Ron Harper Jr. Killing it in IS8

[willisneverrana43]

. . .

If buzz is based on attendance on a November or December weeknight game during the approaching holidays, then i would agree . . .

Nope. It’s based on ALL the games from the regular season. Every single one if ‘em. Add ‘em up, take the average of the attendance, and then take a cold hard look at reality outside this board. Look at last year’s while you're at it. And then the year before. And the year before that. And the year befire that. And . . .

This board is always good for this kind of inbred “buzz” analysis in the off season. Every off season. And the off season before that. And . . .

 

[RUChoppin]

Attendance by year:
2017-18: 4,759 - Pikiell (15-19)
2016-17: 4,679 - Pikiell (15-18)
2015-16: 4,653 - Jordan (7-25) - Worst win total in 30 years
2014-15: 5,770 - Jordan (10-22) - 1st year in Big Ten
2013-14: 4,425 - Jordan (12-21) - AAC year
2012-13: 4,922 - Rice (15-16) - Mike Rice tape released after season
2011-12: 5,362 - Rice (14-18)
2010-11: 5,602 - Rice (15-17)
2009-10: 5,236 - Hill (15-17)
2008-09: 4,667 - Hill (11-21)
2007-08: 5,176 - Hill (11-20)
2006-07: 5,453 - Hill (10-19)
2005-06: 5,886 - Waters (19-14)
2004-05: 6,808 - Waters (10-19)
2003-04: 6,202 - Waters (20-13)
2002-03: 6,527 - Waters (12-16)
2001-02: 5,802 - Waters (18-13)

Will it rise above 5,000 again this season?

 

[sct1111]

Nope. It’s based on ALL the games from the regular season. Every single one if ‘em. Add ‘em up, take the average of the attendance, and then take a cold hard look at reality outside this board. Look at last year’s while you're at it. And then the year before. And the year before that. And the year befire that. And . . .

This board is always good for this kind of inbred “buzz” analysis in the off season. Every off season. And the off season before that. And . . .

Fans of the program are excited about the future of the program. There has been an obvious improvement in coaching, recruiting and now facilities. You might be right that at this point it is mostly from those who follow the program closely but others are noticing. And we're pretty confident a lot more will be noticing soon when we are beating them.

Seton Hall fans have definitely noticed.

 

[dkostus]

Broad fan notice and attendance is built on faith in all these things.

 

[willisneverrana43]

Attendance by year:
2017-18: 4,759 - Pikiell (15-19)
2016-17: 4,679 - Pikiell (15-18)
2015-16: 4,653 - Jordan (7-25) - Worst win total in 30 years
2014-15: 5,770 - Jordan (10-22) - 1st year in Big Ten
2013-14: 4,425 - Jordan (12-21) - AAC year
2012-13: 4,922 - Rice (15-16) - Mike Rice tape released after season
2011-12: 5,362 - Rice (14-18)
2010-11: 5,602 - Rice (15-17)
2009-10: 5,236 - Hill (15-17)
2008-09: 4,667 - Hill (11-21)
2007-08: 5,176 - Hill (11-20)
2006-07: 5,453 - Hill (10-19)
2005-06: 5,886 - Waters (19-14)
2004-05: 6,808 - Waters (10-19)
2003-04: 6,202 - Waters (20-13)
2002-03: 6,527 - Waters (12-16)
2001-02: 5,802 - Waters (18-13)

Will it rise above 5,000 again this season?

This is a picture of a program with a long history of apathy that has recently bottomed out. I mean, it just is. It’s more than apathy. It’s a sort of wilted apathy. Attendance is historically low. That sound isn’t a buzz. It’s snoring.

Now, sure. Pikiell may be installing a winning foundation of defense, and hard work and preparation. And maybe this incoming class will have a good career at RU. And maybe RU won’t finsh last yet again and will win more that 3 or 4 league games. Maybe. That’d be great.

But right now, there is no buzz about any of this except in the echo chamber of this board, which is really just a sampling of those that make up RU’s historically low attendance numbers.

 

[willisneverrana43]

Broad fan notice and attendance is built on faith in all these things.

