Montez - between Clemson and St Johns
- Thread starter BigEastPhil
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Didn’t they both average over 20 mpg on a tournament team this past year with Mathis on the team? Usually players improve and PT goes up, not down year over year when players actually develop (though there are obviously exceptions). I know most don’t agree, but I expect Caleb to average double digit scoring next season and shoot a percentage that’s more aligned with his frosh season. There’s no way that’s not good for 20 mpg.
no Jacob and no Myles means our D is not a strength. No Jacob or Montez in the game means someone else is getting the best player and as important Paul and/or Geo is going to be asked to defend a tougher assignment (who is getting 2nd best?)
the problem is neither are that good on offense.
Losing Young/Johnson will be a big test for who can step up defensively. Down the stretch, though, Mathis wasn't as strong a defender as he was early in the season or the prior year. Not sure if he'd already made up his mind to leave, or was just frustrated that he was not starting.
Starting in February, Mathis was only giving us 15.1 min and 2.3 fouls in that time (which is a whopping 6.0 PF/40). Up until the end of January, he had been giving us 25.8 min and 2.4 pf (just 3.8 PF/40).
It was pretty obvious, in my opinion that Mathis wasnt happy while on the bench. I hope these departures dont impact guys like Mulcahy, Cliff and Jones
It'll impact Mulcahy and Jones by creating more available minutes to be fought for.
Mulcahy and Jones will be happy. More PT for them.
Even though i think it is a mistake for him both from an athletic and academic perspective, good for him. St john's certainly fits into where he is as a player right now.
Even though i think it is a mistake for him both from an athletic and academic perspective, good for him. St john's certainly fits into where he is as a player right now.
Slightly off topic - but it seems that some of you guys are short changing Caleb’s potential. Shouldn’t just the fact that he’ll finally undergo a real off season weight training protocol make a huge difference? He’s 6-7 and already a strong rebounder. Remember that he was rehabbing last off season and had fully expected to red shirt.
Montez brought a toughness we needed when he arrived. He played hard and was a competitor. That being said, the 4 star moniker always stated when discussing him just outlines how speculative it is grading players before they fully mature. He is really not a B10 2 guard. In a wide open slashing lower level he could thrive and hope he does.
Weight training isn't going to suddenly improve his outside shot. His game is really in the midrange, and he needs to focus there instead of lining up outside the arc. When the line was at 20ft 9in his freshman year, he shot .357..... since they moved it back to 22ft 1.75in, he's shot just .242
Same happened to Baker. Prior to moving the line back, he shot .350.... since it's been moved, he's shot .291
Who said anything about 3 point shooting? I predict that the kid is going to produce a much better overall shooting percentage next year than this past season. One reason is simply because he’s going to be stronger and will therefore finish more inside (tying in to my comment about weight training). The other reason is because last year’s shooting (31%) was the exception, not the rule over his career where he otherwise shot better than 41% overall in each of the 2 previous seasons. I predict 43% shooting percentage with 11 ppg and 6 rebounds per game on around 27 minutes played. Your right - he won’t shoot 35% from 3, but I bet he’s better percentage wise than this past year (doesn’t take much) and probably attempts less each game.
Overall, for CM to have a big jump, he has to lay off the threes.
Yes, S&C will help with the 2P game, where I think his back injury was slowing him a bit this year. But he also really ramped up the number of threes he took vs. twos this year - 35.3% of his overall attempts were from the arc vs. 26.3% last year, and he got to the line less (where he's our best FT shooter).
He needs to play closer to the basket overall, and not hang out beyond the three point line.
All I know, is we had no JY two years ago and our backcourt defense was pretty good in 2018-19 despite having to play Kiss for 18 mpg. Paul is a much better defender than Kiss. Caleb and Geo are better than the frosh versions of themselves as defenders. We need to figure out the front court defense. We simply don’t have enough right now to compete. We need a Pauly type. If not him, we need to aim for a Doorson / Carter caliber combo (I’m being realistic as it doesn’t seem that we’re absorbing a double double type from the portal). Everything else really can work itself out IMO - Pike will manage the backcourt. But RHJ and Cliff simply cannot play 80 combined minutes at the 4 and 5. We want RHJ at the 3 as much as possible but even if we end up playing him with Caleb or Jones in the 3-4 punch... the math still says someone (or 2 guys) would need to absorb at least 25 combined minutes minimum in those 2 positions - probably more.
Totally different team and more importantly different identity. Geo and Ron were not leaders and Eugene was taking charges and leading by example. Ron was fighting for PT and Geo was a sophomore. Our best defender was Montez and unfortunately he was at his best defensively as a freshman.
I really don’t think you can make a comparison.
I dont think you can make a comparison to 2019 and 2020. There wasn’t a real drop off on D despite Eugene leaving because of the emergence of Myles. He replaced Eugene’s charges with blocked shots.
this year Jacob and Myles held together the team defensively. I believe without them we would have been putrid defensively.
