OT: Winter Returns...Very Cold, then Snow to Rain on 12/17, then cold again; mild for XMas?

bac2therac

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For Central Jersey.....GFS cut back yet again.....now just 1-2 inches...nam is similar 1-2 but perhaps more toward Northern Somerset and Morris....less than an inch toward coast with rapid changeover. Trends in the last 18 hours have not been good on the models. This system will be colder than last week and there is more to work with so its not going to be a total bustola like last Sunday. Need to watch Euro and todays later models, I think NWS may slice forecasted totals to 1-3 later tonight if trends continue
 

bac2therac

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models continue the trend of lessening the impact in Central Jersey....1-2 inches with maybe 3 or 4 when you get into northern sections of NJ. Lets see what tonights models bring
 

RU848789

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Interesting diversity of opinions out there. Have seen a few sources calling for <1" for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC and 1-3" somewhat to well inland of there, while the NWS is still calling for 2-4" for the I-95 corridor (both Philly and NYC offices). And then there are those, like Lee Goldberg, who are splitting the difference and calling for 1-3" (with the lesser amounts towards the coast) near I-95 and 3-6" well inland.

At this point, the 1-3" forecast for I-95 seems reasonable, with snow starting after midnight tomorrow and continuing until mid-morning and then changing to sleet and then quickly to rain as warm air moves in aloft. In addition to more snow N and W, there's a greater chance of some sleet and freezing rain before the change to plain rain early Saturday afternoon.

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RU848789

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Advisories are up for the entire NJ/eastern PA/Metro NYC/LI area. NWS is still more bullish on this than some others, predicting 2-4" for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC still with maybe 3-6" to the N/W of that and 1-2" towards the coast and in Philly/much of South Jersey. Expected to change to rain around 9-10 am for most (earlier near the coast and later inland), with some areas seeing a bit of sleet and then freezing rain before the change to plain rain - and it'll get well up into the 40s later Sat with more rain on the way into Sunday, so I would expect the snow to be gone by then.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

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RocktheRac

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Tommy Elles WCTC calls for 1/2 to 2 inches of snow followed by freezing rain and plain rain by Saturday afternoon.
 

Knight Shift

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Thanks and thanks for the kind words. Today was her first day "home alone" as I worked all day and she did fine - she can now walk around a bit and do some light activities - this recovery is faster than last time, so we're confident she'll be good to go to FL late next week.

Definitely a good weekend for the fireplace - I'm sure we'll be enjoying the same. And we'll be able to see the snowfall through our new windows, lol (got the whole house done, along with new siding, replacing the 43 year old wood shakes).
Nice to hear of the progress. Thanks again for the weather posts, and hope your wife recovers quickly for the holidays. Being sick sucks.
 

bac2therac

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Snow maps from Mt Holly are generally 1-3for Central Jersey with up to 2-5 as you keeo going north and west. Snow will begin a little bit after midnight very light but everything will stick and then start to mix with freezing rain or sleet sometime after 6 am from southeast to northwest across new jersey and we will track that progress of the changeover to all rain for central jersey thrthrough the morning
 

retired711

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Snow maps from Mt Holly are generally 1-3for Central Jersey with up to 2-5 as you keeo going north and west. Snow will begin a little bit after midnight very light but everything will stick and then start to mix with freezing rain or sleet sometime after 6 am from southeast to northwest across new jersey and we will track that progress of the changeover to all rain for central jersey thrthrough the morning

I'm glad to see that you and RU#s are in general agreement. For my part, I don't think the difference beween a half inch and three inches matters very much -- both make driving a little difficult and neither requires much shoveling. It sounds like this snow will not necessitate any shoveling because of the rain that will follow.
 

RU848789

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Advisories are up for the entire NJ/eastern PA/Metro NYC/LI area. NWS is still more bullish on this than some others, predicting 2-4" for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC still with maybe 3-6" to the N/W of that and 1-2" towards the coast and in Philly/much of South Jersey. Expected to change to rain around 9-10 am for most (earlier near the coast and later inland), with some areas seeing a bit of sleet and then freezing rain before the change to plain rain - and it'll get well up into the 40s later Sat with more rain on the way into Sunday, so I would expect the snow to be gone by then.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

phi.png

So, NWS did cut back their forecasts and snowfall maps, predicting a general 1-2" for the I-95 corridor and 1" or less towards the coast, after I posted the above. Wasn't sure why they'd have advisories up, since the criterion is 3" of snow from 195 north and 2" south and east of Trenton/195. Likely it's the risk of a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain, which is in the advisory and the NWS was also recently speculating that there could be a bit more ice than that (see below).

