Interesting article on the challenges the B1G will give the selection committee

[RU848789]

Thought this was a good read - some interesting RU comments, below in their comparison of PSU, RU and Ill. Need to keep rooting for SHU to win, as that win is paying huge dividends for us.

Penn State is just 4-4 in the Big Ten and has a nonconference strength of schedule nearing 300, but it has five Quadrant 1 wins and an 8-4 record against Quadrants 1 and 2. The Nittany Lions have wins over Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Georgetown and Alabama.

Rutgers is 6-3 in the league and has the best metrics of the trio -- best NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking, best SOS -- but the Scarlet Knights have just one win away from home and two Quadrant 1 wins. They do have the best nonconference win of the group, though, beating Seton Hall. They also beat Penn State.

And then there is Illinois. The Fighting Illini are tied atop the Big Ten at 7-2 and have road wins at Wisconsin, Purdue and Michigan -- plus home wins over the latter two. They also beat Rutgers. Illinois' nonconference resume is poor, though, with a nonconference SOS in the mid-200s and losses to Miami and Missouri.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-b...wer-rankings-how-big-ten-make-march-difficult

 

[BigLou]

The Big Ten usually gets how many bids - 6,7,8? So to me the question is not how RU, PSU & Illinois compare to each other but how do they compare to the rest of the league. I understand that these 3 schools are not the usual suspects but prior season performances should not come in to play. Based on the ESPN top 16 ranking, it looks like Mich St, Maryland and Iowa are in. RU, PSU and Illinois seem to be the next 3 with Indiana close behind. I think if the season ended today, all 3 are in.

 

[RU848789]

The Big Ten usually gets how many bids - 6,7,8? So to me the question is not how RU, PSU & Illinois compare to each other but how do they compare to the rest of the league. I understand that these 3 schools are not the usual suspects but prior season performances should not come in to play. Based on the ESPN top 16 ranking, it looks like Mich St, Maryland and Iowa are in. RU, PSU and Illinois seem to be the next 3 with Indiana close behind. I think if the season ended today, all 3 are in.

Given how many "experts" are saying the B1G gets 8-9 (and even 10) teams in, if the season ended today, we'd be a lock. Problem is the season doesn't end today. I'm very confident 20 gets us in (including the B1G tourney) and 19 is on the bubble, so let's win 24 and leave no doubt!

 

[RU_DIO]

Tough stretch of games ahead. I think we need to get 21 wins to leave no doubt about us getting in.

 

[Ole Cabbagehead]

For me, Rutgers may have played a sluggish game on Saturday, or they may be coming back down to earth. Even if we are a good team, its a long season, and good teams go into funks. Look at some of our conference mates.

All of this stuff is premature at this point. We are sitting at 15-5, with our next 4 being:

vs. Purdue
vs Michigan (@ MSG)
@ Maryland
vs. Northwestern

If we get to 18 wins over this stretch (3-1) than we will have a lot more clarity. If we fail to get to 18 wins over this stretch, our path to the tourney becomes a lot more difficult, regardless of what anyone else does. From there we will have 4 road games against good teams, and home games against Maryland, Michigan and Illinois.

I am assuming we need 20 wins to get in. Anything less than 20 and it will mean we closed the season on a very bad record for the last 10 games. Along with our overall perception, that will hurt us.

 

[BigLou]

I think we need to do better than 20. We have 5 home games left so winning all 5 gives us 20 wins and a winning conference record. But not having won more on the road is a bad look. 21 means we had to have won at least 1 road game or neutral site tourney game.

 

[RURM85]

The Big Ten usually gets how many bids - 6,7,8? So to me the question is not how RU, PSU & Illinois compare to each other but how do they compare to the rest of the league. I understand that these 3 schools are not the usual suspects but prior season performances should not come in to play. Based on the ESPN top 16 ranking, it looks like Mich St, Maryland and Iowa are in. RU, PSU and Illinois seem to be the next 3 with Indiana close behind. I think if the season ended today, all 3 are in.

Good point as I also feel the article is biased based on prior years results. I believe if the season ended today, all 3 - Rutgers, Illinois and Penn State are in. As of today, the questions are more about Purdue sitting at 11-9 only able to win in-conference games at home; Minnesota sitting at 11-9 overall; Michigan with an in-conference record of 2-6, 4 straight losses and 2 losses at home against Penn State and Illinois; and Ohio State with a 3-6 conference record with losses to Wisconsin and Minnesota at home.

The good news is there's so much more games left to this season and any issues and questions will take care of itself.

 

[RUHotTrumpetMonkeyLove]

Too soon to tell if this is a "soft" bubble year, right? Maybe this is a question for @bac2therac?