I really don’t think you can make a comparison.
I dont think you can make a comparison to 2019 and 2020. There wasn’t a real drop off on D despite Eugene leaving because of the emergence of Myles. He replaced Eugene’s charges with blocked shots.
this year Jacob and Myles held together the team defensively. I believe without them we would have been putrid defensively.
I guess the point I’m really making is that I think physical development this offseason is going to help him play stronger inside and draw more fouls.
Actually, thinking about his 5.7 ppg more, it really translates into 7+ in a normal season with 10-12 games averaged in against cupcakes (he didn’t play SH, FDU or Hofstra). He’s the best returning defensive player on the team by far - next best is not really even close. For this reason, I see almost no chance that his minutes don’t increase since Pike values D so much. 11 ppg with 4 or so extra minutes seems very doable for him.
11 ppg and 6 rpg would not be a “leap” from where he’s at. Again, he didn’t play any cupcakes, and he shot a full 10% better in overall shooting in his first 2 seasons than last year. Assuming he can do again what he did in 2 of the past 3 years (shoot 41% from the floor - again 10-12 games vs. horrible teams virtually assures he won’t average 31% from the floor again) - then there’s almost no chance he doesn’t average double digits.
I really don’t care what he does on offense against the cupcakes in blow outs by the way (but my point is he’s going to have a better looking overall stat line by default). He’ll be playing for his defense regardless. He’s going to play a ton regardless of how good Jones turns out to be next year. We will need his defense and he can play a lot of different positions. That translates into PT for Pike - period.
I'm a Caleb fan as well. He led the team in steals, was in the top three in rebounding, offensively and defensively, and is pretty far down on the turnover numbers. He also had tips, 50/50 balls and was very active offensively and defensively. He has good form on his shot and just needs to put in the time to improve his percentages, including the 3pt shot since it is part of the college game. I'm sure that he knows exactly what he needs to do (the weight room is part of it, as is playing games now and in the summer). I think he'll be a main contributor to the team.
He’ll be playing out of position again offensively and it’ll be more of the same. He’s improved in the turnover department but otherwise his shooting was horrendous and he went to the line way less. Defensively he’s useful. His rebounding went up but he played the four a fair bit so of course those numbers will have gone up a bit.
Will he become a consistent and reliable perimeter shooter?
he is long and most nights a very willing defender. On the returning squad he has to play a lot. He will do the things others in the returning rotation haven’t been willing do defensively.
he is long and most nights a very willing defender. On the returning squad he has to play a lot. He will do the things others in the returning rotation haven’t been willing do defensively.
Does RU win the Clemson game without Caleb McConnell??
It isn't a stat driven sport, it comes down to a factor on the team and within the flow of what RU does well. There are more positives to the table brought by McConnell than not. I am not a health expert but he could be considered at 75 to 80% during his ramp up timeframe to get on the court and has probably not been over 80% healthy in any parts of the last 2 seasons.
If he can get an actual full offseason outside of rehabilitation off a surgery or procedure, I feel fairly certain he's better than what he has shown. If we are judging a player at 75 to 80% and he's better in most categories than a departing player who is stronger, faster and healthier and fits within the team concepts of how RU plays, I'm not sure what the concerns are here.
If I am Mike Anderson and have a choice of all of the remaining RU guards, Anderson would probably take Geo 1st and Mathis 2nd. That's not a knock on Caleb, Mulcahy or the 2 frosh Miller and Jones), just based on what you need Mathis to do well, fits what St John's does well.
I think Chop is right about the impact of the 3 point line moving back on Caleb’s perimeter shooting. My point is that just by virtue of playing more minutes each game (which in my opinion is inevitable) and playing a third of the schedule against cupcakes, his ~6 ppg output would likely be around 9/10 ppg and there’s just no way a year of conditioning doesn’t help at all in terms of going up stronger and finishing more inside. 11 ppg feels like the Vegas over/under line, not the “leap” Soho implied - regardless of how much his 3-pt shooting improves (and it feels like a safe bet that it can’t get worse than last year).
Speaking of in conference play, the prior season he did shoot worse, 18% from 3 in big ten play in more minutes than he played in 2020. So, yeah he could get better but no reason to have confidence he will be a reliable 3pt shooter. I hope he does but we shouldn’t count on that at all.
Huh? The Vegas lines I provided were for the WHOLE season - not BIG play. Your creating stats here to suit your negative view of him as a player. 11 ppg / 6 rpg for the 2021-22 season which will include ~33% cupcake opponents is not a massive “leap” from where he’s at.
