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OT: Major Winter Storm 3/13-14 (Mixed Bag/High Uncertainty) and 3/10-11 (over)

Snowing pretty good for a bit in No. Plfd. but nothing sticking. Now it's just flurries. The wind may be the bigger problem when the system pulls away.
 
Ringoes. Picture under represents flakes and wind.
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Just woke up from a decent nap as it was just pixie dust for a few hours since about 7 am and it's been light to almost moderate but no accumulation at 34F...and then the last 10-15 minutes has been moderate snow and we now officially have a very light dusting. Time to fire up the generator!
 
Major Flurries in Hudson county, i think we have two to three snowflakes that have stuck. Bit breezey too.
 
Just woke up from a decent nap as it was just pixie dust for a few hours since about 7 am and it's been light to almost moderate but no accumulation at 34F...and then the last 10-15 minutes has been moderate snow and we now officially have a very light dusting. Time to fire up the generator!
After about 4 hours of light to moderate snow at 33-34F, with a few light dustings established and then melted quickly as intensity lessened, just now we're finally getting sustained moderate snow (maybe 3/8 of a mile visibility (maybe 600-700 yards) at 32F and we now officially have a "full dusting" or "light coating" (whatever that is, lol) on the colder surfaces (and a good 1/4" on trees, but that doesn't count, lol) which translates to about 0.1".

My guess is now that we're 2.5 hours past the full height of the sun and a little cooler, the snow will accumulate at least a little now. Radar looks good for me for the next 30 min or so. If we can hold onto this intensity once we have a cold layer on the ground, maybe we can pull off a whole 1/4-1/2". My other guess is that we've probably had 1/4-3/8" per hour snow "falling" rates for ~4 hours (I always think of 1/4" per hour as light with 3/8"/hr as getting moderate), so that's about the melting rate - could've had 1-1.5" over those 4 hours, but it's midday at March and it's been 33-34F until right now. Anyway, that's probably TMI for most, lol.

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Tree snow is gorgeous... except when it's indicative of heavy concrete on the ground.
 
We're up to 1/2" on the board on the lawn and the trees have about 1/2", while my undisturbed car in the shade has almost 1" on it and nada on pavement. I'm recording 1/2" right now, since the car is definitely an outlier - I've almost never seen this kind of difference before and I'm sure it's due to the car top being just slightly colder than the ground/board. Still 32F and coming down moderately, so we could get to 1" if that band stays over us (we'll be right on the eastern edge of it). Most years I wouldn't care much about every 1/4" but this winter is different.

Edit: here's the pic of 1" on the car. So odd. Still at 1/2" on the board, as intensity has let up a little. About to head out to the OB and then the game...

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Getting another wave in NP, but just sticking on top of some bushes, that's it. I wish all snow storms were like this.
 
We're up to 1/2" on the board on the lawn and the trees have about 1/2", while my undisturbed car in the shade has almost 1" on it and nada on pavement. I'm recording 1/2" right now, since the car is definitely an outlier - I've almost never seen this kind of difference before and I'm sure it's due to the car top being just slightly colder than the ground/board. Still 32F and coming down moderately, so we could get to 1" if that band stays over us (we'll be right on the eastern edge of it). Most years I wouldn't care much about every 1/4" but this winter is different.

Edit: here's the pic of 1" on the car. So odd. Still at 1/2" on the board, as intensity has let up a little. About to head out to the OB and then the game...

lfaEbur.png
How did you get that much on your car with this? You must have a mini snow-making machine over there, there's no other way! 😂
 
We're up to 1/2" on the board on the lawn and the trees have about 1/2", while my undisturbed car in the shade has almost 1" on it and nada on pavement. I'm recording 1/2" right now, since the car is definitely an outlier - I've almost never seen this kind of difference before and I'm sure it's due to the car top being just slightly colder than the ground/board. Still 32F and coming down moderately, so we could get to 1" if that band stays over us (we'll be right on the eastern edge of it). Most years I wouldn't care much about every 1/4" but this winter is different.

