OT: Belmont Stakes 2018. Can Justify win the Triple Crown?

[WhiteBus]

To answer the thread title question, yes he can! He is by far the best horse in the field. And its not even close.
With that said, Justify will be the 36th horse to come to Belmont having won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Only 12 have won, the other 23 dreams died at Big Sandy's finish line.
Morning line was set at 4/5. That number will drop Friday when betting begins.
I'll be rooting hard for Justify to win against all these rested horses.
As far as betting, I'll pass on the Belmont. Just sit back and enjoy, hope to see history. The rest of Belmont Stakes Day card, is another story altogether! I'll be involved $ for all 9 other stakes races on Saturday. Great undercard led by a great Met Mile field which includes Mind Your Biscuits and Bolt d'Oro.
Check out Mind Your Biscuits last race :eyes:


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PLwj2Cfav3M&ved=0ahUKEwiykYajx7_bAhVDzVMKHfhtDW4QwqsBCCAwAA&usg=AOvVaw2Nu4XyRfwZZRm0kEyGsKMe

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Bravazo and Tenfold were flying at the end .Justify / Smith did what they had to do but it got a bit tight.Are they all bred for the long ride? Does it matter? Bravazo was a deep closing rocket but it may have just been Smith misreading the lead.Dont know. Hope J wins but money is only available elsewhere

 

[WhiteBus]

Bravazo and Tenfold were flying at the end .Justify / Smith did what they had to do but it got a bit tight.Are they all bred for the long ride? Does it matter? Bravazo was a deep closing rocket but it may have just been Smith misreading the lead.Dont know. Hope J wins but money is only available elsewhere

Nobody is bred for 1 1/2 mile race. Especially a 1 1/2 oval track.
Justify got the rail which doesn't sound bad for a race of that length but the Belmont start/finish line is the same unlike the other too and it is the shortest distance to the first turn of the 3.
Baffert wasn't pleased with the luck of the shake getting the 1 spot.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Nobody is bred for 1 1/2 mile race. Especially a 1 1/2 oval track.
Justify got the rail which doesn't sound bad for a race of that length but the Belmont start/finish line is the same unlike the other too and it is the shortest distance to the first turn of the 3.
Baffert wasn't pleased with the luck of the shake getting the 1 spot.

Maybe what you meant was "no horse in this race was bred for 1 1/2 miles"?

Most certainly, a good number of modern thoroughbreds are bred for optimal stamina for distance racing. That was the origin of the breed. English mares and Arabian stallions were brought together to develop a new breed specifically for distance racing/running. Euros still pursue this, on turf.

As for Justify? We'll see. Likely he'll get run down by a fresh horse. 12 furlongs is a long run. That last furlong is rough.

 

[WhiteBus]

Maybe what you meant was "no horse in this race was bred for 1 1/2 miles"?

Most certainly, a good number of modern thoroughbreds are bred for optimal stamina for distance racing. That was the origin of the breed. English mares and Arabian stallions were brought together to develop a new breed specifically for distance racing/running. Euros still pursue this, on turf.

As for Justify? We'll see. Likely he'll get run down by a fresh horse. 12 furlongs is a long run. That last furlong is rough.

No horses are bred for that distance in the US at all. There are no other graded stakes races on dirt at 1 1/2 mile. I think there less than 3 races across the country that are run at that distance anymore.
Even in Europe the races run at the distance are few and far between. I believe that only one graded 1 stakes at distance is run during the Royal Ascot...which is coming up soon and now all 5 days are televised in the US on NBC Sports. Must watch event but that's another thread... I'll get you all hooked on that. Spoke with Bill Mott last summer after his first trip there. Great stories even though he didn't win.
US breeders give zero value to winning the Belmont. Unless you are one of the TC winners.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

I can justify not betting on Justify . I want to make a killing dammit!!!!Then I parlay that killing into college football success in September legally. Here. In New Jersey.. Yippee.

 

[bigmatt718]

Justify getting the post makes it that much more difficult. Belmont folks definitely want Justify to earn it.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

$$$$$$$$____$$$$$$

 

[chase07470]

I enjoy the races but have never spent a lot of time around the horses. My amateur observation is that it seems weird that a horse who ran for two minutes, three weeks ago isn't fresh to run for another two minutes, three weeks later. Heck, I'm out of shape and getting old and you could run me into the ground for two minutes and I'd be fresh in three days.