In 2019-20 he shot 28% from 3 overall, not 18%. He shot a steady 41% from the floor overall in his first 2 years which included cupcakes in the average that last season didn’t. There is zero reason to assume he’ll repeat 31% overall shooting next season - none whatsoever. And he’s not going to be earning PT for his shooting ability - his strengths are every other area of the game.
I mean, it's possible the injury McConnell was dealing with last year that kept him on the bench through the early part of this season impacted his shot.... but I think it's more likely that his range really only reliably goes out to about 20-21 feet or so. I think he needs to be more of an "in case of emergency, break glass" three point shooter, and ~85% of his shots should come inside the arc.
If CM were able to hit the S&C regimen and get up to 205 lbs or so, I think he'd be more effective inside - both offensively and defensively. If he could live within about an 18 foot radius of the basket, hitting midrange jumpers and layups while cleaning up the glass and boxing defenders out of the way for penetration.... he would be much more valuable.
I'd like to see him taking 3+ FTs a game, ideally closer to 4 (for comparison, E. Omoruyi took 4.5/game his last season here). That means getting closer to the basket and forcing opponents to defend his shot - which they just don't do on the arc, since they'd give him that shot all day every day right now.
IF (and this is a HUGE if) he got back to his frosh/soph year 2P% of about .450, dropped his 3P rate down to about 15% while taking the same # of shots as this past year, and got up to 4 FTs a game.... he'd get about 10.7 pts/4.9 rb in 26 min.
Edit: And as I reread that.... it sounds like CM playing more at the PF spot offensively. Which would make him a bit undersized (especially in weight), which goes back to S&C work with a (hopefully) healthy offseason. Maybe Harper/McConnell go SF/PF on offense, and PF/SF on defense?
If CM were able to hit the S&C regimen and get up to 205 lbs or so, I think he'd be more effective inside - both offensively and defensively. If he could live within about an 18 foot radius of the basket, hitting midrange jumpers and layups while cleaning up the glass and boxing defenders out of the way for penetration.... he would be much more valuable.
I'd like to see him taking 3+ FTs a game, ideally closer to 4 (for comparison, E. Omoruyi took 4.5/game his last season here). That means getting closer to the basket and forcing opponents to defend his shot - which they just don't do on the arc, since they'd give him that shot all day every day right now.
IF (and this is a HUGE if) he got back to his frosh/soph year 2P% of about .450, dropped his 3P rate down to about 15% while taking the same # of shots as this past year, and got up to 4 FTs a game.... he'd get about 10.7 pts/4.9 rb in 26 min.
Edit: And as I reread that.... it sounds like CM playing more at the PF spot offensively. Which would make him a bit undersized (especially in weight), which goes back to S&C work with a (hopefully) healthy offseason. Maybe Harper/McConnell go SF/PF on offense, and PF/SF on defense?
I clearly was referring to his three point shooting being terrible in conference play. That’s it. Nothing made up. He’s 18% and 21% from 3 in conference play back to back seasons.
As far as making up stats, you are making up Vegas lines lol. I’m just showing his conference three point shooting. His ppg numbers mean nothing if his efficiency is still putrid. Sure, maybe he gets 11ppg that doesn’t mean anything.
If we want to use his whole body of work his efg% has regressed every season (all games included or conference only we can take our pick).
Important to note is that if he even comes back next year to his average after three seasons that would put him as the worst shooter on last years team (rotation only, which is no surprise) conference only maybe 2nd worst all-in.
So even if he shows improvement for the first time in his career in offensive efficiency he’s still not a good offensive player.
Yeah yeah yeah we know he plays for his defense. Like I said in my first post he gives good defense. But this team needs offense too.
This is all just to say again there is no reason to bank on improved numbers and if he gets back to his average that still leaves us in bad shape.
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Ideally he just shoots less and we can get the balls in the hands of Geo/Ron more for those 2p field goals at a better clip and take those 45% 2s down even further getting them to our 30%+ 3pt shooters.
But I see where you’re going. Just a lot of effort for our least efficient scorer.
And a lot of that, imo, goes back to taking WAY too many 3P shots for his ability level. That isn't his game, and he's been settling for more and more shots outside the arc. His FTr has dropped each year, meaning he's taking shots further from the rim - and his 3PAr dropped into his soph year as the line got moved back, but jumped back up again this year.
If he focused more on getting to the rim and taking midrange shots, and stopped looking for (or settling for) threes, his eFG% would go up.
I predicted he’ll score around 11 ppg and 6 rpg on the season on 27 minutes played. You followed up by saying that would be a major leap for him. I explained why it’s not - part of which relates to 1/3 the season being against cupcakes which wasn’t the case last year. You countered that by pointing to BIG only 3 point stats for 2019-20? Has nothing to do with his ability to score 11 ppg on next season.
It's possible for him to do that - again, the keys would be sharply reducing his 3PA by half to two thirds and working to get to the rim twice or more as often (and along with that, the FT line). If he just tries to do what he's been doing the last two years, but healthier and with modest gains year to year.... he won't hit those targets.
