at any point in my career.

Also took plenty of numerical methods, differential equations, fluid dynamics in grad school...more interesting/understandable and actually used all of that stuff. Never had to take stuff like quantum which my wife did in grad school. I think it left her with PTSD!
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU848789
Op Ed piece from president of Taiwan in recent issue of Time magazine:

APRIL 16, 2020 7:01 AM EDT
Taiwan is an island of resilience. Centuries of hardship have compelled our society to cope, adapt, and survive trying circumstances. We have found ways to persevere through difficult times together as a nation, and the COVID-19 pandemic is no different. Despite the virus’s highly infectious nature and our proximity to its source, we have prevented a major outbreak. As of April 14, we have had fewer than 400 confirmed cases.

This success is no coincidence. A combination of efforts by medical professionals, government, private sector and society at large have armored our country’s defenses. The painful lessons of the 2003 SARS outbreak, which left Taiwan scarred with the loss of dozens of lives, put our government and people on high alert early on. Last December, when indications of a contagious new respiratory illness began to appear in China, we began monitoring incoming passengers from Wuhan. In January, we established the Central Epidemic Command Center to handle prevention measures. We introduced travel restrictions, and established quarantine protocols for high-risk travelers.

Upon the discovery of the first infected person in Taiwan on Jan. 21, we undertook rigorous investigative efforts to track travel and contact history for every patient, helping to isolate and contain the contagion before a mass community outbreak was possible. In addition to the tireless efforts of our public-health professionals, spearheaded by Health Minister Chen Shih-chung, our informed citizens have done their part. Private businesses, franchises and apartment communities have initiated body-temperature monitoring and disinfection steps that have supplemented government efforts in public spaces.

To prevent mass panic buying, at an early stage the government monitored market spikes in commodities and took over the production and distribution of medical-grade masks. With the cooperation of private machine-tool and medical-supply companies, the Ministry of Economic Affairs coordinated additional production lines for surgical masks, multiplying production capacity. Supported by technology experts, pharmacies and convenience stores, we devised a system for distributing rationed masks. Here, masks are available and affordable to both hospitals and the general public. The joint efforts of government and private companies—a partnership we have deemed “Team Taiwan”—have also enabled us to donate supplies to seriously affected countries.

Taiwan has one of the world’s top health care systems, strong research capabilities and transparent information that we actively share with both the public and international bodies. Indeed, Taiwan has effectively managed the containment of the corona-virus within our borders. Yet on a global level, COVID-19 is a humanitarian disaster that requires the joint efforts of all countries. Although Taiwan has been unfairly excluded from the WHO and the U.N., we remain willing and able to utilize our strengths across manufacturing, medicine and technology to work with the world.

Global crises test the fabric of the inter-national community, stretching us at the seams and threatening to tear us apart. Now more than ever, every link in this global network must be accounted for. We must set aside our differences and work together for the benefit of humankind. The fight against COVID-19 will require the collective efforts of people around the world.

Taiwan is no stranger to hardship, and our resilience stems from our willingness to unite to surmount even the toughest obstacles. This, above all else, is what I hope Taiwan can share with the world: the human capacity to overcome challenges together is limitless. Taiwan can help.

Tsai is the President of Taiwan

https://time.com/collection/finding-hope-coronavirus-pandemic/5820596/taiwan-coronavirus-lessons/
 
Op Ed piece from president of Taiwan in recent issue of Time magazine:

APRIL 16, 2020 7:01 AM EDT
Taiwan is an island of resilience. Centuries of hardship have compelled our society to cope, adapt, and survive trying circumstances. We have found ways to persevere through difficult times together as a nation, and the COVID-19 pandemic is no different. Despite the virus’s highly infectious nature and our proximity to its source, we have prevented a major outbreak. As of April 14, we have had fewer than 400 confirmed cases.

This success is no coincidence. A combination of efforts by medical professionals, government, private sector and society at large have armored our country’s defenses. The painful lessons of the 2003 SARS outbreak, which left Taiwan scarred with the loss of dozens of lives, put our government and people on high alert early on. Last December, when indications of a contagious new respiratory illness began to appear in China, we began monitoring incoming passengers from Wuhan. In January, we established the Central Epidemic Command Center to handle prevention measures. We introduced travel restrictions, and established quarantine protocols for high-risk travelers.