 

[RuWishBone]

just need to keep pace and run with the pack and take at least 2 of next 4 games
vs. Purdue
vs Michigan (@ MSG)
@ Maryland
vs. Northwestern
and we will be OK & remain in Top 25 as long as we don't loose 2 in a row.
The teams from 15 thru 50 will be trading wins & losses

 

[Local Shill]

I'll continue to remind everyone that we have 14 wins in the eyes of the committee right now, not 15. So when people say we need 20 or 21 do they mean that many wins in the eyes of the committee or in the eyes of the Rutgers sports information staff?

 

[RUJMM78]

For me, Rutgers may have played a sluggish game on Saturday, or they may be coming back down to earth. Even if we are a good team, its a long season, and good teams go into funks. Look at some of our conference mates.

All of this stuff is premature at this point. We are sitting at 15-5, with our next 4 being:

vs. Purdue
vs Michigan (@ MSG)
@ Maryland
vs. Northwestern

If we get to 18 wins over this stretch (3-1) than we will have a lot more clarity. If we fail to get to 18 wins over this stretch, our path to the tourney becomes a lot more difficult, regardless of what anyone else does. From there we will have 4 road games against good teams, and home games against Maryland, Michigan and Illinois.

I am assuming we need 20 wins to get in. Anything less than 20 and it will mean we closed the season on a very bad record for the last 10 games. Along with our overall perception, that will hurt us.

Spot on comments with particular emphasis on the road games where Rutgers will be the underdog in every game.The biggest thing in Rutgers favor right now are the number of league teams with 4 or less wins.

 

[Local Shill]

just need to keep pace and run with the pack and take at least 2 of next 4 games
vs. Purdue
vs Michigan (@ MSG)
@ Maryland
vs. Northwestern
and we will be OK & remain in Top 25 as long as we don't loose 2 in a row.
The teams from 15 thru 50 will be trading wins & losses

If Rutgers loses to Northwestern (let’s hope not) it will almost certainly be unranked. Way more worried about our NET and picking up a few more quad 1 wins along the way than an AP ranking, though.

 

[bac2therac]

the thing is to ELIMINATE any possible red flags where the committee can look at a metric and justify leaving you out

For Rutgers its road wins

for another Big 10 school it might be non conference sos

for another Big 10 school it might be sheer amount of losses

 

[RUBigFrank]

The # of bids for the conference varies from year to year. At one point Lunardi's bracketology had 12 teams in for Bigten.
The ACC- Bigten challenge usually has a big influence as it has a strong impact on the overall strength of schedule by the conference (Sagarin has the conference rated as the top conference).

So saying 8-9 bids historically does not hold water. Two years ago after a poor challenge result with the ACC the conference received only 4 bids.

 

[RUfinal4]

for Net is Michigan considered a road game or neutral site?

 

[bac2therac]

Too soon to tell if this is a "soft" bubble year, right? Maybe this is a question for @bac2therac?

I will not seriously jump into analysis until after Feb 1 BUT my early glances indicate that the Big 10 schools are set up way better than the ACC/SEC/Pac 12 in terms of metrics so its a huge advantage. Plus there are very few mid majors that are having seasons worthy of at large bids

Important for schools like San Diego State to win the MWC because that is a one bid league this year....ditto for Northern Iowa in the MWC...I think the WCC is a two bid league (Gonzaga, St Marys). Not sure if Liberty could pull off an at large given their metrics

 

[bac2therac]

for Net is Michigan considered a road game or neutral site?

neutral

 

[bac2therac]

Given how many "experts" are saying the B1G gets 8-9 (and even 10) teams in, if the season ended today, we'd be a lock. Problem is the season doesn't end today. I'm very confident 20 gets us in (including the B1G tourney) and 19 is on the bubble, so let's win 24 and leave no doubt!

if the season ended today, RU is in easily as a 6 seed most likely. Alot of games to be played though

 

[Local Shill]

the thing is to ELIMINATE any possible red flags where the committee can look at a metric and justify leaving you out

For Rutgers its road wins

for another Big 10 school it might be non conference sos

for another Big 10 school it might be sheer amount of losses

It seems the three biggest keys left are:
-avoiding a quad 4 home loss to Northwestern, which would be a disaster
-winning any road game (which would likely also be a quad 1 win as a big bonus)
-beating either Maryland or Illinois at home to get another quad 1 win.

 

[RUBigFrank]

Here is something interesting giving us a 62% chance to dance:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracket-predictions/detail/

 

[bac2therac]

losing to Northwestern would be a huge disaster considering RU already has a Q3 loss. Sorry but Northwestern is terrible, I know some are giving them props but come on.