Ok. I made things more confusing than needed.
To wrap up the topic:
Your point: Caleb will score more because he will play more.
My point: Thats not a good thing.
Some details for those who are following along.
In 2019 at 41% in 2021, Caleb
average 21.4 minutes for 6.7 points per game. OOC included. His efg% this season was 9th worst out of 9 rotation players in conference play.
In 2020, at 31% Caleb averaged 22.9 minutes for 5.7 points per game. Conference only obviously. Conference only his efg% was 8th worst out of 8 conference rotation players.
Crucially, even if he got to 9/10/ 11pts per game on 27 minutes it’s not a good thing even if he were to improve next year to his career average!
It's not a good thing if he keeps playing the style he's been playing (and, to be fair, there's no reason to believe he will suddenly change that).
If he started playing closer to the basket, getting more 2P shots and FTs, and stopped taking more than maybe 1 three a game.... he could probably get his eFG% up to about .450 or so (and TS% over .500), which is still pretty bad - but when taken together with his rebounding, defense, and other intangibles, would justify him getting 25+ min/g
Really hoping a healthy offseason will do him good.
His statistical improvement year over year in all other areas of the game besides shooting aren’t just “a little” impressive.
He only played major conference opponents (and played only a minute and a half more per game) yet he doubled his steals and blocks output per game. He cut down of turnovers per game by 43%. He grabbed a half a rebound more per game (that’s pretty impressive with zero cupcakes in the 2020-21 numbers). Even showed modest improvement in assists and FT percentage. Literally every category improved last year (some materially) except active game shooting. And he had no strength conditioning at all last pre season. There’s every reason to expect him to continue to show growth in things like rebounding, blocks, etc. after a real off season. He was the one bright spot on the offensive glass. I think with a year of conditioning, he’s going to finish more of those put backs which will improve his scoring numbers even if he remains an overall poor scorer.
These other contributions are the reasons he’s going to play a ton regardless of his shooting development. The point I was making is that if he exactly replicated his shooting percentage / attempt pattern from 2019-20 over 27 minutes next season he’d already be at 8.5 ppg. Throw in another put back or two a game and that would put him right at the 11 mark without a massive improvement to overall shot selection or perimeter shooting. By no means would that make him efficient on offense - but he’s going to be playing for his defensive ability.
Wait a second. Apples to apples 2019 to 2020 in conference per 100 possessions
2p% down 44% to 32%
3% up 18% to 21%
Reb down 10.6 to 10.3
Asst up 3.8 to 4
Stls up 1.8 to 4.2
Blk up .3 to .8
TO down 3.7 to 1.7
Fouls up 4.2 to 5.7
FTa down 4.1 to 2.8
@RUChoppin
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Not sure where I said anything was "a little" impressive? Were you responding to someone else?
You didn’t. The quotes were intended to emphasize my own view that his strides in other areas of his game currently justify the projection of 27 mpg right now based on next year’s expected returning personnel.
You said an improvement to 45% shooting would justify 25+ and I think that level improvement is setting the bar too high relatively (i.e. perhaps undervaluing his other contributions?). In his career, Geo has never broken 41% shooting (Caleb did so in his first 2 seasons). RHJ broke 45% only once. (As a side note -Soho’s favorite player Tez never broke 38.3%).
But the guy we are talking about, Caleb, earns PT for his defense, not his offense. Why should his shooting game need to surpass everyone else’s on a percentage basis to earn starter minutes? He’s by far the best returning defender on the team. It’s not really close.
eFG%, not shooting %.... it accounts for 3P buckets being worth 50% more than 2P buckets.
Baker's eFG% has been: .460, .437, .461, .486
Harper's eFG% has been: .484, .515, .509
By contrast, McConnell's gone from .492, to .447, to .353.... as his 3P% has fallen off, and he suddenly started shooting more of them last year relative to his 2P attempts.
This year, the three worst shooters in the rotation from an eFG% perspective were Baker (.486), Mathis (.432), and McConnell (.353).
TS% also factors in FTs.... and McConnell's gone from .548, to .489, to .384 - that has to get back up over .450 and closer to .500.
This year, the three worst shooters in the rotation from a TS% perspective were Baker (.503), Mathis (.454), and McConnell (.384)
McConnell either has to start getting more efficient with the ball on offense, or as RUsojo suggested he needs to start taking fewer shots.
Got it. Fair enough. I misunderstood that your 45% was reflective of the eFG% which was obviously higher (44.7%) than the 41% straight up percentage he shot for 2019-20. The point I was making was that I expect him to at least match his shooting percentage from that year (whichever metric you look at). Every player, not just him should improve in aggregate from 2020-21 where so few cupcakes were played (and Caleb didn’t play any).