Upon the discovery of the first infected person in Taiwan on Jan. 21, we undertook rigorous investigative efforts to track travel and contact history for every patient, helping to isolate and contain the contagion before a mass community outbreak was possible. In addition to the tireless efforts of our public-health professionals, spearheaded by Health Minister Chen Shih-chung, our informed citizens have done their part. Private businesses, franchises and apartment communities have initiated body-temperature monitoring and disinfection steps that have supplemented government efforts in public spaces.

To prevent mass panic buying, at an early stage the government monitored market spikes in commodities and took over the production and distribution of medical-grade masks. With the cooperation of private machine-tool and medical-supply companies, the Ministry of Economic Affairs coordinated additional production lines for surgical masks, multiplying production capacity. Supported by technology experts, pharmacies and convenience stores, we devised a system for distributing rationed masks. Here, masks are available and affordable to both hospitals and the general public. The joint efforts of government and private companies—a partnership we have deemed “Team Taiwan”—have also enabled us to donate supplies to seriously affected countries.

Taiwan has one of the world’s top health care systems, strong research capabilities and transparent information that we actively share with both the public and international bodies. Indeed, Taiwan has effectively managed the containment of the corona-virus within our borders. Yet on a global level, COVID-19 is a humanitarian disaster that requires the joint efforts of all countries. Although Taiwan has been unfairly excluded from the WHO and the U.N., we remain willing and able to utilize our strengths across manufacturing, medicine and technology to work with the world.

Global crises test the fabric of the inter-national community, stretching us at the seams and threatening to tear us apart. Now more than ever, every link in this global network must be accounted for. We must set aside our differences and work together for the benefit of humankind. The fight against COVID-19 will require the collective efforts of people around the world.

Taiwan is no stranger to hardship, and our resilience stems from our willingness to unite to surmount even the toughest obstacles. This, above all else, is what I hope Taiwan can share with the world: the human capacity to overcome challenges together is limitless. Taiwan can help.

Tsai is the President of Taiwan

https://time.com/collection/finding-hope-coronavirus-pandemic/5820596/taiwan-coronavirus-lessons/

Planning, leadership, trust, teamwork, sacrifice. Well done.
 
  • Like
Reactions: satnom
10,000 infections in NYC on 3/1?, more on Pueyo article, and why, again, testing is so critical...

More on the Pueyo "Learning to Dance" article in Medium and today's Times article showing a Northeastern University analysis that NYC likely had 10,000 infections as early as 3/1 (and the rest of the US was far more infected than thought, also); these dovetail with the NYC subway analysis above, too.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/...action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Feel like I've been screaming for weeks about how our lack of early, aggressive testing capability was the most important element in letting this outbreak get way out of control, especially in the the NYC metro area (<200 tests in NY through 3/6!). If NYC had 10,000 infections by 3/1, as per this new analysis of the data, that's roughly 1000 per 1MM in population and as I've noted a few times, some experts believe that aggressive interventions need to be in place before 200 cases per 1MM in order to control an outbreak.

And the only way to know if you have an exponentially growing outbreak is to have aggressive early testing (like South Korea and Taiwan had) and the US was so far from that it's sad, given the testing debacle. I have been saying we needed to be in lockdown starting early March, but this analysis probably says it should have been late February, when we weren't even testing and had no data and no way would anyone have supported shutting anything down without data. Yes, NY (and NJ) now lead the world in tests per 1MM, but that's only because we started so late in the outbreak and our testing was always playing catch up to the outbreak.

The graphic below from Pueyo's "Learning to Dance" Medium article shows how important early testing is to get ahead of an outbreak, as reflected in the low % of positive tests in countries like SK, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. The US number is bad, but the NY/NJ area numbers are far worse as our area was in the 40-50% of tests being positive for weeks at the height of the outbreak, as we were so far behind. The second graphic shows where various countries are on the "hammer" (heavy social distancing to control major outbreaks) vs. the "dance" (relaxing harsh social distancing in a careful way to avoid a second outbreak) - and we're clearly nowhere near ready to "relax" social distancing yet, based on that curve, even in states with less of an outbreak, so far, vs. the worst states.

