Snow 1/3-1/4? And continued very cold...
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this isnt the classic nor'easter at all, strange set up but yes there is always the possibility of getting a 12-24 inch storm out of this...its small but its still there....widespread probably not but some areas have potential here depending where the banding sets up
that storm in 83 was my favorite. I was in middle school. There was talk about the storm for days and that it could be a big one giving more than a foot but as we got closer to the storm, forecasts were down graded to a 1-3 type event for most. We all went to school, it started snowing at like 9:30AM and I guess news was getting out that this could get ugly, they immediately gave us a half day which was unusual at that time to decide so late, I think the announcement was at 10:30 AM, it was snowing heavily by the time busses dropped us off and we had 3 inches and the tv forecasters just kept up and upping their totals through the night...heard thundersnow for the first time, I think we had about 26 inches in Hillsborough but it was tough to measure. Even the Jan 96 storm didnt top this one as my favorite of all time
Just canceled our President's weekend trip since the first makeup snow day falls on President's Day weekend for our kids' school. Guaranteed all Monmouth County schools will be closed tomorrow.
Seems like a lot of schools are moving away from "Built-in" snowdays as it screws up the end of school year timing. Our school district in PA does the same thing, if school is closed they start losing days off for Presidents' Day, etc.
Nope. Just read the memo:
"Any additional days when schools are closed for emergency purposes will be made up
in this order:
February 16, May 25, June 18, June 19, June 20, June 21, June 22, June 25, June 26"
And our kids said that they don't want to miss school.
LOL....I think I'm in the same district as our calendar says the exact same thing word-for-word.
Watch Lonnie Quinn's forecast tonight....if his sleeves are rolled up we are in trouble.
Yup! Small world! And Bac, the Memorial Day weekend thing acts as a de facto snow day ( we don't build any in due to the potential graduation mess). We've never actually had that Friday off since I've been working in the district because it always snows.
Just got back from my supplier to get salt and CCl. I stopped by the Hillsborough Deli to pick up some coffee and it was all hectic.The MILFs were complaining they need more cream. I'm assuming they need for the coffee.
Biotech (Jr) and Allied Health (Fr.) for us. Which one(s) for you?
We are extremely happy with both schools.
Good article explaining the "bomb" in English - surprisingly from CNBC.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/03/rapidly-intensifying-bomb-cyclone-is-heading-up-the-east-coast.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/03/rapidly-intensifying-bomb-cyclone-is-heading-up-the-east-coast.html
Euro ticked west...up snow totals in line with gfs and canadian..I definitely think you'll see Mt holly up totals to 3-6 for parts of central jersey..maybe 4-8 for eastern sections..and 6-10 dor shore....im making that as my first call based on the model suites
EURO delivers 3-6 north jersey...5-8 south jersey and 6-12 for the coast..if the 3pm run of nam holds expect totals to go up on official forecasts very similar to this output
Well, the NWS went partway to what I thought they might, issuing advisories for the rest of SNJ and watches for all of NYC, but surprisingly, no advisories for Mercer/Middlesex or NE NJ (Union up to Bergen), even though the maps show 2-4" of snow.
And since these were issued, the 6Z NAM (both the 3 km and 12 km NAMs) came out showing 12-20" of snow from 95 eastward and 6-12" within 20-30 miles west of 95 and the hi-res HRDPS (kind of like the 3 km NAM, a high res model0 shows 6-12" from 95 east and 3-6" west of 95, but the 6Z GFS and RGEM only show maybe 2-4" for I-95 and a bit more for the coast. Very hard to make forecasts with model runs like that. Maybe the NAM is just a hiccup or maybe it's on to something. I have no clue. Anyway, here's the map of watches/advisories warnings and snowfall maps are below that. Gotta work today, so not many posts expected unless the 12Z runs look like the NAM.
Quick update - everything is trending snowier in the models. I could leave it at that with some maps, but I can't, lol.
As expected, NWS upgraded the next tier of counties (SW NJ, Philly area in SE PA and Mercer/Middlesex to advisories for 2-4" and I imagine these will be warnings by 4 pm, given continuing snowier model trends with today's 12Z (7 am EST initialization) model runs, especially amongst all of the global models (Euro/UK/GFS). In addition, the actual storm and the players are verifying what the very snowy mesoscale models were saying last night, not what the less snowy globals were saying, which means the globals are likely playing "catch-up" which is why they've moved towards the mesoscale models snowier outputs.
The globals generally went from a 1-3" Philly-NYC event to a 3-6"/4-8" event, while the mesoscale models are showing more like a 6-12" for I-95 or more. And all of the models are showing 25-50% more for the coast and LI vs. Philly to NYC, i.e., 6-12" snowfall, at least is looking very likely for those locations. And, of course, the models are showing maybe 25-50% less for locations 20-50 miles NW of 95, roughly. NWS also upgraded the coastal counties to warnings for 4-8" of snow. Snowfall maps were also updated. Finally, keep in mind that these totals will likely all need to be multiplied by a factor of about 1.5 considering likely~1.5:1 ratios of snow to liquid equivalent precip, i.e., a 4-8" snow would be 6-12" in depth (same mass), since the snowfall maps all assume a 10:1 ratio.
The big question now is whether the global models will continue to move towards the big snowstorm ideas of the NAM and other mesoscale models or not. Jury is out on that, but it's looking very likely that we're at least getting a moderate to significant snowfall starting in the wee hours tomorrow and continuing into the afternoon. A miss is almost out of the question, but after Jan-15, it's hard to say that this couldn't still be a lot less snow. Similarly, a 12"+ snowstorm for almost everyone is on the table, as are blizzard conditions for the coastal areas of NJ/LI, as well as moderate tidal flooding with winds possibly gusting to 40-50 mph near the coast and 30+ mph inland.
Finally, this will all be followed by brutal, record-breaking cold for Friday-Sunday, with wind chills becoming dangerous for Friday, at least. Will post something more on that later.
I'm good for a big storm.The car is safely under 280,and I've got seasons 3-6 of the Sopranos to watch.
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