This is intended to be about Rutgers football, even though there's a fair amount of COVID content to justify why we should have a full RU stadium w/o restrictions, so hopefully it can remain here. Anyway, I've been saying we'd have a full Rutgers Stadium this fall, since at least January, once it became clear we'd have enough vaccines for everyone by about April and would likely start getting close to herd immunity and very low case rates by June. We're there now. In NJ, we have 63% of the population vaccinated (at least one dose), which translates to about 75% of adults vaccinated (at least one dose) and today, Governor Cuomo (and California's Gov Newsom) announced that they're dropping most COVID restrictions in NY, including all restrictions (such as masks or proof of vaccination) on outdoor sporting, entertainment and other events, based on 70% of adults in NY being vaccinated, and I'm sure Murphy wil be doing the same any day now, especially since we have almost 75% of our adults vaccinated (at least one dose) in NJ, and I assume Holloway will follow that up with an announcement of a full Rutgers Stadium (and tailgating) without restrictions. Getting very excited for the season and really hoping we can get to 6 wins and a bowl.
https://www.newyorkupstate.com/coro...vid-rules-mean-for-concerts-sports-shows.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/15/nyregion/coronavirus-restrictions.html
Also, note that "herd immunity," the point at which transmissions would slow to a trickle and eventually stop, has been estimated to be in the range of 70-80% of the population having immunity (from vaccines or past infections) and we're likely around 75-78% of people in NJ who are immune at this point. That comes from the 63% of New Jerseyans who are immune from being vaccinated, combined with another 12-15% of New Jerseyans, who are immune from having had COVID and who were also not vaccinated. This assumes about 1/3 of the 35-45% of the population (or 12-15% of those from NJ), who have already been infected with COVID, have not been vaccinated (similar to the 1/3 of the population who haven't been vaccinated), which means another 12-15% of New Jerseyans are immune, which would bring us to about 75-78% "immune" from either vaccination or infection, which is pretty close to herd immunity.
In addition, both NY and NJ are now officially below the equivalent to 10,000 US cases per day threshold Fauci said would be reasonable to "get back to normal" - this translates to 270 cases/day for NJ (8.9MM vs. 330MM in the US) and about 625 cases/day for NY. NJ's 7-day moving average of cases is now at about 240-260/day and has been below 270/day for almost 2 weeks, while NY's is now at about 625 cases/day, which is right at that threshold. Lifting most restrictions in NY and NJ (and other states with high vaccination rates/low case rates) makes sense at this time with very low cases and fairly high vaccination rates, which will hopefully keep increasing until we get over 80% of adults and those from 12-15 vaccinated, which is doable if enough people believe the science, especially on the incredible safety and efficacy of these vaccines, as per a recent article - and if anyone doubts the science, just look at the link below which notes that 96% of practicing doctors have been vaccinated.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/specia...2&utm_term=NL_Daily_DHE_dual-gmail-definition
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucej...4973590318&utm_campaign=sprinklrForbesScience
Given that we're at 75% of adults vaccinated in NJ, I'd think we're likely going to stay at a very low case level (barring some new variant that eludes the vaccines - unlikely, but possible, which is why we need everyone on the planet vaccinated), and if we maintain very low case levels, I would hope the RAC is fully filled without restrictions come November. We'll see, as large, densely opulated indoor events will be the last places to have mask or vaccination restrictions lifted. As an aside, I think other states, some of which only have 35-45% of their populations vaccinated, are far more likely to still keep experiencing case surges (not like this past winter, but well above the 10,000 cases/day threshold equivalent), which might make it difficult for the US to achieve the overall <10,000 cases/day target, even if many individual states do get there.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/
If anyone is interested, here are my posts from awhile back on some of these points/topics.
1/28/21 post on likely full stadiums: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/ot-vaccine.209080/post-4909220
3/2/21 post on RU "preparing for a normal season": https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/alabama-set-to-play-in-full-stadium.213005/post-4991115
4/16/21 post on Fauci's thresholds and when they'd likely be achieved: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ic-for-returning-to-normal-from-fauci.216340/
5/10/21 post on high RU Admin source and full stadiums: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/spring-game-ticket-email-has-been-sent.217521/post-5107075
https://www.newyorkupstate.com/coro...vid-rules-mean-for-concerts-sports-shows.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/15/nyregion/coronavirus-restrictions.html
Also, note that "herd immunity," the point at which transmissions would slow to a trickle and eventually stop, has been estimated to be in the range of 70-80% of the population having immunity (from vaccines or past infections) and we're likely around 75-78% of people in NJ who are immune at this point. That comes from the 63% of New Jerseyans who are immune from being vaccinated, combined with another 12-15% of New Jerseyans, who are immune from having had COVID and who were also not vaccinated. This assumes about 1/3 of the 35-45% of the population (or 12-15% of those from NJ), who have already been infected with COVID, have not been vaccinated (similar to the 1/3 of the population who haven't been vaccinated), which means another 12-15% of New Jerseyans are immune, which would bring us to about 75-78% "immune" from either vaccination or infection, which is pretty close to herd immunity.
In addition, both NY and NJ are now officially below the equivalent to 10,000 US cases per day threshold Fauci said would be reasonable to "get back to normal" - this translates to 270 cases/day for NJ (8.9MM vs. 330MM in the US) and about 625 cases/day for NY. NJ's 7-day moving average of cases is now at about 240-260/day and has been below 270/day for almost 2 weeks, while NY's is now at about 625 cases/day, which is right at that threshold. Lifting most restrictions in NY and NJ (and other states with high vaccination rates/low case rates) makes sense at this time with very low cases and fairly high vaccination rates, which will hopefully keep increasing until we get over 80% of adults and those from 12-15 vaccinated, which is doable if enough people believe the science, especially on the incredible safety and efficacy of these vaccines, as per a recent article - and if anyone doubts the science, just look at the link below which notes that 96% of practicing doctors have been vaccinated.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/specia...2&utm_term=NL_Daily_DHE_dual-gmail-definition
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucej...4973590318&utm_campaign=sprinklrForbesScience
Given that we're at 75% of adults vaccinated in NJ, I'd think we're likely going to stay at a very low case level (barring some new variant that eludes the vaccines - unlikely, but possible, which is why we need everyone on the planet vaccinated), and if we maintain very low case levels, I would hope the RAC is fully filled without restrictions come November. We'll see, as large, densely opulated indoor events will be the last places to have mask or vaccination restrictions lifted. As an aside, I think other states, some of which only have 35-45% of their populations vaccinated, are far more likely to still keep experiencing case surges (not like this past winter, but well above the 10,000 cases/day threshold equivalent), which might make it difficult for the US to achieve the overall <10,000 cases/day target, even if many individual states do get there.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/
If anyone is interested, here are my posts from awhile back on some of these points/topics.
1/28/21 post on likely full stadiums: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/ot-vaccine.209080/post-4909220
3/2/21 post on RU "preparing for a normal season": https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/alabama-set-to-play-in-full-stadium.213005/post-4991115
4/16/21 post on Fauci's thresholds and when they'd likely be achieved: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ic-for-returning-to-normal-from-fauci.216340/
5/10/21 post on high RU Admin source and full stadiums: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/spring-game-ticket-email-has-been-sent.217521/post-5107075
