Reread the title and first post. The first part of it is all about the generally warm, snowless weather through about 2/12 or so, so it's not like I'm ignoring it. And the next part about the coming pattern shift to probable cold/snowy weather isn't a buzzkill for me and I'm sure others. If it's a buzzkill for you, maybe skip the thread.
I think winter weather is a buzzkill to more on this board than you would think. To be fair, I think that most people don’t totally hate winter but the season just goes on too damn long. No one wants to see this pattern nonsense right now. And I’ll scroll which threads I wish thank you.
No one? The likes and positive feedback from at least a few say otherwise. I get more people hate snow than love it, but I just thought it was an interesting topic. You're obviously entitled to your opinion, though.
He's going through snow-withdrawal and grasping at straws. It's been a rough 2 winters for snow wackos.
You're not paying attention either - I have touted it in the thread title and several posts and have been bantering about enjoying that weather here and in the other thread. Some of us are able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Also, our first winter storm threat is only 8+ days away as the pattern starts to change.
That was only in the mountains of Wayne (right near the Fountains of Wayne); was a balmy 28F here this morning, lol. Up to a nice 42F here now and full sunshine.
She gets around - I heard she also frequents the Hillsborough Deli. By the way, for my money FoW was one of the most underrated power pop bands of the 90s and early 2000s. Got to know the lead singer a bit through his family as I worked with his brother and father some back then and they would go to shows too. Nice folks.
Honestly, you two make me sad and disappointed. Your attitude reads more like a cartoonish Walmart Wolverine frat bully in an 80s movie than a Rutgers alumnus with any pride in yourself. Go pet a puppy or something to put some joy back in your life.
I would if I could, although I have Shore friends who want more cowbell and snow!
If we see the pattern/teleconnections I've been sharing from top pros, as per the quoted post, the chances of snowy conditions are clearly greater than is typical, as per the linked post, below, as DonSutherland from the weather boards, was finally able to compile the data on this. To summarize, the percentage of overall days with 2" of snow in NYC were 17% and the percentage of overall days with 4" or more was 17% for all February's between 1975 and 2023 (352 total days of 2 or 4" snowfalls out of 1352 total Feb days in 48 years), while for the pattern expected, with MJO Phases 1,8 (Amplitude 1.000 or above), AO-, EPO-, NAO-, PNA+, from February 1975-2023, the percentage of overall days with 2" of snow in NYC was 28% and the percentage of overall days with 4" or more was 18%. These numbers represent roughly a 60-80% enhancement for having those conditions in place vs. all other conditions in Feb in NYC, i.e., it's significantly more likely, but certainly not a foregone conclusion.We're now 2 days further along and all indications from the Euro/GFS/CMC ensemble model forecasts is that the pattern change being discussed is a go, probably starting a day or two earlier, i.e., by 2/13 (and maybe even 2/12), although the pattern likely won't be fully entrenched until about 2/15 and the coldest weather likely doesn't arrive until maybe 2/17 or so (and way too far out to predict any winter storms, although the period from about 2/18-2/27 does look to have greater snow chances than before 2/18). The operational models are also starting to show the pattern shift starting around 2/13 (with a chance of some wintry weather around then), which is now within ~9 days, which is no longer the fantasy land it was when I started the thread about 5 days ago.
As mentioned in the first post, the pattern generally features a persistent low/trough near the Aleutians, then a persistent ridge in the PacNW with the PacJet (subtropical jet stream) flowing clockwise around that high and diving down into the southwest (perhaps with some "split flow") and then heading up towards Greenland with a persistent trough in the eastern US and featuring high latitude "blocking" near Greenland (a negative NAO), allowing colder air to penetrate to our area and opening up the possibility for storms to traverse near that jet and coming up the coast, potentially delivering winter weather, which is why I'm predicting (educated guess really) from about 2/13 through the end of Feb to be colder and snowier than normal.