What's the deal with this fresh/not fresh business? What's not fresh? Why don't they submerge them in water in a harness for days between races and keep them off their feet?

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Bus Splain to him please?

 

[ashokan]

Bob Baffert said Justfy was horse version of Lebron

 

[WhiteBus]

I enjoy the races but have never spent a lot of time around the horses. My amateur observation is that it seems weird that a horse who ran for two minutes, three weeks ago isn't fresh to run for another two minutes, three weeks later. Heck, I'm out of shape and getting old and you could run me into the ground for two minutes and I'd be fresh in three days.

What's the deal with this fresh/not fresh business? What's not fresh? Why don't they submerge them in water in a harness for days between races and keep them off their feet?

It's not just the time between 2 races, it's the grind for very young horses to run so much in a short time. This will be his 6th race since February 18th.

 

[Phi_1055]

It's not just the time between 2 races, it's the grind for very young horses to run so much in a short time. This will be his 6th race since February 18th.

Plus the effects of Running on Lasix.

For those who don't know of it, it's a drug used to control bleeding in the lungs when a horse is racing. It's a diuretic and leads to a major loss of fluids and electrolytes. It takes racehorses a while to recover from its effects. It didn't used to be legal for horses to run on it and still isn't in most countries. It's a major reason why horses of today can't run as often as those of earlier days.

 

[Phi_1055]

What's the deal with this fresh/not fresh business? What's not fresh? Why don't they submerge them in water in a harness for days between races and keep them off their feet?

Horses aren't humans. They would develop laminitis and have to be euthanized.

 

[GSGS]

No horses are bred for that distance in the US at all. There are no other graded stakes races on dirt at 1 1/2 mile. I think there less than 3 races across the country that are run at that distance anymore.
Even in Europe the races run at the distance are few and far between. I believe that only one graded 1 stakes at distance is run during the Royal Ascot...which is coming up soon and now all 5 days are televised in the US on NBC Sports. Must watch event but that's another thread... I'll get you all hooked on that. Spoke with Bill Mott last summer after his first trip there. Great stories even though he didn't win.
US breeders give zero value to winning the Belmont. Unless you are one of the TC winners.

A European horse named Princequillo was bred for distance, he came to America during WWII, and his grandson did pretty good running the Belmont's 1 1/2 miles exactly 45 years ago this Saturday. :-)

 

[Phi_1055]

A European horse named Princequillo was bred for distance, he came to America during WWII, and his grandson did pretty good running the Belmont's 1 1/2 miles exactly 45 years ago this Saturday. :)

Four or five generations back racing was a very different game.

 

[krup]

Nobody is bred for 1 1/2 mile race. Especially a 1 1/2 oval track.
Justify got the rail which doesn't sound bad for a race of that length but the Belmont start/finish line is the same unlike the other too and it is the shortest distance to the first turn of the 3.
Baffert wasn't pleased with the luck of the shake getting the 1 spot.

I don't see getting the post being a huge issue for Justify in this race, because the 2-4 horses don't seem likely to want the front, so Justify should have a clear shot to get into the position they want him in.

The questions are over how much he has left in the tank, and if there are any horses capable of taking him on early and hanging like Good Magic did in the Preakness.

 

[GSGS]

Four or five generations back racing was a very different game.

… and that is quite possibly part of the reason we may never see a performance again like the one that occurred 45 years ago.

 

[chase07470]

They took Justify to the front out of the gate in both races but clearly he would have been beaten if Pimlico were a mile and a half. Will be interesting to see if they go for the lead again or change strategies and let someone else wear out up front.