Way more than anything else, attendance is based on winning. And by that I mean some sort of sustained winning, not a couple of games or even a winning streak. Lack of attendance is based on losing. Complete apathy is based on sustained losing.

RU Basketball is proof of all this.

 

[rufeelinit]

This is a picture of a program with a long history of apathy that has recently bottomed out. I mean, it just is. It’s more than apathy. It’s a sort of wilted apathy. Attendance is historically low. That sound isn’t a buzz. It’s snoring.

Now, sure. Pikiell may be installing a winning foundation of defense, and hard work and preparation. And maybe this incoming class will have a good career at RU. And maybe RU won’t finsh last yet again and will win more that 3 or 4 league games. Maybe. That’d be great.

But right now, there is no buzz about any of this except in the echo chamber of this board, which is really just a sampling of those that make up RU’s historically low attendance numbers.

The buzz has got to start somewhere so might as well be on this board. IMO the difference in buzz for MBB on this board versus the current situation with football is noticeable. There are legitimate reasons for optimism here versus a lot hope and prayer on the FB board. HC has a track record, better staff who can recruit and new facilities.

 

[RUChoppin]

Way more than anything else, attendance is based on winning. And by that I mean some sort of sustained winning, not a couple of games or even a winning streak. Lack of attendance is based on losing. Complete apathy is based on sustained losing.

RU Basketball is proof of all this.

Mostly. Look at Hill's stretch... in that time, we went 47-77 (.379), but had avg attendance of 5,133. By contrast, Pike has a record of 30-37 (.448), with an avg attendance of 4,719. Pike has to not only bump up the win total, but he has to overcome recent on/off court history that has handicapped efforts to build interest - namely the Mike Rice tape and a 7-win season.

I don't think it'll be an overnight process, but he's making moves to take it in the the right direction. In terms of overall interest outside the die hards, I think the perception of the program is growing more favorable as the prior bad press starts to fade and be replaced by more positive stories.

 

[BigRnj]

Harper redshirt? Only for home games

 

[RUJMM78]

Way more than anything else, attendance is based on winning. And by that I mean some sort of sustained winning, not a couple of games or even a winning streak. Lack of attendance is based on losing. Complete apathy is based on sustained losing.

RU Basketball is proof of all this.

Your comments are spot on.First of all college athletics in NJ lacks the exposure that professional teams receive.Of course there is exceptions to the rule like in 2006 with the win over Louisville in football that had national interest.
In regard to mens basketball bad decisions by previous athletic directors led to lack of financial support ,poor hiring decisions of head coaches and facilities that don't match power conference teams.What fans saw were teams that simply lacked the talent to successfully compete as seen by consecutive losing seasons and no NCAA bid for almost 3 decades.Poor attendance is a natural outcome because sports fans have options as to spending money on leisure activities.The fact Rutgers can't sell out a 8000 seat arena is a telling indicator of lack of positive perception. There simply aren't enough die hard fans to change the status quo.Hobbs and Pikiell are in the process of changing perception on and off the court but that takes time .

 

[AshCatchEm]

This is a picture of a program with a long history of apathy that has recently bottomed out. I mean, it just is. It’s more than apathy. It’s a sort of wilted apathy. Attendance is historically low. That sound isn’t a buzz. It’s snoring.

Now, sure. Pikiell may be installing a winning foundation of defense, and hard work and preparation. And maybe this incoming class will have a good career at RU. And maybe RU won’t finsh last yet again and will win more that 3 or 4 league games. Maybe. That’d be great.

But right now, there is no buzz about any of this except in the echo chamber of this board, which is really just a sampling of those that make up RU’s historically low attendance numbers.

What are you even blathering about right now? There is buzz and for good reason..that is obvious to anyone with half a brain. Among our fanbase , analysts of the big ten, other players and coaches in the big ten etc.

 

[kcg88]

Rutgers also has not played a very attendance-friendly schedule in years. I know it's a broader trend but besides Seton Hall when was the last time we played a ranked team at home in the out of conference schedule? I'm pretty sure it was Florida back in 2012.