Coronavirus: Learning How to Dance

And one more time, but if we had done what South Korea had done (and Seoul is almost as densely populated as NYC, so don't say it's not possible), we could probably be near their 5 deaths/1MM and not the 144 deaths/1MM in the US - or sadly the ~1000 deaths/1MM we have in NY or ~500 deaths/1MM in NJ. Even at 10 deaths per 1MM, that would be 3300 in the US vs. the ~47,000 we have now (and 200 in NY vs. the ~20,000 we have now).

I know none of this solves the problem of what to do now, but it should at least shout at people/politicians to not repeat this mistake across the country by relaxing social distancing without having massive testing and efficient contact tracing/quarantining and a mask culture in place. Repeating the folly we just went through would be Einstein's classic definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.

Minor comment: I do think the Northeastern study probably overstates SF's outbreak (9300 on 3/1) relative to NYC's (10,700 on 3/1), since the outcomes diverged so heavily after that, with SF having much less of an epidemic and far less deaths. I don't think their 3/15 shelter-in-place order (vs. NY's on 3/22, even though NYC had shut schools, restaurants, bars and such by 3/16) should have made that much of a difference in outcomes. But that's arguing minutiae vs. the big picture of there likely being major outbreaks underway by mid/late February. Also, as per the subway/mass transit study, the far greater population density and "mixing/contacts" of commuters in NYC would drive a much faster outbreak vs. SF, as has been seen.

PNSua8s.png



zFDuvGs.png

Revisiting the Administration's testing debacle with regard to the impact that likely had in the US in not having the info we needed on the outbreak to start social distancing 1-2 weeks earlier. I've said many times that I thought we could've come close to South Korea's low death rate (5 per 1MM vs. the US's 158/1MM) if we had adopted their early aggressive testing, tracing, isolating, social distancing and mask culture (but especially testing as that's first).

Well, it turns out that many experts think locking down 2 weeks earlier would've saved most of the lives lost. Recently, the IHME models from U. Washington were used to do simulations of what would've happened with lockdowns 1 or 2 weeks earlier and a 1 week earlier lockdown would've reduced US deaths from 60K projected to 23K and a 2-week earlier lockdown would've reduced deaths from 60K to 6K or 90%. See the graphic below from the article linked.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/opinion/covid-social-distancing.html

Obviously, these are models and are subject to error, but the point is that social distancing seriously works when done well. Whether or not we would've saved 90% or 60% is largely immaterial - the point is we likely could've saved a large majority of the lives lost. But the only way we could have possibly "sold" the idea of implementing SD in early March, before more than a handful of deaths, would have been to have massive, early testing in place, like we should have.

That would've identified the exponentially growing outbreak in late February, especially in NYC metro (where experts now think we had 10,000 cases by 3/1), where half of US deaths have occurred. South Korea had that level of testing ongoing by about 2/20, so no reason we couldn't have also. One would think that knowing we had skyrocketing growth, and knowing what was going on in Italy by early March with climbing death rates might've been enough to spur earlier lockdowns.

NY, for example, started shutting things down (schools and restaurants) around 3/15 with ~800 cases and finished the shutdown by about 3/20 with 8300 cases (the fastest growth rate, by far, in the world). So if we were testing more in late Feb than we were even in mid-March (still only a few thousand tests per day), we likely would've seen case numbers like these in late Feb/early March.

It's also interesting that the actual cases and deaths in NY/NJ ended up being far worse than anyone thought, as NY has over twice the death rate (1085 per 1MM) as Italy and Spain (450-500) , the two worst countries (and NJ is worse too at nearly 700), but the hospitals somehow were never completely overwhelmed, but it was damn close and there were short periods where they truly were overwhelmed and supplies/vents ran out. In hindsight, it looks like the hospitalizations as a fraction of cases were a lot lower than expected, which was good, but it looks like the deaths per hospitalizations and per cases were much greater than expected, which is bad.

4KVgeHE.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: RUJohnny
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...tes-in-four-state-prisons-who-tested-positive

An overwhelmingly majority of inmates from four states' prison systems that tested positive for COVID-19 have been asymptomatic, according to Reuters.