Very, very difficult to forecast these transitions from snow to sleet to ice and the timing being off 1-2 hours can make the difference between 1" of snow and 3" of snow, when precip is falling moderately.

930 AM update...Foresee making some updates to the snow/ice
forecast by early this afternoon after the 12Z models comes in.
Barring any significant shifts with the latest guidance,
anticipate a quicker changeover to freezing rain and rain from
south to north in the morning. This could mean increasing icing
amounts north and west of the Fall Line in eastern PA and
northwestern NJ. There is concern that higher elevations above
700 ft in western Chester and Berks Co. could see two-tenths inch
of ice accretion and could approach warning threshold of one-
quarter inch. Since the changeover from snow to non-frozen precip
occurs earlier in the morning across this area compared to
areas farther north, the cold air will have less time to scour
out at the surface and the initial thumping of the steadier precip
may fall as freezing rain vs sleet/snow from about I-78, north.
Highlighted the potential for a quicker changeover and higher
icing amounts in the 9 AM update to the Winter Weather Advisory
text product.
 

RU848789

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We may see the NWS and others "inch" (pun intended) their forecasts back up by an inch or so across the board. To quote bluewave on AmericanWx (one of the best posters there): "It nice to see the Euro/GFS/ and NAM agree for a change 24 hrs out." All three are essentially showing 2-4" for the I-95 corridor from Trenton to NYC vs. the 1-3" on the NWS maps.
 

bac2therac

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id be careful saying that...dont just repeat the totals those posters are posting verbatim...snowfall output maps are more in line with 1-3 inches for central jersey and NYC if you look...also I think the colder solutions may not mean snow but mean freezing rain and icing will be more of the issue here. Ive seen these situations where it flips from snow to rain at 27 or 28 degrees. I think a lengthier icy period is much more likely than getting a couple of more inches on top of the 1-3
 

bac2therac

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latest NAM snowfall maps do confirm 2-4 inches and higher amounts as you go from northern somerset to the northwestward...this possibly could indicate that we are going to get alot more icing than originally expected before any changeover
 

RU848789

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id be careful saying that...dont just repeat the totals those posters are posting verbatim...snowfall output maps are more in line with 1-3 inches for central jersey and NYC if you look...also I think the colder solutions may not mean snow but mean freezing rain and icing will be more of the issue here. Ive seen these situations where it flips from snow to rain at 27 or 28 degrees. I think a lengthier icy period is much more likely than getting a couple of more inches on top of the 1-3

Do you think I'd actually just blindly repeat what a poster on AmericanWx says? Snowfall maps definitely increased a bit vs. 0Z along I-95, from 1-2" to at least 2-3" and in some cases up to 4" along I-95 (Canadian). Freezing rain does not count towards snowfall totals (sleet does). We're splitting hairs here - let's see what happens and see if the NWS ups totals or not - I think they will.
 

bac2therac

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I just think its the ice potential that needs to be highlighted here. Earlier runs of models had changeovers to rain by 8-9 AM and now that seems to be getting pushed back. We shall see how strong the CAD is especially if you live north of Somerville and into Hunterdon and Morris Counties. They could be hit the hardest in central jersey
 

RU848789

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Do you think I'd actually just blindly repeat what a poster on AmericanWx says? Snowfall maps definitely increased a bit vs. 0Z along I-95, from 1-2" to at least 2-3" and in some cases up to 4" along I-95 (Canadian). Freezing rain does not count towards snowfall totals (sleet does). We're splitting hairs here - let's see what happens and see if the NWS ups totals or not - I think they will.