 

[WhiteBus]

A European horse named Princequillo was bred for distance, he came to America during WWII, and his grandson did pretty good running the Belmont's 1 1/2 miles exactly 45 years ago this Saturday. :)

Not only was Secretariat his grandson but so was his rival Sham who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness and pressed the early pace in the Belmont. Princequillo won some good races. All at the classic 1 1/4 distance. Two at Saratoga that no longer exist and the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont. He also holds the track record at Saratoga for a 1 3/4. A record that will never be broken as that race or any race of that distance on dirt no longer exists. Bred in France, foaled in Ireland he only ran in the US. His story is very interesting.
I'm sitting here looking at a framed copy of the Post Parade (program) from the 1993 Belmont Stakes. It was 125th Belmont and the cover is a beautful drawing or Secretariat. Top half is a head profile, bottom is him racing finishing the Belmont Stakes. I framed it not just because of the artwork but it was a very memorable day as my dear friend Scotty Sculhofer won his first Belmont with Colonial Affair with Julie Krone aboard.

 

[WhiteBus]

They took Justify to the front out of the gate in both races but clearly he would have been beaten if Pimlico were a mile and a half. Will be interesting to see if they go for the lead again or change strategies and let someone else wear out up front.

You can't make that comparison. They were running to a finish line. If the Preakness was longer all of them would make their moves later and the results are probably the same.

 

[chase07470]

You can't make that comparison. They were running to a finish line. If the Preakness was longer all of them would make their moves later and the results are probably the same.

Or Justify was simply running out of gas. Could go either way. But there is obviously something to the "rested horses" "horses aren't human's". Any fastest human, Usain Bolt, Michael Johnson, etc, would win all of these races over this time frame. yet how many fail to convert the triple crown? For that reason, I think Justify loses. Just out of curiosity, if you bet that he finishes out of first and second, how much would you make on a $100 bet?

 

[WhiteBus]

Or Justify was simply running out of gas. Could go either way. But there is obviously something to the "rested horses" "horses aren't human's". Any fastest human, Usain Bolt, Michael Johnson, etc, would win all of these races over this time frame. yet how many fail to convert the triple crown? For that reason, I think Justify loses. Just out of curiosity, if you bet that he finishes out of first and second, how much would you make on a $100 bet?

The only available bet you could make would be a Show bet, 3rd place. For a $100 bet you would win $5. If he finishes in any other spot you lose your $100.

 

[Phi_1055]

They took Justify to the front out of the gate in both races but clearly he would have been beaten if Pimlico were a mile and a half. Will be interesting to see if they go for the lead again or change strategies and let someone else wear out up front.

Further to WB's good explanation - consider this: in thoroughbred racing 3/4 mile is a sprint, 1 1/4 miles is long distance and 1 1/2 miles is a marathon. You don't run a 1 3/16 mile race like you would a 1 1/2 mile one. What seems like only a little bit of a distance longer for a human is a huge difference for a racehorse.

 

[famousbill19]

@WhiteBus What do you think Justify will go off at? Typically I would expect a horse that that won the 1st two legs to go off well under even money due to the attention from the amateur bettors but with the rail, the fact he was all out in the Preakness, and everything else that stacks up against a horse running all three legs in such a short period I would not be surprised to see a lot of the "smart" money go elsewhere. Thoughts?

 

[WhiteBus]

@WhiteBus What do you think Justify will go off at? Typically I would expect a horse that that won the 1st two legs to go off well under even money due to the attention from the amateur bettors but with the rail, the fact he was all out in the Preakness, and everything else that stacks up against a horse running all three legs in such a short period I would not be surprised to see a lot of the "smart" money go elsewhere. Thoughts?

My guess would be 3/5. The problem if you are trying to get Justify beat who do you trust to put a lot of money on? Some of these horses have graded stakes wins but also some bad races. Tenfold has only a maiden special victory.
Now if Chad Brown had his say with Good Magic and skipped the Preakness for the Belmont than I could see Justify over even money.

 

[Jumba72]

Justify has the same running style as American Pharoah. It's very hard to beat controlling speed at 10 furlongs. I wasn't overly impressed with Tenfold's Preakness but the spacing of his races suggest that he might benefit from the effort. He has to make a big jump but I do see the possibility

 

[WhiteBus]

Justify has the same running style as American Pharoah. It's very hard to beat controlling speed at 10 furlongs. I wasn't overly impressed with Tenfold's Preakness but the spacing of his races suggest that he might benefit from the effort. He has to make a big jump but I do see the possibility

And before American Pharoah it was Cigar's style.