RU needs a road game....for metrics wins at Maryland, Ohio State and Penn State would be the best because but even a win over Purdue. Wisconsin or Michigan will go along way for us. A Q1 road win is a golden ticket....I think the most valuable metric and perception wise is Maryland

beating Maryland at home would be a key. It would be our 2nd biggest win of the year.

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

are the quads determined when you play the team or at season end.

meaning if you beat a team that is NET 1-30 now at home but they drop to 40 at season end— does that turn to a Q2 v. Q1?

 

[bac2therac]

seasons end..so there is movement each day

 

[Scarlet83]

It seems the three biggest keys left are:
-avoiding a quad 4 home loss to Northwestern, which would be a disaster
-winning any road game (which would likely also be a quad 1 win as a big bonus)
-beating either Maryland or Illinois at home to get another quad 1 win.

Last year’s team won 3 B1G AWAY regular season games. I believe this year’s team will win in total at least 2 or more likely 3 B1G games away or MSG. None of these 6 AWAY/Neutral opponents remaining are consistently dominant.

 

[brucelaw8]

Here is something interesting giving us a 62% chance to dance:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracket-predictions/detail/

Silly.Has us at #37.Not factually based and patently ridiculous.

 

[RU848789]

if the season ended today, RU is in easily as a 6 seed most likely. Alot of games to be played though

Yep, I was thinking 6 seed. And I still think we're a 6-7 seed if we win 21-22 in the regular season (21 means we're 12-8 in the B1G, which deserves a 6-7 seed in the toughest confererence in hoops). But that's fun speculation - like 99% of us, all I care about is finally breaking the 29 year tourney drought.

 

[bac2therac]

also not a committee criteria but an obvious intangible is the eye test....so when these committee members see games during the year or during conference tourney time that does factor in somewhat

anyone watching our games can see we are playing like a tournament team at this juncture

 

[RU848789]

I will not seriously jump into analysis until after Feb 1 BUT my early glances indicate that the Big 10 schools are set up way better than the ACC/SEC/Pac 12 in terms of metrics so its a huge advantage. Plus there are very few mid majors that are having seasons worthy of at large bids

Important for schools like San Diego State to win the MWC because that is a one bid league this year....ditto for Northern Iowa in the MWC...I think the WCC is a two bid league (Gonzaga, St Marys). Not sure if Liberty could pull off an at large given their metrics

Utah St. is 55 in Kenpom, so they're a threat to get an at large bid if they finish hot and especially if they beat SDSU (even if they lose to them in their tourney). Agree on MVC and WCC.

 

[RU848789]

losing to Northwestern would be a huge disaster considering RU already has a Q3 loss. Sorry but Northwestern is terrible, I know some are giving them props but come on.

RU needs a road game....for metrics wins at Maryland, Ohio State and Penn State would be the best because but even a win over Purdue. Wisconsin or Michigan will go along way for us. A Q1 road win is a golden ticket....I think the most valuable metric and perception wise is Maryland

beating Maryland at home would be a key. It would be our 2nd biggest win of the year.

It's unlikely, but if we win the rest of our home games and the neutral site UM game, we finish 21-10/12-8 and that's a lock to me, despite only 1 true road win. Agree it's better to get at least one more road win though - it might be worth 2 home wins, i.e., one more road win, no home loss to NW and 20-11/11-9 is probably as good as the scenario above with no more road wins.

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

For me, Rutgers may have played a sluggish game on Saturday, or they may be coming back down to earth. Even if we are a good team, its a long season, and good teams go into funks. Look at some of our conference mates.

All of this stuff is premature at this point. We are sitting at 15-5, with our next 4 being:

vs. Purdue
vs Michigan (@ MSG)
@ Maryland
vs. Northwestern

If we get to 18 wins over this stretch (3-1) than we will have a lot more clarity. If we fail to get to 18 wins over this stretch, our path to the tourney becomes a lot more difficult, regardless of what anyone else does. From there we will have 4 road games against good teams, and home games against Maryland, Michigan and Illinois.

I am assuming we need 20 wins to get in. Anything less than 20 and it will mean we closed the season on a very bad record for the last 10 games. Along with our overall perception, that will hurt us.

This. Three of four puts us squarely on track to dance. Two out of four gets us off track some and we will have to do something unexpected. One or no wins - not even contemplating.

 

[bac2therac]

It's unlikely, but if we win the rest of our home games and the neutral site UM game, we finish 21-10/12-8 and that's a lock to me, despite only 1 true road win. Agree it's better to get at least one more road win though - it might be worth 2 home wins, i.e., one more road win, no home loss to NW and 20-11/11-9 is probably as good as the scenario above with no more road wins.

yes...this is lock because we would have taken home juicy wins over Maryland and Illinois....those will be quad 1 wins and a sweep of Michigan which gives us another q1 win

 

[RUBOB72]

Can not see Rutgers getting in with less than 20 . Ideally need a minimum of 21 to be “almost “ sure. Nothing is sure for Rutgers until we hear Rutger’s name announced on selection Sunday. 13 games remain which includes 1 guaranteed in B1G tourney and could be more. 5 of 12 is great but 6 of 12 gives us something we all want a spot at the Dance. Winning tonite is the ONLY important thing for Rutgers.

