Surprised that @RU848789 even bothers responding to the troll posts.
OT: Winter storm for 2/12 - Big Mess of Snow/Sleet/Rain (after minor snowfall on 2/11)
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
I think this whole new descriptive language thing will really work well on the ladies, too...
I think I agree. He likes to argue. The arguments with you are at least entertaining and somewhat informative, as you guys like to bicker over weather weenie stuff and precipitation types. You are like the Chevy Chase/Jane Curtain Point/Counterpoint on the old SNL. Others, however, just troll for trolling sake.
In other news......has anyone tried out the new Hillsborough Deli yet? They just hired a cheesemonger to help out the folks.
oh Claire's hamster is really going to like spinning on the wheel for that
Exactly. Character flaw, lol. My wife has said that I like to "argue for sport," so that's definitely part of it. I've also never quite understood the troll mentality - I don't knowingly try to annoy others, but trolls love doing that, just to get a reaction.
90% of the time, I have no issue with bac's posts/challenges, as he usually provides some rationale for disagreeing (although he's gotten more snarky lately for reasons I'm not sure of, which is tiresome), but I should probably just ignore the pure troll posts. Maybe someday.
The storm was great for radio reception.I was able to pick up KMOX(1120 AM) from St.Louis last night,a very rare occurrence in Hudson County,given Bloomberg's Tower in Kearny at 1130 AM,which used to be able to heard from guitar amplifiers.
GFS and Euro are a miss for Saturday.....Euro has no snow north of Philly/SJ basically and GFS well south
Some of us are interested in what happens in Philly and SJ. I hope this possible storm is monitored on this site.
Why should the rest of us have to pay for your poor life choices ;)
Mesoscale Snow Event ongoing as we speak for E PA/W CNJ. This is not a squall line, like a few weeks ago, this is more like a localized instability region producing snow. Cool stuff. They didn't say how much snow, but the radar looks juicy for some.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
252 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019
NJZ007>010-012-013-015-PAZ061-062-103>106-132030-
Mercer-Morris-Hunterdon-Western
Monmouth-Somerset-Middlesex-Warren-Lower Bucks-Lehigh-Eastern
Montgomery-Northampton-Upper Bucks-Western Montgomery-
252 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019
...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS...
HUNTERDON...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...MERCER...SOMERSET...CENTRAL
MONMOUTH...MIDDLESEX...NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN
LEHIGH...BUCKS AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...
At 249 PM EST, an area of heavy snow was centered over Northern
Bucks and Hunterdon counties, moving east at 45 mph. This snow will
result in a period of low visibilities and hazardous travel
conditions.
Locations impacted include...
Allentown, New Brunswick, Easton, Somerville, Somerset, Bethlehem,
Old Bridge, East Brunswick, Bridgewater, South Brunswick, North
Brunswick, Manalapan, Ewing, Lansdale, Forks, Middlesex, Princeton,
Bound Brook, Manville and Quakertown.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
252 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019
NJZ007>010-012-013-015-PAZ061-062-103>106-132030-
Mercer-Morris-Hunterdon-Western
Monmouth-Somerset-Middlesex-Warren-Lower Bucks-Lehigh-Eastern
Montgomery-Northampton-Upper Bucks-Western Montgomery-
252 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019
...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS...
HUNTERDON...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...MERCER...SOMERSET...CENTRAL
MONMOUTH...MIDDLESEX...NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN
LEHIGH...BUCKS AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...
At 249 PM EST, an area of heavy snow was centered over Northern
Bucks and Hunterdon counties, moving east at 45 mph. This snow will
result in a period of low visibilities and hazardous travel
conditions.
Locations impacted include...
Allentown, New Brunswick, Easton, Somerville, Somerset, Bethlehem,
Old Bridge, East Brunswick, Bridgewater, South Brunswick, North
Brunswick, Manalapan, Ewing, Lansdale, Forks, Middlesex, Princeton,
Bound Brook, Manville and Quakertown.
Regarding Saturday night's potential event, the 18Z GFS shows a couple of inches, mostly S of 195/276, the 12Z GFS-FV3 only shows snow south of Balt-Cape May, the 12Z CMC shows an area-wide couple of inches and the 12Z Euro shows a few inches south of a Philly-Toms River line. Certainly not worth a thread yet, but I think it'll be thread worthy tomorrow if we have consensus on a modest hit for Philly/SNJ (and not just for camdenlaw, lol) or further north even.
The Sunday night/Monday system is looking a bit more potent for the Philly-NYC area. The 18Z GFS shows <1" along 95 for our area and both the 12Z GFS-FV3 and CMC show several inches for the whole area, especially N of 276/195 (up to 5-6" for CNJ), while the 12Z Euro shows nada. NWS is much more enthused about this one, at least for the larger area; a little early for a thread, though, IMO, especially without the Euro on board for anything. 2/20 looks potent, but it's a week away.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
326 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019
The next system develops over the Midwest Saturday night, and
looks to affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. Models are having a hard time with this
one, as the GFS has a primary low moving through the Ohio valley
and into Pennsylvania and New York, while a secondary low forms
south of Delmarva and passes south and east of New Jersey
Sunday night before merging with the primary low south and east
of Cape Cod on Monday. The ECMWF does not have this feature.