They did up the totals from NB to NYC to 2-3" from 1-2" early this morning, but south of NB it's still 1-2", plus the 3-4" area now includes Morristown and other areas south of I-80 whereas that was only north of 80 this morning. So they went partway, but not all the way towards what the models were indicating. New maps are up.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

bac - I agree that the ice threat has increased and should be highlighted, especially for areas NW of I-95 and north of 195, and particularly NW of where 78/287 meet Getting over 0.1" of glaze on sub-freezing surfaces before the sun is very high up is a recipe for a real mess and some models are showing up to 0.25" of ice (doesn't mean it'll happen, but needs to be watched), which is ice storm warning level - saving grace could be that it will likely fall on top of a couple of inches of snow, so it's not just a glaze directly on top of paved surfaces.

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RU848789

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Nice to hear of the progress. Thanks again for the weather posts, and hope your wife recovers quickly for the holidays. Being sick sucks.

Thanks for the kind words, Knight Shift (just noticed - crazy time with wintry weather, work, and the wife needing lots of TLC), and to anyone else who said something that I might have missed.
 

SouthJerseyRU

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With the projected forecast, any idea what the road conditions are likely to be Saturday afternoon? Planning on traveling to Philly from Somerset county for a family thing, will stick to major highways.
 

phs73rc77gsm83

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I appreciate these threads and wish there were less bickering. I'm supposed to go up to lake Mohawk tomorrow around 6 pm and return midnight or so. As you know, those roads can be very different from, lets say, the Piscataway area. Freezing rain is my main concern but they could get more snow than here too. Any preliminary thoughts on whether to reschedule or not? Of course I know it's not an exact science and just an educated guess. Thanks.
 

RocktheRac

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They did up the totals from NB to NYC to 2-3" from 1-2" early this morning, but south of NB it's still 1-2", plus the 3-4" area now includes Morristown and other areas south of I-80 whereas that was only north of 80 this morning. So they went partway, but not all the way towards what the models were indicating. New maps are up.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

bac - I agree that the ice threat has increased and should be highlighted, especially for areas NW of I-95 and north of 195, and particularly NW of where 78/287 meet Getting over 0.1" of glaze on sub-freezing surfaces before the sun is very high up is a recipe for a real mess and some models are showing up to 0.25" of ice (doesn't mean it'll happen, but needs to be watched), which is ice storm warning level - saving grace could be that it will likely fall on top of a couple of inches of snow, so it's not just a glaze directly on top of paved surfaces.

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RocktheRac

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No saving grace as roads will be plowed and salted overnight leaving bare pavement for the frz rain. And even if the side roads aren't plow the traffic will matt down the snow and the frz rain will create an ice rink
 

RU848789

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I appreciate these threads and wish there were less bickering. I'm supposed to go up to lake Mohawk tomorrow around 6 pm and return midnight or so. As you know, those roads can be very different from, lets say, the Piscataway area. Freezing rain is my main concern but they could get more snow than here too. Any preliminary thoughts on whether to reschedule or not? Of course I know it's not an exact science and just an educated guess. Thanks.

Based on the forecast, it should be well above freezing in Lake Mohawk by late afternoon, such that the roads should be fine. However, it would only take about a 3-4 hour delay in the warm-up to at least make the early evening still slick. It would a major shift in the evolution of this system for there to be any travel issues at midnight.

If you're worried and can wait until about 2-3 pm to decide, then do so and just check the temps at Lake Mohawk and if they're above freezing by then, then go ahead and make the drive, as they're not going to go back down. In fact, temps should reach near 50F by Sunday late morning.

Plotter.php
 

phs73rc77gsm83

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Based on the forecast, it should be well above freezing in Lake Mohawk by late afternoon, such that the roads should be fine. However, it would only take about a 3-4 hour delay in the warm-up to at least make the early evening still slick. It would a major shift in the evolution of this system for there to be any travel issues at midnight.

If you're worried and can wait until about 2-3 pm to decide, then do so and just check the temps at Lake Mohawk and if they're above freezing by then, then go ahead and make the drive, as they're not going to go back down. In fact, temps should reach near 50F by Sunday late morning.

