Interesting article on the challenges the B1G will give the selection committee

[fluoxetine]

Unlikely. I mean, losing to NW would obviously hurt the most out of the possible losses, because it makes good records harder to obtain, but if we end up 20-11 it isn't going to matter if one of the 11 was Northwestern. That just means we traded a bad loss for a better win.

Edit: Was a response to Lou

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

RU can lose to Northwestern and beat Penn State and Wisconsin on the road to make up for it and still have 20 wins.

That’s a tall order BAC. Someone said (Either here or somewhere) you don’t want to give the Committee an excuse to exclude you. That would be one.

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

Unlikely. I mean, losing to NW would obviously hurt the most out of the possible losses, because it makes good records harder to obtain, but if we end up 20-11 it isn't going to matter if one of the 11 was Northwestern. That just means we traded a bad loss for a better win.

Edit: Was a response to Lou

It all depends on what the committee thinks.

 

[bac2therac]

That’s a tall order BAC. Someone said (Either here or somewhere) you don’t want to give the Committee an excuse to exclude you. That would be one.

yes but I am just showing you scenerios because then you also have the Big 10 tourney to pick up quality wins as well. At this juncture no win puts you in but no loss even as bad as Northwestern takes you out, it just means you have to make up for it later. A loss to Nebby would have been pretty bad but RU still could have recovered from it. Sometimes the path to the ncaa tourney hits bumps in the road, Ive seen it for decades for teams.

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

yes but I am just showing you scenerios because then you also have the Big 10 tourney to pick up quality wins as well. At this juncture no win puts you in but no loss even as bad as Northwestern takes you out, it just means you have to make up for it later. A loss to Nebby would have been pretty bad but RU still could have recovered from it. Sometimes the path to the ncaa tourney hits bumps in the road, Ive seen it for decades for teams.

Just would be easier to win most of the games we have left at home (including NW) and steal a few on the road, including the pseudo home game this Saturday.

 

[bac2therac]

Well thats not things usually work

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

they are 62 in NET and their wins over Florida and LSU are juicy but they are struggling in league losing 3 road games...Boise St, UNLV and a Q3 loss at Air Force..they will have to win at San Diego State. If they can get that one and avoid many slip ups they put themselves in pretty good shape..if they lose that one they will need to basically run the table the rest of the way in league play...another way they can get back in is making the MWC finals. some good stuff on their resume but I think the road conference woes will continue

I believe USU's only chance to make the NCAAs is by beating SDSU. The conference has too many lousy teams.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

Ohio State had 18 wins last year and made the NCAAs....and this year's B1G is overall miles better than last year's, even with 13 and 14th teams being under .500

I think fans are very strange and teams around Power 5 conferences have had huge losses this last 4 days that had them in contention and are really on the outside looking in.

Pac 12 teams like Washington have had 3 game losing streaks or Oregon State have lost 2 consecutive home games to USC and UCLA.

NC State lost at Georgia Tech Saturday

Teams like Cuse are trying to play back into the discussion.

The reality is, like it or not.....there is a stark difference in the core teams of the B1G and RU has earned a significant amount of credibility and resume at this time.

I feel like fans here are collectively talking about Caldwell or non Caldwell as if it had any impact on their resume.

We are playing hungry, desperate teams night after night, home and away. There was bound to be a letdown and maybe that was Saturday vs Nebraska. I don't know which B1G team hasn't had a conference loss that was deemed " a deal breaker", but it's not reality based.

Is Ohio State out because they lost at home to Wisconsin and Minnesota....no...

Is Michigan out with home losses to Penn State and Illinois.....no

Who has these high amounts of road wins....I look at overall records and most have 1 or 2 at the most.

RU has a more important road win at Nebraska....I keep seeing mentions of Pitt and St Bonaventure....beating Nebraska on the road, handing them by plenty matters....I would not trade an OOC win at Pitt for a loss at Nebraska.

Once fans realize how difficult this league is, it's getting an enormous amount of earned credit and jealousy from fans of other leagues, because the league is 1st in most (not all) measurements of leagues this year.

It is not going to be "same old Rutgers", if they drop a home game along the way. It's challenging and RU has exceeded by a LOT, the goals anyone had, not because they're overachievers, because this is a legitimate program. At some point, one phantom performance or loss isn't going to change a body of work over 30+ games.

 

[Scarlet83]

Depends on who we are losing to. NW loss qualifies as potentially tourney killing.

No it doesn’t. Why do you think we can be upset by Northwestern and not upset another team like Maryland on the road? Must we always assume only bad things can happen?

