Arizona is one market we will see price drops along with vegas. Inventory climbing crazy high after appreciation was near all time highs past 2 years.
I was doing this in back in 2006 and remember it well - I agree it will be AZ , Vegas and FL again to lead the decline.
Interesting graphic. I'm assuming it would show house values back up around the 2006 peak, now, if the graph was extended from 2018 to 2022 (for most of those cities). Inflation is up about 38%, cumulatively, since the 2006 house value peak and I know our house value is up over 38% since 2006. If we were smart and motivated, we'd downsize now and pocket some profit with the likely coming downturn. But we're maybe moderately smart and certainly not motivated, lol.That was the early 1990's crash. Parent's home- house was not for sale in 1988, and some person randomly knocked on the door and offered my parents $800K for a house on the river. They declined. Four years later in 1992, they decided they had to sell--for less than $360K. Timing is everything.
First place we owned was a townhouse in Middlesex County we bought in 1992 for $98K. Sold it for $90-92K in 1995.
Some historical perspective.
From a 2018 Forbes article:
"In conclusion, a correction of home prices is likely at some point and the next recession could be a trigger like the 1990 recession was to some degree."
What The 1990s Tell Us About The Next Housing Bust
The consensus is that the next time home prices fall, it won’t be like 2007-2012. No one, however, seems to be talking about what the next real estate correction or bust might actually look like. Let's see what we can learn by looking at what happened when real home prices fell in the early 1990s.www.forbes.com
Not many posters agree with Kyle from what I see. The rental market will be strong because people can’t afford the mortgage to buy a house.
Retirees that can still live in their home will stay in their home. I’m a boomers with several siblings and none will leave their home unless they have too due to some disability as they age. The assisted living and nursing homes are also so expensive. I guess there a quite a few families that sign over their homes to the nursing homes, I know a few. We checked out the price for the nursing home after my father rehab and it was $13k a month or $156k a year.
I know somebody who did what you contemplated. House across the street sold, and the realtor knew them, knocked on the door and said their house could be sold quickly for $1.1M. It was sold in a week. They downsized to a house around the corner for $500-550K, and took the money and ran. Not a bad sum of cash to be sitting on when the equities markets are tanking.
No long term care insurance? We bought some when younger when it was cheap, but it will probably be quite worthless if/when we need it.
No, but they wouldn’t want to go unless they have to go. I took care of my father before he passed at 97 and currently assisting my mother at 91.
For a lot of people, this is the best way, emotionally and financially. It can be a lot of work, and in most instances, it is worth it.
Heres a great piece. Ive said for the past 4 months or so, late 70’s is a better comparison than 2000’s. https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/comparing-the-current-housing-market?s=r
Dont compare to mid 2000’s compare to late 70’s. Take a gander at this piece https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/comparing-the-current-housing-market?s=r
+1
Hate to say it but I think we're underestimating the power of layoffs, people are going to be needing to sell. Also I think food cost is going to be a major issue in the future.
The renting market is absolutely ridiculous, and in return the mortgage business.
$839 more per month nationally to own vs rent. These numbers are a couple weeks old though. Its significantly cheaper to rent right now which is why rent growth is rising at all time high numbers
Disturbing trend that individual investors are purchasing large chunks of farmland. Bill Gates is most disturbing.
Also disturbing that investors are purchasing large chunks of housing. 18.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021 was purchased by investors.
apnews.com
Only 2% of housing is owned by PE/institutions/hedge funds. Large majority 90%+ owned by mom and pop landlords.Disturbing trend that individual investors are purchasing large chunks of farmland. Bill Gates is most disturbing.
Also disturbing that investors are purchasing large chunks of housing. 18.4% in the fourth quarter of 2021 was purchased by investors.
Subprime mortgages and deregulation f'd regular people over in the last crash. Now investors and the elite are finding another way to f over regular people.
Bill Gates owns a lot of American farmland, but not the majority
As Elon Musk’s bid to purchase Twitter has grabbed headlines in recent days, some prominent voices have taken to social media to claim that some other significant acquisitions by deep-pocketed individuals and corporations have largely flown under the radar.
But more recent trend of close to 20% 4Q 2021 purchased by corporations. That's the point.
For that price I'll buy a live in nurse. It'd be a helluva lot more fun than a nursing home especially if I could find a young hot one too.
Baghdad Bob moment for @kyk1827Well this is one way to let air out of a balloon;
30-year mortgage rate surges to 6.28%, up from 5.5% just a week ago
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.www.cnbc.com
Lol, good luck making the case that bubbles happen in 2 days. You should read this https://calculatedrisk.substack.com...f5cIUngCDMpB6YPEb53Y4xfCOwC-ZuQN6xc&fs=e&s=cl and watch the vid in op
Just having some fun - people need to lighten up.
My first 2 homes that was a great rateWell this is one way to let air out of a balloon;
30-year mortgage rate surges to 6.28%, up from 5.5% just a week ago
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
My sister in law and a friend are in the high end part of that, one the Hamptons and the other around here.
Markets have priced in rate cuts late 2023. Rates staying even above 5% *should* increase inventory to levels where we have normal rates of appreciation of around 3%/yr and not the current absurd amounts.
You think the higher end will out perform? I have the opposite view. With equity, crypto slaughtering everyone, I feel the low end will continue to have the largest pool of buyers , more people to trade down into it vs the higher end
