OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

Surprised it isn't AAPL. I have accumulated a huge amount of AAPL over the years.

MSFT is one of the top holdings in many of my growth funds, but unlike AAPL, it is also in my damn value funds! Off the top of my head, it is in:

PRWCX
TRVLX
Freaking TRLUX and Invesco Comstock (which are deep value funds)
VIG (dividend appreciation fund)

This is why it has my #1 spot. I use Morningstar's X-Ray Portfolio feature and you can see your stock summary across all funds and etfs.

 

[RUAldo]

MSFT with the (my top holding across all accounts - funds, etfs, stocks):

We need to see where it opens and how the market reacts. Right now, barely up in after hours, I’m not convinced it will soar. Could get stuck in the low $300s for a while.

 

[T2Kplus20]

We need to see where it opens and how the market reacts. Right now, barely up in after hours, I’m not convinced it will soar. Could get stuck in the low $300s for a while.

The next few days will still be emotional for some investors. Once they calm down, MSFT will be > $400.

 

[rutgersguy1]

We need to see where it opens and how the market reacts. Right now, barely up in after hours, I’m not convinced it will soar. Could get stuck in the low $300s for a while.

I think that is very possible. It’s nice that it turned positive but like someone mentioned above extended hours trading is thin. Forget about positive I could even see negative too.

I don’t know what it will do tomorrow but longer term I’m okay with it. If it goes down more I’ll buy more. Was kinda hoping it would knock down some other big tech names to levels I’m willing to buy them. Will have to wait and see.

 

[T2Kplus20]

From the King of us Bulls:

.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7gMdrJLeaE&list=WL&index=17

Market flashing oversold and bullish signs, including inversion of the VIX curve.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Futures up 1% to 2%....thinking I might sell half of the MSFT I got at 285 somewhere in the low 300s if it gets there as I said there is some resistance in that area.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Futures up 1% to 2%....thinking I might sell half of the MSFT I got at 285 somewhere in the low 300s if it gets there as I said there is some resistance in that area.

Why? MSFT going to $400 by the end of the year. At least wait for a new ATH.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Why? MSFT going to $400 by the end of the year. At least wait for a new ATH.

I've got plenty of MSFT and all these other big names at much lower levels that are buy and hold essentially forever. Not to mention its owned in mutual funds I have. Like I say often, it doesn't matter what happens. If I'm buying at a price I'm comfortable owning it I'm good and if I'm ringing the register at a price I'm comfortable selling it I'm good. If it goes to ATHs well great I still own plenty of it, so it doesn't matter.

Don't go broke taking profits and these are trades too. A few dollars here few dollars there, a few percent here a few percent there and it all adds up.

 

[T2Kplus20]

You never know about the Fed, but I think the press conference will have a positive result on the market. For some reason, the market has been in the sky is falling mode and that Powell is going to drop a surprise double rate increase this month and immediately end tampering. I think Powell learned his lesson from 2018 and will continue to play the no surprises game.

Or I can be wrong! :)

 

[RU-05]

Interesting stat I just heard from a guest on CNBC.

Retail trading makes up 20% of money flow, but 80% of market direction.

 

[RU-05]

You never know about the Fed, but I think the press conference will have a positive result on the market. For some reason, the market has been in the sky is falling mode and that Powell is going to drop a surprise double rate increase this month and immediately end tampering. I think Powell learned his lesson from 2018 and will continue to play the no surprises game.

Or I can be wrong! :)

Yeah 4 hikes is considered a lock, I heard one guy say 8, though I assume he wasn't talking just this year.

As Jim Lebenthal, aka farmer Jim, notes it seems people are trying to one up one another as to the number of rate hikes we can expect. Thinks its a bit of hysteria, expects the Fed to react to the data as it comes. Also expects that data will show inflation has peaked and thus the Fed won't need to be as aggressive as some people think.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yeah 4 hikes is considered a lock, I heard one guy say 8, thought I assume he wasn't talking just this year.

As Jim Lebenthal, aka farmer Jim, notes it seems people are trying to one up one another as to the number of rate hikes we can expect. Thinks its a bit of hysteria, expects the Fed to react to the data as it comes. Also expects that data will show inflation has peaked and thus the Fed won't need to be as aggressive as some people think.

+1
Lots of folks are trying to out chicken little each other likely to pump their hedges and short positions.

 

[RU-05]

Regardless of whether MSFT rebounds to the green, it goes to show you even big tech has lost some favor. Sure, MSFT can hit $400 by EOY but they will need to nail execution every quarter. Probably time to come up with new ideas. Healthcare may be the place to hide and thrive. Anyone have any recommendations?

But $400 is 33% on the year.

I often hear MSFT is the most important stock in the market.

So does it's bounce mark the bottom of this dip?

Obviously Powell is a key factor, but I'm doubting he is more hawkish then some expect.

