I’m not a fan of anything other than an actual event thread. Those as I’ve said all along are worthwhile an important for those of us who have to be outside when others don’t. The bickering and teasing that goes back and forth is just white noise for me.
I’ll take it my canine weather aficionado. Have a big blood drive coming up on the 17th. Need those donations. It can snow all it wants after that.
Gotcha. Fair take, but I'll stick with the occasional pattern thread and will do event threads when snow impact (and occasionally major rain/flooding/wind impacts) for at least some of our area looks at least moderate. FYI, I somewhat arbitrarily define our area as: Philly and the NWS-Mt. Holly parts of SEPA/NEPA, all of NJ, and SENY/NYC/LI, with the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and nearby locations being the core of that area.
Your definition of excellent is different than ours.
its going to be in the 30s at the end of next week into the following week then we see what happens. Not sure what event you are talking about though because Monday event is rain and its going to be in the 40s Tuesday. Any other event are far in the future. He is posting 384 hour snow maps
I was talking about the one we had in January right before the Nebraska home game. Any other event I referenced is hypothetical.
Busy right now and heading out for the afternoon/evening, but based on the 12Z models moving much snowier, will probably start a thread after tonight's 0Z models, assuming they don't all show rain. Today's GFS is a significant snowstorm south of 276/195 (minor/moderate north of there), the Euro is a significant snowstorm N of 78 and minor/moderate south of there, the UK is a minor event with an inch or two of snow and some rain (it's just much drier) and the CMC went from having snow only N of 90 (yes 90 in NY/MA) to having moderate snow N of 80 (and very little S of 78), which is a huge shift southward. This is the closest the models have come to consensus yet (and we don't have consensus, but at least they're not ridiculously far apart). Also, this is the first time we're seeing the NBM (model blend) with more than 1/2" of snow for most of CNJ, as it's now showing a 1-3" snowfall and the NWS follows the NBM pretty closely, so I'd expect to see them become more bullish on snow potential later this afternoon.
I clearly was posting that ridiculous 384 GFS map in jest, although it does show the potential of the pattern. And you're being ridiculous in completely dismissing any chance of snow for Tuesday and you know it, just like I would be ridiculous if I were guaranteeing snow for Tuesday's storm, especially after seeing today's 12Z models. Either of those positions could end up being right, but there's no basis for either one of those positions right now, i.e., it would be a lucky guess.
whats amazing is i just went over there to get the facts and its a completely different interperation of the models than what you are posting here
That's flat out wrong and you know it. Show me one thing I said that was wrong above. My descriptions of the models was pretty clear - I could post them to prove it, but they're not worth posting yet. And my discussion of the uncertainties is very similar to what walt drag and other top mets, such as brooklynwx, are saying. In fact, he just wrote up a fantastic summary of the synoptic setup highlighting the things that might still go wrong, but showing that some accumulating snow for even 95/coast is possible.
Nobody called me out for posting that because I clearly stated my intent, plus I was replying to someone else who had posted it first and all I did was show the zoomed in version; here's what I said: "Zoomed in, just for our forum, because snow, lol. Even though there isn't much model support from the other models for this. I'd be happy with 6" of snow over the next 15 days given how little snow we've had, so I guess we have to wait until we some other models come on board for something like this. It is pretty though." That map showed 24-30" of snow for our area over the next 15 days and I said I'd be happy with 6", which is obviously reasonable. Stop listening to your brother and actually read the thread.
Of course the snowmaps are of dubious value this far out and in marginal situations, which is precisely why I haven't posted any. People post them on the weather boards all the time, including pro mets when trying to make points about what the models are saying. I said nothing inaccurate in my posts here - I simply briefly described what the models were showing and cautioned people that the models might very well be overdoing snow/precip since we're likely to have above 32F surface conditions and daylight. I still think it's unlikely that the 95 corridor gets more than a bit of slop, but there IS some low (10-20%?) possibility that even 95 will get a plowable snow as the NWS said today.
the clearing out of skies created radiationally cooling overnight which we were not getting so much with the endless day of clouds in January
We will be good
I will be walking to Caesar's pier to watch the sunset, and am considering wearing shorts...
Hopefully nobody here takes a rodent's forecasts seriously and this year it's looking very likely the little varmint will be wrong again. Every medium/long-term ensemble model forecast continues to show a major pattern shift starting around 2/13-14 (which is now only 11-12 days away), ushering in colder than normal temps while still having a decent number of storms, which likely equates to a snowier than normal period from about 2/13-14 through the end of Feb (once we get past the warm/snowless first 2 weeks of Feb, which are now a lock) and possibly through mid-March. Given the consistency of the models on this and the decent number of well-respected pros (see below) who are on board with the pattern change, I'm jumping on that bandwagon too and am going out on a limb and calling for colder and snowier than normal conditions from 2/13 through 2/28.
Nick Gregory is the latest met to be on board with this and he's one of the 2-3 best in NYC, IMO. He's generally pretty conservative, but he's calling for a pretty good chance of another ~15" or so of snow for NYC (which means the 95 corridor from at least Trenton to SE CT, really) this winter as per his graphic below, which shows 15-23" of snow for the whole winter for the 95 corridor and the coast (and 25-35" a bit NW of 95). The snow would come after about mid-February, which is when the pattern shift is expected and 15" from mid-Feb through the end of winter would be well above normal (which is about 9-10" during that time).
And if you want to see the nitty gritty details of what, exactly, the models are showing with regard to this pattern change, DT's/WxRisk's video, below does a nice job of that (starting around 8 minutes in), i.e., by mid-Feb, the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) is forecast to be going into phases 8 and 1, the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) heading negative on the Atlantic side of North America, and the PNA (Pacific/North America pattern) heads positive and the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) heads negative. Every one of those teleconnections is favorable for eastern US cold and possibly snow in winter.
There are also snowfall maps starting to circulate on social media showing ridiculous amounts of snow for the NE US and our area (like 20-30") from mid-Feb through mid-March. They're fun to look at but a bit silly to forecast this far out. In fact, we've had somewhat similar patterns to what we're expecting to have soon without getting much snow (sometimes too much cold air suppresses storms and sometimes timing just never lines up right for major snowstorms), but these patterns do produce snow for our area much more often than most other patterns and have been responsible for some of our snowiest periods ever, like Feb 2010
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...n-part-of-the-nyc-subforum-event-obs/page/46/
Finally, NOAA's CPC (Climate Prediction Center) has partially bought in to this major pattern change but not completely, as the graphics only have the SE US being colder than normal, while the mid-Atlantic and NE US have average temps (and slightly drier than normal conditions) for the 2/17-3/1 period. However, the actual discussion from the CPC mentions a couple of times that colder/wetter is a distinct possibility for the NE US during this time.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
You and the NWS are correct. Temps definitely look to go up reaching normal (44/25F is normal on 2/19 for NB) around 2/19 and then going above normal from 2/20 through the rest of next week and likely staying above normal through the end of Feb. Hence my early declaration of defeat on the pattern staying colder beyond 2/19, which means the "colder and potentially snowier" pattern will have lasted just a week (2/13-2/19). And even that week may not end up being below normal, although snowier than normal has already verified for that week, based on NB getting ~4" of snow and another 1-2" of snow will make it a really snowy week (one would expect about 2" per week of snow in Feb, not 5-6").
As long as you can make a snowman and I get little if any other than what's expected early Sat, we'll both be happy.
