Playoff Selections If I were on the committee

[CoralKnight]

1. Alabama -In no matter what If Florida wins conference they’re still out.



2. Ohio St- In no matter what



3. Michigan- Out no matter what.



4. Clemson- In - must beat Virginia Tech. If Virginia Tech wins they’re out. and winner Wisc/PSU in.



5. Washington-In -must beat Colorado. If Colorado wins they’re out.



6 Winner Wis/PSU In. - If either Clemson or Washington loses.



8. Oklahoma- In If they beat OSU, and both Clemson & Washington lose.

 

[rubigtimenow]

All true except 2 things:
Oklahoma has almost no chance whatsoever. They would have to win by 50+ to even enter the conversation.
If both Clemson and Washington lose, b1g sends 3!

 

[orange830]

If Clemson and Wash both somehow lost, I would put Michigan in, they beat both Psu and Wisc, and of their two losses one came in ot to the number two team in the country, and the other on a last second fg..

 

[rubigtimenow]

If Clemson and Wash both somehow lost, I would put Michigan in, they beat both Psu and Wisc, and of their two losses one came in ot to the number two team in the country, and the other on a last second fg..

So who would you put in if only Washington OR Clemson loses?

 

[mdk01]

Even if Washington wins, unless it's big, I wouldn't put it past the committee to screw them (Michigan or if Oklahoma wins big).

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

So who would you put in if only Washington OR Clemson loses?

That would make the whole "conference champions"-favored thing a farce... because Michigan should go and the world would love to see a rematch in the first round.. which would probably guarantee neither team is healthy enough to beat Bama the next week.

And you know Saban and Bama does not want to see Urban Meyer and OSU with a few weeks to prepare. Hmm.. didn't Bama thump someone up north in the early season recently? Oh, right, Wisky in 2015 in Texas. Yeah.. Urban has their number.. I hope.

 

[LotusAggressor]

That would make the whole "conference champions"-favored thing a farce... because Michigan should go and the world would love to see a rematch in the first round.. which would probably guarantee neither team is healthy enough to beat Bama the next week.

And you know Saban and Bama does not want to see Urban Meyer and OSU with a few weeks to prepare. Hmm.. didn't Bama thump someone up north in the early season recently? Oh, right, Wisky in 2015 in Texas. Yeah.. Urban has their number.. I hope.

Saban has probably figured out Meyer's offense by now.

 

[PedroPete3]

Even if penn state wins I don't think there is a scenario where they get in. Their schedule was too weak this year. But I have a feeling they will finally be exposed this week by Wisky...

 

[jason21psu]

1. Alabama -In no matter what If Florida wins conference they’re still out.



2. Ohio St- In no matter what



3. Michigan- Out no matter what.



4. Clemson- In - must beat Virginia Tech. If Virginia Tech wins they’re out. and winner Wisc/PSU in.



5. Washington-In -must beat Colorado. If Colorado wins they’re out.



6 Winner Wis/PSU In. - If either Clemson or Washington loses.



8. Oklahoma- In If they beat OSU, and both Clemson & Washington lose.

Agree with 1, 2, 4, 5, 6.

I'm using S&P+ rankings to weigh resumes since they supposedly factor in opponent strength which should help remove bias. But I only think it's valid as a tool for weighing resume's. In other words, I don't think you can just look at S&P+ rankings to determine playoff participants because at some point the outcome of the games matter.

With that, Oklahoma has no chance. Their best win to date is #24-TCU Oklahoma State is 23 but if OU beats them they're likely to fall. But assume they stay at 23 for the sake of the exercise. Oklahoma would have 2 top 25 wins, 3 top 40 wins, and 10 FBS wins, Worst loss would be to 28 Houston, best win would be 23 OkSU. Average S&P+ rank of their wins 62.1

To add to 6, Colorado has a case if they win but they have an FCS game so would only have 10 FBS wins, I think that gives B1G winner first in should UWash or Clemson falter.

Colorado OR Michigan is in Clemson loses AND Colorado wins. It'd be real close, like coin toss close. Michigan 3 top 25/40 wins and the head-to-head win, Colorado would have 2 top 25 & and another top 40 win and the conference championship.Realistically Michigan probably should get in but I think the committee would not put 3 B1G teams in and the PAC-12 Championship would be the tie breaker for them over UM.