Plotter.php
Thanks much, appreciate it.
 

bac2therac

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With the projected forecast, any idea what the road conditions are likely to be Saturday afternoon? Planning on traveling to Philly from Somerset county for a family thing, will stick to major highways.

you will definitely be better off since you are heading south. By noon Somerset County is likely over to all rain except maybe the northern parts and Philly would have switched a couple of hours before that. If everything holds as forecast you should be alright travelling south in the afternoon but make sure you check temps and radar conditions or come here and check in
 

RU848789

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No saving grace as roads will be plowed and salted overnight leaving bare pavement for the frz rain. And even if the side roads aren't plow the traffic will matt down the snow and the frz rain will create an ice rink
They did up the totals from NB to NYC to 2-3" from 1-2" early this morning, but south of NB it's still 1-2", plus the 3-4" area now includes Morristown and other areas south of I-80 whereas that was only north of 80 this morning. So they went partway, but not all the way towards what the models were indicating. New maps are up.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

bac - I agree that the ice threat has increased and should be highlighted, especially for areas NW of I-95 and north of 195, and particularly NW of where 78/287 meet Getting over 0.1" of glaze on sub-freezing surfaces before the sun is very high up is a recipe for a real mess and some models are showing up to 0.25" of ice (doesn't mean it'll happen, but needs to be watched), which is ice storm warning level - saving grace could be that it will likely fall on top of a couple of inches of snow, so it's not just a glaze directly on top of paved surfaces.

StormTotalSnowWeb.png


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As feared, the NWS has upped the amount of freezing rain expected in much of Central/North Jersey to around 0.1" (which is enough for an advisory without any snow), with some areas possible getting even up to 0.20" of freezing rain, especially NW of I-95 and between 195/276 and 78. Expect snow to fall through the overnight and until maybe 6 am near the coast, 7-8 am near I-95, and 9-10 am to the NW of I-95 and maybe till 11 am in the far NW areas.

The snow at these times (roughly) will transition to a period of sleet (snow aloft, that melts in the mid-atmosphere, but then freezes into ice pellets near the surface) and then freezing rain (snow aloft, that melts in the mid-atmosphere, but then remains liquid until it freezes on contact with sub-32F surfaces, creating a glaze) and then plain rain. I would expect everywhere but the Poconos and Sussex (and higher elevations in Warren/Morris) and the Hudson Valley to be above freezing and all rain by 12-1 pm, with improving travel conditions (for I-95 north of 195, expect all rain by 10-11 am).

Keep in mind, though, that these transitions are very hard to forecast and actual transition times and durations of each precip type could be off by a couple of hours, significantly impacting snow/ice amounts. But going above freezing by late morning/early afternoon for most of us is not really in question. So, if you can, sit and watch from the couch and hold off on any traveling until the afternoon.
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RU848789

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Slept for a few, just woke up and snow must have just started, as we have about 1/4" on everything and it's snowing lightly and 25F. I'm guessing we'll get about 2-3" here in Metuchen, then some sleet and freezing rain and roads will be ok by early afternoon as temps head into the mid/upper 30s.

The one change from earlier is that while everyone is still going to warm up into the upper 40s/low 50s by sunrise on Sunday morning, that warm-up looks to be slower than originally thought, mostly due to a weak secondary low forming just off the NJ coast, which will bring in NE surface winds for the afternoon/evening.

This means areas north of 78 and especially north of 80 will likely take until late afternoon or early/mid evening to get above 32F, extending the time for icy conditions on the roads. It won't change snowfall amounts, though, as conditions mostly dry out by early afternoon until early Sunday when the rains come. Here's the latest discussion from the NWS-Philly, posted at 2:52 am.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Prior to 215 AM: flurries have started in e PA.

No major changes to the WSW configuration or amounts previously
posted.

Snow will be developing over most of our forecast area between now
and 5 am except may little or no pcpn far southern Delmarva
portion of our forecast area or freezing rain/freezing drizzle ice
pellets there.

Snow should intensify rapidly near sunrise over e PA and the
northern two thirds of NJ with potential for 1 to 2 hours of 1/2
mi mdt snow and snow fall acc rate of half an inch to 1 inch an
hour, particularly near and north of I-78.

