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It depends a lot on the margin of the losses. If they were both close losses they would be much better than our actual results.I assume we are all talking about how the OOC affects tourney resume and metrics. If so, a good thought experiment would be to guess what our NET would be today if we had losses to Gonzaga and Arizona instead of Lafayette and UMass. My guess is we are in the high 60s instead of mid 70s. Whereas if we beat the two cupcake teams, we are in the high 30s to low 40s
Note that Mich St beat two 300+ teams in OOC and have a NET 40
I mean really. At the end of the day isn't that the end-all be -all measure?What is the goal for SOS? We are in the 30s now. The higher it is, the less room for error. Let's see if Michigan gets in with their high SOS... total losses is a real concern if we schedule too many tough OOC games.
We might get in and Michigan might get left out bc theirs was a bit too hard and ours was just soft enough
We would have gotten crushed all early season. We were bad even in some cupcake wins. If we had a harder schedule this year we would probably have a couple more losses and be completely out
This explains why you want to play better teams but not why you specifically want the top teams from bad conferences.
Is there some specific reason why playing say Cleveland St is preferable to playing Georgia?
yes. agree.Bottom line 300 is a terrible non conference schedule. You cannot get around that
I will agree it is a very unimpressive schedule. I'm just not sure what impact it has on tourney chances, assuming of course that you win them which any tourney worthy team should.Bottom line 300 is a terrible non conference schedule. You cannot get around that
Exactly- show the committee you’re not afraid to play anybody anywhere.Bottom line 300 is a terrible non conference schedule. You cannot get around that
We play 23 regular season games a year against power conference teams. Is replacing NJIT with like Penn really going to up the fan experience noticeably?Its terrible for fans too...35 plus years of scheduling like this
We play 23 regular season games a year against power conference teams. Is replacing NJIT with like Penn really going to up the fan experience noticeably?
Pike is stubborn? That’s a stretch. If Pike is stubborn I don’t know what to call the other coaches. The guy is nice to a fault sometimes. Never heard him called stubborn. My guess is he will tweak the schedule but stick with what he does because it’s working. The schedule wasn’t the big issue, it was losing to Lafayette. Just don’t lose those games and slightly improve the schedule. If they beat Lafayette we aren’t having this discussion.Pike is very stubborn. He won’t change. And especially won’t change schedule for next year given team will be a work in progress given Geo and Ron graduating etc.
Florida. Seton Hall.How about a decent non conference home opponent once in 30 years...its been about 5 or 6 during that time..unc..duke..who else?
We will continue to get the short end of the stick on the Gavitt and ACC games
It should more like Texas than Penn.We play 23 regular season games a year against power conference teams. Is replacing NJIT with like Penn really going to up the fan experience noticeably?
We play 23 regular season games a year against power conference teams. Is replacing NJIT with like Penn really going to up the fan experience noticeably?
This is a good point but we did lose Myles Young and Mathis. That was a major chunk of last year's team.The thing is - when you know you have a pretty good team returning, there is zero reason not to expect that if your average level of OOC difficulty is a home game against Wagner, your going to come out at least 6-4 (which is what we did in OOC). I understand not scheduling this way in a full on rebuild year when nobody returns - but this year when your saying “best team ever” a min of a 6-4 record should expected.
The goal is to avoid too many losses but also WTF losses to teams like Lafayette and Fordham. Since you never know which given day your team will be a complete no show, the best way to reduce the odds of Lafayette disasters is to schedule fewer games like that.
That would have most likely been another loss. Another loss we can't afford this yearWe had Marquette this year but we scheduled NJIT so the game didn’t happen.
If you do that also calculate our NET if we lost to Gonzaga and Arizona instead of the NJIT and Merrimack games. Can't just cherry pick the OOC lossesI assume we are all talking about how the OOC affects tourney resume and metrics. If so, a good thought experiment would be to guess what our NET would be today if we had losses to Gonzaga and Arizona instead of Lafayette and UMass. My guess is we are in the high 60s instead of mid 70s. Whereas if we beat the two cupcake teams, we are in the high 30s to low 40s
Note that Mich St beat two 300+ teams in OOC and have a NET 40
Well we would have played Marquette instead of DePaul in the Gavitt Games so it would have been fine.This is a good point but we did lose Myles Young and Mathis. That was a major chunk of last year's team.
That would have most likely been another loss. Another loss we can't afford this year
If you do that also calculate our NET if we lost to Gonzaga and Arizona instead of the NJIT and Merrimack games. Can't just cherry pick the OOC losses
If we fall just outside of the bubble, it will be due to a loss and not due to the OOCIf we fall just outside the bubble this year because of our OOC schedule is that going to affect the fan experience noticeably?
That just makes my point even more. Pretty sure our NET would be worse if we exchange those 2 weak wins for 2 strong losses.If you do that also calculate our NET if we lost to Gonzaga and Arizona instead of the NJIT and Merrimack games. Can't just cherry pick the OOC losses
If we fall just outside of the bubble, it will be due to a loss and not due to the OOC
Exactly!!!!!The OOC is the latest criticism by fans who don't want RU to win or make the NCAAs....
If you want to be Michigan this year or Indiana in recent years and overschedule yourselves out of a bid, knock yourselves out.
The bottom line is 13......13 is the normal maximum amount of regular season losses that you don't want to exceed. Once you get past 13 regular season losses. Here are the obstacles.
A) not enough wins.
B) not enough games over .500
C) no chance to experiment and develop your bench.
D) Avoid having a under .500 overall record in your conference
If the NCAA committee starts giving out bids to Oklahoma, Michigan this year because they have a better SOS, then we can have the change made.
The conferences like the Big East, Pac 12 and other leagues absolutely must schedule OOC because their leagues are not deep enough or consistent enough with 7 or 8 bids a year.
The fact that Michigan is being discussed as potentially out because of "too many losses", absolutely contradicts the OOC schedule debate.
We weren’t supposed to be full on terrible - rebuild mode. There was no reason to expect we’d go worse than 6-4 to Wagner types at the RAC. He’s not saying to cherry pick. The idea is to not have many 300 types on the schedule at all.This is a good point but we did lose Myles Young and Mathis. That was a major chunk of last year's team.
That would have most likely been another loss. Another loss we can't afford this year
If you do that also calculate our NET if we lost to Gonzaga and Arizona instead of the NJIT and Merrimack games. Can't just cherry pick the OOC losses
Just one low / mid tier tourney on a neutral floor. That’s it no other changes. Last year’s schedule with Hofstra and a couple teams in the 200s was otherwise fine. The year before we had SFA in there. This year’s was over the top bad. Maybe partly bad luck? You never really know who will be good or bad when these games are scheduled.I'm for tweaking the schedule with slightly tougher cupcakes... but if we play too many tough games OOC, there is little margin for error. Total losses start to become a factor since we will always be playing 10 B1G road games
AgreedJust one low / mid tier tourney on a neutral floor. That’s it no other changes. Last year’s schedule with Hofstra and a couple teams in the 200s was otherwise fine. The year before we had SFA in there. This year’s was over the top bad. Maybe partly bad luck? You never really know who will be good or bad when these games are scheduled.