If we won we'd have 4 top 25 wins, 4 top 40 wins. If Wisconsin wins they have 3 top 25 wins and an additional top 40 win against Nebraska.

Clemson is the only other team with 4 potential top 40 wins and that's assuming they win, which again guarantees them a spot. Except for the FCS game Clemson schedule is surprisingly good given what we heard or believe about the ACC,

 

[jason21psu]

Even if penn state wins I don't think there is a scenario where they get in. Their schedule was too weak this year. But I have a feeling they will finally be exposed this week by Wisky...

If we win and Clemson OR Washington lose I'd bet we're in. Our SOS is 6 according to FEI ranking, your's was #1 FWIW.

 

[FanuSanu52]

Even if Washington wins, unless it's big, I wouldn't put it past the committee to screw them (Michigan or if Oklahoma wins big).

Don't see that happening. Washington is No. 4 right now. If they win their champ game, no way a Michigan team, who's watching games on TV next week, is going to jump them, nor is a 2-loss (12-game) Oklahoma team.

If the committee does either of those inexcusable things, it should be blown up immediately. UW controls its destiny.

 

[RUonBrain]

1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Michigan
4) Wisconsin

Okay, that might not happen.
Just being a homer.
Imagine the riots across the country.

 

[JQRU91]

1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Michigan
4) Wisconsin

Okay, that might not happen.
Just being a homer.
Imagine the riots across the country.

If Clemson and Washington lose and that happens, they've got no one to blame but themselves. Win and they're in.

 

[PSUPOWER]

1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Michigan
4) Wisconsin

Okay, that might not happen.
Just being a homer.
Imagine the riots across the country.

If 12/13-game regular season resumes that include won/loss records, strength of schedules and point differentials are analyzed objectively considering only team performances on the field that Final Four is possible.

 

[RUfinal4]

Considering the playoff committee has said in the past that they will give extra weighting to a conference championship game I think Michigan will have a tough time getting in over Penn St or Wisky. Mich finishing 11-1 while PSU / Wisky will be 11-2 with an extra win over a top 10 team.

 

[RURM85]

Michigan not getting in over the B1G Conference Champion. Sorry. The Committee values a Conference Championship more than any other factor.

I also believe that Colorado or Oklahoma have a better chance of getting in if Clemson and Washington lose. Both will win their Conferences (Colorado a CC) and playing better football than a team that just lost 2 straight. Also the Committee will not put 3 B1G teams in the playoffs. Not happening.

 

[PSUPOWER]

Michigan not getting in over the B1G Conference Champion. Sorry. The Committee values a Conference Championship more than any other factor.

I also believe that Colorado or Oklahoma have a better chance of getting in if Clemson and Washington lose. Both will win their Conferences (Colorado a CC) and playing better football than a team that just lost 2 straight. Also the Committee will not put 3 B1G teams in the playoffs. Not happening.

The selection committee does not value conference championships more than any other factor.

The selection committee has been directed by the 10 FBS commissioners in its protocol to use head-to-head results and conference championships as tiebreakers when résumés are comparable. But, entire 12/13-game regular season resumes based on the performance of each team on the field are what the committee values most.

 

[RURM85]

The selection committee does not value conference championships more than any other factor.

The selection committee has been directed by the 10 FBS commissioners in its protocol to use head-to-head results and conference championships as tiebreakers when résumés are comparable. But, entire 12/13-game regular season resumes based on the performance of each team on the field are what the committee values most.

The protocol also says "Ranking football teams is an art, not a science." Protocol throws in a number of different factors - CCs, head-to-head, SOS, comparable resumes (define that one because you can't). In addition, they're more forgiven on earlier losses than late losses over the course of 12/13 games and do employ the eye test (ask Ohio State about that one).

Just the fact that they use CCs as a tiebreaker indicates it values this factor more than others. So far we have had 8 teams in 2 years make the playoffs and each of the 8 teams have won its CC game (excluding Oklahoma who won its CC).

Ohio State may be the first team to make the Playoffs and not win its CC and that's where it will end this year barring a Florida upset over Alabama which then creates chaos. Michigan has minimum to no shot of going to the playoffs by not winning its conference and riding a 2 game losing streak late in the season.