 

[bac2therac]

Utah St. is 55 in Kenpom, so they're a threat to get an at large bid if they finish hot and especially if they beat SDSU (even if they lose to them in their tourney). Agree on MVC and WCC.

they are 62 in NET and their wins over Florida and LSU are juicy but they are struggling in league losing 3 road games...Boise St, UNLV and a Q3 loss at Air Force..they will have to win at San Diego State. If they can get that one and avoid many slip ups they put themselves in pretty good shape..if they lose that one they will need to basically run the table the rest of the way in league play...another way they can get back in is making the MWC finals. some good stuff on their resume but I think the road conference woes will continue

 

[dvb91]

Important for schools like San Diego State to win the MWC because that is a one bid league this year....ditto for Northern Iowa in the MWC...I think the WCC is a two bid league (Gonzaga, St Marys). Not sure if Liberty could pull off an at large given their metrics

Also have to worry about conference tourney upsets like UNC or UVA winning the ACC. Definitely a big factor, but as long as we keep our NET relatively high, we might not have to worry as much. If we don't get to 21 (or 20 with more B1G road wins), we'll definitely be rooting for the regular season champs to take their conference tourney, just to ensure the B1G gets their share of the at-large bids (i.e. 9-10 plus champ).

 

[fluoxetine]

The Big Ten usually gets how many bids - 6,7,8? So to me the question is not how RU, PSU & Illinois compare to each other but how do they compare to the rest of the league.

I think we need to do better than 20.

That people continually are posting this stuff is driving me insane. "How many bids does the conference usually get?" is just the most basic level zero analysis and is absolutely ridiculous.

How often does the conference have SEVEN teams clustered between #20 and #40 in the NET. How often does the conference have TWELVE teams in the top 45? Hint: the answer is not "usually".

How often does the ACC have only THREE teams ranked #1-49? Hint: the answer is not "usually".

Do you think they are letting #72 Notre Dame in because the ACC "usually" gets seven bids. Hint: NO THEY ARE NOT.

This. Three of four puts us squarely on track to dance. Two out of four gets us off track some and we will have to do something unexpected. One or no wins - not even contemplating.

We can go 1-3 in the next four and still be a projected tournament team, you people need to step off the ledge. We are not currently a "bubble" team, we are currently an "in" team. 1-3 the next four downgrades us to "bubble", not "out".

 

[216 Row E]

Team Quadrant Wins and Losses Tracker | BracketResearch.com

For those of you that would like current info on Quad wins and losses. And to Shill who keeps harping on the Caldwell game because he's not happy unless he has something to complain about it shows we are far from the only High Major team to play a non division one game.

 

[fluoxetine]

Can not see Rutgers getting in with less than 20 . Ideally need a minimum of 21 to be “almost “ sure. Nothing is sure for Rutgers until we hear Rutger’s name announced on selection Sunday. 13 games remain which includes 1 guaranteed in B1G tourney and could be more. 5 of 12 is great but 6 of 12 gives us something we all want a spot at the Dance. Winning tonite is the ONLY important thing for Rutgers.

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

That people continually are posting this stuff is driving me insane. "How many bids does the conference usually get?" is just the most basic level zero analysis and is absolutely ridiculous.

How often does the conference have SEVEN teams clustered between #20 and #40 in the NET. How often does the conference have TWELVE teams in the top 45? Hint: the answer is not "usually".

How often does the ACC have only THREE teams ranked #1-49? Hint: the answer is not "usually".

Do you think they are letting #72 Notre Dame in because the ACC "usually" gets seven bids. Hint: NO THEY ARE NOT.



We can go 1-3 in the next four and still be a projected tournament team, you people need to step off the ledge. We are not currently a "bubble" team, we are currently an "in" team. 1-3 the next four downgrades us to "bubble", not "out".

Depends on who we are losing to. NW loss qualifies as potentially tourney killing.

 

[bac2therac]

Depends on who we are losing to. NW loss qualifies as potentially tourney killing.

RU can lose to Northwestern and beat Penn State and Wisconsin on the road to make up for it and still have 20 wins.

 

[bac2therac]

Purdue is not a must win, sure I want it because it put us in a great spot but RU can absorb this loss and still do well down the stretch and earn their way in. There are paths.