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Weather for MSU @ RU: some light showers likely for tailgates (<0.1") and steadier rain for the game (0.1-0.25")

RU848789

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Unfortunately, there have been signals for a wet weekend next weekend for several days and we're now within the NWS 7-day forecast window (since forecasts beyond 7 days start becoming too inaccurate to rely on) and the models are all showing some version of a coastal low bringing moderate to potentially heavy rainfall all day on Saturday (1-2" of rain possible). Sure, things could change in our favor, but it's not looking good at this point. Temps at least look to be mild with highs in the low/mid-60s.

The NWS isn't usually this pessimistic this far out (see below), which tells me they have fairly high confidence in a significant rain event on Saturday. Our best hope is for the front and low pressure system to either speed up or slow down considerably (the Canadian model shows this, with most of the rain holding off until mid/late afternoon, but the other models show significant rain for the tailgates and game), but that's a big ask. As they saw on the weather boards, we track.

Rain will definitely keep many fans away and would really suck for homecoming, but I kind of think this could play into our run frequently/defend well style of play.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
928 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2023

The main action with the surface low and associated cold front
appears to hold off until reaching our area until Saturday.
There are still considerable timing differences with the
evolution and track of this surface low at this time. However,
an area wide rain event does look likely at this point.

Unfortunately, that means the daunting stretch of rainy
Saturdays looks to continue. At least temperatures late week
into next weekend though, are trending upward near/above our
climatological normals for the middle of October.
 
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That would make five straight weekends with rain... ugh
Sad Heavy Rain GIF by artcedventure
 
We'll be in Hartford for USA - Germany. I'm assuming it's going to be raining up there as well based on the forecast
 
What’s with the pop up ads now in every thread? 😡
I think the mods discussed this on Premium and I just dismissed it. They said you could pay more for Uber Ultra Supreme Premium and have these removed. Just another way for Rivals to make money.
 
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Uggh brining my two young nephews to their first football game ever. I’m sure they will be on even better behavior than I was already planning for.
 
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latest disco

Our attention then turns to the western US as a deepening trough
moves across the Rockies while a strong surface low develops
downwind across the Central Plains. An associated warm front will
start to nose eastward toward the Ohio Valley by Thursday night and
near our area on Friday. With increased moisture advection, shower
chances gradually increase Thursday night with a better chance later
on Friday, especially north and west. Guidance is still in agreement
that the primary surface low and cold front will not reach us until
Saturday. So for now, the heaviest of precipitation should take
place on Saturday where likely PoPs (>55%) have been kept in place.
Beyond this point, both deterministic and ensemble guidance are
simply all over the place, with all sorts of different solutions.
Thus, have opted to stay close to the NBM, with rain chances
lingering into Sunday.

Temperatures on Friday will remain seasonable, but then trend back
below-normal over the weekend with mostly cloudy to overcast
skies.
 
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Someone in our group asked if a game has ever been postponed for a rain event. Does anyone know? I can't think of one.
 
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bummer of a forecast because it’s a pivotal game for RU Football.

A good crowd is probable with a decent forecast since it’s HoCo

I know a lot of people up in NJ who don’t have season tickets , but have Tix to this game

A steady heavy rain will keep most ticket holders home unfortunately
 
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Years ago Rutgers Athletics gave away scarlet ponchos at a game where the forecast, days ahead, was very rainy.
We kept our ponchos in our car’s glove compartment for many years for rain emergencies.
I bet fans get them this weekend. A nice reward from the Athletics Dept for the attendees.
 
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Ace, Dylan and others are supposed to be there. Sucks if the weather is bad for their visits.
 
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Rutgers Temple season opener after Hurricane Ida. Postponed more for the flooding caused by the rain.
Didn't remember that one but I figured River Rd/Johnson Park flooding would be the reason as opposed to just rainfall. We're all pre-warned and ready for Saturday.
 
Rutgers Temple season opener after Hurricane Ida. Postponed more for the flooding caused by the rain.
Yep, that postponement was completely due to record flooding along the Raritan closing numerous local roads - the day of the game was sunny and beautiful in the wake of Ida's remnants. With regard to games being postponed for heavily falling rain, I can't really recall that happening. Games can get postponed for hurricanes (not because of the falling rain, though) or heavy snow/ice, but that's usually because of concerns over putting traveling fans in harm's way. Games often get delayed due to lightning, but rarely cancelled.
 
latest disco

Our attention then turns to the western US as a deepening trough
moves across the Rockies while a strong surface low develops
downwind across the Central Plains. An associated warm front will
start to nose eastward toward the Ohio Valley by Thursday night and
near our area on Friday. With increased moisture advection, shower
chances gradually increase Thursday night with a better chance later
on Friday, especially north and west. Guidance is still in agreement
that the primary surface low and cold front will not reach us until
Saturday. So for now, the heaviest of precipitation should take
place on Saturday where likely PoPs (>55%) have been kept in place.
Beyond this point, both deterministic and ensemble guidance are
simply all over the place, with all sorts of different solutions.
Thus, have opted to stay close to the NBM, with rain chances
lingering into Sunday.

Temperatures on Friday will remain seasonable, but then trend back
below-normal over the weekend with mostly cloudy to overcast
skies.
Models are truly all over the place with timing, placement and intensity of rainfall from late Friday into Sunday, but every major model shows significant rain over large parts of that timeframe, which is why the NWS if going with the NBM (National Blend of Models) for now, showing the worst of the weather being from Saturday morning through Saturday night - we'll need to get a bit lucky to have the rain either start after the game or be over before the game (or have a few hour lull during the game). Having rain probabilities over 60%, six days out means unusually high confidence in rain. We're gonna need a bigger boat...
 
Beyond disappointing. First it's Homecoming! Second it's a game we are favored and one we need to win. Many other side events including all sports Letterwinners Tailgate. Typical homecoming stuff but usually the game where you get to see old friends who only come once a year.
How much rain and when will decide my decision to drive up from Philadelphia.
 
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Beyond disappointing. First it's Homecoming! Second it's a game we are favored and one we need to win. Many other side events including all sports Letterwinners Tailgate. Typical homecoming stuff but usually the game where you get to see old friends who only come once a year.
How much rain and when will decide my decision to drive up from Philadelphia.
Oh and I forgot Big Ten Tailgate will be there too!
 
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