 

[G- RUnit]

What is the point of Conference Championships if they mean nothing?

 

[RURM85]

What is the point of Conference Championships if they mean nothing?

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/what...-selection-committee-value-when-ranking-teams

 

[PSUPOWER]

The protocol also says "Ranking football teams is an art, not a science." Protocol throws in a number of different factors - CCs, head-to-head, SOS, comparable resumes (define that one because you can't). In addition, they're more forgiven on earlier losses than late losses over the course of 12/13 games and do employ the eye test (ask Ohio State about that one).

Just the fact that they use CCs as a tiebreaker indicates it values this factor more than others. So far we have had 8 teams in 2 years make the playoffs and each of the 8 teams have won its CC game (excluding Oklahoma who won its CC).

Ohio State may be the first team to make the Playoffs and not win its CC and that's where it will end this year barring a Florida upset over Alabama which then creates chaos. Michigan has minimum to no shot of going to the playoffs by not winning its conference and riding a 2 game losing streak late in the season.

The 12/13-game resumes that will be used to determine a national Final Four are built primarily by Win/Loss records, Strength Of Schedule and Point Differentials. Essentially, they are built by each teams performance on the field over the course of the entire season.

Tiebreakers come into play when the 12/13-game resumes of a pair or set of teams are comparable.

 

[PSUPOWER]

What is the point of Conference Championships if they mean nothing?

Conference Championships mean a lot to teams within a conference. They can also get winners into better bowl games and they can act as tiebreakers when a pair or set of teams have comparable 12/13-game resumes that are worthy of national championship consideration.

 

[dicemen99]

The 12/13-game resumes that will be used to determine a national Final Four are built primarily by Win/Loss records, Strength Of Schedule and Point Differentials. Essentially, they are built by each teams performance on the field over the course of the entire season.

Tiebreakers come into play when the 12/13-game resumes of a pair or set of teams are comparable.

One thing you consistently miss in your analysis is that the committee has stated they value at how teams are playing at the end of the season as opposed to how they played early on (in terms of resume).

Michigan losing 2 out of their last 3 and going from 1st to 3rd in their division is not going to play well no matter how you attempt to spin their losses. Iowa was blown out at home a week before they beat Michigan. Honestly, tOSU has been somewhat inconsistent over the last half of the season, but their resume is the best in the country besides Bama's. I don't see Michigan getting in at all unless we are looking at the unlikely scenario of everybody getting upset.

 

[Rutgers85]

Sorry but if psu wins the BIG, they deserve to be in over OSU. While I feel if they played again that OSU would win, psu did beat them head to head and will have won the championship.

 

[RU-ROCS]

All of the pundits I've heard think PSU has a real shot to the final 4 if they win, but Wisconsin has no shot if they win. I don't get it. Wisconsin's only 2 losses are nail-biters at top-5 Michigan and in OT to top-3 OSU, but they also beat the likes of LSU and Nebraska. PSU lost to a mediocre Pitt team and got manhandled 45-10 by Michigan. Yes, they beat OSU in another nail biter, but that is their only quality win. I just don't get the disparity in perception between their chances compared to the Badgers. It seems the home win over OSU is being weighted far more heavily than either team's full body of work.

 

[dicemen99]

Sorry but if psu wins the BIG, they deserve to be in over OSU. While I feel if they played again that OSU would win, psu did beat them head to head and will have won the championship.

I disagree. tOSU has a better resume and will continue to have one even if PSU wins the B1G title. Their only loss on the season was by 3 points on the road in a night game to a Top 10 team in the country.

 

[G- RUnit]

I disagree. tOSU has a better resume and will continue to have one even if PSU wins the B1G title. Their only loss on the season was by 3 points on the road in a night game to a Top 10 team in the country.

If PSU wins the Conference championship and beat OSU than the entire system is just one huge mockery.

 

[dicemen99]

All of the pundits I've heard think PSU has a real shot to the final 4 if they win, but Wisconsin has no shot if they win. I don't get it. Wisconsin's only 2 losses are nail-biters at top-5 Michigan and in OT to top-3 OSU, but they also beat the likes of LSU and Nebraska. PSU lost to a mediocre Pitt team and got manhandled 45-10 by Michigan. Yes, they beat OSU in another nail biter, but that is their only quality win. I just don't get the disparity in perception between their chances compared to the Badgers. It seems the home win over OSU is being weighted far more heavily that either team's full body of work.