Between Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, 3,277 inmates tested positive for the virus. Of that number, 96 percent of the inmates were asymptomatic, meaning they showed no symptoms associated with the disease.

Asymptomatic patients can transmit COVID-19 unknowingly, putting at-risk populations in danger of contracting a virus that could be fatal. This fact has alarmed health experts since the onset of the pandemic and forced state government officials to instate social distancing measures.

Asymptomatic carriers pose a particular challenge in the country's state prison system where often, inmates come in close contact with one another.

“It adds to the understanding that we have a severe undercount of cases in the U.S.,” Leana Wen, adjunct associate professor of emergency medicine at George Washington University, told the wire service. “The case count is likely much, much higher than we currently know because of the lack of testing and surveillance.”

The U.S. has more incarcerated persons than any other country in the world – over 2.3 million were reported in 2017. Michigan, Tennessee and California have all started mass testing in their respective prisons.

The results in those state prisons were similar; Tennessee reported a majority of its positive cases didn't show symptoms, while Michigan reported that “a good number” of the 620 positive cases showed no symptoms of the virus.

Some states, like Florida, New York and Texas are only testing inmates who exhibit symptoms.

“Prison agencies are almost certainly vastly undercounting the number of COVID cases among incarcerated persons,” Michele Deitch, a corrections specialist and senior lecturer at the University of Texas, told Reuters.

“Just as the experts are telling us in our free-world communities, the only way to get ahead of this outbreak is through mass testing.”

Overall in the U.S., COVID-19 has infected over 925,500 people, killing more than 53,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
 
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/how-did-turkey-do-it/amp

Turkey is simply doing what the World Health Organization (WHO) calls “contact tracing.” Accordingly, if a person has symptoms, he is supposed to go to a medical facility and start the treatment procedure. Meanwhile, the health authorities immediately start to trace all his recent contacts and get them tested. Those who test positive are taken to a medical facility and treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Favipravir is also used for intensive care patients who have severe pneumonia.

Early treatment what a novel idea. Turkey has 33 deaths per million pop which is 1/5 of ours. Their deaths per confirmed cases is half of ours.

I firmly believe that if we had shut down two weeks earlier and treated cases immediately like in SK, HK and Turkey our death toll would be a mere fraction of what it is currently.
 
Last edited:
https://www.aphp.fr/contenu/tociliz...outcomes-patients-moderate-or-severe-covid-19

Encouraging beginnings. This is how the doctors of the Public Assistance-Hospitals of Paris judge the first results of the study currently being conducted with tocilizumab. This drug, usually used in rheumatology, "significantly improves the prognosis of patients with moderate or severe Covid pneumonia , " said the APHP in a statement released Monday, April 27.
 
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/how-did-turkey-do-it/amp

Turkey is simply doing what the World Health Organization (WHO) calls “contact tracing.” Accordingly, if a person has symptoms, he is supposed to go to a medical facility and start the treatment procedure. Meanwhile, the health authorities immediately start to trace all his recent contacts and get them tested. Those who test positive are taken to a medical facility and treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Favipravir is also used for intensive care patients who have severe pneumonia.

Early treatment what a novel idea. Turkey has 33 deaths per million pop which is 1/5 of ours. Their deaths per confirmed cases is half of ours.

I firmly believe that if we had shut down two weeks earlier and treated cases immediately like in SK, HK and Turkey our death toll would be a mere fraction of what it is currently.
Germany too.
 
https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/how-did-turkey-do-it/amp

Turkey is simply doing what the World Health Organization (WHO) calls “contact tracing.” Accordingly, if a person has symptoms, he is supposed to go to a medical facility and start the treatment procedure. Meanwhile, the health authorities immediately start to trace all his recent contacts and get them tested. Those who test positive are taken to a medical facility and treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin. Favipravir is also used for intensive care patients who have severe pneumonia.

Early treatment what a novel idea. Turkey has 33 deaths per million pop which is 1/5 of ours. Their deaths per confirmed cases is half of ours.

I firmly believe that if we had shut down two weeks earlier and treated cases immediately like in SK, HK and Turkey our death toll would be a mere fraction of what it is currently.
Lotta people dismissing HCQ but I've maintained all along that it needs to be tested in people earlier in the disease course. Hopefully some of the current studies will show that it has benefit without much risk. We need some good news.