Since there isn't a lot of published data on what these patterns, as indicated by key MJO/teleconnections in the quoted thread above, actually mean for our area, I asked DonSutherland, the king of meteorological data on the weather boards (and maybe anywhere) to see if he could find data on what these patterns mean and he was able to find the data in the table below for average temperatures in February in Philly and NYC for patterns like we expect to have soon, i.e., EPO-/AO-/NAO-/PNA+ (he has a typo below on PNA) with both phase 1 and phase 8 of the critical MJO, as well as the base case of the overall mean temp. Clearly, for both cities, we can see departures of 3-5F below the historical overall mean, which certainly is "colder than normal" (colder than normal is typically at least 2F below the mean). Colder than normal does not mean extended brutal cold either, just, you know, below normal.
Unfortunately, Don wasn't able to find similarly robust data for snowfall for this kind of pattern in Feb, but he and just about every met I've seen say that such patterns typically do lead to snowier than normal outcomes, but definitely not in all cases; see the tweet below from John Homenuk (a very influential met) discussing how this kind of pattern has "delivered significant winter storms in the past." He and others have also said the heart of the colder (and potentially snowy) pattern is likely to be from 2/17 onwards. Also, as I've mentioned before, I've tracked about 8 fairly similar patterns since 2016 and saw that all 8 verified for colder than normal temps and 5 verified for snowier than normal outcomes (one would expect random guessing to verify 2-3 out of 8) for the 2-3 week periods I was following (did this for New Brunswick and vs. above/normal/below for those two parameters vs. all seasons for the period in question), but that's a fairly small sample size and I didn't rigorously track the teleconnections beyond what was forecast about 8-10 days out, so it would be nice to see someone out there in the weather world obtaining more rigorous data.
Hopefully, this will be interesting and fun to follow over the next few weeks for those of you who don't think the entire effort is a waste of time. I would think people might be interested in a likely cold/snowy pattern for the 2nd half of Feb and maybe into the first half of March. People seem to like the tropical weather seasonal forecast threads, which do the same thing, predicting normal, below normal and above normal seasons - without even any insight on where those storms might even hit, while this likely pattern is saying the outcomes are actually for our area (Philly-NJ-NYC, generally speaking). Very active thread on this on AmericanWx - way more vitriol there than here, actually, but those posts get deleted quickly.
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59981-february-2024/page/31/#comment-7194003
I'll stick with don't read them if you don't like them or think they're useless, especially given the very high percentage of silly/useless threads on this board. You'll get an event thread soon if we keep seeing model outcomes like last night's, i.e., maybe after tonight's late night 0Z runs, which put us about 5 days before the start of the event.
Just not a fan of your pushing of a trend thread for weather. And to be honest I don’t think many others are either. I’ll bet many really thought this was about a particular event.
You might become legendary. Since Plum hasn't been good in the prediction biz of late someone should take over the crown!
www.zerohedge.com
No issue with you or many others not being a fan of trend threads, but clearly some like them, so I'll continue to do them once in awhile (I've averaged slightly more than 1 per season, so it's not like I'm polluting the board with a dozen pattern threads each winter). Also, it should be crystal clear by the title that this is not an event thread - not sure how much clearer I could make it - but I often discuss longer term threats in a pattern thread, but not in great detail, like in the event threads, as there's just way too much uncertainty this far out (like the 12Z GFS now showing all rain except N of 80/84 vs. snow for most 6 hours ago).
I know, but people see “weather & numbers” and they assume.
I had recently proposed one general winter/pattern thread to cover the few to several major pattern shifts that occur in a winter and event threads within 3-5 days as needed, but you didn't seem to like that (or maybe you just didn't want any longer range threads). Are you now proposing one overall winter thread for everything? I had proposed that years ago and you and many others mutinied, lol.
And today's 12Z models are why I didn't start a thread or start touting a snowstorm (like you can see out on social media from some), as every one of them was a rain event for 95 and the coast with a bit of snow N of 80 (and NW of 287) on some or only N of 84 on others, with only N of 84 seeing significant snow on any of the models. Just like last night's runs didn't mean we're going to get a snowstorm, today's 12Z runs don't mean the threat is dead for our region, but it certainly makes it a lot less likely. But we're still 5+ days out, so let's see how this progresses.