You just listed Nebraska as a quality win for Wisconsin, but don't list Iowa for PSU. Iowa finishes ahead of Nebraska in the B1G and beats them H-T-H 40-10 last week. By the way, Iowa beat Michigan. The week after PSU blasted them at Iowa. And the mediocre Pitt team that you cited as a reason to downgrade PSU went on the road and beat a playoff team (Clemson), while they only beat PSU by 3 at home early in the season.

People just see what they want them to see. Wisconsin and PSU with very similar resumes this year. The only boost they are getting (why talking heads are saying they have a shot) is because they will have beaten a team in the playoff (tOSU) AND won the conference they play in. I don't really agree with that, they probably need Clemson or Washington to lose to get in, but if they do - PSU will deserve it.

 

[RURM85]

The 12/13-game resumes that will be used to determine a national Final Four are built primarily by Win/Loss records, Strength Of Schedule and Point Differentials. Essentially, they are built by each teams performance on the field over the course of the entire season.

Tiebreakers come into play when the 12/13-game resumes of a pair or set of teams are comparable.

Wrong. See dicemen post and read the language in the protocol's mission statement

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/what...-selection-committee-value-when-ranking-teams

 

[Rutgers85]

I disagree. tOSU has a better resume and will continue to have one even if PSU wins the B1G title. Their only loss on the season was by 3 points on the road in a night game to a Top 10 team in the country.

I understand your point but they lost to psu and will have won the championship. They didn't lose in the first week. Trust me, I don't want them in the final 4 even though it would be fun to watch them lose to Alabama by 40. Plus, we wouldn't have to listen to them cry about some great conspiracy against them.

 

[PSUPOWER]

One thing you consistently miss in your analysis is that the committee has stated they value at how teams are playing at the end of the season as opposed to how they played early on (in terms of resume).

Michigan losing 2 out of their last 3 and going from 1st to 3rd in their division is not going to play well no matter how you attempt to spin their losses. Iowa was blown out at home a week before they beat Michigan. Honestly, tOSU has been somewhat inconsistent over the last half of the season, but their resume is the best in the country besides Bama's. I don't see Michigan getting in at all unless we are looking at the unlikely scenario of everybody getting upset.

My analysis isn't focused on tiebreakers. Tiebreakers shouldn't be considered unless teams have comparable resumes.

You seem to look at Michigan's 2nd loss as an eliminator.
You seem to feel that they should be penalized severely for losing their last game. I feel that Michigan played like the 3rd best team in the country during their last game.

Michigan took Ohio State into 2(OT) and only lost by 3 on the road. They played a great game against Ohio State. I don't think any other team in the country could go into Columbus and play Ohio State that tough this year.

Who you play and how good they are as well as where you play and how much you win or lose by does matter. All regular season games matter too, not just the ones that you can remember.

If Michigan is judged by just their last game this year, they should get national championship consideration, even though they were 0-1.

 

[RURM85]

One thing you consistently miss in your analysis is that the committee has stated they value at how teams are playing at the end of the season as opposed to how they played early on (in terms of resume).

Michigan losing 2 out of their last 3 and going from 1st to 3rd in their division is not going to play well no matter how you attempt to spin their losses. Iowa was blown out at home a week before they beat Michigan. Honestly, tOSU has been somewhat inconsistent over the last half of the season, but their resume is the best in the country besides Bama's. I don't see Michigan getting in at all unless we are looking at the unlikely scenario of everybody getting upset.

They're also not putting in 3 B1G teams and ignoring the winners of 3 conferences if 2 of the winners are Colorado and Oklahoma. I have no doubt that if a 2nd B1G program is selected it will be the winner of the CC game.

 

[PSUPOWER]

They're also not putting in 3 B1G teams and ignoring the winners of 3 conferences if 2 of the winners are Colorado and Oklahoma. I have no doubt that if a 2nd B1G program is selected it will be the winner of the CC game.

Maybe not, but, Michigan beat Colorado by 17 and Ohio State beat Oklahoma in Norman by 21.

