OT: 2018 Preakness. Justify will run for the Triple Crown.
- Thread starter WhiteBus
- Start date
I hope a lot of people feel the way you do and we can get good odds on Justify.
Your trying to say winning the Triple Crown doesn't add to breeding fees? I think your so wrong I don't even know where to start.
Doesn’t need to. Just needs to win by a whisker.
First though I didn't post again had the exacta but it would have been on my 3rd ticket ($6- would have had good magic and quip on the others). Also time my bookie Piscataway Mike brother did a card show instead of bet today. Could have used the $20 as I have savings and a buck in the bank. Also for the 1st time in a long time responsible for the rent and unless I get a job this week won't be able to pay it. Could have used the net $19 or so.
As for the triple crown possibility I surely think it's possible but not necessarily likely. Justify looked a bit gassed at the end and Bravazo barely missed. The Belmont stakes is about half a mile longer. The problem with Belmont is that certain horses with the pedigree for the Belmont (and have been aimed for Belmont ) await him as well as other Derby horses who didn't race in the Preakness including audible. You also gotta think Bravazo will be back and the field might include the impressive winner of the race before the Preakness (Axeman? a Winstar/ Baffert horse?)
On the positive side Justify is a big competitive boy who ls to run. I saw him bite the latch of his stall pre Derby. He has incredible heart and will get a week rest over what he had today though gotta think he won't be completely fresh.
Someone said the Byer was only 97 today down from 3- 100+ figures earlier. Then again how many horses have 97 byer races besides Justify this year?
In the end my guess right now is that assuming Justify recovers, it will be a real close race in the Belmont. My worry (I was there for the triple crown 3 years ago with Pharoah and in 2004) is that a 2004-like Belmont Stakes occurs where a big hearted game Justify is just tired enough in the final 1/8 to 1/16 where he slows immensely last minute and is passed right before the wire by a fresh Birdstone type horse. I was in general admission standing right on front of the 1/8th? pole with not so much side vision in 2004 (wth Piscataway Mike's brother Tom). I think we both took the breath to scream thinking Smarty Jones had won but Birdstone passed Smarty like he was standing still. I let out a big "AWWWEEE" on my exhale breath-one continuous motion from the inhale.
I love Pharoah who with the Zayats (even got a few likes from Amhad Zyhat on twitter last/this year) gave me a wonder 2015. Better horse or not Justify faces a greater group of horses overall and especially in the Belmont. Once Pharoah won the Preakness the field for the Belmont was so weak I wondered if the race was a setup for Pharoah.
As for the triple crown possibility I surely think it's possible but not necessarily likely. Justify looked a bit gassed at the end and Bravazo barely missed. The Belmont stakes is about half a mile longer. The problem with Belmont is that certain horses with the pedigree for the Belmont (and have been aimed for Belmont ) await him as well as other Derby horses who didn't race in the Preakness including audible. You also gotta think Bravazo will be back and the field might include the impressive winner of the race before the Preakness (Axeman? a Winstar/ Baffert horse?)
On the positive side Justify is a big competitive boy who ls to run. I saw him bite the latch of his stall pre Derby. He has incredible heart and will get a week rest over what he had today though gotta think he won't be completely fresh.
Someone said the Byer was only 97 today down from 3- 100+ figures earlier. Then again how many horses have 97 byer races besides Justify this year?
In the end my guess right now is that assuming Justify recovers, it will be a real close race in the Belmont. My worry (I was there for the triple crown 3 years ago with Pharoah and in 2004) is that a 2004-like Belmont Stakes occurs where a big hearted game Justify is just tired enough in the final 1/8 to 1/16 where he slows immensely last minute and is passed right before the wire by a fresh Birdstone type horse. I was in general admission standing right on front of the 1/8th? pole with not so much side vision in 2004 (wth Piscataway Mike's brother Tom). I think we both took the breath to scream thinking Smarty Jones had won but Birdstone passed Smarty like he was standing still. I let out a big "AWWWEEE" on my exhale breath-one continuous motion from the inhale.
I love Pharoah who with the Zayats (even got a few likes from Amhad Zyhat on twitter last/this year) gave me a wonder 2015. Better horse or not Justify faces a greater group of horses overall and especially in the Belmont. Once Pharoah won the Preakness the field for the Belmont was so weak I wondered if the race was a setup for Pharoah.
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Someone who knows more please post but NBC post race was referring to the possibility??? that certain horses may not run? (including good magic and audible?/or the co-owners rooting for opposite horses? I think this is due to part owners Winstar owning the racing rights to Justify and Audible? Good magic? and the China horse club owns the breeding right to Justify? Audible?
Put down the cocktails down and go back and read what I posted.
You cried like baby about the Triple Crown being unfair. Laughable statement and embarrassing for you.
I responded by saying "Only the Derby winner has anything to gain from winning the race besides the purse money."
Since Justify won the Derby that eliminated him from the rest of the conversation.
That can be looked at as a good sign. His worse race ever, worst Beyer and he still won.
He gets an extra week and hopefully some dry weather to get a workout or two for the Belmont. Although not uncommon by Derby winners Justify last morning work was April 27th.
The chart shows that Bravazo had the superior race,passed by two horses in the stretch,then passed them and another horse to the finish.Still,how will the horses handle 3 races in 6 weeks?Today's horses generally want about three weeks off between starts.
Or more. Pletcher is a big proponent of long rests and strong workouts in between races.
Chad Brown would never tell owners they made a mistake but Good Magic would have been better served by passing on the Preakness and trying to take on Justify, and the others at the Belmont.
Breeding rights partners have no say in where the horse runs. They purchased a future investment. Winstar owns the controlling interests in both horses. It's their choice where they run.
