I was thinking based on the last weather thread and you asking that question here it looked to be a pretty funny troll of the snow cheerleaders.
No worries either way - carry on. ; )
OT: What’s the chance it’s another snowless winter
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I was thinking based on the last weather thread and you asking that question here it looked to be a pretty funny troll of the snow cheerleaders.
No worries either way - carry on. ; )
Got 2" on Saturday and more is likely on the way Tuesday for everyone (planning on starting a thread on that later today if the models/NWS continue to be bullish on this), plus with a pattern change to colder than normal starting on Saturday, chances for snow will increase - but aren't guaranteed.
Also, despite global warming, we had the 2nd snowiest 20-year period in our recorded history (since about 1870 or so) in the Philly-NJ-NYC region from 2000-2020, as warmer than normal winters can still have snowier than normal outcomes if the patterns and timing are right. The last 23 years of snowfall are in the table below for New Brunswick, clearly showing well above normal snowfall from 2000-2020, including 2009-2010, the snowiest winter in NB's history. People have short memories, I guess - we just had a well above normal winter in 2020-2021 including a monster storm (19") on 1/31-2/1.
But make no mistake, the planet is warming, as 2023 was just reported to be the warmest year since 1850 by a large margin, being 2.7F over the 1850-1890 pre-industrial temperature average - and 2023 also has seen the warmest sea surface temperatures in recorded history, plus arctic sea ice has been near record lows all year.
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954
Also, despite global warming, we had the 2nd snowiest 20-year period in our recorded history (since about 1870 or so) in the Philly-NJ-NYC region from 2000-2020, as warmer than normal winters can still have snowier than normal outcomes if the patterns and timing are right. The last 23 years of snowfall are in the table below for New Brunswick, clearly showing well above normal snowfall from 2000-2020, including 2009-2010, the snowiest winter in NB's history. People have short memories, I guess - we just had a well above normal winter in 2020-2021 including a monster storm (19") on 1/31-2/1.
But make no mistake, the planet is warming, as 2023 was just reported to be the warmest year since 1850 by a large margin, being 2.7F over the 1850-1890 pre-industrial temperature average - and 2023 also has seen the warmest sea surface temperatures in recorded history, plus arctic sea ice has been near record lows all year.
https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954
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My favorite snowstorm, probably. 28" in Metuchen and a NJ storm high 33" in Edison and 32" in Elizabeth, but only 20.2" in Central Park with everyone else in NYC reporting 25" or more, which is why so many people think the folks in Central Park undermeasure the snow.I remember the Jan 7, 1996 storm when NYC was basically shut down with 18-24" of snow. People were cross country skiing on the North/South Avenues.
Blizzard of 1996 in New York City
New York City was entrapped in a barrage of snow in the early days of January 1996. The five boroughs shouldered more than 18 inches of snow, raging winds and storm surges that started on Jan. 7, 1…www.nydailynews.com
Favorite thing I did was clear our lower roof over our family room (a low pitch roof prone to ice dams/leading in large snowfalls) which created a 5-6 foot pile of snow just below the roof (which is only about 10 feet up at its end) - and then I took our 2 year old son up on the roof with me and repeatedly jumped into that snow pile. He loved that so much and it became a routine thing any time we had over a foot of snow, like 2000, 2003 (twice), 2005 and 2006 - by then he was 12 and would do this on his own after helping me shovel.
Technically, we're still in an Ice Age, although obviously in an interglacial period and with the way we're going we might actually exit that Ice Age...
https://www.greenmatters.com/weather-and-global-warming/will-there-be-another-ice-age
See my post. While last year sucked and the previous year was below normal, 2 winters ago was great, featuring a huge storm (18" for most) and was well above normal and 2000-2020 was the 2nd snowiest period in recorded history (since about 1870) in NYC, NB and many other locations in our area, despite warmer than normal winters. The question is whether we just kind of got a bit lucky with winter patterns in many years and got extra snow despite the warmth, as these winter patterns can shift (that's why we got mostly lousy winters in the 70s and 80s) and if we did and the planet continues to warm, might we now be into a period of very low snowfall, given the combo of warmth and bad winter snow patterns. Check back in 10 years, lol.
By the way, the GFS at 12Z now looks as snowy as the Euro has been for several model cycles and the CMC has a decent snowstorm for Tuesday from 95 and NW, with less towards the coast. If the Euro looks good at 12Z, I'll start a new storm thread as the NWS has been pretty bullish on snow for Tuesday.
28" in Metuchen- why of course!
But 33" in Edison and 32" in Elizabeth-- admit it, you had snow envy and cried snowflakes! 😜 😭
the 12z Euro completely losing the storm is exactly why 5-6 day threads really arent needed....lets get the Fri night/Saturday system out of the way to see how things stand
Ya just can't help yourself. Never change.
Oh, and greenmatters.com? I can see with reliable sites like that why you'd turn up your nose on accuweather.