 

[FanuSanu52]

If PSU wins the Conference championship and beat OSU than the entire system is just one huge mockery.

No.

 

[PSUPOWER]

Wrong. See dicemen post and read the language in the protocol's mission statement

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/what...-selection-committee-value-when-ranking-teams

That statement just reiterates what I have been saying and refutes what you have been saying. Please read it again.

Thanks !

 

[dicemen99]

My analysis isn't focused on tiebreakers. Tiebreakers shouldn't be considered unless teams have comparable resumes.

You seem to look at Michigan's 2nd loss as an eliminator.
You seem to feel that they should be penalized severely for losing their last game. I feel that Michigan played like the 3rd best team in the country during their last game.

Michigan took Ohio State into 2(OT) and only lost by 3.
They played a great game against Ohio State. I don't think any other team in the country could go into Columbus and play Ohio State that tough this year.

Who you play and how good they are as well as where you play and how much you win or lose by does matter. All regular season games matter too, not just the ones that you can remember.

If Michigan is judged by just their last game this year, they should get national championship consideration, even though they were 0-1.

No, I am looking at their last THREE games. In addition to their resume. Last three games:

LOSS at Iowa
Win 20-10 at home over Indiana
LOSS at tOSU

Then take a look at their entire season. There is no way Michigan is getting in over the B1G champ. Some would point out a big win over PSU. Yes, a great win. But to be contrarian, the committee also sees that as an early win over an obviously depleted PSU at the time. Win over Wisconsin came at HOME. And was close. (the same logic you are using to trump up Michigan's loss to tOSU) Is the committee going to disregard that fact should Wisconsin win in the championship game? Michigan's is 5-2 without a win of significance since October 1st.

There are tons of pieces to the puzzle but you have to look at all of them. Michigan should be ranked just ahead of Wisconsin and PSU tonight, but will fall behind them after Saturday.

 

[RUforlife]

If I was a voter, I would not vote for Penn State even if they beat Wisconsin by 80 points, I would go public and state that I don't condone child abuse and those institutions that turn a blind eye to such abuse. Being selected to the college playoffs is a privilege, not a right, and Penn State based on their past behavior should not be granted such a privilege.

 

[PSUPOWER]

No, I am looking at their last THREE games. In addition to their resume. Last three games:

LOSS at Iowa
Win 20-10 at home over Indiana
LOSS at tOSU

Then take a look at their entire season. There is no way Michigan is getting in over the B1G champ. Some would point out a big win over PSU. Yes, a great win. But to be contrarian, the committee also sees that as an early win over an obviously depleted PSU at the time. Win over Wisconsin came at HOME. And was close. (the same logic you are using to trump up Michigan's loss to tOSU) Is the committee going to disregard that fact should Wisconsin win in the championship game? Michigan's is 5-2 without a win of significance since October 1st.

There are tons of pieces to the puzzle but you have to look at all of them. Michigan should be ranked just ahead of Wisconsin and PSU tonight, but will fall behind them after Saturday.

A few things are certain:
Clemson is out if they lose to VT.
Oklahoma St at Oklahoma loser is out.
Colorado/Washington loser is out
Penn State/Wisconsin loser is out.

That means that there will be 6 or 7 teams with resumes worthy of national championship consideration left, including Michigan.

It would be nice if we had an 8-team playoff system that would allow them all to compete on the field for the National Championship.

 

[dicemen99]

If I was a voter, I would not vote for Penn State even if they beat Wisconsin by 80 points, I would go public and state that I don't condone child abuse and those institutions that turn a blind eye to such abuse. Being selected to the college playoffs is a privilege, not a right, and Penn State based on their past behavior should not be granted such a privilege.

Well this should effectively kill this thread and end what I considered a fairly interesting debate among posters. Well done, back to business as usual...

 

[RURM85]

That statement just reiterates what I have been saying and refutes what you have been saying. Please read it again.

Thanks !

The language provides for an exception to the norm. The exception is flexibility to select a non-champion (or independent) if the team is "unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country". The author has the same interpretation as I do which places a clear emphasis on winning one's conference over all other criteria.

8 spots selected in 2 years and all 8 have won their CC game (Oklahoma winning their CC). Show me otherwise.