Rather, the low takes a similar track to the one on Saturday.
The ECMWF has much less QPF compared to the GFS, but the more
northern track of the GFS should allow for more warmer air, and
more in the way of rain. On top of that, the CMC-GDPS is much
slower compared to the GFS and ECMWF, with a much more southern
development of the low. The CMC does not bring the low into the
Mid-Atlantic until at least Monday morning, with the bulk of the
precip affecting the local area Monday.
Due to confidence being low on how this storm will affect the
region, will use consensus guidance and carry generally chance
PoPs Sunday and Sunday night. This also results in a snow, then
rain/snow mix Sunday, then all snow Sunday night. Accumulating
snow possible during this time.
The Sunday night/Monday system is looking a bit more potent for the Philly-NYC area. The 18Z GFS shows <1" along 95 for our area and both the 12Z GFS-FV3 and CMC show several inches for the whole area, especially N of 276/195 (up to 5-6" for CNJ), while the 12Z Euro shows nada. NWS is much more enthused about this one, at least for the larger area; a little early for a thread, though, IMO, especially without the Euro on board for anything. 2/20 looks potent, but it's a week away.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
326 PM EST Wed Feb 13 2019
The next system develops over the Midwest Saturday night, and
looks to affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Sunday afternoon
through Monday night. Models are having a hard time with this
one, as the GFS has a primary low moving through the Ohio valley
and into Pennsylvania and New York, while a secondary low forms
south of Delmarva and passes south and east of New Jersey
Sunday night before merging with the primary low south and east
of Cape Cod on Monday. The ECMWF does not have this feature.
Rather, the low takes a similar track to the one on Saturday.
The ECMWF has much less QPF compared to the GFS, but the more
northern track of the GFS should allow for more warmer air, and
more in the way of rain. On top of that, the CMC-GDPS is much
slower compared to the GFS and ECMWF, with a much more southern
development of the low. The CMC does not bring the low into the
Mid-Atlantic until at least Monday morning, with the bulk of the
precip affecting the local area Monday.
Due to confidence being low on how this storm will affect the
region, will use consensus guidance and carry generally chance
PoPs Sunday and Sunday night. This also results in a snow, then
rain/snow mix Sunday, then all snow Sunday night. Accumulating
snow possible during this time.
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I love Philly and SJ but what a funny post. I gotta laugh!
Two smaller type events back to back should be in one thread not two...there is no point for a seperate thread for the Saturday non event which is progged for just the southern areas at best, why not just include that with the Sunday night/Monday thread which also is rather benign....and here is where I quibble and throw snark at you..the GFS shows very little....2/10 of an inch of snow in central jersey and is actual more rainy than snowy not sure why you are saying couple of inches...here is the 24 hour snowfall map
Two smaller type events back to back should be in one thread not two...there is no point for a seperate thread for the Saturday non event which is progged for just the southern areas at best, why not just include that with the Sunday night/Monday thread which also is rather benign....and here is where I quibble and throw snark at you..the GFS shows very little....2/10 of an inch of snow in central jersey and is actual more rainy than snowy not sure why you are saying couple of inches...here is the 24 hour snowfall map
I'd rather do both in one thread, but didn't want to annoy some folks. I also have zero problem with you pointing out an error (I was looking at total snowfall, not 24 hour snowfall) - that's not snark to me at all - that's just making a good point. I don't think I had a problem with any of your posts in this entire thread - lots of good posts. The snark comment was in reference to some other threads, especially the pattern ones. Thought this was an excellent thread, for the most part.
Forget the non event this weekend and start working on my forecast in the Treasure Island area for 2/25 - 2/27.
I concur. I, along with many others, know that weather can shift on a dime and thus affect the results. However, as I had stated in various other weather threads, not only is the info that RU#s gives is helpful, but it helps to educate me a little on the intricacies of weather... especially snow, which I have fun in and enjoy (but of course I would also like to be safe about it). I also don’t mind when others point out other weather related information, but the fighting, bickering, and making fun of, that people post is quite distracting
"Pfft" to all this. I'm just anxious to get home to the wife and give her 18" of sleet equivalent.
I'm sure there's a clever joke to be made here with these two posts being made within moments of each other...
1 inch of rain equivalent botching.. or 10 inches of snow equivalent bitching?
Lee Goldberg on channel 7 seemed to think both would amount to not much. One thread should suffice, but @e5fdny needs to give approval.
Based on tonight's 12Z models, for the Saturday event, the models generally shifted southward with the precip, such that only the CMC brings 1-2" of snow to the Philly-NYC corridor (and 2-4" S of 276/195), with the Euro, FV3, and GFS all confining measurable snow to south of Balt-AC, so definitely not thread worthy, even for most Philly/SNJ folks For the Sunday night/early Monday event, things look slightly better for north of 195/276, as the GFS has an inch or so generally N of 195/276, the FV3 has <1" N of that line, and the CMC has 1-3" N of 276/195, while the Euro has nada, so also not thread-worthy IMO, since it's still 4+ days out.
