OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

[FastMJ]

But to bring this back to topic, we need legal immigrants if the housing boom does continue. When was the last time you saw a lawn crew, landscaping crew or roofing crew that did not contain people who barely spoke English? They are happy to be here, show up for work, work hard and make a better life for themselves. Can't see how anyone would not want that and continue to grow the economy.

I agree with you 100%.

The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007, which would have given a path to citizenship to the large majority of illegal entrants in the country, significantly increased legal immigration and increased enforcement. The act, which had bipartisan support in the Senate, was widely unpopular with the American public. As the result of unprecedented public pressure, the bill failed to pass a cloture vote, essentially killing it.

In 2013, a bipartisan group of eight senators known as the “Gang of Eight” drafted a major piece of amnesty legislation entitled the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013 which would have provided a path to citizenship for the approximately 11 million illegal aliens in the country, including the DACA recipients. The bill sought to drastically increase the size of visa programs, including lifting the high-skilled H-1B visa cap to from 65,000 to as high as 180,000 per year, depending upon demand, and creating a new W-visa for an additional 200,000 low-skilled workers. In exchange, the bill promised increased border security and mandatory E-Verify for all employers. Despite passing the Senate 68-32, the bill saw significant grassroots resistance, was not considered by the House, and died in the 113th Congress.

Source:

Historical Overview of Immigration Policy

Immigration has played an important role in American history, and the United States continues to have the most open immigration policy in the world.

cis.org

 

[e5fdny]

Hopefully the realtors who made a lot of money (particularly the newer ones) scrupulously saved money and did not spend it like drunken sailors (is this phrase allowed in today's world?) because it is unlikely sales activity will be like it has been the last 2 years. You are absolutely right about boots on the ground. "Data" and trends can be hyperlocal. @e5fdny knows that the Lake Como (South Belmar) market does not reflect or predict the Spring Lake market, and the Manasquan market does not reflect or predict the Sea Girt market. The ocean front market in Sea Girt does not predict or the Sea Girt "Westies" (west of Route 71) market. Same for New Brunswick vs. North Brunswick or Piscataway. Different demographics, income levels and uses/expectations for real estate.

I went by the property @Knight Shift mentioned earlier in the thread the other day in Lake Como and I just can’t see even with new construction it’s worth the almost $2M asking.

Nothing in the neighborhood looks or seems to be close to be worth that.

But this is not my expertise and I could be way off.

 

[Knight Shift]

I agree with you 100%.

The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007, which would have given a path to citizenship to the large majority of illegal entrants in the country, significantly increased legal immigration and increased enforcement. The act, which had bipartisan support in the Senate, was widely unpopular with the American public. As the result of unprecedented public pressure, the bill failed to pass a cloture vote, essentially killing it.

In 2013, a bipartisan group of eight senators known as the “Gang of Eight” drafted a major piece of amnesty legislation entitled the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013 which would have provided a path to citizenship for the approximately 11 million illegal aliens in the country, including the DACA recipients. The bill sought to drastically increase the size of visa programs, including lifting the high-skilled H-1B visa cap to from 65,000 to as high as 180,000 per year, depending upon demand, and creating a new W-visa for an additional 200,000 low-skilled workers. In exchange, the bill promised increased border security and mandatory E-Verify for all employers. Despite passing the Senate 68-32, the bill saw significant grassroots resistance, was not considered by the House, and died in the 113th Congress.

Source:

Historical Overview of Immigration Policy

Immigration has played an important role in American history, and the United States continues to have the most open immigration policy in the world.

cis.org

Good stuff, thanks. Two people on a message board who seemingly were on opposite sides come to a resolution in 3 posts. Maybe our politicians should communicate on message boards and things would get done. We need this to get done to address multiple issues.

 

[fg7321]

This is a lie. Simply jaw boning that youre gonna empower oil companies would lower prices. Theyve stopped investing in cap ex and expansion because biden is telling them he wants to put them out of bizz. That + saudis hate biden. In 2018 trump told the saudis pump or were withdrawing military aid. sure as shit what did they do? Pumped.

if you ran a business and the regulatory agency that oversaw it said we want to shut you down in 5 years, you gonna expand operates or hold onto your profits. You should read this https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/10-in-2022

LOL wrong again stick to basketball on second thought forget that as well LOL LOL

You do know that Trump forced the Saudis to a massive cut in Oil production???

