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OT: Rollercoaster Weather To Continue...

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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Metuchen, NJ
After today's near record highs (78F in NB vs. 56F normal and 83F record) and heavy downpours with the arrival of the first cold front of the weekend, there's more to come in the wake of the 2nd and more powerful cold front, which arrives Saturday evening.

High wind watches are up, as we are likely to see sustained winds of 25-35 mph with possible gusts of 50-60 mph late Saturday into Sunday morning. Gusts like that could cause some damage, including downed trees and power lines. Might want to put away any loose items.

In addition, we're likely to see some rain showers late Saturday, ending as snow on early Sunday, north of I-78, and especially north of I-80, where an inch or maybe 2" could fall in the higher elevations of NW NJ, the Poconos and Catskills on early Sunday. Anywhere with falling snow and high winds could see difficult travel conditions. Could even see some flurries and a dusting as far south as the Raritan River.

There's a second chance of snow for mostly northern sections of the area (north of 78 and moreso north of 80) on Monday night, with an approaching clipper system. Given that it's April and temps will be in the low 50s during the day, as temps drop later in the evening any snow that falls is likely only going to accumulate on grassy surfaces. Like any spring snowfall, accumulations are much more likely after dark and if intensity is high - we'll likely have snowfall after dark in northern sections, but intensity is not looking high.

Finally, it's also going to be a chilly early April with temps below freezing for most of us on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights, with near record cold possible early Wednesday with temps in the low 20s. Nothing unbearable - mostly pointing this out to anyone who is thinking about doing any plantings before then or who has agricultural interests.

One more thing: for areas north of 84, which have been nearly shut out this winter, these next two storms could deliver 6" or more of snow. Interesting stat: Albany has only had 10" of snow this winter vs. 30-40" for most of Central/North Jersey and NYC/LI, but they might double their snowfall in the next 4 days. Interesting write up by the WPC on these storms.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

P.S. This probably would've been the year to make an April Fool's Day post calling for a major snowstorm, since reality isn't that far off, lol...


StormTotalSnowWeb1.png
 
The good thing about snow in April, if it falls, is that it doesn't last...snow any time of the year sucks, but when all the forsythia and flowering trees are in blooms, it seems like even the possibility is a cruel joke...surprised there wasn't a 20 page thread on this already!
 
You don't see this very often:

THE QUICKLY DEEPENING LOW AND THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BRING A VERY STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WIND TO OUR REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LATE
TONIGHT.
 
You don't see this very often:

THE QUICKLY DEEPENING LOW AND THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BRING A VERY STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WIND TO OUR REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LATE
TONIGHT.

You forgot the good part. Maybe Mt. Holly did too, I didn't read the narrative.

The soaking rains of the last 25 hours combined with extreme winds overnight tonight will lead to downed trees. Expect road closures and scattered power outages early in the day on Sunday.
 
Corey and I were up around 7 so that I could take my Camaro SS for inspection - it was 60'ish and rainy. Just stuck my head out now - the temperature has dropped 15-20 degrees with bright sunshine.
 
You don't see this very often:

THE QUICKLY DEEPENING LOW AND THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BRING A VERY STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WIND TO OUR REGION FOR
LATE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 TO
40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR LATE
TONIGHT.
Landing at EWR at midnight. Will flights be messed up?
 
And the bar for weather threads keeps getting lower and lower. I look forward to the thread on sunshine and warm temps in the summer.

A hurricane is something like sustained winds of 74 mpg. You're right, gusts of 60mpg aren't worth talking about...
 
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A hurricane is something like sustained winds of 74 mpg. You're right, gusts of 60mpg aren't worth talking about...
Exactly. A hurricane has sustained winds of 75 mpg and tomorrow night will be only 25 mpg. Big whoop.
 
Exactly. A hurricane has sustained winds of 75 mpg and tomorrow night will be only 25 mpg. Big whoop.

Nobody said anything about tomorrow night.

Tool.

Tonight into tomorrow AM, sustained winds 30-40 mph with gusts to 60.

Tool.

I think I might spend some of those nice warm days this summer spreading word among your constituency as to what a

Tool.

you are.
 
Nobody said anything about tomorrow night.

Tool.

Tonight into tomorrow AM, sustained winds 30-40 mph with gusts to 60.

Tool.

I think I might spend some of those nice warm days this summer spreading word among your constituency as to what a

Tool.

you are.
Nope, max sustained winds at 26 mph. Good try though!
 
Landing at EWR at midnight. Will flights be messed up?

Flights will be affected, but you might get in under the wire, with the worst winds arriving after midnight. Good luck.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. A WEST
NORTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS. THE VERY STRONG WIND WILL LIKELY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION.

Plotter.php
 
You forgot the good part. Maybe Mt. Holly did too, I didn't read the narrative.

The soaking rains of the last 25 hours combined with extreme winds overnight tonight will lead to downed trees. Expect road closures and scattered power outages early in the day on Sunday.