And yes, shutting down NYC area two weeks earlier would have made a HUGE difference (that's how exponential growth works) but hard to really fault them given the lack of knowledge/testing and conflicting guidance at the time.
 
Murphy's Road to Recovery plan is anything but. Stay at home orders extended "indefinitely" and the gradual phase back in won't start until testing capacity is doubled and the target for that is end of May.
 
Lotta people dismissing HCQ but I've maintained all along that it needs to be tested in people earlier in the disease course. Hopefully some of the current studies will show that it has benefit without much risk. We need some good news.

And yes, shutting down NYC area two weeks earlier would have made a HUGE difference (that's how exponential growth works) but hard to really fault them given the lack of knowledge/testing and conflicting guidance at the time.

This is an article from the New Yorker comparing the differences between Seattle's and New York City's response to the Virus. The NYC's Health Department wanted to shut things down much earlier but got resistance. The first part of the article is a very good read on the crisis management and communications that Seattle inacted. Here is one passage about the infighting in NYC:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/...et-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not

In New York City, the Health Department began collecting swabs, but the initiative met swift resistance. Under federal health laws, such swabs have to be anonymized for patients who haven’t consented to a coronavirus test. This meant that, even if city officials learned that many people were infected, officials wouldn’t be able to identify, let alone warn, any of them. The Mayor’s office refused to authorize testing the swabs. “They didn’t want to have to say, ‘There are hundreds, maybe thousands, of you who are positive for coronavirus, but we don’t know who,’ ” a Department of Health official told me, adding, “It was a real opportunity to communicate to New Yorkers that this is serious—you have to stay home.” The effort was blocked over fears that it might create a panic, but such alarm might have proved useful. After all, the official told me, panic is pretty effective at getting people to change their behavior. Instead, the Mayor’s office informed the Health Department that the city would sponsor a job fair to find a few new “disease detectives.” That event was held on March 12th, in Long Island City. The Department of Health official said, “We’re in the middle of a catastrophe, and their solution is to make us waste time interviewing and onboarding people!” (The Mayor’s office eventually relented on the sentinel-surveillance samples, and testing began on March 23rd—almost a month after samples were first collected. By then, the outbreak was well under way.)

As New York City schools, bars, and restaurants remained open, relations between the Department of Health and City Hall devolved. Health supervisors were “very, very angry,” one official told me. In particular, health officials were furious that de Blasio kept telling New Yorkers to go out and get a test if they suspected they were infected. On March 4th, he tweeted, “If you feel flu-like symptoms (fever, cough and shortness of breath), and recently traveled to an area affected by coronavirus . . . go to your doctor.” This was the opposite of what city health supervisors were advising: people needed to stay inside and call their doctor if they felt sick. Making trips to doctors’ offices or emergency rooms only increased the odds that the virus would spread, and the city’s limited supply of tests needed to be saved for people with life-threatening conditions. De Blasio’s staff, however, had started micromanaging the department’s communications, including on Twitter. Finally, on March 15th, the Department of Health was allowed to post a thread: “If you are sick, stay home. If you do not feel better in 3 to 4 days, consult with your health care provider”; “Testing should only be used for people who need to be hospitalized”; “Everyone in NYC should act as if they have been exposed to coronavirus. . . . New Yorkers who are not sick should also stay home as much as possible.” One City Council member told me that health officials “had been trying to say that publicly for weeks, but this mayor refuses to trust the experts—it’s mind-boggling.”

As the city’s scientists offered plans for more aggressive action and provided data showing that time was running out, the Mayor’s staff responded that the health officials were politically naïve. At one point, Dr. Marcelle Layton, the city’s assistant commissioner of communicable diseases, and an E.I.S. alum who is revered by health officials across the nation for her inventiveness and dedication, was ordered to City Hall, in case she was needed to help the Mayor answer questions from the press. She sat on a bench in a hallway for three hours, away from her team, while politicians spoke to the media. (Layton declined interview requests.) At press conferences, Layton and other physicians played minimal roles while de Blasio and Cuomo, longtime rivals, each attempted to take center stage. The two men even began publicly feuding—arguing in the press, and through aides, about who had authority over schools and workplace closures.