Edit: here's the pic of 1" on the car. So odd. Still at 1/2" on the board, as intensity has let up a little. About to head out to the OB and then the game...

lfaEbur.png
I had about 0.6" on the board and most of the grass when I left around 5:15 pm to go to the RU game and got back around 9:30 pm and checked the board, which I had wiped before I left, and had another 0.4" on it, so I'm calling it an even 1.0". The car had about 1.2" when I got back, probably due to compaction. The amounts on lawns varied widely in town, depending, I think, on shade level given the strong indirect sunlight in mid-March - my backyard was half covered and the front yard was nearly completely covered (it's shadier). Also, I was monitoring the radar after I left and it looks like Metuchen stayed pretty well under that band for a few hours after I left (my wife confirmed), so an additional 0.4" with snow falling mostly after the sun was low/down, seems reasonable, as does the 1.0" total measurement, especially given a report of 1.4" from neighboring Edison. That brings my total to 5.1" for the season vs. a long-term average of about 29" per season.

With regard to other locations, I think the last forecast from the NWS, this morning, ended up verifying pretty well (although the forecast from last night was still pretty high and the one from yesterday morning was way high). Reports of 4-9" in Sussex, 3-6" in Morris, 2-3" in northern Somerset and northern Hunterdon, up by 78, 2-3" in Bergen, 3-5" in NW Passaic, 3-7" in the Poconos and generally 5-10" N of 84 in NEPA, SENY and CT with some 18-36" amounts in the mountains from the Catskills to the Adirondacks to New England. Even Freehold surprisingly reported 1". But also, lots of places south of 78 and even N of 78 in NENJ/NYC reporting <1" or even nada, as the bands that came through and lasted were not hitting everywhere equally at all. Will post a map when all the reports are in and scrubbed (reports before noon are meaningless with more snow that fell after).

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi
 
How did you get that much on your car with this? You must have a mini snow-making machine over there, there's no other way! 😂
No idea - most of the cars in the neighborhood looked like that. I guess the cartops were just slightly colder and it made a big difference in accumulation vs. on the grass, as you can see from the pictures I posted. Definitely unusual, although if I had a snowmaking machine it would've been worthless with temps above 32F all day. There is this guy in Midlothian, VA (near Richmond), who has a snowmaking machine and every year he fires it up when it's cold so he has snow on his lawn. Always cracked me up, as he has a bit of a hill and neighborhood kids come there to sled.
 
No idea - most of the cars in the neighborhood looked like that. I guess the cartops were just slightly colder and it made a big difference in accumulation vs. on the grass, as you can see from the pictures I posted. Definitely unusual, although if I had a snowmaking machine it would've been worthless with temps above 32F all day. There is this guy in Midlothian, VA (near Richmond), who has a snowmaking machine and every year he fires it up when it's cold so he has snow on his lawn. Always cracked me up, as he has a bit of a hill and neighborhood kids come there to sled.
No snow stuck to my upper deck, but some did stick to my lower deck for some reason. Also, my neighbor's deck, which is a little higher than my upper deck, had a lot stick to it. I guess it had more to do with the effect of wind than anything else.

Anyway, I have much driving to do. So no more snow, thank-you. Time for a nice, dry, warm spring.
 
No matter how cold it's been for nearly a week, the sun is out today and can see tons of stuff blooming on my way home. Winter is over!
Don't put that winter coat away just yet bucko. i'm seeing lows in the upper 20's - low 30's Sat - Tue.

Just like MY old saying goes...March comes in like lion and goes out like a.....lion.
 
Yet again the most notable part is this damn wind. 50.8 MPH gust a mile from here.
 
Yet again the most notable part is this damn wind. 50.8 MPH gust a mile from here.
It's might just be recency bias on my part, but it sure seems like we have a lot more days with high gusty winds than we used to have a 5 to 10 years or more ago. Always had windy days now and then. But nothing like it's been the past few years.

Among other crap (like having stuff blowing over in my yard), I've been getting siding coming loose here and there. I'm actually giving though to replacing it with brick.
 
