Nate Silver CFB Playoff Projections - OSU 90%, PSU 20%

[Doctor Worm]

I found this interesting. Obviously it imbeds two levels of uncertainty - who wins the games next week, and what the committee will do in response to those results.

To me the most interesting thing was that he has PSU as just a maybe EVEN IF things break their way. For instance, if Colorado opens the door for them by beating Washington, he things there's a reasonable chance the committee takes Colorado over PSU.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

[R1950]

The committee's goal is to put the 4 best teams in the playoffs. In the past, all of the conference champs selected by the committee were no more than 1-loss teams. Multiple 2-loss conference champs this year opens the door for many possibilities but anyone that thinks that OSU isn't one of the 4 best teams in CF is just walking around with hate blinders on. Keep in mind, last year 1-loss BIG conference runner-up Iowa was voted the 5th team in ahead of PAC 12 champ, 2-loss Stanford in the final committee vote/selection. Also, the resumes have to be factored in. Don't know of any other teams out there that had to play Oklahoma, Wisky, and PSU on the road/prime time in miserable weather conditions with a super young team (dead last,128 out of FBS 128 teams). Factor in Nebraska and Mich and I just have to believe it will be darn hard to leave them out.

 

[Rokodesh]

Whatever Nate Silver says, take the opposite

 

[Knight Shift]

If Colorado wins the PAC 12 championship they are in. They lost to Michigan and USC. Penn State lost to freaking Pitt and and got throttled by Michigan.
Penn State has a chance if Clemson loses the ACC championship game.
Wisconsin has a better shot of getting in if they win the B1G championship with losses to Ohio State and Michigan.

 

[ArminRU]

So odd that the winner of the B1G may not be in the playoff

 

[Knight Shift]

So odd that the winner of the B1G may not be in the playoff

And it is beautiful that PSU will/may be excluded. F Penn State.

 

[ArminRU]

And it is beautiful that PSU will/may be excluded. F Penn State.

[cheers]

 

[Knight Shift]

Seems a fair number of BWI posters hate the B1G, and it will be hilarious to watch PSU left out even if they win the B1G championship.

 

[brgRC90]

Penn State doesn't belong in the playoff. I suspect they won't win the Big Ten championship so it won't matter anyway.

 

[Caliknight]

Nate Silver is the Yugo of polls now.

A complete joke.

 

[RuSnp]

If Colorado wins the PAC 12 championship they are in. They lost to Michigan and USC. Penn State lost to freaking Pitt and and got throttled by Michigan.
Penn State has a chance if Clemson loses the ACC championship game.
Wisconsin has a better shot of getting in if they win the B1G championship with losses to Ohio State and Michigan.

Colorado winning the PAC 12 opens the door for Michigan IMO. Mich absolutely throttled PSU. They also beat Wisconsin and under this scenario would also have the Pac12 champ and a double OT loss to #2 OSU on the resume. Also, the iowa loss also doesn't look as bad with what they did to Nebraska this week.

If the committee is really committed to the "best four teams" how could they honestly say PSU or Colorado deserves to be in over the team that beat them up head to head?

Going to very interesting to see. Imagine two BIG teams in the playoff but not the actual champ?

 

[Knight Shift]

Colorado winning the PAC 12 opens the door for Michigan IMO. Mich absolutely throttled PSU. They also beat Wisconsin and under this scenario would also have the Pac12 champ and a double OT loss to #2 OSU on the resume. Also, the iowa loss also doesn't look as bad with what they did to Nebraska this week.

If the committee is really committed to the "best four teams" how could they honestly say PSU or Colorado deserves to be in over the team that beat them up head to head?

Going to very interesting to see. Imagine two BIG teams in the playoff but not the actual champ?

Can't disagree.
If there was ever an argument for more teams being added, this year would make the case. Take the 6 top ranked teams. #1 and #2 get a bye. Teams 3-6 play in for the CFP. The play-in games could be early in the bowl cycle.