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Yes, but the Euro ensembles still look pretty good and the 12Z GFS, UK and CMC all show a snowstorm with varying details (GFS all snow, UK snow along and NW of 95/mix to the coast, and CMC snow NW of 95 with mix along 95 and rain for the coast). Also, the 18Z GFS is a major snowstorm (6-12") for most of our area and the NWS at 4 pm is largely discounting the Euro given their discussion, below, which is very bullish on snow (and they're not taking the mix/rain scenarios very seriously). We'll see of course.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Looking towards the beginning of the week guidance is showing a
deep 250mb trough swinging through the central US. This sends a
strong 250mb jet over the region and guidance has shown the
potential for some weak cyclogensis to our south. The consensus
amongst guidance is that a low pressure system will form to our
south and stays to the south as it moves towards the northeast.
This keeps the forecast area entirely in the cold sector of the
system and in the right rear quad of the 250mb jet. That should
lead to broad synoptic lift and with moisture in place we may
see accumulating snow across the region. Based on the 06z
ensembles that went into the 13z NBM, the nearly the entire
forecast area has 50% chance or higher of exceeding 1" of snow
and given the area would be in the cold sector there would be no
immediate rainfall to melt the snow. Going a little bit higher
to the 4" threshold, probabilities of snowfall exceeding that
mark are around 20-30%. At this point limiting factors would be
the speed and location of the system rather than thermal
profiles. Will continue to monitor as the system gets closer as
there are bound to be numerous changes in track and intensity
given this storm is currently in the day 5 period.
I doubt I will at this point, so either get used to it or put me on ignore, lol.
Not really - at the time, I was very skeptical of the Edison number, since I'm extraordinarily meticulous with my snowfall measurements and given the blowing/drifting snow, it was nearly impossible to find a relatively level area for good measurements in any yard - so I took my last few measurements at the football field in town, which is about as good of level area as one could find given it's a huge open field where blowing drifting is minimized when one is more than about 30 yards from the edge (so I trudged out 40 yards away from the edge to get my measurements). Without doing that, I could see someone easily overestimate the snow if not really careful.
I sometimes get some grief from folks thinking I inflate numbers when it's often the opposite. Same thing happened in the Jan-2016 storm where I had a final number of 22" and a spotter in Metuchen recorded 27" and I know there's no way that one was correct (I did the same thing going to the field since measurements were just all over the map in our yard and it's not a small yard). When snow is marginal, though and there's a changeover I do tend to be higher than most since I'm careful to get a measurement right when the changeover occurs and not 30 min later when rain or sleet would have compressed the snow.
Valid criticisms and contra-forecasting isn't trolling. ; )
The greenmatters link was on purpose, just for you to see if you'd whine about it. Ya just can't help yourself. Never change.
I'll take it under advisement. Here you go, just for you. Any other advice you want to give me?
Ya gotta admire the guy's moxie. Most folks would have been embarrassed after posting their pornhub kinks to the web site. Not that guy. LOL
I'll take it under advisement. Here you go, just for you. Any other advice you want to give me?
Again proving my point
You have been told time and time again by the mets on americanwx to disregard snow maps but yet here you are
Considering about 90% of men watch porn at least occasionally on the internet and the other 10% are liars, I don't really give a crap about making a silly mistake that anyone could make. But I'm sure that won't stop you and a few others from continuing to beat that dead horse. Also, one benefit of posting about the weather (or being a scientist) is that one gets used to being wrong or making mistakes - it happens, move on.
If he stops that would reduce the number of posts he can make and thread he can start. That's not going to happen.
LOL! He has been wrong so often over the past few years, I guess being wrong again doesn't matter? And yes, posting his porn for all to see was hysterical beyond words.
By the way, I had my first De Lorenzo's work lunch of the new year. Best pizza in NJ (and probably most other places).
I have never been told time and time again by mets to not post snow maps - everyone posts snow maps over there. I have had arguments with a couple about whether to post the 10:1 maps or not, but people disagree sometimes. I have quite good relationships with Walt Drag, DonS and Mike Gorse among other pros over there and many others elsewhere. Unlike you, who gets banned regularly for trolling threads by downplaying any snowfall predictions, just like you do here. I've never been banned or even warned about anything. Maybe you should look in the mirror.
You also probably didn't even notice that that graphic is from 3 years ago - figured you'd go for faux outrage...
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I forgot about that one in 1996. That was A LOT of snow!I remember the Jan 7, 1996 storm when NYC was basically shut down with 18-24" of snow. People were cross country skiing on the North/South Avenues.
Blizzard of 1996 in New York City
New York City was entrapped in a barrage of snow in the early days of January 1996. The five boroughs shouldered more than 18 inches of snow, raging winds and storm surges that started on Jan. 7, 1…
You care far more about him starting the thread than I do. Par for the course for an emotional child.
Once in awhile you make a worthwhile post. De Lorenzo's is awesome. Top 5 in NJ for me...
Always has to be the Robbinsville one! There are a few fake DeLo's floating around (other family members, but not the original).
There are few things on this board better than a good weather argument between numbers and Bac. I 100 percent love it.
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