Don't put that winter coat away just yet bucko. i'm seeing lows in the upper 20's - low 30's Sat - Tue.

Just like MY old saying goes...March comes in like lion and goes out like a.....lion.
I expect overnight lows to be cold but only one daytime high stays in the 40s .... possibly the rest of the month.
 
I had about 0.6" on the board and most of the grass when I left around 5:15 pm to go to the RU game and got back around 9:30 pm and checked the board, which I had wiped before I left, and had another 0.4" on it, so I'm calling it an even 1.0". The car had about 1.2" when I got back, probably due to compaction. The amounts on lawns varied widely in town, depending, I think, on shade level given the strong indirect sunlight in mid-March - my backyard was half covered and the front yard was nearly completely covered (it's shadier). Also, I was monitoring the radar after I left and it looks like Metuchen stayed pretty well under that band for a few hours after I left (my wife confirmed), so an additional 0.4" with snow falling mostly after the sun was low/down, seems reasonable, as does the 1.0" total measurement, especially given a report of 1.4" from neighboring Edison. That brings my total to 5.1" for the season vs. a long-term average of about 29" per season.

With regard to other locations, I think the last forecast from the NWS, this morning, ended up verifying pretty well (although the forecast from last night was still pretty high and the one from yesterday morning was way high). Reports of 4-9" in Sussex, 3-6" in Morris, 2-3" in northern Somerset and northern Hunterdon, up by 78, 2-3" in Bergen, 3-5" in NW Passaic, 3-7" in the Poconos and generally 5-10" N of 84 in NEPA, SENY and CT with some 18-36" amounts in the mountains from the Catskills to the Adirondacks to New England. Even Freehold surprisingly reported 1". But also, lots of places south of 78 and even N of 78 in NENJ/NYC reporting <1" or even nada, as the bands that came through and lasted were not hitting everywhere equally at all. Will post a map when all the reports are in and scrubbed (reports before noon are meaningless with more snow that fell after).

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/TextProduct?product=pnsphi
Fascinating snowfall map - as often happens in mid-March with warmer temps and longer days, snowfall amounts varied hugely over small distances, especially with elevation. You can see this in NJ in Sussex/Morris/NW Passaic (note: the issue for Warren and the Lehigh Valley wasn't elevation, it was lack of precip that far SW) and also in SENY, CT, MA, from SE to NW. If this snow had happened at night or on a colder day, we would've had 3-5" of snow throughout most of NJ along and SE of 95 to the coast and elsewhere. Can see how hard it would be to try to forecast this storm.


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The map in the Tweet below, which zooms in on the Hudson River Valley, shows it incredibly well: look at all the blue (2-6") going up the Hudson River in the Hudson Valley and on each side of the river as one goes up a bit in elevation (especially west of the river in the Catskills) the snowfall amounts increase tremendously, with the biggest gradient from 0.1" recorded in Saugerties in NE Ulster County to 36" recorded a few miles west up in the Catskills.

 
  • Wow
Reactions: Postman_1
Not sure I believe this but crazy if true. 3.69 miles separates 36" of snow. Is Saugerties elevation that much highr?
 
Saugerties is the low elevation (~500 ft) location that got 0.1", while Palenville, 3.7 miles away, is over 3000' and got 36". Just crazy.
Moist adiabatic lapse rate: 3.3 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet elevation change. Approximately. So all things being equal, it could easily be 33 and raining in Saugerties, while 23 and puking snow in Palenville 3.7 miles horizontal distance, 3000 feet elevation away.
 
Not sure I believe this but crazy if true. 3.69 miles separates 36" of snow. Is Saugerties elevation that much highr?

Saugerties is the low elevation (~500 ft) location that got 0.1", while Palenville, 3.7 miles away, is over 3000' and got 36". Just crazy.

Moist adiabatic lapse rate: 3.3 degrees Fahrenheit per 1000 feet elevation change. Approximately. So all things being equal, it could easily be 33 and raining in Saugerties, while 23 and puking snow in Palenville 3.7 miles horizontal distance, 3000 feet elevation away.

I just find that kind of shit seriously cool.
 
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