Then with 65 to 75 kt sw 850 MB jet nosed into our area near DCA
early this morning, warming will occur aloft but lag at the sfc,
partly due to the strong waa causing a warm frontal wave of low
pressure to scoot newd off the mid-Atlantic midday with subtle
cold air damming. That combined with cold ground and now a colder
NAM 975MB temp threatens to force an extension of the wxa for ice
in ecentral PA newd into nw NJ, high terrain. We lowered guidance
temps significantly today, noting the 00z/17 GFS MAV MOS has used
the 03z temp as the MAX for today in some of the guidance.

So the bulk of the pcpn will fall 11z-17z today with potential for
.6 to .7 inches of frozen water equivalent pcpn vcnty KRDG-KMQS
to vcnty KPTW. isolated max qpf could be 1" in s NJ.

Guidance shows some instability aloft but thunder not introduced
into the fcst attm for the Delmarva ptn of our fcst area.

There maybe another band or two of light pcpn this aftn/eve in e
PA and nw NJ while the main body of the pcpn shield shifts ewd
off the NJ/DE coast this aftn.
 
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RU848789

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Based on the forecast, it should be well above freezing in Lake Mohawk by late afternoon, such that the roads should be fine. However, it would only take about a 3-4 hour delay in the warm-up to at least make the early evening still slick. It would a major shift in the evolution of this system for there to be any travel issues at midnight.

If you're worried and can wait until about 2-3 pm to decide, then do so and just check the temps at Lake Mohawk and if they're above freezing by then, then go ahead and make the drive, as they're not going to go back down. In fact, temps should reach near 50F by Sunday late morning.

Plotter.php

@phs73rc77gsm83 - sorry, it looks like that several hour delay in warm-up is now very likely and it might not get above 32F in Sussex County until late evening. It should be fine for most of the drive there from 5-6 pm, but once you get off Route 15 (which should be ok by then with salting and traffic), the local roads could be pretty icy and could still be icy until close to midnight. The graphic above is "live" so it reflects those changes in the warm-up today.
 

RU848789

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Slept for a few, just woke up and snow must have just started, as we have about 1/4" on everything and it's snowing lightly and 25F. I'm guessing we'll get about 2-3" here in Metuchen, then some sleet and freezing rain and roads will be ok by early afternoon as temps head into the mid/upper 30s.

As of 6:30 am, it has come up to 28F and it's snowing moderately with 1.5" of snow on the ground.

Just took a walk and it's stunningly gorgeous out there right now, but very slippery on the roads and sidewalks, so be careful. Looks like the mix line (for sleet) is down around Philly to Toms River and progressing northward. Hope we can hold onto the snow for a few more hours - would much rather have snow than freezing rain.
 

RU848789

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As of 6:30 am, it has come up to 27F and it's snowing moderately with 1.5" of snow on the ground.

Just took a walk and it's stunningly gorgeous out there right now, but very slippery on the roads and sidewalks, so be careful. Looks like the mix line (for sleet) is down around Philly to Toms River and progressing northward. Hope we can hold onto the snow for a few more hours - would much rather have snow than freezing rain.

Spoke too soon, lol. As of 7:30 am we now have a mix of sleet and snow and coming down moderately, with 2" of snow on the ground (1/2" in the past hour, which is a decent rate). Reports of precip going back between sleet and snow to our south, so hopefully at least the freezing rain holds off.

Lots of accidents out there - just took a ride into downtown Metuchen to get bagels and it's really slick.

Edit - spoke too soon again, lol. It just changed back to all snow at 7:45 and it's pouring snow at its heaviest yet for the storm.
 
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bac2therac

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1.25 inches of snow and now over to sleet and freezing rain...what sucks is if you shovel the snow now you are just laying down a surface for an ice skating rink to develop

hopefully we can get a warm surge and go above 32 before the ice can acrue too much but with temps in the mid 20s we have a long way to go
 

RU848789

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Spoke too soon, lol. As of 7:30 am we now have a mix of sleet and snow and coming down moderately, with 2" of snow on the ground (1/2" in the past hour, which is a decent rate). Reports of precip going back between sleet and snow to our south, so hopefully at least the freezing rain holds off.

Lots of accidents out there - just took a ride into downtown Metuchen to get bagels and it's really slick.

Edit - spoke too soon again, lol. It just changed back to all snow at 7:45 and it's pouring snow at its heaviest yet for the storm.