Special Report: Trump told Saudi: Cut oil supply or lose U.S. military support - sources

By Timothy Gardner, Steve Holland, Dmitry Zhdannikov and Rania El Gamal

www.reuters.com

Biden is hated by Oil companies because he is steering the country away from a carbon economy. Like it or not the planet is on fire literally . It's been over 100 degrees for more than 90 days in India and Pakistan.

In the US Midwest record heat along with power outages due to a massive storm mean people will die in their homes.

BTW Texas is getting 40 % of their energy from renewables over the last few weeks.

 

[Wolv RU]

This thread is already aging like a ice cream cone on a summer sidewalk.

It took you a week to back pedal from price appreciation will slow to “5% decline if rates hit 7%”. And yes, rates are getting close to 6% and the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by 100 bps during the next two meetings.

I would say that we’ve already sustained a 5%-10% decline in 3 months. Your average $800K house in March was selling for $850k in 2 weeks. That house is now probably going to sell for $775k in a month if you’re lucky.

A month from now your stressed out realtor would look at that same house as a new listing and encourage you to list it for $750K.

It is worth noting that comparing numerical prices at different times is not all that useful as it does not consider the time value of money. A house that goes from 800k to 850k in one year is actually a loss if inflation is at the number it is at right now. If real number prices even drop slightly in this environment that is actually a substantial loss, not to mention RE taxes paid and property transfer taxes that it would take to actually sell such property.

 

[Wolv RU]

We have been in a money printing, everything bubble for 20 years and it is now starting to correct. I don't see how RE avoids being caught up in that correction.

Also, there is no way inflation, higher mortgage rates and a shaky economy doesn't make potential buyers pull back.

RE is already in that correction. The residential RE market is vastly different here on June 16 than it was on May 16 or April 16. This is likely really only the beginning of the change.

 

[patk89]

Legal immigration, the last couple of years we have been more restrictive in our immigration laws to prevent legal immigration.

2005 1,122,257
2006 1,266,129
2007 1,052,415
2008 1,107,126
2009 1,130,818
2010 1,042,625
2011 1,062,040
2012 1,031,631
2013 990,553
2014 1,016,518
2015 1,051,031
2016 1,183,505
2017 1,127,167
2018 1,096,611
2019 1,031,765
2020 707 ,362

Misleading number and important not to draw the wrong conclusions. Covid caused the sharp decline in 2020.

 

[mdk01]

Oil prices are not due to any Biden Policy at this point. The "pipline" was not finsihed and would not help even if it was open.

If it was finished and open Biden would not have to go hat in hand to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia and plead for increased production. But I guess Canada's lack of democracy and human rights policy precludes that[/sarcasm]

 

[Section124]

I define a real estate bubble when my town does a surprise reassessment earlier this year. Now they have overinflated valuations to raise property taxes. They better adjust that mill rate. Somehow they always seem to hit the top of the market.

 

[patk89]

This whole politicization of oil and gas with Biden is basically just a waste of time. The energy producers don't want to invest huge capital with this spike in prices because they remember negative prices in March 2020 and would rather just milk the gravy train of higher prices while they last. I would be in favor of the US government putting a floor of $70 a barrel for domestic production where we would be a buyer of last resort and put the extra barrels into the strategic petroleum reserves as and when needed. This would effectively be a free Put option for the oil drillers and would hasten the pace of new capacity investments.

The Biden Admin has greatly increased the risks associated with investing in the exploration and development of new oil and gas resources while adding regulatory burdens (increases costs). Ask any energy executive. I also agree that it is fresh in their minds the losses they took from ramping up fracking production too quickly. Add in ESG pressure making capital providers step back from the industry, it is perfectly logical to hold production steady, reduce leverage, increase dividends to investors, and wait for greater clarity.

 

[ashokan]

Get a different news source and dig deeper. It's more complicated than that. On every single issue, one side points to the other, and then they each dig in deeper and further away from each other. The said reality is the majority of voters would be happy to meet somewhere in the middle and make compromises, but the people that get elected don't let that happen.

But to bring this back to topic, we need legal immigrants if the housing boom does continue. When was the last time you saw a lawn crew, landscaping crew or roofing crew that did not contain people who barely spoke English? They are happy to be here, show up for work, work hard and make a better life for themselves. Can't see how anyone would not want that and continue to grow the economy.

The "middle" is actually bipartisan in the desire to cease all immigration - that even includes immigrants already in US. People who don't see/feel the impact of immigration are unaware of the realities.

The uniparty wants invasions (and that's what they've been for awhile - around 6 million this year) because donkeys want votes (Pat Cadell said years ago that the massive Reagan upsets left Blues feeling betrayed and abandoned - and desiring new voter base. 2016 re-opened that wound hence the invasion) and elephants want cheap labor with offloaded gov benefits. There is no real "both sides" as far as parties go. The voters of the parties are against them in a bipartisan alliance - been like that for years (only one candidate got that)

Truth be told, black citizens are often hostile to immigrants because they take over their areas and drive-up rents and shrink affordable housing. They also overwhelm services. Every baby born to an illegal (and often legal) is "paid for" by emergency medicaid. Then the baby is a US citizen and the doors to all the benefits open.. The parents often cant read Spanish, and the young kids pull schools down because of the language mess. The illegals have their own banking system, and have top send billions back to their countries to fund mass migration via cartels)

In sanctuary type places, officials coach lying on applications. For many amigos making $20 an hour landscaping there is an amiga at home with kids piling-up bills, and with a mailbox full of crazy checks to pay them. Obamacare, SNAP, WIC, SS - they get all the goodies despite the myth that cant.

South and Central American fear certain youths who give them serious beatings. Politically, many of them are not ready to jump into the demographic and political bins that have been pre-ordained for them. Socially they old fashioned. They have their babies and they have them young. Older Americans have fire for certain issues that the immigrant young do not

The "11 million" illegals is a farcical number from 2004. MSM and Mayra Flores election is a big deal. Most Americans seem oblivious to the fact that people left their homes to get away from gangs, violence, drugs, bad economy etc. They are very unhappy to be getting buried under what they left. They are too sick of extra workers that now undercut them ("too many guys here now" they will say).

Under last admin immigrant workers were getting more and more offers to get more pay working for someone else. That really opened their eyes and thats a reason they want that back. In intentional crippling of economy and bizarre social force feed have really moved millions of people in new direction. People that understand that know the mass dumping of more and more foreigners on top of existing foreigners who work (and not all do) is a big problem

 

[mdk01]

The Biden Admin has greatly increased the risks associated with investing in the exploration and development of new oil and gas resources while adding regulatory burdens (increases costs). Ask any energy executive. I also agree that it is fresh in their minds the losses they took from ramping up fracking production too quickly. Add in ESG pressure making capital providers step back from the industry, it is perfectly logical to hold production steady, reduce leverage, increase dividends to investors, and wait for greater clarity.

Make big capital investments that have a 10 year payback that we will require you to shut down in 5 years. Makes sense to me [/sarcasm].

 

[FastMJ]

The "11 million" illegals is a farcical number from 2004. MSM and Mayra Flores election is a big deal. Most Americans seem oblivious to the fact that people left their homes to get away from gangs, violence, drugs, bad economy etc. They are very unhappy to be getting buried under what they left. They are too sick of extra workers that now undercut them ("too many guys here now" they will say).

Under last admin immigrant workers were getting more and more offers to get more pay working for someone else. That really opened their eyes and thats a reason they want that back. In intentional crippling of economy and bizarre social force feed have really moved millions of people in new direction. People that understand that know the mass dumping of more and more foreigners on top of existing foreigners who work (and not all do) is a big problem

LOL
Who are you, Lou Dobbs?

 

[RUBlackout7]

Has to be said in this thread, is there a more worthless and overpaid profession than being a realtor?

I can’t believe they haven’t gone the way of the yellow cab yet.

 

[FastMJ]

Has to be said in this thread, is there a more worthless and overpaid profession than being a realtor?

I can’t believe they haven’t gone the way of the yellow cab yet.

That's easy. Lawyers, lobbyists and Congress are more worthless and overpaid.

 

[ashokan]

LOL
Who are you, Lou Dobbs?

Just a guy who has lived with the Ecuadoran and Guatemalan immies for 25 years.
My NY HS is now 75% Hispanic - mostly South American (even Puerto Ricans are gone)
I am the flava where I lived
When you see one of the MSM sanctioned protests taking place look for the immigrants
They aren't there as a rule
Many flights come into local airport at night carrying new immigrants who NY wants to let vote.
They might have made a big mistake there
Lord does indeed work in mysterious ways

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Has to be said in this thread, is there a more worthless and overpaid profession than being a realtor?

I can’t believe they haven’t gone the way of the yellow cab yet.

Haha yes plenty.

financial advisors is one we can start with.

“Hey hand me your money and ill charge a fee for doing less than you couldve done yourself with an index fund”.

lets be honest, most peoples jobs arent nearly as important as their titles would lead you or them to believe. Plumbers, electricians, carpenters and masons are far more valuable than any white color job available in this country.

what do you do for a living?

 

[RUBlackout7]

Haha yes plenty.

financial advisors is one we can start with.

“Hey hand me your money and ill charge a fee for doing less than you couldve done yourself with an index fund”.

lets be honest, most peoples jobs arent nearly as important as their titles would lead you or them to believe. Plumbers, electricians, carpenters and masons are far more valuable than any white color job available in this country.

what do you do for a living?

I mean at least financial advisors provide advice on complex topics and investments, and actually manage things for you.

Realtors literally just have the keys to the front door and that’s about it. They add zero value, especially on the buy side.

 

[fg7321]

If it was finished and open Biden would not have to go hat in hand to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia and plead for increased production. But I guess Canada's lack of democracy and human rights policy precludes that[/sarcasm]

The pipeline was to get dirty tar sand oil from Canada to the gulf coast for export. We are the worlds largest exporter of Oil and gas at record levels right now. The reason why we cant lower prices is Oil Companies are not drilling and refining Oil into gas. They are content with making record profits while the American public get the shaft.

We are in a proxy war with Russia and Oil companies are basically wartime profiteers at this point.

They are going to get hit with Defense Production Act.

 

[Scarlet_Monster]

Nationwide number is about 18%, large majority of which are mom and pop landlords. Institutional/wall street less than 2% of that 18%. Very very small amount and not much higher than usual on the wall street side

Charlotte was nearly 30%, and most of the houses were being snatched up by Open Door. Very few normal people buying houses as rental properties.

 

[tom1944]

We need a lotttt more blue collar immigration. Legally. Doing so illegally lines the pockets of the cartels, and leaves tons of women and children to be raped and killed on that journey

They would be happy to come legally

If we let them

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

I mean at least financial advisors provide advice on complex topics and investments, and actually manage things for you.

Realtors literally just have the keys to the front door and that’s about it. They add zero value, especially on the buy side.

Haha what advice do they give that google couldnt in under 1 minute? What do you do for a living?

id also say unequivocally realtors have more value on buy side than sell side. Good realtors worth are worth it, bad arent. But that rings true for any job.

but again, whats your valuable job?

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Charlotte was nearly 30%, and most of the houses were being snatched up by Open Door. Very few normal people buying houses as rental properties.

Not true. Even in markets with elevated investor purchases you just said 30%. Which means 70% is normal people there. Im just sharing the facts on nationwide average.

 

[RUBlackout7]

Haha what advice do they give that google couldnt in under 1 minute? What do you do for a living?

id also say unequivocally realtors have more value on buy side than sell side. Good realtors worth are worth it, bad arent. But that rings true for any job.

but again, whats your valuable job?

Good luck googling how you should invest your life and which products to use in under a minute. And then doing that every day to stay ahead of the curve.

Buy side realtors are basically taxi drivers with keys to the front door. That’s it. There’s a reason strippers go from the pole to realtor life.

I build things.

 

[tom1944]

Good luck googling how you should invest your life and which products to use in under a minute. And then doing that every day to stay ahead of the curve.

Buy side realtors are basically taxi drivers with keys to the front door. That’s it. There’s a reason strippers go from the pole to realtor life.

I build things.

If you didn’t have a realtor how would you know what a bathroom is

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Good luck googling how you should invest your life and which products to use in under a minute. And then doing that every day to stay ahead of the curve.

Buy side realtors are basically taxi drivers with keys to the front door. That’s it. There’s a reason strippers go from the pole to realtor life.

I build things.

Lol, what so what do you do for a living?

the beauty is an index fund will outperform a financial advisor and then you wont have to check every day :) https://www.lowellsun.com/2022/03/24/index-funds-vs-actively-managed-funds-2/amp/

you remind me of the attorneys who are always angry that at a closing the realtor makes 10X the attorneys fee. One went to school for 3 weeks and $300, the other went to school for 3 years and $300K. One has a better ROI

 

[theRU]

Love that we don't have attorney review in CA the way you do in NJ. Never really understood why it's so different

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Love that we don't have attorney review in CA the way you do in NJ. Never really understood why it's so different

Because nj bar association took nj association of realtors to court for a money grab. Said realtors cant draw contracts without a consumer having a 3 bizz day window to consult an attorney. Simply a money grab by the liars, lawyers*

 

[Morrischiano]

More data of the bubble deflating in real estate; house list price reductions hit new highs.

Housing Market Update: Share of Homes with Price Drops Reaches New High as Mortgage Rates Top 2008 Levels

Rising mortgage rates and the Fed’s actions to combat inflation are likely to further stretch homebuyer budgets and encourage more homeowners to stay put.

www.redfin.com

 

[Knight Shift]

Rents are going down in Minneapolis. The place to be?

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Rents are going down in Minneapolis. The place to be?

View embedded media

The easiest way to solve upward price movement of literally anything is to increase supply. NIMBYism, red tape and restrictive zoning drives prices up in real estate along with foolish measures like rent control

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

More data of the bubble deflating in real estate; house list price reductions hit new highs.

Housing Market Update: Share of Homes with Price Drops Reaches New High as Mortgage Rates Top 2008 Levels

Rising mortgage rates and the Fed’s actions to combat inflation are likely to further stretch homebuyer budgets and encourage more homeowners to stay put.

www.redfin.com

This is fake news. If you want real news look to altos research. Price reductions are on the rise but still well below historic norms. Normal markets see 1/3 of homes having price reductions, we are at 25% right now. Personally i am of the belief we get to a market where 40% of homes have price reductions as sellers are gonna think they have 50+ offer power for a few months too long before they realize that aint the case any more.
As an aside Redfin gonna go under within 18 months imo. Highly highly capitalized business but has a poor business model that is not sustainable. The amount of money redfin offered me was dumb lol didnt take it because i run 3 businesses but it did make me pause for second haha. They just laid off 8% of their employees.

another aside, what do you define as bubble? For most it would be prices going back to the start of the run up (2012), thatll never happen. I define bubble here as prices just going back to 2020 which would mean 30% drop in prices, also no chance imo

 

[RUBlackout]

This thread getting to 10 pages should automatically deem this is a bubble

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

This thread getting to 10 pages should automatically deem this is a bubble

Personally ive found it to be a good discussion, one of the better on the board.

ill ask you this.
1) What do you define on a bubble?
2) How much (% wise) would prices have to fall on average nationwide for you to call it a bubble
3) How confident are you in answer #2 in regards to how much money youd be willing to bet on it?

 

[RUBlackout]

Personally ive found it to be a good discussion, one of the better on the board.

ill ask you this.
1) What do you define on a bubble?
2) How much (% wise) would prices have to fall on average nationwide for you to call it a bubble
3) How confident are you in answer #2 in regards to how much money youd be willing to bet on it?

sarcasm

 

[Knight Shift]

Stock market's fall has wiped out $3 trillion in retirement savings this year

With Americans' nest eggs mostly held in 401(k)s and IRAs, the swoon could force many to delay their retirement.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[RUskoolie]

A ton of it. The MAGA team don’t want more immigration they’re afraid of the great replacement

I have yet to meet anyone who does not want LEGAL immigration. It's ILLEGAL that people on the right and majority of hispanic people I speak with, hate.

Yeah the idiots in Congress are not too bright when it comes to these issues. I just don't think that is the primary reason for the high prices nor for the lack of capex investments. Oil companies can expand production as quickly as they want to if they are willing to risk the next oil crash. They aren't going out of business when 95% of people are still driving SUVs and flying.

Wrong. It's not like turning on your kitchen faucet. It takes years of planning to drill from start to finish. If your admin campaigns about getting rid of oil and then day 1 reverse a very pro-oil policy, what did you think would happen?

LOL wrong again stick to basketball on second thought forget that as well LOL LOL

You do know that Trump forced the Saudis to a massive cut in Oil production???

Special Report: Trump told Saudi: Cut oil supply or lose U.S. military support - sources

By Timothy Gardner, Steve Holland, Dmitry Zhdannikov and Rania El Gamal

www.reuters.com

Biden is hated by Oil companies because he is steering the country away from a carbon economy. Like it or not the planet is on fire literally . It's been over 100 degrees for more than 90 days in India and Pakistan.

In the US Midwest record heat along with power outages due to a massive storm mean people will die in their homes.

BTW Texas is getting 40 % of their energy from renewables over the last few weeks.

The earth has warmed and cooled for thousands of years dude. You're being duped.

Good luck googling how you should invest your life and which products to use in under a minute. And then doing that every day to stay ahead of the curve.

Buy side realtors are basically taxi drivers with keys to the front door. That’s it. There’s a reason strippers go from the pole to realtor life.

I build things.

...Toys?...Houses?...Cars?...TPS reports?

 

[rutgersdave]

I have yet to meet anyone who does not want LEGAL immigration. It's ILLEGAL that people on the right and majority of hispanic people I speak with, hate.

Wrong. It's not like turning on your kitchen faucet. It takes years of planning to drill from start to finish. If your admin campaigns about getting rid of oil and then day 1 reverse a very pro-oil policy, what did you think would happen?

The earth has warmed and cooled for thousands of years dude. You're being duped.

...Toys?...Houses?...Cars?...TPS reports?

Trump Cuts Legal Immigrants By Half And He’s Not Done Yet

Donald Trump has reduced legal immigration by an estimated 49%, which will have a significant negative impact on U.S. economic growth.

www.forbes.com

The National Foundation for American Policy projects that the number of legal immigrants will decline by 49% (or 581,845) between FY 2016 and FY 2021 due to Trump administration policies. (From the FY 2016 total of 1,183,505 down to 601,660 in FY 2021.) How did the Trump administration reduce legal immigration by 49% without changing U.S. immigration law? The answer is by using executive and administrative authorities, some of which are being challenged in court.

Below is a review of the impact of administration policies on legal immigration categories since Donald Trump became president.

Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens: The Immediate Relatives of U.S. Citizens category is projected to decline by over 50% between FY 2016 and FY 2021, meaning about 300,000 more spouses, children and parents of U.S. citizens would have been reunited in FY 2021 absent Trump administration policies

Refugees (including the Cuban Adjustment Act):The number of refugees gaining permanent residence (a green card) is expected to decline significantly from FY 2016 to FY 2021.

For FY 2020, the Trump administration established an annual ceiling for refugees 84% lower than the final year of the Obama administration (from 110,000 down to 18,000), and as of July 17, 2020, only 7,848 refugees have arrived in the United States in FY 2020.


Forbes Magazine owned by Steve Forbes, very conservative.

Trump is proposing to limit student visas to two years for citizens of 59 countries

It’s only Trump’s latest attack on foreign students.

www.vox.com

 

[Section124]

Trump Cuts Legal Immigrants By Half And He’s Not Done Yet

Donald Trump has reduced legal immigration by an estimated 49%, which will have a significant negative impact on U.S. economic growth.

www.forbes.com

In

 

[NotInRHouse]

Unemployment is 3.6%.

The same people railing on immigration are the same ones in the diner complaining the service is too slow. We need more people here. Any business from small to big will tell you.