 

[bac2therac]

Again road wins matter. Beating Nebby is not the quality road win RU needs

Note that both Penn St and Minny picked up needed road wins this week.

It will do Rutgers well to get one to position themselves in a great spot..not sure why you keep arguing against

 

[RUSCFORMERLYRULOU]

Ohio State had 18 wins last year and made the NCAAs....and this year's B1G is overall miles better than last year's, even with 13 and 14th teams being under .500

I think fans are very strange and teams around Power 5 conferences have had huge losses this last 4 days that had them in contention and are really on the outside looking in.

Pac 12 teams like Washington have had 3 game losing streaks or Oregon State have lost 2 consecutive home games to USC and UCLA.

NC State lost at Georgia Tech Saturday

Teams like Cuse are trying to play back into the discussion.

The reality is, like it or not.....there is a stark difference in the core teams of the B1G and RU has earned a significant amount of credibility and resume at this time.

I feel like fans here are collectively talking about Caldwell or non Caldwell as if it had any impact on their resume.

We are playing hungry, desperate teams night after night, home and away. There was bound to be a letdown and maybe that was Saturday vs Nebraska. I don't know which B1G team hasn't had a conference loss that was deemed " a deal breaker", but it's not reality based.

Is Ohio State out because they lost at home to Wisconsin and Minnesota....no...

Is Michigan out with home losses to Penn State and Illinois.....no

Who has these high amounts of road wins....I look at overall records and most have 1 or 2 at the most.

RU has a more important road win at Nebraska....I keep seeing mentions of Pitt and St Bonaventure....beating Nebraska on the road, handing them by plenty matters....I would not trade an OOC win at Pitt for a loss at Nebraska.

Once fans realize how difficult this league is, it's getting an enormous amount of earned credit and jealousy from fans of other leagues, because the league is 1st in most (not all) measurements of leagues this year.

It is not going to be "same old Rutgers", if they drop a home game along the way. It's challenging and RU has exceeded by a LOT, the goals anyone had, not because they're overachievers, because this is a legitimate program. At some point, one phantom performance or loss isn't going to change a body of work over 30+ games.

No it doesn’t. Why do you think we can be upset by Northwestern and not upset another team like Maryland on the road? Must we always assume only bad things can happen?

Of course it can! But the loss doesn’t go away though. Let’s win games like this we should win and handily.

 

[bac2therac]

And yes a q1 borderline win at Pitt is better than a q3 win at Nebby it just is..and yes a q3 loss at nebby is a negative on the counter side but the committee always favors great wins over bad losses

 

[RW90]

Can not see Rutgers getting in with less than 20 . Ideally need a minimum of 21 to be “almost “ sure. Nothing is sure for Rutgers until we hear Rutger’s name announced on selection Sunday. 13 games remain which includes 1 guaranteed in B1G tourney and could be more. 5 of 12 is great but 6 of 12 gives us something we all want a spot at the Dance. Winning tonite is the ONLY important thing for Rutgers.

God I hope not. :Wink:

 

[RUBOB72]

Yes , winning tonite is the most important thing for Rutgers at this time ... Does that sound clearer now .

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

We're as safe as any team ranked ranked, say between 20 and 40 right now.

Joe Lundari has 11 (!) B1G teams in the tourney right now (RU is a7 seed). We are going to have a TON of Quad 1 and 2 games on our resume.

A terrible finish might be 4-7, + an opening B1G tournament loss. I'll put a middle of the pack B1G record against anyone comparable.

That would put us at 18-13, 10-11. Personally, I think that's right on the bubble. 19 wins is just about in, and 20 is perfectly safe. All this assuming we don't lose to Northwestern.

 

[fluoxetine]

I believe USU's only chance to make the NCAAs is by beating SDSU. The conference has too many lousy teams.

I disagree. I think if USU wins every remaining game they have, except losing twice to SDSU (once in reg season, once in conf tournament), they sneak into the first four at 25-8.

I think they could lose one other game and still have a chance at 24-9, but I would think they are likely out.

Any more losses than that they are well out.

 

[bac2therac]

UT state wins over LSU and Florida are big

 

[WhichReligionIsRight]

I disagree. I think if USU wins every remaining game they have, except losing twice to SDSU (once in reg season, once in conf tournament), they sneak into the first four at 25-8.

I think they could lose one other game and still have a chance at 24-9, but I would think they are likely out.

Any more losses than that they are well out.

5-4 in the Mountain West. Losses at Air Force and Boise State. They play a bunch of Q3 and Q4 teams to end the season. Only one game left with a team having a net rating <100 (SDSU). I don't see it. MWC is very weak this year.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Too soon to tell if this is a "soft" bubble year, right? Maybe this is a question for @bac2therac?