Here are our kenpom OOC strength of schedules by year. Counting last year as "2018" even though the OOC games were played in calendar year 2017:

2018: 348
2017: 347
2016: 281
2015: 159 (MSG event with Virginia... we scored 26 points)
2014: 308
2013: 278
2012: 304
2011: 292
2010: 325
2009: 339
2008: 320
2007: 226
2006: 255
2005: 102
2004: 155
2003: 277
2002: 320

It's impossible to build any real buzz when the cycle is the same every year:

1. Load up on low majors.
2. Lose to the one or two solid teams.
3. Lose one or two inexplicable games to low majors.
4. Win 5 or fewer conference games.

At which point are fans supposed to get excited? When we're beating Central Connecticut?

I understand that getting smoked by North Carolina during the Fred Hill years wasn't doing much either but at least it was kind of fun going up against a blue-blood like that.

NJIT, St. Peter's, Fairleigh Dickinson... those games are fine. Every school plays games against local cupcakes. But nobody needs to see Coppin State or Bryant.

 

[willisneverrana43]

Mostly. Look at Hill's stretch... in that time, we went 47-77 (.379), but had avg attendance of 5,133. By contrast, Pike has a record of 30-37 (.448), with an avg attendance of 4,719. Pike has to not only bump up the win total, but he has to overcome recent on/off court history that has handicapped efforts to build interest - namely the Mike Rice tape and a 7-win season.

I don't think it'll be an overnight process, but he's making moves to take it in the the right direction. In terms of overall interest outside the die hards, I think the perception of the program is growing more favorable as the prior bad press starts to fade and be replaced by more positive stories.

Yup. I'll add that it isn't really just Rice. It's the vast majority of the last 25+ years. But I agree that it's eminently fixable.

 

[urbanecane]

This is a picture of a program with a long history of apathy that has recently bottomed out. I mean, it just is. It’s more than apathy. It’s a sort of wilted apathy. Attendance is historically low. That sound isn’t a buzz. It’s snoring.

Now, sure. Pikiell may be installing a winning foundation of defense, and hard work and preparation. And maybe this incoming class will have a good career at RU. And maybe RU won’t finsh last yet again and will win more that 3 or 4 league games. Maybe. That’d be great.

But right now, there is no buzz about any of this except in the echo chamber of this board, which is really just a sampling of those that make up RU’s historically low attendance numbers.

I’m not sure what you are looking for here. Of course this board is hyping the program more than anyone else. That’s how this whole thing works. You win and people start to care.

 

[Scangg]

The excitement level is high? Maybe among a couple dozen of the fans on this board. Everywhere else, RU basketbal is at or near an all time low of excitement and all time high of apathy.

This post is so far detatched from reality I can't tell if it's just to troll or not

 

[dkostus]

Let's get this thread back on topic!

 

[Mr Magoo]

This is a picture of a program with a long history of apathy that has recently bottomed out. I mean, it just is. It’s more than apathy. It’s a sort of wilted apathy. Attendance is historically low. That sound isn’t a buzz. It’s snoring.

Now, sure. Pikiell may be installing a winning foundation of defense, and hard work and preparation. And maybe this incoming class will have a good career at RU. And maybe RU won’t finsh last yet again and will win more that 3 or 4 league games. Maybe. That’d be great.

But right now, there is no buzz about any of this except in the echo chamber of this board, which is really just a sampling of those that make up RU’s historically low attendance numbers.

Sadly, I agree with most of this. Every coach since Young has caused an initial “buzz” around those close to the program except for Littlepage and Jordan.

Wenzel, Bannon, Waters, Rice, Pikiell, and even Hill, who could recruit, but couldn’t coach himself out of a paper bag, appeared to have momentum to “turn the corner”.

None of them did. Pikiell is headed in the right direction in year three but I don’t think we’ll begin to know for sure until the season after this one, when I am hopeful for a winning season.

 

[knights1212]

Pikiell I feel is different than the others. His plan is long term building from rock bottom. I have spoken with him many times and I don't remember any RU coach or staff working as hard as these guys are. Some people just like to be negative and not look at the entire picture. The building process takes time and this years schedule is much tougher but I firmly believe that by 2019-20 our team will be much better. I do not expect miracles this coming season with 7 guys added to our roster who have never played a game for RU.