 

[dicemen99]

Colorado winning the PAC 12 opens the door for Michigan IMO. Mich absolutely throttled PSU. They also beat Wisconsin and under this scenario would also have the Pac12 champ and a double OT loss to #2 OSU on the resume. Also, the iowa loss also doesn't look as bad with what they did to Nebraska this week.

If the committee is really committed to the "best four teams" how could they honestly say PSU or Colorado deserves to be in over the team that beat them up head to head?

Going to very interesting to see. Imagine two BIG teams in the playoff but not the actual champ?

Maybe the same way they can say tOSU deserves to be in over the team that beat them H-T-H. Which tOSU does deserve IMO.

You guys are too funny with the PSU hate, bending it all kinds of ways. Somebody posting about the 3 point loss to Pitt on the road as a reason not to be in, while Clemson lost to the same Pitt squad at home but is in.

Michigan has lost 2 out of their last 3, including one to Iowa a week after PSU throttled Iowa 41-14 at Iowa. They are a very good team, but not going to go.

The playoff as it stands right now should be Bama, tOSU, Clemson, Washington. If Washington or Clemson trip up, winner of B1G will go. If PSU wins they will have two wins over Top 10 teams, 3 over Top 25 teams, will have won a conference that includes four Top 10 teams, and will have finished 11-2 without a loss since September against a schedule that will finish in the top 15 in difficulty. To say that Colorado - who's best win is against Utah this year - deserves to go is ludicrous.

 

[RuSnp]

Can't disagree.
If there was ever an argument for more teams being added, this year would make the case. Take the 6 top ranked teams. #1 and #2 get a bye. Teams 3-6 play in for the CFP. The play-in games could be early in the bowl cycle.

The more and more I think about it, is there any realistic scenario PSU gets in?

Alabama - in and probably still would be ranked above PSU even with a loss to Florida.

OSU - IMO in. They had the best resume in the country BEFORE beating Mich.

Clemson - can't see them losing to vtech and if they win they're in with auburn and FSU as quality wins.

So that leaves one spot.

I think the PSU fan has to root for Wash to win in (very) unimpressive fashion and they'd still need to blowout Wisconsin, a team that OSU, LSU, and Mich couldn't do much offensively against.

In that scenario, the committee would still have to bypass Michigan who blew them out, and has to keep a one loss pac12 champ Washington out. Unlikely.

And if Colorado wins, as I said, I think that puts Mich in, unless Wisconsin beats PSU. Then I think Wisconsin would sneak in as #4.

 

[RuSnp]

Maybe the same way they can say tOSU deserves to be in over the team that beat them H-T-H. Which tOSU does deserve IMO.

You guys are too funny with the PSU hate, bending it all kinds of ways. Somebody posting about the 3 point loss to Pitt on the road as a reason not to be in, while Clemson lost to the same Pitt squad at home but is in.

Michigan has lost 2 out of their last 3, including one to Iowa a week after PSU throttled Iowa 41-14 at Iowa. They are a very good team, but not going to go.

The playoff as it stands right now should be Bama, tOSU, Clemson, Washington. If Washington or Clemson trip up, winner of B1G will go. If PSU wins they will have two wins over Top 10 teams, 3 over Top 25 teams, will have won a conference that includes four Top 10 teams, and will have finished 11-2 without a loss since September against a schedule that will finish in the top 15 in difficulty. To say that Colorado - who's best win is against Utah this year - deserves to go is ludicrous.

It's not hate at all. I think you guys have had an amazing year and the future looks bright over there.

I'm just really amazed by how this year's playoff is shaping up. If I were you guys believe me id be screaming head to head too!

 

[GSGS]

The playoff as it stands right now should be Bama, tOSU, Clemson, Washington. If Washington or Clemson trip up, winner of B1G will go. If PSU wins they will have two wins over Top 10 teams, 3 over Top 25 teams, will have won a conference that includes four Top 10 teams, and will have finished 11-2 without a loss since September against a schedule that will finish in the top 15 in difficulty. To say that Colorado - who's best win is against Utah this year - deserves to go is ludicrous.