Eventually, three of the top leaders of the city’s Department of Health met with de Blasio and demanded that he quickly instate social-distancing rules and begin sending clear messages to the public to stay indoors. Layton and a deputy health commissioner, Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, indicated to de Blasio’s staff that if the Mayor didn’t act promptly they would resign. (The next day, Layton’s staff greeted her with applause, and at least one employee offered to give her some money if she had to make good on the ultimatum.) De Blasio was in a corner: he had long positioned himself as a champion of the underclass, and closing schools would disproportionately hurt the poor and vulnerable. What’s more, unions representing health-care workers had threatened that nurses, orderlies, and others might stay home unless there was a plan to provide child care.

Nevertheless, de Blasio finally acceded to the health officials’ demands. On March 16th, after a compromise was reached with the health-care unions, city schools were closed, and Cuomo ordered all gyms and similar facilities to shut down. The messaging remained jumbled, however. Right before the gym closure was set to take effect, de Blasio asked his driver to take him to the Y.M.C.A. in Park Slope, near his old home, for a final workout. Even de Blasio’s allies were outraged. A former adviser tweeted, “The mayor’s actions today are inexcusable and reckless.” Another former consultant tweeted that the gym visit was “Pathetic. Self-involved. Inexcusable.”
 
LOL!! I had 3 semesters of engineering school at RU and you were starting to give me flashbacks. I was thinking of Pascal, partial pressures, dynamics, Calc 3...I was close to a seizure.
Lightweight!
e0LLql8.gif

Planning, leadership, trust, teamwork, sacrifice. Well done.
Agreed. Way too much of that to allow them in the WHO, though. They don't need that kind of effectiveness.
https://www-newyorker-com.cdn.amppr.../2020/04/13/the-quest-for-a-pandemic-pill/amp

SIAP ....... but this is a great read. One of the conclusions stated that Covid2 is the 3rd coronavirus within the last 20 years. So, the 4th one isn't a matter of IF, but a matter of when. And we need to be better prepared.
This is the first one to breech our shores, so I think this will help set the blueprint for future pandemics.
 
I mean, that is a plan. Maybe one you don't agree with, but it is a broad brushstroke plan.

It's not a good plan because it doesn't set any benchmarks or thresholds at which different phases get out into action. It is the plan put forth across the tri state with the least specifics and the most ambiguity.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jreinsdorf
https://www.aphp.fr/contenu/tociliz...outcomes-patients-moderate-or-severe-covid-19

Encouraging beginnings. This is how the doctors of the Public Assistance-Hospitals of Paris judge the first results of the study currently being conducted with tocilizumab. This drug, usually used in rheumatology, "significantly improves the prognosis of patients with moderate or severe Covid pneumonia , " said the APHP in a statement released Monday, April 27.

Yup, sounds like these cytokine storm blockers are going to be a game changer. Some whispers that Leronlimab is showing similar results.
 
This is an article from the New Yorker comparing the differences between Seattle's and New York City's response to the Virus. The NYC's Health Department wanted to shut things down much earlier but got resistance. The first part of the article is a very good read on the crisis management and communications that Seattle inacted. Here is one passage about the infighting in NYC:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/...et-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not

In New York City, the Health Department began collecting swabs, but the initiative met swift resistance. Under federal health laws, such swabs have to be anonymized for patients who haven’t consented to a coronavirus test. This meant that, even if city officials learned that many people were infected, officials wouldn’t be able to identify, let alone warn, any of them. The Mayor’s office refused to authorize testing the swabs. “They didn’t want to have to say, ‘There are hundreds, maybe thousands, of you who are positive for coronavirus, but we don’t know who,’ ” a Department of Health official told me, adding, “It was a real opportunity to communicate to New Yorkers that this is serious—you have to stay home.” The effort was blocked over fears that it might create a panic, but such alarm might have proved useful. After all, the official told me, panic is pretty effective at getting people to change their behavior. Instead, the Mayor’s office informed the Health Department that the city would sponsor a job fair to find a few new “disease detectives.” That event was held on March 12th, in Long Island City. The Department of Health official said, “We’re in the middle of a catastrophe, and their solution is to make us waste time interviewing and onboarding people!” (The Mayor’s office eventually relented on the sentinel-surveillance samples, and testing began on March 23rd—almost a month after samples were first collected. By then, the outbreak was well under way.)

