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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

I’m not an expert on TQQQ but have looked at it a few times recently:

TQQQ in this volatile market is a risky play with so much potential downside right now...but Im sure you can make a good amount of money playing it right.

I just have 30 day holds so wont work for me. If capitulation happens, which I expect over the next few weeks, could be a nice buy then for medium term
 
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What does that mean? Sorry for the rookie question.
I've never used them but they use derivatives to juice up returns and are suppose to track an index. It could be 2x, 3x long or short an index. They're not perfect tracking instruments though and you have to be careful.

I remember there was a time many years ago things like QID, TLT, TBT, DOG, DXD, SH etc...were quite the thing. I never used them though.

I suppose on some level they could be used as hedge for a retail guy. If you want to go long but are worried then maybe get short etf or vice versa a long etf if you're short but if you don't have a full understanding (which I don't) of derivatives and how they affect the movement it might be better to stay away.
 
TQQQ in this volatile market is a risky play with so much potential downside right now...but Im sure you can make a good amount of money playing it right.

I just have 30 day holds so wont work for me. If capitulation happens, which I expect over the next few weeks, could be a nice buy then for medium term
Is it just supposed to be a quick trade to take advantage of volatility or do folks actually hold it for a longer period of time?
 
Is it just supposed to be a quick trade to take advantage of volatility or do folks actually hold it for a longer period of time?
IMO it's a short term thing not a long term thing, especially the leverage ones where you can get hurt.
 
Is it just supposed to be a quick trade to take advantage of volatility or do folks actually hold it for a longer period of time?
The question to ask yourself is are you willing to take a 90% decrease in value and then buy more? While the upside is fun, the downside is not.
 
So even though I like this lineup long term, this is not the type of investment to buy and hold?

MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU)
NameSymbol% Assets
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADRBABA10.00%
Alphabet Inc AGOOGL10.00%
Amazon.com IncAMZN10.00%
Apple IncAAPL10.00%
Baidu Inc ADRBIDU10.00%
Facebook Inc AFB10.00%
Netflix IncNFLX10.00%
NVIDIA CorpNVDA10.00%
Tesla IncTSLA10.00%
Twitter IncTWTR10.00%
 
So even though I like this lineup long term, this is not the type of investment to buy and hold?

MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU)
NameSymbol% Assets
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADRBABA10.00%
Alphabet Inc AGOOGL10.00%
Amazon.com IncAMZN10.00%
Apple IncAAPL10.00%
Baidu Inc ADRBIDU10.00%
Facebook Inc AFB10.00%
Netflix IncNFLX10.00%
NVIDIA CorpNVDA10.00%
Tesla IncTSLA10.00%
Twitter IncTWTR10.00%
I agree with the poster above who said leverage is nice when things are hunky dory but it can really bite you if things turn down, more than you expect so better have a good understanding of it imo.

2008 crash with the banks in large part due to crazy leverage.
 
So even though I like this lineup long term, this is not the type of investment to buy and hold?

MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU)
NameSymbol% Assets
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADRBABA10.00%
Alphabet Inc AGOOGL10.00%
Amazon.com IncAMZN10.00%
Apple IncAAPL10.00%
Baidu Inc ADRBIDU10.00%
Facebook Inc AFB10.00%
Netflix IncNFLX10.00%
NVIDIA CorpNVDA10.00%
Tesla IncTSLA10.00%
Twitter IncTWTR10.00%
TQQQ uses derivatives to achieve their 3x leverage. Not sure about FNGU. If/when the market is crashing, the derivates head towards $0 and will be worthless at some point. So, you run out of time to make the $ back. If you just hold the common stock or QQQ, you can hold for ever and not worry about the derivatives within the portfolio expiring worthless. I guess another question to ask yourself is would you buy QQQ on margin? Or, would you buy long term options on QQQ? If the answer is no, then why buy an investment that does it?
 
So even though I like this lineup long term, this is not the type of investment to buy and hold?

MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU)
NameSymbol% Assets
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADRBABA10.00%
Alphabet Inc AGOOGL10.00%
Amazon.com IncAMZN10.00%
Apple IncAAPL10.00%
Baidu Inc ADRBIDU10.00%
Facebook Inc AFB10.00%
Netflix IncNFLX10.00%
NVIDIA CorpNVDA10.00%
Tesla IncTSLA10.00%
Twitter IncTWTR10.00%
All depends on your risk tolerance. If you had bought this 1-2yrs ago you are probably flying high up until events events the past month. No one can predict the markets though and why these SHOUDL be used for short term plays
 
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Leverage juices returns when the underlying assets are rising. But no free lunch. It exacerbates losses on the way down. Better be sure of yourself when employing it. Just tons of volatility in the world equity markets right now. Be safe.
 
So even though I like this lineup long term, this is not the type of investment to buy and hold?

MicroSectors FANG+ Index 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGU)
NameSymbol% Assets
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ADRBABA10.00%
Alphabet Inc AGOOGL10.00%
Amazon.com IncAMZN10.00%
Apple IncAAPL10.00%
Baidu Inc ADRBIDU10.00%
Facebook Inc AFB10.00%
Netflix IncNFLX10.00%
NVIDIA CorpNVDA10.00%
Tesla IncTSLA10.00%
Twitter IncTWTR10.00%
I mentioned FNGU before. I will buy it if they can replace the two Chinese companies with MSFT and ADBE.
 
The question to ask yourself is are you willing to take a 90% decrease in value and then buy more? While the upside is fun, the downside is not.
It has to be with WTF money. However, if you actually hold it long term and don't look at it, it can work very well. Bottom line, the market generally goes up and that will continue. As long as it does, you can make mad returns since that 3x also compounds over time.
 
This is the time-decay issue - right?
But these are ETFs, so I think that stuff is behind the scenes and may not directly impact the investor (at least visibly). The charts seems to track pretty much as expected for TQQQ and UPRO. I don't see any surprises yet.
 
TQQQ uses derivatives to achieve their 3x leverage. Not sure about FNGU. If/when the market is crashing, the derivates head towards $0 and will be worthless at some point. So, you run out of time to make the $ back. If you just hold the common stock or QQQ, you can hold for ever and not worry about the derivatives within the portfolio expiring worthless. I guess another question to ask yourself is would you buy QQQ on margin? Or, would you buy long term options on QQQ? If the answer is no, then why buy an investment that does it?
No.
No.
I shouldn't.
Thank you for the explanation.

As TK said, this might be fun to throw a few bucks at and hope for a rebound, but this is out of my comfort zone for serious investing. More like gambling.
 
S

Shiller PE ratio just before noon today was 35.72. That kind of indicates valuation has a way to go, no? Median is around 16.90.
Yea, but everyone is only concentrating on the Tech stocks, plenty of S& P stocks that have high PE that need to fall. I sold off some stocks ETF I brought yesterday before the market opened to bring stocks allocation down to 30%. This is going to take a lot longer than I want. I knew the answer but don’t like it.
 
No.
No.
I shouldn't.
Thank you for the explanation.

As TK said, this might be fun to throw a few bucks at and hope for a rebound, but this is out of my comfort zone for serious investing. More like gambling.
The series was created as inter day trading vehicles and a way to hedge on the short side. I guess you could also use the leverage to not put all your money at risk. You can get similar exposure to the Q's, but only put 1/3 of your money at risk and keep the other 2/3 in cash. But, that is not really their objective.
@T2Kplus20 and @BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap

You can lose money even if the fund ends in the green.
Yes, most people do not realize this.
 
Yea, but everyone is only concentrating on the Tech stocks, plenty of S& P stocks that have high PE that need to fall. I sold off some stocks ETF I brought yesterday before the market opened to bring stocks allocation down to 30%. This is going to take a lot longer than I want. I knew the answer but don’t like it.
Many many folks invest in SP 500 index funds. They've done well. Do they take profits amidst what could be an extended downturn? Or do they sit and watch their profit potentially fizzle?

As for the recent SP500 run up, the real gains have been in a half-dozen stocks (FAANG), no? The other 494 have languished, no?
 
Shiller PE ratio just before noon today was 35.72. That kind of indicates valuation has a way to go, no? Median is around 16.90.
Mid caps and small caps have PEs lowest since 2011. S&P is higher, but will never get down to that level due to big tech that deserve higher valuations.
 