 

[T2Kplus20]

But $400 is 33% on the year.

I often hear MSFT is the most important stock in the market.

So does it's bounce mark the bottom of this dip?

Obviously Powell is a key factor, but I'm doubting he is more hawkish then some expect.

If this is bottom, may be TQQQ time. :)

Anyway, looks like common sense is ruling the day with MSFT (after truly awesome earnings and guidance):

Extended Market
303.48+14.99 (+5.20%)

 

[RUBlackout]

MSFT definitely Carrie’s a ton of weight in the market as it is one of the top holdings across every major index so PMs need to have it in portfolios.

that said no way anyone can call a bottom right now with so many different factors. Grant ham is calling for a super bubble burst and S&P declining 50%

 

[jtung230]

MSFT definitely Carrie’s a ton of weight in the market as it is one of the top holdings across every major index so PMs need to have it in portfolios.

that said no way anyone can call a bottom right now with so many different factors. Grant ham is calling for a super bubble burst and S&P declining 50%

I have a problem with these calls. It’s like heads they win and tails no one cares.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I have a problem with these calls. It’s like heads they win and tails no one cares.

Bears have been calling for crashes and corrections since 2015. Keep yelling the same thing over and over and over again and you are bound to be "right" just by dumb luck.

 

[jtung230]

Bears have been calling for crashes and corrections since 2015. Keep yelling the same thing over and over and over again and you are bound to be "right" just by dumb luck.

Correct. Talk is easy but what is he doing to position himself for the 50% correction. Peter Schiff was the worst and CNBC used to have him on a lot.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Correct. Talk is easy but what is he doing to position himself for the 50% correction. Peter Schiff was the worst and CNBC used to have him on a lot.

Mark Faber Gloom Boom and Bust report.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I assume this morning's green bump will fade a bit as people prepare for Powell at 2:30pm. I may buy some more if this happens.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Perspective from Cramer:

Great EPS and guidance so far: JNJ, PG, IBM, MSFT, UNH, VZ, TRV, AXP, WFC, BAC, RTX, MMM... see a pattern? Or is NFLX the only company that matters?

 

[RUAldo]

But $400 is 33% on the year.

I often hear MSFT is the most important stock in the market.

So does it's bounce mark the bottom of this dip?

Obviously Powell is a key factor, but I'm doubting he is more hawkish then some expect.

While I like MSFT, I said it “can” hit $400 by EOY. I don’t think that’s a slam-dunk by any means because, as you said, it would require a huge run-up and require great execution and growth in what will like be a difficult rate environment.

 

[rutgersguy1]

But $400 is 33% on the year.

I often hear MSFT is the most important stock in the market.

So does it's bounce mark the bottom of this dip?

Obviously Powell is a key factor, but I'm doubting he is more hawkish then some expect.

Short term bottom always possible, longer term bottom who knows. Nasdaq is still below the 200DMA. It can always rebound up to that and then when it gets there will it be rejected or does it break through?

SP is just about there as well but not a clear break through or rejection yet.

MSFT is hovering in that low 300s range I mentioned could be some resistance.

AMZN as well also hasn't yet gotten through that 2900 level I've mentioned.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Short term bottom always possible, longer term bottom who knows. Nasdaq is still below the 200DMA. It can always rebound up to that and then when it gets there will it be rejected or does it break through?

SP is just about there as well but not a clear break through or rejection yet.

MSFT is hovering in that low 300s range I mentioned could be some resistance.

AMZN as well also hasn't yet gotten through that 2900 level I've mentioned.

What Powell says at 2:30 will trump any TA metrics (for good or bad).

 

[rutgersguy1]

What Powell says at 2:30 will trump any TA metrics (for good or bad).

TA, charting, candlesticks are a good road map in general but I think especially when things are going down.

 

[rutgersguy1]

I didn't realize ATT hasn't decided if it will spinoff or split off Warner.

Depending on which they choose you could get shares in both companies or just shares in one of them.

Still not a fan of this CEO, even though I think ATT might not be bad if it dropped more. I think @RUAldo has it.

 

[RUDead]

Kill two birds with one stone!

The TARK is coming. 2X ARKK ETF

The AXS 2X Innovation exchange-traded fund (ticker TARK) will target 200% of the performance of the ARK Investment Management’s main fund, according to a Tuesday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

It will be a minimum 75 days before the product from Investment Managers Series Trust can launch. But the timing is audacious: ARKK is down 55% from a peak after tumbling 25% in 2022 alone.

Cathie Wood’s ARKK Is Getting a Leveraged Copycat in Rebound Bet

(Bloomberg) -- A new fund is on the way with a mission to deliver twice the return of the famous ARK Innovation ETF -- even as Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy stages an epic meltdown in the U.S. tech wreck. Most Read from BloombergStock Rebound Fails and Futures Plunge on Earnings: Markets...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

Kill two birds with one stone!