If the playoff committee takes a 2nd B1G team, Michigan would be most deserving. Both Michigan and PSU have 2 losses, but ...
Michigan beat 49-10. Not like it was a close game or a fluke like PSU's home win vs. tOSU.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

PSU's conference schedule has to be the weakest of the Power 5 contenders.....at Rutgers At Indiana, at Purdue, at Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State.

There is one tough road game and any of the tough games were at home in the 9 games they played.......5 home conference games and no Wisconsin (neutral field), no Nebraska and lost at Pittsburgh.......PSU and USC would be a very interesting Rose Bowl type of game.

They have maxed out their roster and Barkley is the best player in the conference (yes that includes the vastly overrated Peppers among others, Curtis Samuel and a host of others in the league). I think they have that Michigan State potential of last year....Sparty lucked into the win vs Michigan and somehow beat Ohio State on the road, but were overmatched vs Alabama and weren't better than 2 loss Stanford, who played a tougher schedule......PSU is definitely better than I thought starting the year as Franklin really didn't show much, but new coordinators on both sides of the ball and shedding Hackenburg (who is a bust for the Jets), has turned it around.

 

[CranfordKnight]

Whatever Nate Silver says, take the opposite

You'd lose about 95% of the time and then cry about it and blame him.

 

[T2Kplus10]

I found this interesting. Obviously it imbeds two levels of uncertainty - who wins the games next week, and what the committee will do in response to those results.

To me the most interesting thing was that he has PSU as just a maybe EVEN IF things break their way. For instance, if Colorado opens the door for them by beating Washington, he things there's a reasonable chance the committee takes Colorado over PSU.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Alabama and OSU are 100% locks for the CFP - and this is true even if Alabama loses to FL for some reason. No 2 loss teams will jump either of these.

As for the others - Clemson and Wash are in if they win. If they both lose, B1G may get team #2 (UM if PSU wins or Wisky if they win).

 

[oldtimer67]

I found this interesting. Obviously it imbeds two levels of uncertainty - who wins the games next week, and what the committee will do in response to those results.

To me the most interesting thing was that he has PSU as just a maybe EVEN IF things break their way. For instance, if Colorado opens the door for them by beating Washington, he things there's a reasonable chance the committee takes Colorado over PSU.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Pretty much agree with everything, BUT completely underestimates Michigan. I think their chances of making the playoffs are equal to PSU and Wisky. We will see on Tuesday.

 

[RU848789]

Alabama and OSU are 100% locks for the CFP - and this is true even if Alabama loses to FL for some reason. No 2 loss teams will jump either of these.

As for the others - Clemson and Wash are in if they win. If they both lose, B1G may get team #2 (UM if PSU wins or Wisky if they win).

This is exactly right. OSU is 100% in, as is Bama, and PSU is 99% out (they need a miracle of losses by others and some other help to get in). I'm amazed anyone is even talking about OSU not being in.

 

[AshSaturday]

And it is beautiful that PSU will/may be excluded. F Penn State.

For the 1st half at least Penn State barely looked like a good team vs Rutgers.

 

[Doctor Worm]

This is exactly right. OSU is 100% in, as is Bama, and PSU is 99% out (they need a miracle of losses by others and some other help to get in). I'm amazed anyone is even talking about OSU not being in.

Actually, Silver is not saying that at all, at least not about Bama and PSU.

The reason Alabama looks like a lock is that he believes they are a lock to beat Florida. But if the Gators pull the upset, then he drops Alabama's chances way down to 44%, pending other outcomes. I'm with you on this one, I don't see that at all. I think Alabama is a lock win or lose.