 

[bitnez]

Audible would’ve beaten him but the connections smartly kept him out since they also own Justify

 

[WhiteBus]

Audible would’ve beaten him but the connections smartly kept him out since they also own Justify

Audible was sideline with an injury. Bad hoofs.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Will any of you be betting on baseball and basketball on Saturday? Hello Governor Moiphy.

 

[HeyHuey]

No way. He will start to tie up after 1-1/4. The jockey will have to carry him the last 100 yards.

 

[wheezer]

Bob Baffert said Justfy was horse version of Lebron

----

Justify (Lebron) would be looking at Secretariats rear end
by the end of the race....and maybe from a good distance.

 

[WhiteBus]

----

Justify (Lebron) would be looking at Secretariats rear end
by the end of the race....and maybe from a good distance.

So would all 148 past Belmont winners and every horse that has ever run 1 1/2 miles on dirt... in the world! Stakes record, track record, world record for 45 years.

 

[WhiteBus]

This the program I mentioned earlier. Of 20+ trips to the Big Sandy this was easily my favorite. Cigar winning the Breeders Cup is a distant 2nd.

 

[GSGS]

Not only was Secretariat his grandson but so was his rival Sham who finished second to him in the Derby and Preakness and pressed the early pace in the Belmont. Princequillo won some good races. All at the classic 1 1/4 distance. Two at Saratoga that no longer exist and the Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont. He also holds the track record at Saratoga for a 1 3/4. A record that will never be broken as that race or any race of that distance on dirt no longer exists. Bred in France, foaled in Ireland he only ran in the US. His story is very interesting.
I'm sitting here looking at a framed copy of the Post Parade (program) from the 1993 Belmont Stakes. It was 125th Belmont and the cover is a beautful drawing or Secretariat. Top half is a head profile, bottom is him racing finishing the Belmont Stakes. I framed it not just because of the artwork but it was a very memorable day as my dear friend Scotty Sculhofer won his first Belmont with Colonial Affair with Julie Krone aboard.

Great stuff, WhiteBus, thanks for sharing. Sham also inherited the big heart gene from Princequillo, and after his death his heart weighed in at twice the size of the average thoroughbred.

 

[GSGS]

Further to WB's good explanation - consider this: in thoroughbred racing 3/4 mile is a sprint, 1 1/4 miles is long distance and 1 1/2 miles is a marathon. You don't run a 1 3/16 mile race like you would a 1 1/2 mile one. What seems like only a little bit of a distance longer for a human is a huge difference for a racehorse.

Except for in 1973. Secretariat tied the then existing world record for 1 1/8 miles on his way to his record breaking 1.5 mile run, and even galloped out 1/8 mile after the race in a time fast enough (unofficially, of course) to smash the record for 1 5/8's miles. Many of the veteran observers watching the race in 1973 thought that Ronnie Turcotte had lost his mind and the pace would cost Big Red the Triple Crown.

 

[ru75]

Post should not be a detriment to Justify. Not expecting traffic issues. he can go early and control pace. In the Preakness he had to take the pace challenge and not get mud in the face. I suspect he can lay off a rabbit on a fast track and hang on longer than he did in the slop at the Preakness.

I think he can make a 1 1/2.

 

[ashokan]

----

Justify (Lebron) would be looking at Secretariats rear end
by the end of the race....and maybe from a good distance.

Oh sure (and I saw Secretariat win @ Belmont and wouldn't think Justify was in same class as Big Red). Bafffert was referring to the size and musculature of Justify. He said the horse was almost 150 pounds heavier than the other horses in Derby. He also said he bounced Right back after the Preakness and was energized and ready to go

 

[wheezer]

Oh sure (and I saw Secretariat win @ Belmont and wouldn't think Justify was in same class as Big Red). Bafffert was referring to the size and musculature of Justify. He said the horse was almost 150 pounds heavier than the other horses in Derby. He also said he bounced Right back after the Preakness and was energized and ready to go

---
good to know..... I thought he was calling the horse Lebron due to the results on the track, and if we go by results, it would be
Big Red...

I pulled up the replay of the 1973 belmont, still gives me chills to watch....

"he is moving like a tremendous machine"