Hey BAC.. pinned thread idea.. WHAT WE NEED TO MAKE NCAAs

[PSAL_Hoops]

I think 19 we have a 75/25 chance just eyeballing it now. If we get 18 we are on the bubble whether its right side or not...probably 25/75 but at least we have a dog in the fight

25% seems high. The only path where we’d even be in the conversation would be 5-3 with a first round tourney exit. But the loss would be to a non-contender so even with the 12 wins, it would be very unlikely. That would be our 8th loss to teams not even in the NIT discussion.

We’re not getting in with an 18-14 record. The difference between 19-14 and 18-14 isn’t just one more win vs. Rider. It’s either an extra quad 1 win or not picking up a Q3 loss vs. PSU. We will need it.

 

[bac2therac]

we can go 17-13 and then split...that is 18-14, we could have 6 Q1 wins

you cannot say we ARE NOT getting in, we do not exist in a vacuum. North Carolina currently has no quality wins with 13 of 16 to Q3 and 4 but is in the field today

 

[rutger80]

Wonder how many B1G teams have had a winning conference record and been left out of the tourney? i'd think if we go 11-9 we have a better than 50% chance, dependent of course on the results of other conference bids.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

we can go 17-13 and then split...that is 18-14, we could have 6 Q1 wins

you cannot say we ARE NOT getting in, we do not exist in a vacuum. North Carolina currently has no quality wins with 13 of 16 to Q3 and 4 but is in the field today

I just think those Lafayette and UMass losses hurt too much for us to make historic ground with a bid. Excluding last year - I’d bet our SOS would be materially worse than any other 18 win at large teams. I think at 18 they pick from the stack of gaudy resumes with worse quality wins but a bunch less overall losses.

 

[bac2therac]

I just think those Lafayette and UMass losses hurt too much for us to make historic ground with a bid. Excluding last year - I’d bet our SOS would be materially worse than any other 18 win at large teams. I think at 18 they pick from the stack of gaudy resumes with worse quality wins but a bunch less overall losses.

there is no basis for you to say this...lets move this discussion to my thread

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

there is no basis for you to say this...lets move this discussion to my thread

Am I off base? There must be a way to look up how many 18 or less win teams have gotten at large bids through 2018-19.

As it is, 14 losses is a hard enough sell. Palm recently posted on Michigan’s chances that it’s been since 2011 for a team to get in with 14 losses on selection day and since 2001 without being +4 over 500.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Syracuse, Michigan State on the fence

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