LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z models have come in with a wetter, and even colder solution
with regards to the passage of the coastal low on Saturday.
Generally went with
likely-
categorical PoPs, which is inline
with previous forecast and latest model guidance, and also
increased
QPF and snow amounts for the day Saturday. The
heaviest swath of precip is expected from the Delmarva through
southeast New Jersey with a general 1/2" to 2/3"
QPF. Southern
Sussex county, Delaware, however, may pick up between 3/4" and
1"
QPF, but there may be enough mixing to keep snow amounts
relatively down.
Snow develops across the Delmarva and southern New Jersey by
daybreak Saturday, with a quick 1-3" snow. Still some question
as to how much snow will accumulate in northeast Maryland,
given the bulk of precip should be just to the east, so left
them out of the Advisory for now, but it may be added this
afternoon if higher snow accumulations are possible.
Highest snow potential will be across southeast New Jersey,
where 4-6" snow
likely to accumulate through Saturday evening.
Went ahead and issued a Winter Storm
Watch mainly for areas
south of I-195. Possible for mixing along the immediate coast
that would inhibit snow from accumulating along the barrier
island. With lesser snow amounts to the north and west,
including the Philadelphia
Metro area, also issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for those areas.
There is the potential for some
mesoscale banding on Saturday,
but where it sets up remains to be seen. Most
likely for I-95
corridor in NJ, and this could result in a swath of 6-8" of
snow, which is inline with our High End Amount - 10% Chance of
Higher Snowfall
map.
Given that this looks to be a heavier, wetter snow, there is the
possibility for
power outages due to downed
power lines in the
swaths of heavier snow.
Snow tapers off from west to east fairly quickly Saturday
evening, and comes to an end around midnight Saturday night.