I think we're almost out of time for the Saturday event to be meaningful north of Philly-Toms River (unless the CMC scores a major unexpected coup) and the Sun/Mon event looks minor, but this winter snow lovers would kill for minor. Next Wednesday is looking better for snow (and maybe mixed precip) for our area, than Sat/Mon, but things often look better 6-7 days out. For now, it's just easier to monitor in this thread, IMO and start a new thread only if something more significant pops up. NWS discussion below.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 AM EST Thu Feb 14 2019
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday and Saturday night: This is the period where the broad mid
and upper level ridge should begin to set up over the Caribbean.
With the exception of the CMC, most operational models had a
noticeable shift south the track of the low on Saturday which should
develop along the front (now south of the region). Consequently,
most guidance keeps precipitation within our region confined to
Delmarva and far southern Jersey. Even in these locations,
potentially being on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield
of this system, any precipitation should be light. As for
precipitation type, model soundings do depict a low level warm layer
for part of the event, but it doesn`t look deep or warm enough to
see significant melting of ice crystals. Thus, expect this to be
strictly a snow/rain event. However, even if it is all snow, snow
amounts would likely be less than an inch, so impacts with this
system should be minor.
Sunday through Monday: As the caribbean ridge builds, the track of
subsequent low pressure systems should shift further north. Thus,
with the next system Sunday night into Monday, the center of the low
could be considerably closer to our region (although still south) as
compared to the Saturday system. Therefore, there is at least a
chance of precipitation across the entire region with this system,
primarily on Sunday night.
Tuesday and Wednesday: Both the GFS and ECMWF depict a warm front
lifting north as a low develops along the front through this period.
While the warm front may not get north of the entire region, both of
these models have it far enough north to bring another chance for
precipitation across the region. Precipitation type will be highly
dependent on the location and evolution of the warm front.
Lee Goldberg is a smart man, lol; see my latest post...
Lee is no Amy Freeze, who you should give more props for her name alone. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
The Saturday threat is essentially dead for anyone N of Philly-Toms River and is likely dead for anyone N of Balt-AC; from there, southward, could be an inch to maybe 2", but temps will be borderline, so there could be rain mixed in or white rain (snow falling but not accumulating with temps in the mid-30s at the surface, especially during the day).
The Sun/Mon threat is minor for most of the area, as 1 to maybe 2" of snow could fall, primarily N of 276/195, as per most models, except the Euro, which shows nada for both events N of DC-Cape May. If we get better model consensus on 1-2" being likely maybe then a thread makes sense, as even minor snowfalls can be an issue around here, especially given the potential impact on a Monday morning commute, with temps below 32F until late morning.
Peeking ahead, next Wednesday's system is looking more potent and has the potential to be similar to this week's snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain fest, with more frozen N/W of 95 and N of 195. Still too early to talk details. NWS-NYC discussion was better, IMO.
National Weather Service New York NY
421 PM EST Thu Feb 14 2019
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The aforementioned cold front is expected to stall well south of
Long Island on Sat. Two weak waves of low pressure will track
along this boundary, the first on Sat, and does not appear that
it will impact the local area. Can`t rule out a few flurries as
the northern edge of the pcpn shield could be just south of the
island, however no accumulation is anticipated. The second
passes Sun night into Mon, although only light pcpn amounts are
expected with this system. Thermal profiles support snow at the
onset around midnight Sun night with a changeover to rain,
mainly at the coast, late Mon morning and afternoon. There could
be a brief changeover back to snow before ending late Mon aftn.
CMC is a little more bullish with it`s pcpn amounts, but seems
to be an outlier for such a weak system, thus have put less
weight on its solution at this time. EC continues to be dry with
strong Canadian high pres building in suppressing the system,
much more so than the GFS.
High pres builds in Mon night/Tue and there is surprisingly
decent agreement amongst the guidance for a midweek storm next
week, however am leery on the details due to the uncertainty
with the Sun night/Mon system. Thus confidence is low. Could
have a similar situation to what occurred this past Tue, but
will need a few more days to iron the details out.
Forecasters not enthused by coming rollout of "new" GFS model in March. It's still inferior to the Euro and some feel it may not even be any better than the current GFS, at least on snowstorms (it's slightly better by "standard" verification scores on upper air forecasts of pressure/temperature). Ouch.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...orecasters-dont-trust/?utm_term=.f44e7771a697
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weat...orecasters-dont-trust/?utm_term=.f44e7771a697
Hey #'s, I'm driving my son to Newark Airport Wednesday morning at 5:00 am for a business meeting in Chicago. Leaving from Hazlet, what's that drive looking like at the moment/ Weatherbug is saying 1-3 inches. Is it starting Tuesday night or later on Wednesday? Thanks.
Crazy busy at work right now, but Monday is looking a little healthier (could be a 1-2" event, especially N of 78), as is Wednesday (maybe a couple to several inches of snow/sleet, although we're still 4-5 days out; the Euro is on board for both) - was going to start a thread for both later this afternoon (really for Weds, as early Monday is still pretty minor).
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