As for Good Magic I didn't hear them mention him and don't understand if they were referring to an ownership connections.
I know Chad Brown didn't want to run in the Preakness and wanted to rest the horse. I think he would want to rest the horses after two straight all out efforts.
Winstar is a breeding operation that also races horses. Obviously, the more success their horses have on the track the better for their breeding operation. The China Horse Club and the other minority partners are in it for the racing. But the better their horses do on the track the higher the price they can sell their racehorses for breeding purposes.
So, the question they face is - do they run Audible in the Belmont Stakes and risk beating Justify out of the TC? If Audible wins the Belmont and Justify comes in second that would probably hurt Winstar financially but be good for CHC.
FWIW, Winstar didn't hesitate to run Quip against Justify in the Preakness and I doubt they'll hold Audible out of the Belmont.
In the end, by contract there is probably one managing partner who gets to make the call for Justify and Audible, and that's probably Winstar.
Unlike the Monday after the Derby, when no one seemed to be interested facing Justify in the Preakness, there is a full field of probables for stopping the potential Triple Crown winner. Two notables that stand out are Audible, who is listed and Good Magic who is out.
3 weeks to go, will start a Triple Crown thread at some point. June is a great month for horse racing. Belmont/Triple Crown followed by Royal Ascot starting 10 days later. NBC Sports is all in on both. Live coverage of all 5 days of the Royal Ascot spectacular begins June 19th.
3 weeks to go, will start a Triple Crown thread at some point. June is a great month for horse racing. Belmont/Triple Crown followed by Royal Ascot starting 10 days later. NBC Sports is all in on both. Live coverage of all 5 days of the Royal Ascot spectacular begins June 19th.
Lucky for Justify that the PReakness is 1/16 of a mile shorter than the derby or he would have been caught. Don't see him going 1 1/2 miles for the win.
He ran faster and finished going away in the longer 1 1/4 mile Derby. So I'm not sure how you are arriving at that conclusion. The shorter, slower Preakness pace worked against him.
The "he would have been caught if the race was longer" analysis works when you are talking about horses stretching out to the max of their distance limits. In the case of the Preakness, Justify and Good Magic's connections employed tactics for the distance and track conditions the was run at and under. If the race was 1 1/4 miles they would have paced themselves differently. They've both proven they can go 10 furlongs.
Another interesting story coming out of Baltimore this morning. The clock began ticking on the final decision on the future of Pimlico. By next years Preakness we will know if Pimlico will be torn down and rebuilt or just torn and the Preakness moved to Laurel. The city, state and the Stronach Group are all in agreement that the facilities days are numbered. Costs projection of $300/$400 million are required for a new one. The Stronach Group is clear they aren't spending a dime on Pimlico. Can not see State or city with their many problems being able to pass legislation to get the job done for a place that is basically used two days a year.
Smith was saving something at the end. If Justify is not challenged early, he wins again (assuming he trains well).
Tough for Baltimore psychologically. This is the second time that Colts will have moved out.
With the advent of sports gambling in Nj I wouldn't be surprised if Monmouth makes an attempt to land the Preakness. Too bad we haven't have the revenues from sports gambling for a few years already-may have helped with such. Also not so sure re politics but Monmouth is only open for a short period each year.
Where is horse racing still popular? Florida? California? It (Preakness) should be moved to a place where it will help racing thrive.
Zero chance that the Preakness is run outside of Maryland. The rights of the Preakness is owned by the Maryland Jockey Club.
Sometimes I love the Triple Crown season because of the constant talk of horse racing. But the downside are the idiots that have no clue who chime in. Before American Pharoah stupid people would post here or call into to sports radio with the dumbest ideas to change the Triple Crown to become easier, almost an annual event
Will be interesting if, in the longer Belmont, Justify will be brought to the lead out of the gate again. Might be better to let him sit back and let other horses fight off each other for the lead and bet that he has enough in the tank to chase them down that long stretch.
Since the system is parimutuel betting, I appreciate the Triple Crown focused people. There is often money to be made in races like the Haskell, Travers and Breeders Cup off of people who haven’t payed attention to the sport in a few months and overbet the horses they remember from the Spring.
You would think the casual fan adds so much to the handle but it is the big money guys who raise their bets for big races. For every new $20 bet there is the multiple 100k guys that drive the odds
No he wouldn't They all run to the finish line from a point. If this was 20 yards longer they wait 20 yards longer to make the move. It might have been closer, it might have been not close at all. With 70 yards to go that race was over.
Yes, but the big money guys are more likely to put their money in the right place.
I am talking about a race like the Travers last year. The three different horses that won triple crown races in 2017 were in the Travers. Always Dreaming the Derby winner was bet down to 7-2 even though his best finish since the Derby was 3rd in the Jim Dandy. It looked like there was money to be made by tossing the three TC horses and going with the non-TC horses actually running better in the summer, and that turned out to be the case.
A great read!!
www.drf.com/news/hovdey-more-one-way-win-triple-crown
To those that think Justify's close victory in the Preakness means he won't/ can't win the Belmont and Triple Crown this quote is for you. Nothing describes this game more accurately.
""And yet, nothing that has happened before tells us what will happen next. Such is the beauty of the Triple Crown challenge – each racehorse is his own mystery of condition and recovery, of bravery and grace."
www.drf.com/news/hovdey-more-one-way-win-triple-crown
To those that think Justify's close victory in the Preakness means he won't/ can't win the Belmont and Triple Crown this quote is for you. Nothing describes this game more accurately.
""And yet, nothing that has happened before tells us what will happen next. Such is the beauty of the Triple Crown challenge – each racehorse is his own mystery of condition and recovery, of bravery and grace."
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This is half true - it appears that Bravazo and or some other horse may have had a significant kick left.