Also, the reason he has PSU is only 20% is that in order to get into the conversation,
they need to win a coin-flip game. If they do, then their chances rise to 41%, pending other outcomes. Add a Washington loss and their chances improve to 63%. Make it a Clemson loss INSTEAD of a Washington loss, and their chances improve to 73%. So yes, they do need help, but it's hardly in the "miracle" range. I think Silver has this right.

 

[RU_Planning]

Nate Silver is the Yugo of polls now.

A complete joke.

You know he's not a pollster right?

 

[RU1977]

Go Wisconsin!

 

[RU848789]

Actually, Silver is not saying that at all, at least not about Bama and PSU.

The reason Alabama looks like a lock is that he believes they are a lock to beat Florida. But if the Gators pull the upset, then he drops Alabama's chances way down to 44%, pending other outcomes. I'm with you on this one, I don't see that at all. I think Alabama is a lock win or lose.

Also, the reason he has PSU is only 20% is that in order to get into the conversation,
they need to win a coin-flip game. If they do, then their chances rise to 41%, pending other outcomes. Add a Washington loss and their chances improve to 63%. Make it a Clemson loss INSTEAD of a Washington loss, and their chances improve to 73%. So yes, they do need help, but it's hardly in the "miracle" range. I think Silver has this right.

I wasn't referring to Silver at all - I was agreeing with T's post and then making my own comments. Bama and OSU are 100% in no matter what and PSU needs to win (unlikely) and a lot of help (unlikely) to get in - maybe not quite miracles, but very low probability, plus with PSU I like to focus on the negative for them, lol.

 

[RuSnp]

Actually, Silver is not saying that at all, at least not about Bama and PSU.

The reason Alabama looks like a lock is that he believes they are a lock to beat Florida. But if the Gators pull the upset, then he drops Alabama's chances way down to 44%, pending other outcomes. I'm with you on this one, I don't see that at all. I think Alabama is a lock win or lose.

Also, the reason he has PSU is only 20% is that in order to get into the conversation,
they need to win a coin-flip game. If they do, then their chances rise to 41%, pending other outcomes. Add a Washington loss and their chances improve to 63%. Make it a Clemson loss INSTEAD of a Washington loss, and their chances improve to 73%. S

I wasn't referring to Silver at all - I was agreeing with T's post and then making my own comments. Bama and OSU are 100% in no matter what and PSU needs to win (unlikely) and a lot of help (unlikely) to get in - maybe not quite miracles, but very low probability, plus with PSU I like to focus on the negative for them, lol.

Yep. This. Plus this is "careful what you wish for" type stuff. All these things breaking for them gets you a #4 seed and a date with Nick Saban.

Michigan State still hasn't recovered from that ash kicking last year.

 

[TheHandOfChaos]

The committee's goal is to put the 4 best teams in the playoffs. In the past, all of the conference champs selected by the committee were no more than 1-loss teams. Multiple 2-loss conference champs this year opens the door for many possibilities but anyone that thinks that OSU isn't one of the 4 best teams in CF is just walking around with hate blinders on. Keep in mind, last year 1-loss BIG conference runner-up Iowa was voted the 5th team in ahead of PAC 12 champ, 2-loss Stanford in the final committee vote/selection. Also, the resumes have to be factored in. Don't know of any other teams out there that had to play Oklahoma, Wisky, and PSU on the road/prime time in miserable weather conditions with a super young team (dead last,128 out of FBS 128 teams). Factor in Nebraska and Mich and I just have to believe it will be darn hard to leave them out.

If the committee truly put the 4 best teams in the playoffs both OSU and UM would be in, regardless of UMs double overtime loss. PSU was a wtf game for OSU everyone knows that.

There is a political component to this........

 

[Doctor Worm]

The playoff picture is clarifying. Washington is now in. Alabama and Clemson win tonight, they're in. The only remaining question would be which B1G team gets picked. We all expect it to be OSU but you never know. If either Alabama or Clemson lose, then things get interesting.

 

[ruwarrior]

Whatever Nate Silver says, take the opposite

you mean like this?

http://mashable.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-wins/#I_tGEqnhikqN