The TARK is coming. 2X ARKK ETF

The AXS 2X Innovation exchange-traded fund (ticker TARK) will target 200% of the performance of the ARK Investment Management’s main fund, according to a Tuesday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

It will be a minimum 75 days before the product from Investment Managers Series Trust can launch. But the timing is audacious: ARKK is down 55% from a peak after tumbling 25% in 2022 alone.

Cathie Wood’s ARKK Is Getting a Leveraged Copycat in Rebound Bet

(Bloomberg) -- A new fund is on the way with a mission to deliver twice the return of the famous ARK Innovation ETF -- even as Cathie Wood’s flagship strategy stages an epic meltdown in the U.S. tech wreck. Most Read from BloombergStock Rebound Fails and Futures Plunge on Earnings: Markets...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[RUAldo]

I didn't realize ATT hasn't decided if it will spinoff or split off Warner.

Depending on which they choose you could get shares in both companies or just shares in one of them.

Still not a fan of this CEO, even though I think ATT might not be bad if it dropped more. I think @RUAldo has it.

Every time the AT&T CEO talks the stock goes down. Fortunately, it’s been a great find for me because I got in at the bottom. But, I have no clue where this guy is headed with the split v. spin. His comments were very confusing. No idea why he would even mention potential “value leakage” since nobody, including him, knows what that could mean until we approach the deal close.

 

[RU-05]

While I like MSFT, I said it “can” hit $400 by EOY. I don’t think that’s a slam-dunk by any means because, as you said, it would require a huge run-up and require great execution and growth in what will like be a difficult rate environment.

My point was more, $400 eoy for MSFT would be fantastic return from here.

Given we are past the sugar high market, I'd think a 20% return would be great.

 

[RU-05]

JPM's Debravco Lakos noted that the Russel2K is at 20 year lows in terms of P/E.

Also said he specifically liked high growth beta here.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Every time the AT&T CEO talks the stock goes down. Fortunately, it’s been a great find for me because I got in at the bottom. But, I have no clue where this guy is headed with the split v. spin. His comments were very confusing. No idea why he would even mention potential “value leakage” since nobody, including him, knows what that could mean until we approach the deal close.

I've mentioned I'm not a fan of the guy cause he's the lieutenant of the former CEO who put all those past deals together. Was he just going along to get along while not liking them or was he endorsing them full heartedly? Who knows. But not figuring out which way to go.... spin or split seems kind of indecisive to me.

The stock itself was bound for retracement and pullback. I mentioned 27 is where the 200DMA is and there is firm resistance there too. It would have likely taken some really good news to bust through that convincingly. I was surprised it went through the 50DMA as easily as it did. So taking a break, retracing and consolidating isn't bad thing necessarily. I think it could find some support around 24 and it's already around 24.50 currently.

 

[RU-05]

Every time the AT&T CEO talks the stock goes down. Fortunately, it’s been a great find for me because I got in at the bottom. But, I have no clue where this guy is headed with the split v. spin. His comments were very confusing. No idea why he would even mention potential “value leakage” since nobody, including him, knows what that could mean until we approach the deal close.

Ya, this is twice now in about 6 months that he has killed a rally just as it was getting going.

Hopefully this one is just a short term down turn. The last one knocked 30% off before it found a bottom.

 

[rutgersguy1]

Ya, this is twice now in about 6 months that he has killed a rally just as it was getting going.

Hopefully this one is just a short term down turn. The last one knocked 30% off before it found a bottom.

Well VZ is down too so I wouldn't consider specifically related to his interview but he didn't help lol.

 

[RU-05]

Well VZ is down too so I wouldn't consider specifically related to his interview but he didn't help lol.

T down 7% compared to 3% for VZ. Heck he might be dragging VZ down with him.

VZ like T selling well below it's pre covid p/e multiple.

 

[RutgersNo1]

benchmark rate unchanged

 

[RU-05]

VZ got a quick bump as I was typing.

Not it's first of the day though, see if this one sticks. The others didn't.

 

[T2Kplus20]

JPM's Debravco Lakos noted that the Russel2K is at 20 year lows in terms of P/E.

Also said he specifically liked high growth beta here.

Proshares has a leveraged etf for the R2K as well! :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

To summarize:

1. Powell/Fed sticking to their plan
2. Stupid market freaked out for no reason

 

[RU-05]

Thoughts on AMZN?

Broke below it's 18 month range.

Next support level looks like $2500? P/E below it's precovid levels, but above what it had been for most of 2021. Missed earnings big last qtr, though we Know AMZN tends to sacrifice earnings for growth. Eps estimates for the 4th qtr are for the lowest eps since 2019. So low expectations on that front. Obviously now in a post Bezo's era.