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Weather for Akron @ RU: Mild and Humid (mid-70s for highs) w/tailgates looking mostly dry, but some showers possible during the game

Per Dave Curran on TV 12 - we may catch a break with the rain

Apparently first batch of rain will occur late on Friday night thru Saturday morning.

Then second batch of rain starts later Saturday afternoon.

Hopefully rain is nil or minimal between 12-330 ish for the game. 🤞
 
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Well, I'm glad I didn't post last night's 0Z model results, as almost all of them were showing a deluge for Saturday morning/afternoon. Fortunately, today's 12Z models have backed off the precip amounts a fair amount and some are now showing a later arrival of precip, i.e., mostly after about noon and less precip, i.e., maybe 1/4-1/2" (as opposed to 1-2" last night). Problem is we're still ~5 days away and we often see this kind of variability in model runs when there's a potential precip event.

As I said in the first post of the thread, this looks like one of those situations where the forecast won't be locked down until a day or so before the game - especially since RU football fans are notoriously fair weather fans and very small amounts of rain seem to be a problem for many and it's very hard to accurately predict small amounts of rain. And the best guess now (for about 8 am to 4 pm) is we could get small amounts of rain, i.e., 0.1-0.2" or so or we could get substantially more, i.e., 0.5-1" or more. A dry forecast is looking unlikely, although it's still possible. Yes, that's the range of uncertainty at this timeframe.
The trend continues towards later arrival of precip continues on both the models and the various forecasts out there. Specifically, tonight's 0Z Euro and CMC show no precip at all in the morning and then nothing more than a sprinkle or two until after 5 pm Saturday (best case), the GFS and UK both show a few light showers before noon (<0.1") followed by some light to moderate showers through the game (maybe 0.1-0.2" of rain, which is more than nuisance rain), the UK shows and finally the NBM (national blend of models) shows little to no rain before noon, then maybe 0.1" of rain through about 2 pm, then heavier rain (1/4" or so) through 4 pm.

The NWS shows ~30% chance of showers through about 2 pm, the ~50% after that and their discussion says the range of possible outcomes is still pretty wide; Lee Goldberg was also bullish on a pretty dry morning with some showers after that, but the heavier rain towards evening/night-time.

Would be great if we could have a dry tailgate and a mostly dry game, but still way too early to make the call, as it won't take much change in the evolution of the front and the attendant low to either make the tailgates and game pretty rainy or to make them almost completely dry with significant rain holding off until after 4-5 pm. Temps still look to be in the mid to maybe upper 70s for highs and it could get a bit breezy in the afternoon. Stay tuned.

Edit: the NWS just came out with their updated discussion and it seems to reflect what the models were showing above, i.e., a less robust system with little precip in the morning and light showers in the afternoon being possible. Assuming this is correct, it at least means the moderate to heavy rain scenarios are off the table and it also means we have a decent shot at a dry or nearly dry morning/game.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
239 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The first half of the weekend looks unsettled, but things are
starting to become a little more clear. A digging trough that will
eventually become a closed upper level low will move in from the
upper Midwest with a southern stream shortwave coming out of the
Gulf Coast. Most of the guidance now has these systems missing each
other and not phasing which would have resulted in a stronger and
potentially more impactful storm. It is now currently looking like
the area of low pressure associated with the southern stream system
will move offshore of the Outer Banks and out to sea, and the only
rain we see will be from the incoming cold front. There are some
timing differences with the timing of the front but the main window
for showers will be in the afternoon, with a general 40-70% chance
of rain in that time, with the highest chances coming the further
north and west you go from the Philly metro area. There could
be a few scattered to isolated thunderstorms, but with the
marine layer in place, instability will be limited. Shear looks
rather weak too, so as of right now, this Saturday system
appears to be just some beneficial rain. With clouds and showers
around, it will be on the cooler side, with temperatures in the
70s.
 
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9:00 am Cloudy 24 %
10:00 am Few Showers 33 %
11:00 am Showers 45 %
12:00 pm Showers 47 %
1:00 pm Showers 47 %
2:00 pm Rain 60 %
3:00 pm Rain 61 %
4:00 pm Rain 63 %
 
The News12 meteorologist seemed very bullish on a rainy Saturday.
Have never been impressed with the News12 mets relative to folks like Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith, Nick Gregory and Craig Allen, for example. Almost all of today's 12Z models, so far, show little to no rain through about noon, where there is some divergence, as some models are showing occasional showers throughout the game (maybe 0.1-0.2" of rain) and some are showing it staying dry through the game. Confidence is certainly growing for a dry tailgate, but I'd say the game is still a bit of a crapshoot (but trending drier).
 
Have never been impressed with the News12 mets relative to folks like Lee Goldberg, Jeff Smith, Nick Gregory and Craig Allen, for example. Almost all of today's 12Z models, so far, show little to no rain through about noon, where there is some divergence, as some models are showing occasional showers throughout the game (maybe 0.1-0.2" of rain) and some are showing it staying dry through the game. Confidence is certainly growing for a dry tailgate, but I'd say the game is still a bit of a crapshoot (but trending drier).
I'll sign for that. With warm temps, rain during the game doesn't matter as much. Dry tailgate is the key.
 
Yeah, Dave 2.0 was a disaster. Saw them on their 2015 tour in Atlantic City, and holy smokes was DLR a train wreck. Thought Eddie and Wolfie were going to beat him senseless with their instruments.

