Does this season make Pike rethink his OOC scheduling?
- Thread starter ouchmyknee
- Start date
I assume we are all talking about how the OOC affects tourney resume and metrics. If so, a good thought experiment would be to guess what our NET would be today if we had losses to Gonzaga and Arizona instead of Lafayette and UMass. My guess is we are in the high 60s instead of mid 70s. Whereas if we beat the two cupcake teams, we are in the high 30s to low 40s
Note that Mich St beat two 300+ teams in OOC and have a NET 40
Note that Mich St beat two 300+ teams in OOC and have a NET 40
It depends a lot on the margin of the losses. If they were both close losses they would be much better than our actual results.
But while people are imagining that they should also imagine where we would be if we had losses to Gonzaga and Arizona instead of wins over Lehigh and Merrimack.
No. and I don't think anyone said that.
You want to play Georgia? Play Georgia? If you can schedule Georgia, schedule Georgia. If you think Georgia is coming is Piscataway, have at it...
And- If you can play in an exempt tournament, you damn well better do it. It's worth the time/effort to play in an exempt tournament. If you don't want to travel to Hawaii to do it..then find one in Philadelphia, or Brooklyn or DC... it ain't hard these days..
No one said "don't play Georgia".
We are saying, If Pike also (or "still") wants to play at JMA or very close to home (because he likes more games and fast-turnarounds and being at home). then fine - do it.. but, don't schedule #333 to do it... schedule a team close to home but whose NET won't hurt you.
Schedule UMBC not Lafayette is what they are saying. No one means play Cleveland St. instead of Georgia.
yes. agree.
but "terrible" may be a confusing term to some.
300 is "not helpful" in almost any likely result. You have to crush the other team for it to become a "helpful" win. At best (with a "average win") it "doesn't really help very much" and (as we've seen) - anything less than an expected result is devastating.
I will agree it is a very unimpressive schedule. I'm just not sure what impact it has on tourney chances, assuming of course that you win them which any tourney worthy team should.
We play 23 regular season games a year against power conference teams. Is replacing NJIT with like Penn really going to up the fan experience noticeably?
How about a decent non conference home opponent once in 30 years...its been about 5 or 6 during that time..unc..duke..who else?
We will continue to get the short end of the stick on the Gavitt and ACC games
Pike is stubborn? That’s a stretch. If Pike is stubborn I don’t know what to call the other coaches. The guy is nice to a fault sometimes. Never heard him called stubborn. My guess is he will tweak the schedule but stick with what he does because it’s working. The schedule wasn’t the big issue, it was losing to Lafayette. Just don’t lose those games and slightly improve the schedule. If they beat Lafayette we aren’t having this discussion.
If we fall just outside the bubble this year because of our OOC schedule is that going to affect the fan experience noticeably?
This is a good point but we did lose Myles Young and Mathis. That was a major chunk of last year's team.
That would have most likely been another loss. Another loss we can't afford this year
If you do that also calculate our NET if we lost to Gonzaga and Arizona instead of the NJIT and Merrimack games. Can't just cherry pick the OOC losses
Well we would have played Marquette instead of DePaul in the Gavitt Games so it would have been fine.
If we fall just outside of the bubble, it will be due to a loss and not due to the OOC
That just makes my point even more. Pretty sure our NET would be worse if we exchange those 2 weak wins for 2 strong losses.
A better OOC schedule would have have given us more opportunities to add to our NET and overcome that albatross.
The OOC is the latest criticism by fans who don't want RU to win or make the NCAAs....
If you want to be Michigan this year or Indiana in recent years and overschedule yourselves out of a bid, knock yourselves out.
The bottom line is 13......13 is the normal maximum amount of regular season losses that you don't want to exceed. Once you get past 13 regular season losses. Here are the obstacles.
A) not enough wins.
B) not enough games over .500
C) no chance to experiment and develop your bench.
D) Avoid having a under .500 overall record in your conference
If the NCAA committee starts giving out bids to Oklahoma, Michigan this year because they have a better SOS, then we can have the change made.
The conferences like the Big East, Pac 12 and other leagues absolutely must schedule OOC because their leagues are not deep enough or consistent enough with 7 or 8 bids a year.
The fact that Michigan is being discussed as potentially out because of "too many losses", absolutely contradicts the OOC schedule debate.
If you want to be Michigan this year or Indiana in recent years and overschedule yourselves out of a bid, knock yourselves out.
The bottom line is 13......13 is the normal maximum amount of regular season losses that you don't want to exceed. Once you get past 13 regular season losses. Here are the obstacles.
A) not enough wins.
B) not enough games over .500
C) no chance to experiment and develop your bench.
D) Avoid having a under .500 overall record in your conference
If the NCAA committee starts giving out bids to Oklahoma, Michigan this year because they have a better SOS, then we can have the change made.
The conferences like the Big East, Pac 12 and other leagues absolutely must schedule OOC because their leagues are not deep enough or consistent enough with 7 or 8 bids a year.
The fact that Michigan is being discussed as potentially out because of "too many losses", absolutely contradicts the OOC schedule debate.
We weren’t supposed to be full on terrible - rebuild mode. There was no reason to expect we’d go worse than 6-4 to Wagner types at the RAC. He’s not saying to cherry pick. The idea is to not have many 300 types on the schedule at all.
marquette would’ve replaced DePaul in the Gavitt games. Still only 1 loss I think.
You also want to play stronger comp just to get better. There’s not a whole lot of value in playing a string of home games where all you need to is show up. And it can be very subtle…. Don‘t play Central Connecticut or FDU from the NEC … play Wagner instead. Instead of a Maine or NJIT from America East, add a Binghamton or Albany.
I'm for tweaking the schedule with slightly tougher cupcakes... but if we play too many tough games OOC, there is little margin for error. Total losses start to become a factor since we will always be playing 10 B1G road games
Just one low / mid tier tourney on a neutral floor. That’s it no other changes. Last year’s schedule with Hofstra and a couple teams in the 200s was otherwise fine. The year before we had SFA in there. This year’s was over the top bad. Maybe partly bad luck? You never really know who will be good or bad when these games are scheduled.
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