 

[RutHut]

Sadly, I agree with most of this. Every coach since Young has caused an initial “buzz” around those close to the program except for Littlepage and Jordan.

Wenzel, Bannon, Waters, Rice, Pikiell, and even Hill, who could recruit, but couldn’t coach himself out of a paper bag, appeared to have momentum to “turn the corner”.

None of them did. Pikiell is headed in the right direction in year three but I don’t think we’ll begin to know for sure until the season after this one, when I am hopeful for a winning season.

Practically every fan here already knows this. Why hijack a thread about an incoming recruit having success. I guess apathy craves company.

 

[hiwater]

What are you even blathering about right now? There is buzz and for good reason..that is obvious to anyone with half a brain. Among our fanbase , analysts of the big ten, other players and coaches in the big ten etc.

He is using a myopic view of "buzz" to discount everything else but attendance. There has been buzz about the program created among HS players, coaches, as well as people that cover basketball. Does not recognize that.

 

[RUChoppin]

There's definitely some positive changes to perception to those who are paying attention - but until we start winning consistently on the court, the "masses" won't really be paying attention.

Recruiting successes are great, and are red meat to people like us on the message board - but unless you're pulling in 5* players and getting big media features about a "Fab Five" type program or whatever, recruiting "wins" aren't going to change perception among most people.

Perception is improving right now in places where it's important to improve - such as in the locker rooms of HS programs and at the kitchen table of prospective players. That hasn't translated to an "energized fanbase" yet, but those are key pieces toward getting there. Improve the talent and you improve the product on the court - which means more wins, more excitement, and talk about the post season.

 

[Degaz-RU]

There's definitely some positive changes to perception to those who are paying attention - but until we start winning consistently on the court, the "masses" won't really be paying attention.

Recruiting successes are great, and are red meat to people like us on the message board - but unless you're pulling in 5* players and getting big media features about a "Fab Five" type program or whatever, recruiting "wins" aren't going to change perception among most people.

Perception is improving right now in places where it's important to improve - such as in the locker rooms of HS programs and at the kitchen table of prospective players. That hasn't translated to an "energized fanbase" yet, but those are key pieces toward getting there. Improve the talent and you improve the product on the court - which means more wins, more excitement, and talk about the post season.

It all depends on your definition of "buzz." Willis' definition is very narrow -- i.e., there's only "buzz" if attendance is high and the general public's attention is captured. But there can be "buzz" on a lesser scale.

For instance, I think there is certainly "buzz" within the small community of current Rutgers basketball fans. No doubt about it. Is anybody on this board NOT excited at the rebuilding job Pike has done, the recruiting job he is doing, and the prospects for the future?

And there is some positive buzz among the commentators, coaching community at high schools and AAU, and at other colleges, because they all undoubtedly see what Pikiell is doing here. These people see the progress even though it hasn't yet manifested in a substantial number of wins.

Has that buzz migrated out to the general public? No, not yet. Not until we actually win some games and finish in the top half of the Big Ten. Until then, we will average less than 5,000 fans at the RAC.

 

[MadRU]

Tough to tell how much buzz affects attendance when a large part of the buzz was from the last 3 games played in the garden. These games did not affect attendance numbers.

Without the buzz from the garden, do we get an early commit from Mulcahy?

 

[RUChoppin]

It all depends on your definition of "buzz." Willis' definition is very narrow -- i.e., there's only "buzz" if attendance is high and the general public's attention is captured. But there can be "buzz" on a lesser scale.

For instance, I think there is certainly "buzz" within the small community of current Rutgers basketball fans. No doubt about it. Is anybody on this board NOT excited at the rebuilding job Pike has done, the recruiting job he is doing, and the prospects for the future?

And there is some positive buzz among the commentators, coaching community at high schools and AAU, and at other colleges, because they all undoubtedly see what Pikiell is doing here. These people see the progress even though it hasn't yet manifested in a substantial number of wins.

Has that buzz migrated out to the general public? No, not yet. Not until we actually win some games and finish in the top half of the Big Ten. Until then, we will average less than 5,000 fans at the RAC.

