OT: More chance of a 70F Christmas...Wintry Precip for NW sections Mon Night
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We can all blame one person for this.......................................Kyle Flood!!![winking]
I personally don't put much stock in anything beyond a week for specific weather and beyond 2-3 weeks for trends. Deterministic models used to forecast actual weather conditions in the future, based on current conditions and actual meteorology/physics, become useless after about 8-10 days, as the "cone of uncertainty" becomes huge, due to the chaotic nature of weather (the butterfly effect).
The people who forecast beyond 2 weeks utilize analog-based forecasting, where one compares the current state, globally, with states that were similar with respect to various global/regional indices (like El Nino, the Arctic Oscillation, the PDO, EPO, NAO, SO, etc.) in past years and then use essentially pattern recognition skills to find the best "match" - often the closest matches had similar evolutions from the current state through weeks or even months, so they then will "predict" that we'll have similar outcomes this month/season.
The problem is this technique is fraught with errors and only some to most of the "matches" agree with each other, so it becomes a probabilistic analog-based forecast and I've yet to see anyone do this well yet, with the possible exception of Dr. Grey's seasonal tropical activity forecast, where he's been "accurate" (i.e., predicting above, below or average activity at maybe a 60% clip, as opposed to random guessing, which would be 33% accurate with 3 choices).
So, I don't put much stock in trend forecasts beyond a few weeks. The only slight pleasure I get is in seeing the Farmer's Almanac being so wrong this year so far. Their record sucks, but despite that some people will tout it, which I just don't get.
Nope. That was my senior year of high school and frosh year at RU respectively and both winters were incredibly mild with maybe one minimal snowfall each winter if that. I remember wearing short sleeves in December and no jackets even in February. Part of it was being young/tough/dumb but it was also bearable. 2001-2002 was another very mild winter.
if you deny global warming you are part of the reason the republican party will have a tough time winning the presidency in 2016.
Weather isn't Climate? Or does that only work when it supports AGW?
Please expand on this idea for me. I really want to know how's Cali's opinion will affect the 2016 election.
If you are 25 year's old or younger and you hear a politician deny global warming, you are going to have a hard time voting for them, even if they some other good policies.
Y are u shaking your head, what does the A in AGW stand for, GW i assume is global warming what is the A
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=What+Does+AGW+Stand+for
You're under 25 and don't know how to use the internet?
You're over 25 and a condescending prick to someone who merely asked you a question?
the weenies are hoping for a backended winter that starts in late Jan and early Feb..yes at some point it will get cooler but El Ninos traditionally aren't very wintery analog wise. Some long long range forecasts continue the warmth right for the next 6 months
Wow. I google an answer FOR you and you insult me. I was right the first time. SMH.
Remember though that the flip side to the warm December is sandy. You can't have one without the other.
What does our pre-game prep for next season's games have to do with the weather?
So, a politician who denies global warming will lose about 3 votes?
I'm not saying they have to make it a big deal on their platform, but someone who denies something proven scientifically and something that most children under 25 have been learning about since elementary school or middle school it is hard to vote for that person. I for instance might like some of Ben Carson's policies but then he says evolution is a myth, how the hell can i vote for someone who denies science and something I have been learning about since a young age. A lot of people in this generation are more open to voting for Republicans than the people the same age in 08 but things like denying Global Warming, and evolution make it hard for someone fresh out of college or in college to vote for that candidate not to mention pro choice/ pro life debate, but that is not really as much an issue of science. If the republicans modified their position on a few certain things a lot more young people would consider voting for them, people are tired of the PC libs, but they would rather vote for a dem than someone who denies something they have been learning about since a young age and something that is proven through science aka the religion of truths and absolutes.
usually the summers after El Nino are HOT..this year had some hot days but nothing crazy..next year could shape up as a classic hot summer based on analogs
So, this is one time that a forecast beyond 7 days has delivered as advertised, although temps are usually easier to forecast than precip. Looking like mid/upper 60s tomorrow (late), then low/mid-70s for 12/24, shattering records by 5-10F in most locations (and nearing all-time Dec highs), then still mid-60s on Christmas for most of the area. Unbelievable. I'll be in FL, where it will be in the 80s every day with lows not getting below 70F, which is pretty warm, even for Vero Beach.