As New York City schools, bars, and restaurants remained open, relations between the Department of Health and City Hall devolved. Health supervisors were “very, very angry,” one official told me. In particular, health officials were furious that de Blasio kept telling New Yorkers to go out and get a test if they suspected they were infected. On March 4th, he tweeted, “If you feel flu-like symptoms (fever, cough and shortness of breath), and recently traveled to an area affected by coronavirus . . . go to your doctor.” This was the opposite of what city health supervisors were advising: people needed to stay inside and call their doctor if they felt sick. Making trips to doctors’ offices or emergency rooms only increased the odds that the virus would spread, and the city’s limited supply of tests needed to be saved for people with life-threatening conditions. De Blasio’s staff, however, had started micromanaging the department’s communications, including on Twitter. Finally, on March 15th, the Department of Health was allowed to post a thread: “If you are sick, stay home. If you do not feel better in 3 to 4 days, consult with your health care provider”; “Testing should only be used for people who need to be hospitalized”; “Everyone in NYC should act as if they have been exposed to coronavirus. . . . New Yorkers who are not sick should also stay home as much as possible.” One City Council member told me that health officials “had been trying to say that publicly for weeks, but this mayor refuses to trust the experts—it’s mind-boggling.”

As the city’s scientists offered plans for more aggressive action and provided data showing that time was running out, the Mayor’s staff responded that the health officials were politically naïve. At one point, Dr. Marcelle Layton, the city’s assistant commissioner of communicable diseases, and an E.I.S. alum who is revered by health officials across the nation for her inventiveness and dedication, was ordered to City Hall, in case she was needed to help the Mayor answer questions from the press. She sat on a bench in a hallway for three hours, away from her team, while politicians spoke to the media. (Layton declined interview requests.) At press conferences, Layton and other physicians played minimal roles while de Blasio and Cuomo, longtime rivals, each attempted to take center stage. The two men even began publicly feuding—arguing in the press, and through aides, about who had authority over schools and workplace closures.


Eventually, three of the top leaders of the city’s Department of Health met with de Blasio and demanded that he quickly instate social-distancing rules and begin sending clear messages to the public to stay indoors. Layton and a deputy health commissioner, Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, indicated to de Blasio’s staff that if the Mayor didn’t act promptly they would resign. (The next day, Layton’s staff greeted her with applause, and at least one employee offered to give her some money if she had to make good on the ultimatum.) De Blasio was in a corner: he had long positioned himself as a champion of the underclass, and closing schools would disproportionately hurt the poor and vulnerable. What’s more, unions representing health-care workers had threatened that nurses, orderlies, and others might stay home unless there was a plan to provide child care.

Nevertheless, de Blasio finally acceded to the health officials’ demands. On March 16th, after a compromise was reached with the health-care unions, city schools were closed, and Cuomo ordered all gyms and similar facilities to shut down. The messaging remained jumbled, however. Right before the gym closure was set to take effect, de Blasio asked his driver to take him to the Y.M.C.A. in Park Slope, near his old home, for a final workout. Even de Blasio’s allies were outraged. A former adviser tweeted, “The mayor’s actions today are inexcusable and reckless.” Another former consultant tweeted that the gym visit was “Pathetic. Self-involved. Inexcusable.”
Looks like a good article, thanks for sharing. Scanned through it quickly but will read in more detail later.
 
I mean, that is a plan. Maybe one you don't agree with, but it is a broad brushstroke plan.
NOt really a plan as far as I am concerned gives us no idea when we will actually be able to open its tough to keep businesses closed for 3 months and expect small businesses to survive; these PPP loans they are touting are just a different form of unemployment and they want us to pay employees for not working while we are closed
 
  • Like
Reactions: biker7766
NOt really a plan as far as I am concerned gives us no idea when we will actually be able to open its tough to keep businesses closed for 3 months and expect small businesses to survive; these PPP loans they are touting are just a different form of unemployment and they want us to pay employees for not working while we are closed
I have been thinking all along that our time frame would be close to what Wuhan's was. They were locked down 76 days and if you apply that to when we started our lockdown it puts us near Memorial Day or early June.
 