Good point about the impact of the rain on the trees, although a fair amount less rain fell than I thought yesterday, with most areas only getting around 1/4" and nobody getting over 1/2". Today, most have only gotten 0.1-0.2", except near the Shore, where many got 1/2-3/4" so far.

http://www.njweather.org/data/sub/1/day
 
Good point about the impact of the rain on the trees, although a fair amount less rain fell than I thought yesterday, with most areas only getting around 1/4" and nobody getting over 1/2". Today, most have only gotten 0.1-0.2", except near the Shore, where many got 1/2-3/4" so far.

http://www.njweather.org/data/sub/1/day

1 1/4" in the last 24 hours here. I have the best rain gauge in the world (the pool).

We had a cell blow up on top of us around 7pm last night that gave us an inch of that total in about 30 minutes. It was pretty intense.
 
Flights will be affected, but you might get in under the wire, with the worst winds arriving after midnight. Good luck.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. A WEST
NORTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS. THE VERY STRONG WIND WILL LIKELY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AVIATION.

Plotter.php
I'm supposed to land at jfk at noon
 
I'm supposed to land at jfk at noon

By noon you might be okay.

As I said to you in email, the issue you're going to face is that the wind direction will present a crosswind component to all runways at JFK - about 45 degrees to the runway headings.

If the wind speed is 30 mph, that's a 21 mph crosswind component (and a 21 mph headwind component, which is actually a good thing). 21 mph is below the demonstrated crosswind threshold of most commercial airliners, but it could be a fun landing.
 
By noon you might be okay.

As I said to you in email, the issue you're going to face is that the wind direction will present a crosswind component to all runways at JFK - about 45 degrees to the runway headings.

If the wind speed is 30 mph, that's a 21 mph crosswind component (and a 21 mph headwind component, which is actually a good thing). 21 mph is below the demonstrated crosswind threshold of most commercial airliners, but it could be a fun landing.
I know what you said and trust you. Bored watching kids swim so figured I add to a weather thread. More posts usually equals more drama.
 
1 1/4" in the last 24 hours here. I have the best rain gauge in the world (the pool).

We had a cell blow up on top of us around 7pm last night that gave us an inch of that total in about 30 minutes. It was pretty intense.

Yep, not a much better rain gauge than a pool. Slightly less than 1/2" here in the last 24. If this had been snow I'd have been jealous, lol. Once again further proof that nobody cares about the big areal precip disparities we often see with mesoscale instability-driven showers when it's warm...
 
Yep, not a much better rain gauge than a pool. Slightly less than 1/2" here in the last 24. If this had been snow I'd have been jealous, lol. Once again further proof that nobody cares about the big areal precip disparities we often see with mesoscale instability-driven showers when it's warm...

I was actually surprised, because we typically see squall lines get shredded pretty well right before they get to us. Some combination of terrain and the marine layer keeps the real heavy convection 5 miles north and 5 miles south of where I'm sitting. Last night it looked like it was going to go exactly the same way, then a new cell spun up right on top of us.
 
By noon you might be okay.

As I said to you in email, the issue you're going to face is that the wind direction will present a crosswind component to all runways at JFK - about 45 degrees to the runway headings.

If the wind speed is 30 mph, that's a 21 mph crosswind component (and a 21 mph headwind component, which is actually a good thing). 21 mph is below the demonstrated crosswind threshold of most commercial airliners, but it could be a fun landing.

Crosswind vectors are key, as you noted (tailwinds, too, although airports rarely allow flights to land with much of a tailwind - they'll just reverse the landing direction, as headwinds are no issue for landings/takeoffs). Type of aircraft is a factor, too. Forecast still calling for ~30 mph sustained winds and 50+ mph gusts through mid-afternoon tomorrow area-wide, including at JFK and they have to factor in the gusts, which in many ways can be a bigger factor than the sustained winds, which are "steady state" and easier to plan for, vs. gusts, which are unsteady state and impossible to predict/plan for. It's not 100% clear to me, though, how the gusts get factored in.

Interesting thread on some of this in the first link and a harrowing video of an aborted landing in serious crosswinds in Germay from a few years ago,where the wings scraped the ground. We once landed at Shannon, Ireland in gale force winds with a major crosswind component. I honestly thought we might buy it on that flight, but the pilot got it down, although it was a white knuckle landing.

http://www.liveatc.net/forums/pilotcontroller-forum/maximum-wind-speed-for-takeofflanding/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/How-dangerous-is-flying-in-high-winds/
 
Crosswind vectors are key, as you noted (tailwinds, too, although airports rarely allow flights to land with much of a tailwind - they'll just reverse the landing direction, as headwinds are no issue for landings/takeoffs). Type of aircraft is a factor, too. Forecast still calling for ~30 mph sustained winds and 50+ mph gusts through mid-afternoon tomorrow area-wide, including at JFK and they have to factor in the gusts, which in many ways can be a bigger factor than the sustained winds, which are "steady state" and easier to plan for, vs. gusts, which are unsteady state and impossible to predict/plan for. It's not 100% clear to me, though, how the gusts get factored in.