Many many folks invest in SP 500 index funds. They've done well. Do they take profits amidst what could be an extended downturn? Or do they sit and watch their profit potentially fizzle?

As for the recent SP500 run up, the real gains have been in a half-dozen stocks (FAANG), no? The other 494 have languished, no?
Most folks own index funds in 401ks and won't look at them until retirement. The vast, vast, vast majority of investors are passive in every sense of the word.
 
@T2Kplus20 and @BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap

the leverage funds are NOT for long term holds. They are for short term directional bets. It tracks 3x the movement. You can lose money even if the fund ends in the green.
Please explain. The TQQQ doesn't indicate this:

 
Mid caps and small caps have PEs lowest since 2011. S&P is higher, but will never get down to that level due to big tech that deserve higher valuations.
But large cap indexes particularly the S&P dwarfs its small and mid cap indices in term of $ invested, no?
 
Most folks own index funds in 401ks and won't look at them until retirement. The vast, vast, vast majority of investors are passive in every sense of the word.
I strongly disagree with this. Even passive investors will "pay attention" when the markets pull back. People talk. They log in and react.

Further, retail investing has experienced a new "uptick" with the emergence of Robinhood and crypto etc. Lots of new investors (speculators) in play, for now. I've been to a few rodeos. We seem to be in a perfect storm scenario, I fear.

Institutional investors? Unsure how they'll process what's occurring and what adjustments they'll make. With that, I tend to look closely at indices as the canary in the coal mine.
 
Dow should be green by day's end. Other indices should bounce back as well.

Oh, and anyone who is in a 3x inverse ETF better not be in it for longer than a month or you're taking an L. Very short term investment due to roll yield and decay. When I'm looking to roll the dice in these volatile markets I'll mess around with UVXY and SVXY but those are 1-2 day plays at most.
 
Go to the ProFunds web page and not M*.

The data in M* are the bottom line results. Of course there can be some day to day variation, which actually means you should hold longer to smooth it out. Obviously, the big risk is just getting crushed on a large downturn, but that is easily mitigate by stop loss orders. Definitely very, very risky, but can be useful after some market weakness.

Regardless, fascinating to learn about! :)
 
Another turn from red to green or near green. Still below the 200DMA on both the SP and Nasdaq.

MSFT earnings and guidance after hours I think will be important. Can it create enough positive sentiment? On the flipside if anything out of place, could it create a NFLX type slide down and maybe more considering it's a more important bell weather and widely held.
 
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Another turn from red to green or near green. Still below the 200DMA on both the SP and Nasdaq.

MSFT earnings and guidance after hours I think will be important. Can it create enough positive sentiment? On the flipside if anything out of place, could it create a NFLX type slide down and maybe more considering it's a more important bell weather and widely held.
Thanks for the TKR jinx. 😜
 
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MSFT down 4-5% right after the close. Probably need a deeper dive into the earnings but right now it's sell first and ask questions later. If this sticks then market will likely be down tomorrow IMO.

Earnings were in line and a beat but might not be a big enough beat. Guidance not released yet.
 
MSFT down 4-5% right after the close. Probably need a deeper dive into the earnings but right now it's sell first and ask questions later. If this sticks then market will likely be down tomorrow IMO.

Earnings were in line and a beat but might not be a big enough beat. Guidance not released yet.
Strong earnings, double beat!

Earnings: $2.48, adjusted, vs. $2.31 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.

Revenue: $51.73 billion, vs. $50.88 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv.

Revenue increased by 20% year over year in the quarter, according to a statement, compared with almost 22% growth in the previous quarter.
 
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Thanks for the TKR jinx. 😜
The sentiment is skewed to the negative. Like I've told you it's not that you beat, it's how much you beat by and how good is the guidance. The slightest hint of something "wrong" and you'll get whacked.

A MSFT getting hit will feed into the negative market sentiment more than NFLX did IMO.
 
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Seeing MSFT at $289 right now on my Bloomberg. 12 month average price is $281, high of $343 on 11/19/21, low of $227 on 3/04/21.
 
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