Generally when I hear there is "buzz" around a program, it means that there's excitement that's spreading beyond the core fandom. I don't think we have that yet, really - but I think we're moving in that direction. I think the optimism within the core fanbase is higher than it has been in a while, probably since 2011 - hopefully that translates to wins and continues an upward trajectory.

 

[higgins3]

You had a lot of twitter posters giving shout outs to Rutgers this year. I remember that.

 

[blockm2]

This is a picture of a program with a long history of apathy that has recently bottomed out. I mean, it just is. It’s more than apathy. It’s a sort of wilted apathy. Attendance is historically low. That sound isn’t a buzz. It’s snoring.

I think that'd be an apt description of Rutgers hoops at the end of the Eddie Jordan, but with a new coach in town and some upticks in recruiting and coaching it's possible to consider a light at the end of the tunnel at this point.

Now is Rutgers going to the NCAA tourney next season? Unlikely. They aren't likely to finish in the top half of the conference, they probably won't win 20 games, etc. But they have a coach with a history of winning games (5 straight seasons of 22+ wins at Stony Brook) and are starting to acquire some actual talent. Geo Baker had a nice freshman season. You could see him becoming a pretty good player over the next 3 years. Incoming freshmen like Mathis and Harper could end up becoming nice players as well.

Rutgers has 9 Big Ten victories over the last 4 seasons. That's obviously not pretty. But this next season I could actually see them winning 6 or 7 games (obviously over a 2 game longer season) and not finishing in last place and that's with a young team that could be significantly better the following season.

Rutgers basketball doesn't have buzz right now, but it has some actual potential. Getting rid of Eddie Jordan and hiring a proven coach was the best thing they've done in a long time.

 

[Arizona Knight]

In proper "roster management", if the last spot was filled with a stretch 4 or someone that can knock down jumpers, you ideally would redshirt Harper Jr.

It has nothing to do with his ability or jump he has made from July 2017 to June 2018....if we are fair, he's taken a lot of steps forward but Thiam, Kiss and the last player not yet here, all have the ability to absorb minutes.

Teams rarely play 12 players consistently over 30+ games....and there's minutes for Myles Johnson, Doorson, Shaq Carter and Doucoure to factor in....if the last piece was a player who is starting caliber at the 4-5, then Harper likely plays this year.

The ideal situation is you redshirt him vs wasting a season where he plays less than 10 minutes a game. OR we cut down Thiam minutes because Harper is just more ready than we realize....if that scenario plays itself out this summer where Harper is matching Thiam in workouts, then he plays...if hes not in peak condition to play 20 strong minutes, and Thiam takes a leap forward (and you land a wing grad transfer, etc), then stashing Harper isn't the worst idea in the world.

You would have Harper, Mulcahy and Jacob Young hitting the floor in 2019-2020 and 3 impact players to push RU to the next level. This is a tough league, it's up to Harper, similar to Myles Johnson last year....Johnson could have played some minutes but he now has 3-4 years where his impact is more "game ready"......this isn't HS, its the B1G....he has to prove he's 100% at Thiam's level or better to not redshirt...

Good stuff, Hawk.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

You can immediately tell who actually attended the games at MSG and who didn't from the posters here. As much as watching the games on TV could have been fun if you were out of the area, to say there is no buzz, is an immediate indication on who went to games and who didn't....doesn't make someone who couldn't get to MSG a bad fan etc....i also keep forgetting that we have combination fans....

So i know RU Jets Mets Rangers and Knicks fans in and around the tri-state area....and i can relate to those fans who are doubters or beaten to death by stuff like this.

And i can relate to some fans that are RU Yankees Giants/Eagles/Patriots, Lakers/ and perhaps Rangers/Devils/Flyers and even now Capitals in hockey....the Caps who were never ever going to be relevant, are also now Stanley Cup Champs....same with Eagles/RU combined fans.....it's all mindset.

If you're not a believer in any of your other sports programs/teams/owners or haven't ever seen signs of a turnaround, you sound negative etc....which is OK and explains a lot....