Well, that was short-lived. The snow quickly changed to sleet and now freezing rain, at 27F, still. 2.25" total snow/sleet, as I think we're done with snow/sleet. Freezing rain (ZR) is the most dangerous wintry precip - if we get ZR for a couple of hours, it'll become a treacherous ice sheet out there, on untreated surfaces, with surface temps below freezing. The 32F line appears to be from about Mount Holly across to about Sandy Hook, so it's got a ways to go to get up here.
 

RU848789

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1.25 inches of snow and now over to sleet and freezing rain...what sucks is if you shovel the snow now you are just laying down a surface for an ice skating rink to develop

hopefully we can get a warm surge and go above 32 before the ice can acrue too much but with temps in the mid 20s we have a long way to go

Yeah, I was just driving around while it was still snow/sleet and they had just plowed Main St. and other county roads in Metuchen and now with freezing rain, I'm worried they'll be ice rinks if not salted well. It's 28F now and it looks like it could stay below 32F for at least 1-2 hours, which would mean at least 0.1" of glaze, which would be bad. Be careful out there until it goes above 32F wherever you are - good thing now is most cars have thermometers.
 

bac2therac

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30 now in Belle Mead....great news as we are getting enough warming where treated surfaces will not be that bad. Just give it a couple hours
 

phs73rc77gsm83

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@phs73rc77gsm83 - sorry, it looks like that several hour delay in warm-up is now very likely and it might not get above 32F in Sussex County until late evening. It should be fine for most of the drive there from 5-6 pm, but once you get off Route 15 (which should be ok by then with salting and traffic), the local roads could be pretty icy and could still be icy until close to midnight. The graphic above is "live" so it reflects those changes in the warm-up today.
Thanks. Yea, freezing rain and ice bother me more than snow. Lake Mohawk is a bit higher in elevation and a bit north, obviously, so between that, the hills, and the fact that back roads are less traveled leaves this a question mark. I would just assume reschedule but not sure about that. Thanks again.
 

RU848789

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Temps finally up to 32F in Metuchen and most of the surrounding area. About 0.10-0.15" of glaze on top of all untreated surfaces as far as I can tell. Lots of spinouts and accidents reported. Fortunately, well-traveled roads with dark surfaces are above freezing now and unlikely to be an issue from here on out, but be especially careful on side streets, driveways and sidewalks.

North of 78, most locations are still a bit below 32F, although fortunately, the precip is over for most of Central/North Jersey, so they're unlikely to get any more freezing rain, but the freezing rain that they got is resulting in treacherous conditions. Will take a few more hours to get above 32F north of 78 and then 80.

Edit: note that the winter weather advisories were dropped for Mercer/Middlesex and all NJ counties S/E of there, as well as for the SE PA counties near Philly, as temps are 32F or above. Advisories are still up for the Lehigh Valley, Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Warren until 2 pm for some lingering freezing drizzle and for the Poconos/Sussex until 6 pm for the same reason, as temps there will be the last to go above 32F.
 
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RULoyal

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I like to look at the Wundermap on Weather Underground. Granted not all the "weather stations" are 100% accurate but it gives a pretty good idea of what temps are doing in the various regions
 

RU848789

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Metuchen, NJ

mildone

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She's improving steadily, thanks and has certainly become a medical oddity of sorts, as getting viral meningitis 4 times over about 35 years is extraordinarily rare, although the syndrome does have a name - Mollaret's Meningitis, which is simply recurrent viral meningitis.

The doctors have no idea, really, why anyone gets VM, per se - the vast majority of people exposed to the viruses commonly found in VM patients (enteroviruses and herpes viruses are the most common sources of VM) never get VM, so the real question is why does someone get VM.

She's not a nurse and doesn't travel much, but she's always had migraines and at first, whenever she's gotten VM, it looks just like a bad migraine, but then it gets worse and each time it was obvious she had something more serious than a migraine. It's certainly scary not knowing why or when the next occurrence may strike.
Hm. Well we know where she gets the headaches from. But the recurrent VM is probably not your fault. :D
 

mildone

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(Being old, my night driving ability is not great, especially in precipitation).
I've noticed that my night vision is nowhere near as acute as it once way. My solution is to just drive faster so I can light up the distant road more quickly. :)