He will tell you way too early....because it is

 

[RU848789]

RU can lose to Northwestern and beat Penn State and Wisconsin on the road to make up for it and still have 20 wins.

Exactly. People shouldn't fixate on 1-2 games, as there are many paths to making it and fewer paths to not making it. To get to 20 wins, overall and 11-9 in the B1G, which means we're in, IMO, means we go 5-6 the rest of the way, which is acceptable given the level of competition we'll be facing. IMO, that brings us from our current 6-7 seed to probably about a 9-10-seed, but in. Yes, I'd like to finish better than 5-6, but I could live with that. Finishing 4-7 to get to 19-12/10-10, is where I'll be worried, although I still think that gets us in, but isn't a lock (depending on who the wins/losses are to and probably also if there are blowout losses in there).

 

[fluoxetine]

T-Rank says we are 1.88 times as likely to make it to the championship game as to miss the tournament entirely.

 

[RU848789]

We're as safe as any team ranked ranked, say between 20 and 40 right now.

Joe Lundari has 11 (!) B1G teams in the tourney right now (RU is a7 seed). We are going to have a TON of Quad 1 and 2 games on our resume.

A terrible finish might be 4-7, + an opening B1G tournament loss. I'll put a middle of the pack B1G record against anyone comparable.

That would put us at 18-13, 10-11. Personally, I think that's right on the bubble. 19 wins is just about in, and 20 is perfectly safe. All this assuming we don't lose to Northwestern.

Minor point, but if people are going to delete the Caldwell win, I think it should be stated, since most people tend to just look at the record without factoring that in. Look at every sports site out there and they list us at 15-5, not 14-5 right now.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

If we go 3-1 next 4, we would be in prime position to get in, 18-6, 9-4 in league. It would put us at 4-4 Q1, and 3-2 q2. Last 7 games has 5 Q1 and 2 Q2 games. 2-5 or 3-4 would lock us in to the tourny, but I don't think this team has that thought process, they want more than that. They were picked 12th in the league is what drives them to win as many as possible.

 

[bac2therac]

He will tell you way too early....because it is

I usually start third week in February and but I will be doing in next week....get me to 10 games in league and I start.

 

[RUJMM78]

Yes , winning tonite is the most important thing for Rutgers at this time ... Does that sound clearer now .

Rutgers doesn't play tonight.

 

[tjb]

PSU fan here. You guys are in great shape.

Over the past ten years:

• Seven Big 10 teams with .500 conference records received bids
• Four teams with .500 conference records were left out

• Four teams with a winning conference record have been left out.
• Four teams with a *losing* conference record have gotten in.

Here's a breakdown:

https://forum.pennstatehoops.com/t/big-10-basketball-2019-20/6037/25?u=tjb


Here's a good way to track things in real time every year - by home losses/away wins*. Right now:

Big Ten +/- Standings as of EOD 01/26 (thru 62 games)

1. Illinois +3
2. Michigan St +2
2. Maryland +2
4. Rutgers +1
4. Wisconsin +1
4. Iowa +1
7. PSU 0
7. Indiana 0
7. Minnesota 0
10. Purdue -1
10. Ohio State -1
12. Michigan -2
12. Nebraska -2
14. Northwestern -4

* Plus one for every road win
Minus one for every home loss

Something to look for:

According to Torvik, you've played the second-easiest schedule in the Big 10 so far.

The good news is you still have only the fifth most-difficult from here out.

You project to have the easiest schedule in the Big 10 when it's all over.

The downside of that is that it probably requires a .500 record to get in. I suspect (without diving too deep) that there are some Big 10 teams that can get in with a sub-.500 record (based on overall and non-con SoS and Quad 1 victories) and that you don't want to gamble on that.

 

[RuWishBone]

just don't want to end up in Dayton in the 1st 4 after a few days Indy

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I usually start third week in February and but I will be doing in next week....get me to 10 games in league and I start.

:HeartEyes:

 

[RU_DIO]

Rutgers doesn't play tonight.

That might be clearer now, lol.

 

[soundcrib]

Beat Purdue!

 

[kapyoche]

Big Ten has parity meaning that Elite Eight is the best we are going to get out of any hot team during the tournament.
None of the teams look like can make it to Final Four.

 

[RUBOB72]

Rutgers doesn't play tonight.

Yes forgot it’s tuesday nite... thanks... retirement is very good ... only problem for most is the days all seem like Saturdays.