Sadly, I reference this show often to my friends who are huge VH fans . DLR was simply awful. Game show host. I still listen but that reunion show was horrid
 
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Sadly, I reference this show often to my friends who are huge VH fans . DLR was simply awful. Game show host. I still listen but that reunion show was horrid
Took my then 12 year old son to that show. I told him to ignore the clown with the microphone and admire the musicians with instruments.
 
9:00 am Cloudy 24 %
10:00 am Few Showers 33 %
11:00 am Showers 45 %
12:00 pm Showers 47 %
1:00 pm Showers 47 %
2:00 pm Rain 60 %
3:00 pm Rain 61 %
4:00 pm Rain 63 %
Thank you ! Short , sweet and to the point no long ass BS post.
 
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The trend continues towards later arrival of precip continues on both the models and the various forecasts out there. Specifically, tonight's 0Z Euro and CMC show no precip at all in the morning and then nothing more than a sprinkle or two until after 5 pm Saturday (best case), the GFS and UK both show a few light showers before noon (<0.1") followed by some light to moderate showers through the game (maybe 0.1-0.2" of rain, which is more than nuisance rain), the UK shows and finally the NBM (national blend of models) shows little to no rain before noon, then maybe 0.1" of rain through about 2 pm, then heavier rain (1/4" or so) through 4 pm.

The NWS shows ~30% chance of showers through about 2 pm, the ~50% after that and their discussion says the range of possible outcomes is still pretty wide; Lee Goldberg was also bullish on a pretty dry morning with some showers after that, but the heavier rain towards evening/night-time.

Would be great if we could have a dry tailgate and a mostly dry game, but still way too early to make the call, as it won't take much change in the evolution of the front and the attendant low to either make the tailgates and game pretty rainy or to make them almost completely dry with significant rain holding off until after 4-5 pm. Temps still look to be in the mid to maybe upper 70s for highs and it could get a bit breezy in the afternoon. Stay tuned.

Edit: the NWS just came out with their updated discussion and it seems to reflect what the models were showing above, i.e., a less robust system with little precip in the morning and light showers in the afternoon being possible. Assuming this is correct, it at least means the moderate to heavy rain scenarios are off the table and it also means we have a decent shot at a dry or nearly dry morning/game.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
239 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The first half of the weekend looks unsettled, but things are
starting to become a little more clear. A digging trough that will
eventually become a closed upper level low will move in from the
upper Midwest with a southern stream shortwave coming out of the
Gulf Coast. Most of the guidance now has these systems missing each
other and not phasing which would have resulted in a stronger and
potentially more impactful storm. It is now currently looking like
the area of low pressure associated with the southern stream system
will move offshore of the Outer Banks and out to sea, and the only
rain we see will be from the incoming cold front. There are some
timing differences with the timing of the front but the main window
for showers will be in the afternoon, with a general 40-70% chance
of rain in that time, with the highest chances coming the further
north and west you go from the Philly metro area. There could
be a few scattered to isolated thunderstorms, but with the
marine layer in place, instability will be limited. Shear looks
rather weak too, so as of right now, this Saturday system
appears to be just some beneficial rain. With clouds and showers
around, it will be on the cooler side, with temperatures in the
70s.
We now have pretty good model and forecast consensus on little to no rain through about 12-1 pm, i.e., dry tailgates, outside of a few nuisance sprinkles (maybe 0.01" of rain), followed by showers becoming likely after that during the game, as the front comes through, with ~0.1" of rain through about 4 pm, which isn't heavy rain, but is enough to warrant rain gear for the game.

The NWS hourly graphic, below shows a very sharp cutoff from no rain to showers in the 1-2 pm timeframe, although their discussion does mention a low chance of a few sprinkles in the morning. There is a low chance of a t-storm or two in the afternoon/evening, so there is a non-zero chance of a lightning-induced delay during the game. Considering what we were looking at a few days ago (heavy rain), I'll take it.

FYI, Sunday looks gorgeous, as does all of next week, as we see a significant warm-up by mid-week, with highs likely to be in the mid/upper 80s, although it's not expected to become sultry with only moderate humidity (dewpoints near 60F). Great weather, although we really could use some rain soon.

OlXB2BO.png
 


FYI, Sunday looks gorgeous, as does all of next week, as we see a significant warm-up by mid-week, with highs likely to be in the mid/upper 80s, although it's not expected to become sultry with only moderate humidity (dewpoints near 60F). Great weather, although we really could use some rain soon.

Do you have a source for dew point forecasts a week ahead? My weather app shows an hourly projection but for only a 24 hour look ahead.
 
8:00am Mostly Cloudy 17% 0 in
9:00am Showers 36% 0.01 in
10:00am Showers 45% 0.01 in
11:00am Showers 41% 0.01 in
12:00pm Showers 56% 0.02 in
1:00pm Showers 50% 0.02 in
2:00pm Showers 49% 0.02 in
3:00pm Rain 68 % 0.04 in
4:00pm Showers 55 % 0.02 in
 
8:00am Mostly Cloudy 17% 0 in
9:00am Showers 36% 0.01 in
10:00am Showers 45% 0.01 in
11:00am Showers 41% 0.01 in
12:00pm Showers 56% 0.02 in
1:00pm Showers 50% 0.02 in
2:00pm Showers 49% 0.02 in
3:00pm Rain 68 % 0.04 in
4:00pm Showers 55 % 0.02 in
That’s quite different than no rain for the tailgate…
 
Maybe it will be a "soft day".

It is said in Ireland there are only two kinds of weather days. Soft days and Fresh days. Both mean rain.
 
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