It's not a good plan because it doesn't set any benchmarks or thresholds at which different phases get out into action. It is the plan put forth across the tri state with the least specifics and the most ambiguity.
Murphy started off strong at the start of the outbreak but it seems like he's kinda stuck in the mud with in regards what to do in next, but in his defense he had to figure we would be beating this virus by now or showing more progress, but the problem is there are communities in the northeast of the state and Lakewood that are being problematic and basically holding the whole state hostage, and that's where Murphy is going to have problems in trying to get the areas that are not being hit hard to stay with the program, anger and anxiety is growing and growing fast.

We'll see how capable he is in thinking outside of the box.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jreinsdorf
Murphy started off strong at the start of the outbreak but it seems like he's kinda stuck in the mud with in regards what to do in next, but in his defense he had to figure we would be beating this virus by now or showing more progress, but the problem is there are communities in the northeast of the state and Lakewood that are being problematic and basically holding the whole state hostage, and that's where Murphy is going to have problems in trying to get the areas that are not being hit hard to stay with the program, anger and anxiety is growing and growing fast.

We'll see how capable he is in thinking outside of the box.
Agree. I appreciated his early reaction and response and supported these measures, until today. Other states and NYC have dates and thresholds, and all we have is this guy asking God for help, and posting Instagram photos of dead residents. It's getting weird with him quite frankly.
 
Agree. I appreciated his early reaction and response and supported these measures, until today. Other states and NYC have dates and thresholds, and all we have is this guy asking God for help, and posting Instagram photos of dead residents. It's getting weird with him quite frankly.

I agree, Murphy is clueless and has NJ in the worst shape than any state in the country.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MulletCork
today Dewine delivered phase 1 here in Ohio. factories, dentists, vets, and outpatient procedures will open back up. stay at home orders still in affect.
 
The South China Sea is nowhere near North Korea. I'm going to assume you don't actually have a point.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...tes-in-four-state-prisons-who-tested-positive

An overwhelmingly majority of inmates from four states' prison systems that tested positive for COVID-19 have been asymptomatic, according to Reuters.

Between Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, 3,277 inmates tested positive for the virus. Of that number, 96 percent of the inmates were asymptomatic, meaning they showed no symptoms associated with the disease.

Asymptomatic patients can transmit COVID-19 unknowingly, putting at-risk populations in danger of contracting a virus that could be fatal. This fact has alarmed health experts since the onset of the pandemic and forced state government officials to instate social distancing measures.

Asymptomatic carriers pose a particular challenge in the country's state prison system where often, inmates come in close contact with one another.

“It adds to the understanding that we have a severe undercount of cases in the U.S.,” Leana Wen, adjunct associate professor of emergency medicine at George Washington University, told the wire service. “The case count is likely much, much higher than we currently know because of the lack of testing and surveillance.”

The U.S. has more incarcerated persons than any other country in the world – over 2.3 million were reported in 2017. Michigan, Tennessee and California have all started mass testing in their respective prisons.

The results in those state prisons were similar; Tennessee reported a majority of its positive cases didn't show symptoms, while Michigan reported that “a good number” of the 620 positive cases showed no symptoms of the virus.

Some states, like Florida, New York and Texas are only testing inmates who exhibit symptoms.

“Prison agencies are almost certainly vastly undercounting the number of COVID cases among incarcerated persons,” Michele Deitch, a corrections specialist and senior lecturer at the University of Texas, told Reuters.

“Just as the experts are telling us in our free-world communities, the only way to get ahead of this outbreak is through mass testing.”

Overall in the U.S., COVID-19 has infected over 925,500 people, killing more than 53,000, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
Does this mean that if I commit a crime, get caught, and go to jail, that I will be more likely to be asymptomatic then the general public?

Asking for a friend.
 
I have been thinking all along that our time frame would be close to what Wuhan's was. They were locked down 76 days and if you apply that to when we started our lockdown it puts us near Memorial Day or early June.
I have also been telling my girls June 1 but at least give us some guidance so we have an idea fo what to do with our patients because even when we open and many others things will not be normal until we get a vaccine
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT