A ton of it. The MAGA team don’t want more immigration they’re afraid of the great replacement
Hopefully the realtors who made a lot of money (particularly the newer ones) scrupulously saved money and did not spend it like drunken sailors (is this phrase allowed in today's world?) because it is unlikely sales activity will be like it has been the last 2 years. You are absolutely right about boots on the ground. "Data" and trends can be hyperlocal. @e5fdny knows that the Lake Como (South Belmar) market does not reflect or predict the Spring Lake market, and the Manasquan market does not reflect or predict the Sea Girt market. The ocean front market in Sea Girt does not predict or the Sea Girt "Westies" (west of Route 71) market. Same for New Brunswick vs. North Brunswick or Piscataway. Different demographics, income levels and uses/expectations for real estate.
Let's not make this political. There are other more complicated issues than that. As always, one extreme pushes the other extreme harder in the opposite direction. I think most reasonable people (including MAGA people) would more than welcome LEGAL immigration versus the unabated and unchecked crap show that is going on at the border for the last 18 months--which incidentally is dangerous, killing immigrants and making money for the cartel smuggling fentanyl across the border.
This thread is already aging like a ice cream cone on a summer sidewalk.
It took you a week to back pedal from price appreciation will slow to “5% decline if rates hit 7%”. And yes, rates are getting close to 6% and the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by 100 bps during the next two meetings.
I would say that we’ve already sustained a 5%-10% decline in 3 months. Your average $800K house in March was selling for $850k in 2 weeks. That house is now probably going to sell for $775k in a month if you’re lucky.
A month from now your stressed out realtor would look at that same house as a new listing and encourage you to list it for $750K.
We have been in a money printing, everything bubble for 20 years and it is now starting to correct. I don't see how RE avoids being caught up in that correction.
Also, there is no way inflation, higher mortgage rates and a shaky economy doesn't make potential buyers pull back.
Also, there is no way inflation, higher mortgage rates and a shaky economy doesn't make potential buyers pull back.
It’s all about degree. Don’t see GFC crash but 10-15% likely. More acronyms for @Knight Shift and company.
It’s gone from “these illegals are taking our jobs” to “mowing my lawn has gone from $60 to $90? Let’s go Brandon!”
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Syndicates beat reit’s fairly significantly return wise and for real estate professionals in particular they get massive tax benefits in syndicates that they do not find in reit’s.
tbh in surprised rates in high tier scenarios touched the 6’s this week. The market always prices ahead where they think rates will go and 6.25 would indicate a 10 year treasury at 4.5%. Economy wont be strong enough to get to 4.5 imo. Keep an eye on europe, things getting shaky there.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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We need a lotttt more blue collar immigration. Legally. Doing so illegally lines the pockets of the cartels, and leaves tons of women and children to be raped and killed on that journey
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
It will and is taking a bite out of demand which is making the market resemble something more normal. Issue is all time high demand + near all time low supply. Why all time high demand? People dont buy because they think its a good deal, they buy because of life. When you need a house, you need a house. 2020-2024 is the most 28-34 year olds ever in US history. Peak household formation age? 28-34
Just proves the illegal argument is valid... Did it swing too quickly and get unhealthy for the economy? Yes. But if you eliminate an endless flow of cheap labor we would have had healthy wage growth fundamentally
We definitely aren’t allowing blue collar immigration into this country. That means unskilled workers. Let the rates go higher!
Legal immigration, the last couple of years we have been more restrictive in our immigration laws to prevent legal immigration.
2005 1,122,257
2006 1,266,129
2007 1,052,415
2008 1,107,126
2009 1,130,818
2010 1,042,625
2011 1,062,040
2012 1,031,631
2013 990,553
2014 1,016,518
2015 1,051,031
2016 1,183,505
2017 1,127,167
2018 1,096,611
2019 1,031,765
2020 707 ,362
Notes: Data refer to persons granted U.S. legal permanent resident status during a given fiscal year regardless of their actual arrival dates. These data represent persons admitted for legal permanent residence during the 12-month fiscal year ending September 30 of the year designated. The total for 1976 includes both the fiscal year and transitional quarter data.
Source: Migration Policy Institute (MPI) tabulation of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics, Yearbook of Immigration Statistics (various years). Available at www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/publications/yearbook.shtm.
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the problem with rates is that the Fed does not control them they only influence them. The MBS security holders are sitting on massive paper losses and new demand for those securities is drying up which means lack of liquidity and higher yields. Volatility in mortgage rates is going to spike way up. One day it will drop a quarter point and the next day drop back down as these markets settle down.
Completely agree.
We‘ve had nearly a decade of close to zero domestic rates. Resetting rates to a more normal range isn’t going to be smooth, and it will create unexpected, and perhaps large, consequences. No easy way out of it.
Add to it a pull back from globalization and it’s deflationary effects plus high energy costs and you might have a doozy of a recession.
When the CPI has been over 5%, the Fed has always had to increase Fed Funds above CPI to arrest inflation. Maybe this time it’s different. Doubt it, though.
You’re out of your element here.
China and Japan started dumping US Treasuries. Less demand = higher yields. It will take a serious yield curve inversion for the 10 yr to not hit 4.5 by year end.
Add to it a pull back from globalization and it’s deflationary effects plus high energy costs and you might have a doozy of a recession.
I read that pulling back from globalization will hurt earnings and slowdown any recovery, maybe recovery does last 8-10 years.
I read that pulling back from globalization will hurt earnings and slowdown any recovery, maybe recovery does last 8-10 years.
The US economy urgently requires the labor force expansion due to slowing in the population (birth rate) and the preferences of most US native born people for other careers. We need all the farm workers, construction crews, home healthcare aides, we can get and then some
Guy says “Let’s not make this political” then goes political.
The scare tactics against illegal immigration have always been a smokescreen for the politicians that fear changing demographics and getting voted out of office by hoards of new voters. I'm all for enforcing immigration laws, but why do you think we haven't reformed legal immigration?
Can you elaborate or provide a link for those tax benefits? What credentials are required? I'd like to get more educated on that aspect. Thanks.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Mbs purchases really didnt start being of any significance until 2010 and decades and decades back historically the 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 175bps over the 10 year treasury. The roll off of mbs should have some effect, but i just ask people to explain this chart then
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Depreciation wipes out the cashflow, so thats tax free and then if youre a full time real estate professional you can use your depreciation losses against your income to wipe that out. Most famously, donald trump along with all real estate investors do this
I don’t think Fed Fund rate has been above 5 since before the last real estate crash. I think we’re at 3 by the year’s last meeting. Given Powell’s comments yesterday about seeing a series of improved inflation reports, I think he pull the foot off the breaks before we get to 5; with an attempt at a soft landing.
It also seems like he understands that he is resigned that muscle cutting is his only option. Unemployment % is his main weapon.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Idk why no one asked him why he doesnt explicitly say biden needs to look in the mirror and stop appeasing his furthest left flank and take API’s recommendations and empower oil companies. Enormous driver of inflation, the biggest is simply oil/gas/energy. Fee hiking rates cant create more oil supply
Well the old joke that has at least an element of truth was the Democrats want them to vote but not work and the Republicans want them to work but not vote.
Your chart is accurate and valid. I'm just saying that we are experiencing a major dislocation in the mortgage financing (i.e., bond) markets and there will be unusual and unpredictable volatility until things calm down and it's hard to say what direction rates will go from one day to the next.
He will never wade into the political topics so it is a waste of time for anyone to ask him to comment on that. He always stays in his lane if you've been watching any of his testimony to Congress.
This whole politicization of oil and gas with Biden is basically just a waste of time. The energy producers don't want to invest huge capital with this spike in prices because they remember negative prices in March 2020 and would rather just milk the gravy train of higher prices while they last. I would be in favor of the US government putting a floor of $70 a barrel for domestic production where we would be a buyer of last resort and put the extra barrels into the strategic petroleum reserves as and when needed. This would effectively be a free Put option for the oil drillers and would hasten the pace of new capacity investments.
Don't disagree - just think it needs to be legal and set quotas for healthy stability
Oil prices are not due to any Biden Policy at this point. The "pipline" was not finsihed and would not help even if it was open.
Oil price increase is due to record Oil & Gas exports from the US and the fact that Oil and Gas companies are intentionally not expanding production and refineries that shut down during the Pandemic that have not come back online.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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They dont wanna invest in expansion and cap ex because the current adminstration has waged war against them and publicly says they wanna end them.
Of course. But we're not seeing any compromises towards that for the last decade that Congress has been dicking around on immigration because of the underlying agendas.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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This is a lie. Simply jaw boning that youre gonna empower oil companies would lower prices. Theyve stopped investing in cap ex and expansion because biden is telling them he wants to put them out of bizz. That + saudis hate biden. In 2018 trump told the saudis pump or were withdrawing military aid. sure as shit what did they do? Pumped.
if you ran a business and the regulatory agency that oversaw it said we want to shut you down in 5 years, you gonna expand operates or hold onto your profits. You should read this https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/10-in-2022
Yeah the idiots in Congress are not too bright when it comes to these issues. I just don't think that is the primary reason for the high prices nor for the lack of capex investments. Oil companies can expand production as quickly as they want to if they are willing to risk the next oil crash. They aren't going out of business when 95% of people are still driving SUVs and flying.
Google says "camper?" Appropriate, because that is where a lot of people will be living soon. When I was last in San Jose in Nov/Dec. 2019, pre-pandemic, there were encampments of campers along access roads adjacent to the Interstate Highway. I'm guessing those encampments have grown and will continue to grow. Same thing out in the National Forest land in Arizona. Campers parked long term and people taking up residence in their campers.
"How much does a GFC camper cost?
The Standard Platform Camper starts at $6,450, which includes the pop-top camper assembly, the aluminum side panels, a mattress, an installation kit specific to your truck, and you can choose the base color"
Nope. Facts are facts. There is no denying the facts that immigrants are dying, fentanyl is crossing the border and cartels are profiting from the traffic. I said I was for LEGAL immigration. We need people to fill jobs. Sorry if those facts offend you. Problem with some people is that if you don't sing the party narrative in perfect harmony, you are MAGA, a Lib, A progressive, etc. I don't play those games.
Let's put MAGA aside then. What stopped immigration reform during the Bush and Obama administrations? All the BS talk about not granting amnesty was just a euphemism for the states where bringing in a bunch of non white immigrants or providing legal pathways to citizenship is not a way to win elections.
Get a different news source and dig deeper. It's more complicated than that. On every single issue, one side points to the other, and then they each dig in deeper and further away from each other. The said reality is the majority of voters would be happy to meet somewhere in the middle and make compromises, but the people that get elected don't let that happen.
But to bring this back to topic, we need legal immigrants if the housing boom does continue. When was the last time you saw a lawn crew, landscaping crew or roofing crew that did not contain people who barely spoke English? They are happy to be here, show up for work, work hard and make a better life for themselves. Can't see how anyone would not want that and continue to grow the economy.
100%. This woman and the rest of the admin are pushing their green agenda 24/7 and do everything they can to stop the flow of oil. She is also a moron.
The current issue is refining capacity. Nobody is going to build a new facility in this environment and it has nothing to do with them being worried about the price of oil going down. They have been dealing with that issue forever.
This increase in the price of oil is policy driven and deliberate.
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