 

[willisneverrana43]

You can immediately tell who actually attended the games at MSG and who didn't from the posters here. . . . .

Can you? Ok, so tell me. Was I there?

 

[blockm2]

You can immediately tell who actually attended the games at MSG and who didn't from the posters here. As much as watching the games on TV could have been fun if you were out of the area, to say there is no buzz, is an immediate indication on who went to games and who didn't....doesn't make someone who couldn't get to MSG a bad fan etc....i also keep forgetting that we have combination fans....

IMHO conference tournaments have a buzz onto themselves so I would not be sure what that would have to do with any particular program. It's a fun weekend of basketball with 14 fanbases present to varying degrees and lengths of time.

 

[Scarlet83]

harper would be best served with a redshirt year, not sure that happens though. He needs to drop about 20 pounds.

Every time you post that Harper might redshirt, I will post that he will NOT redshirt. I will also post that Harper will be a productive addition to this team this year.

 

[anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy]

Every time you post that Harper might redshirt, I will post that he will NOT redshirt. I will also post that Harper will be a productive addition to this team this year.

I dont think he will redshirt but i think he should, redshirt year did wonders for myles johnson getting him in shape

 

[Scarlet83]

I dont think he will redshirt but i think he should, redshirt year did wonders for myles johnson getting him in shape

Very different situations. Myles Johnson was coming off an injury, had to get in much better shape, lose fat, and gain muscle to compete against B1G centers.

Harper Jr needs to get in better shape, sure, but with 4 months of S&C with Coach Van Dyke, Harper has the game to compete against B1G wings. Mark my words. He will be productive this year, so why would we want him to redshirt?

 

[higgins3]

There is very little, if any chance that Harper Jr will redshirt. He can shoot the ball on a team that is in dire need of that skill. Also, he is in a position to fight off another players minutes.

 

[rubaseball78]

This is a picture of a program with a long history of apathy that has recently bottomed out. I mean, it just is. It’s more than apathy. It’s a sort of wilted apathy. Attendance is historically low. That sound isn’t a buzz. It’s snoring.

Now, sure. Pikiell may be installing a winning foundation of defense, and hard work and preparation. And maybe this incoming class will have a good career at RU. And maybe RU won’t finsh last yet again and will win more that 3 or 4 league games. Maybe. That’d be great.

But right now, there is no buzz about any of this except in the echo chamber of this board, which is really just a sampling of those that make up RU’s historically low attendance numbers.

You seem to be putting it on Pike for the low attendance. Coming off the back to back debacles of Rice and Jordan, where did you expect attendance to be? And if you can’t see there is more of a buzz about RU b-ball I don’t know what to tell you. Attendance is usually a lagging indicator.

 

[wheezer]

I dont think he will redshirt but i think he should, redshirt year did wonders for myles johnson getting him in shape

----
if he works out and plays a lot of bb, he will be in good enough shape to help us this year.....tired of waiting

 

[RUChoppin]

There was a lot of buzz around Rutgers' attempts at a Cinderella run in the Big Ten tournament, for sure. Had we beaten Purdue, there would have been a ton of buzz for the final.

The question is whether the buzz during a surprise run in a single elimination tournament with high stakes on the line is going to translate to the regular season or to the program as a whole, or whether it was fleeting situational interest.

 

[dkostus]

The recruits Pikiell is getting commitments, visits and even interest from show that there is a "buzz." While I think you are all having overly semantic arguments about the meaning of the word (I'm a lawyer and this seems over the top even to me, lol) it has to be stated that "buzz" is the initial phase, not the full blown noise... look at the highly sought after kid on campus today and tell me he'd be visiting a last place team if not for some "buzz"...

 

[RUChoppin]

From an overall "Q-rating" perspective, we saw a lift during the tournament, but it remains to be seen if that will continue into the season next year. From a "in the minds of recruits/coaches and core fans" perspective, I think we're definitely in a much better place than we were just a couple of years ago.

 

[AshCatchEm]

I dont think he will redshirt but i think he should, redshirt year did wonders for myles johnson getting him in shape

I thought you'd previously said basketball players that redshirt aren't good