This December is now off the charts warm. In Philly, for example, if forecasts hold, this December will not only be the warmest ever, but it will likely be 5F warmer than the 2nd warmest December - most "warmest" months are about 1F warmer than the 2nd warmest. And think about this: this December would likely rank as the 3rd warmest March on record or the 8th warmest November, which is just silly warm. Here's the discussion from NWS-Philly:
.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23. THE
CALENDAR DAY HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE AFTER A WARM FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE WARM
FRONT BUT THE EARLIER THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT HERE, THE MORE
LIKELY THESE DAILY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24TH. CURRENTLY,
RECORD HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL 8 CLIMATE SITES.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE LISTS THE DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 23 AND
24TH THAT ARE IN JEOPARDY AT OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES.
DECEMBER 23 DECEMBER 24
SITE RECORD HIGH YEAR(S) SET RECORD HIGH YEAR(S) SET
----------- ----------- ----------- -----------
ACY 65 1990 65 1982
PHL 66 1990 64 1990, 2014
ILG 66 1990 65 2014
ABE 64 1990 62 1990
TTN 70 1891 63 1990, 2014
GED 68 1949, 2013 69 2014
RDG 63 1990, 2007 63 1990
MPO 58 1990 62 1990
WE MAY APPROACH ALL-TIME MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS (I.E., THE WARMEST DAY
IN DECEMBER) AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ON THE 24TH ARE WITHIN
1-3 DEGREES OF THESE MONTHLY RECORDS AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
MONTHLY RECORD
SITE HIGHS FOR DECEMBER DATE(S) SET
------------------ -----------
PHL 73 12/4/1998, 12/7/1998
ACY 77 12/7/1998
ILG 75 12/4/1998
ABE 72 12/29/1984, 12/4/1998, 12/1/2006
TTN 76 12/7/1998
GED 77 12/1/1991
RDG 77 12/29/1984
MPO 67 12/13/2015
DECEMBER 2015 IS ON PACE TO SET THE ALL-TIME MONTHLY RECORD FOR
THE WARMEST DECEMBER AT PHILADELPHIA. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FROM
DECEMBER 1-21ST AT PHL AIRPORT WAS 49.4F (10.6F ABOVE NORMAL)
WHICH IS THE WARMEST ON RECORD THROUGH THE FIRST 21 DAYS OF THE
MONTH. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST WAS 48.6F IN 2001.
MEAN TEMPERATURES THE LAST 10 DAYS OF THE MONTH (DECEMBER 22-31)
WOULD HAVE TO AVERAGE 34.5F (OR 0.2F BELOW NORMAL) TO TIE DECEMBER
1923 FOR THE WARMEST DECEMBER ON RECORD AT PHILADELPHIA (44.6F).
BASED ON OUR CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
57F (20-25F ABOVE NORMAL) FROM DECEMBER 22-28 AND CPC`S 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK OF CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, WE`LL SMASH THE PREVIOUS
RECORD BY MORE THAN 5F!
TO TRY TO PUT THE ABOVE INTO PERSPECTIVE...
THERE IS ONLY ONE OTHER OCCURRENCE IN THE PHILADELPHIA RECORD
BOOKS WHERE THE WARMEST MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE WAS MORE THAN ONE
DEGREE HIGHER THAN THE SECOND WARMEST... THE MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE OF 46.2F IN JANUARY 1932 IS 2.9F ABOVE THE SECOND
WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD (1950). BASED ON THE WHAT`S HAPPENED SO
FAR THIS MONTH AND OUR 7-DAY FORECAST, THE MEAN MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE PROJECTED THRU THE 28TH WOULD BE 51.2F. COMPARED TO
OTHER MONTHS (AND ASSUMING THE MONTHLY MEAN DOESN`T CHANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST THREE DAYS OF THE MONTH), THIS WOULD
RANK DECEMBER 2015 IN THE TOP THREE WARMEST MARCHES ON RECORD, IN
THE TOP 8 WARMEST NOVEMBERS ON RECORD AND ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW
THE MONTHLY NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL!
OFFICIAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR PHILADELPHIA DATE BACK TO
1872.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
So, and correct me if I'm wrong, what you're saying is that we're not going to get more than a couple inches of snow at the most for Christmas?
out here in Tahoe we are supposed to get about a foot on Thu night. Just had 3 feet last night. Before yesterday we already had more snow than all of last year.
You lose credibility when u lump those that are rightly sceptical of the science behind AGW and those that dont believe in evolution. Most that are in the former are not in the latter. Why not throw Holocaust deniars in there too or the crazies that think 9/11 was an inside job.
Anti-evolution & anti-climate science both have their roots in religion. "End-times" believers are less likely to be concerned or willing to act on climate change. I wouldn't care if these lunatics were only found on street corners with cardboard signs, but they're in congress too. It's fair to say that as religiosity increases so does the denial of evolution AND of the risk posed by global warming. It's all in god's hands. Let's pray away our problems.
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