Interesting thread on some of this in the first link and a harrowing video of an aborted landing in serious crosswinds in Germay from a few years ago,where the wings scraped the ground. We once landed at Shannon, Ireland in gale force winds with a major crosswind component. I honestly thought we might buy it on that flight, but the pilot got it down, although it was a white knuckle landing.

http://www.liveatc.net/forums/pilotcontroller-forum/maximum-wind-speed-for-takeofflanding/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/How-dangerous-is-flying-in-high-winds/

I can tell you exactly how "gusts get factored in".

It's called "flying the airplane".
 
I can tell you exactly how "gusts get factored in".

It's called "flying the airplane".

lol, I imagine that's all one can do, since gusts are impossible to predict. My question, though, was really around whether or not the airports/pilots factor the gusts into safety calculations (and whether to allow takeoffs/landings) or whether they only look at sustained winds. The sources I was looking through didn't distinguish - given your experience, thought you might know...
 
Just applied a strong coat of this:

201182275_full.jpg


Gonna keep an eye out for downed trees tomorrow in case I can harvest some wood from them.
 
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lol, I imagine that's all one can do, since gusts are impossible to predict. My question, though, was really around whether or not the airports/pilots factor the gusts into safety calculations (and whether to allow takeoffs/landings) or whether they only look at sustained winds. The sources I was looking through didn't distinguish - given your experience, thought you might know...

It depends on whether or not the crosswind component is borderline. If it is, then a Pilot In Command might make a no-go decision. Take-offs aren't as critical, regardless, because the aircraft is powering up and there's scads of additional margin. Landings are a different story because you're bleeding energy and with most aircraft (and all big jets) it takes a pretty long time to spin it back up.

There was a video on CNN's web site last week that they were all agog over, which showed an RJ landing in about a 25 kt crosswind. Once you got past the media hysterics, it was actually a perfectly performed crosswind landing. It was also pretty informative, if you looked closely enough - the aircraft was configured for take-off, and not landing. Flaps were 10 degrees down, airspeed was consequently higher than a normal approach. The two reasons for this is that the extra energy gives you a buffer against sudden gusts and, if you seriously screw the pooch, you don't have to wait for the wing to clean up - just pour on the throttle and get the hell out of dodge.

To your point, and from my own personal experience, the demonstrated crosswind capability of your garden variety Cessna is 12-15 kts, depending on the model. I've landed in steady 25 kt winds with no trouble. I've aborted landings in 5 kt winds that suddenly gusted to 20.
 
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Crosswind vectors are key, as you noted (tailwinds, too, although airports rarely allow flights to land with much of a tailwind - they'll just reverse the landing direction, as headwinds are no issue for landings/takeoffs). Type of aircraft is a factor, too. Forecast still calling for ~30 mph sustained winds and 50+ mph gusts through mid-afternoon tomorrow area-wide, including at JFK and they have to factor in the gusts, which in many ways can be a bigger factor than the sustained winds, which are "steady state" and easier to plan for, vs. gusts, which are unsteady state and impossible to predict/plan for. It's not 100% clear to me, though, how the gusts get factored in.

Interesting thread on some of this in the first link and a harrowing video of an aborted landing in serious crosswinds in Germay from a few years ago,where the wings scraped the ground. We once landed at Shannon, Ireland in gale force winds with a major crosswind component. I honestly thought we might buy it on that flight, but the pilot got it down, although it was a white knuckle landing.

http://www.liveatc.net/forums/pilotcontroller-forum/maximum-wind-speed-for-takeofflanding/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/How-dangerous-is-flying-in-high-winds/

Thanks for putting my mind at ease as we leave Houston. All the talk of vectors:
53D3E324-7EE4-4CF4-A480-1FC5129D5066.jpg
 
National Weather Service Update:

"The time has come to move to a safe place for the next few hours. A band of showers is going to rush east across much of southeastern PA, E MD, DE, southern and central NJ between 1015 pm and midnight with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. this could cause power outages and local damage. In the meantime, scattered heavy showers and thunderstormns precede, over the Demarva and s NJ and will produce pea sized hail in a few spots between now and 11 pm."
 
The initial squall line is on NJ's doorstep, moving east at about 60 mph, and should reach western NJ by 11:30 pm and the I-95 corridor by about 12:00-12:30 pm. Wind gusts of up to 66 mph have been reported with this squall line, along with briefly heavy showers. Winds behind the squall line will gust up to 50-60 mph until early afternoon tomorrow, as has been predicted. Will be interesting to see if snow squalls make it as far south as Central Jersey or not.
 
The whole house just shook - Tyler and Corey are asking about it.
 
Came over my house about midnite. Dog in closet digging a holle to China...doesn't like thunder. Looks like from radar the worst is south of Hillsborough.
 
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