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Weather for MSU @ RU: some light showers likely for tailgates (<0.1") and steadier rain for the game (0.1-0.25")

We have 4 ponchos and will just bring subs and won't set up a BBQ. Let's Go RU. Never melted in the rain and this weekend won't be any different. Worst conditions we ever watched a Rutgers game was that WV game in the snow and sleet, I believe in 2010. We all walked back to the car and my son's future wife was never at a Rutgers game before and never went again, lol. A little rain is no big deal.
 
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We have 4 ponchos and will just bring subs and won't set up a BBQ. Let's Go RU. Never melted in the rain and this weekend won't be any different. Worst conditions we ever watched a Rutgers game was that WV game in the snow and slee, I believe in 2010. We all walked back to the car and my son's future wife was never at a Rutgers game before and never went again, lol. A little rain is no big deal.
Yup. Keep it simple.
 
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We have 4 ponchos and will just bring subs and won't set up a BBQ. Let's Go RU. Never melted in the rain and this weekend won't be any different. Worst conditions we ever watched a Rutgers game was that WV game in the snow and slee, I believe in 2010. We all walked back to the car and my son's future wife was never at a Rutgers game before and never went again, lol. A little rain is no big deal.
I actually felt that the WVU game was one of the most memorable games I have ever been too...absolutely terrible weather but we made the most of it in the purple lot with combined tents with a random group of guys we met. So much fun
 
We have 4 ponchos and will just bring subs and won't set up a BBQ. Let's Go RU. Never melted in the rain and this weekend won't be any different. Worst conditions we ever watched a Rutgers game was that WV game in the snow and slee, I believe in 2010. We all walked back to the car and my son's future wife was never at a Rutgers game before and never went again, lol. A little rain is no big deal.
Gonna say went to a Jets pre-season game years ago. It rained so hard and so long we were in the upper deck front row and our legs were in 2 ft of water. Thankfully it was like 80-85 degrees. Had to have like 4 inches of rain at the game
 
Wow, been out all day in your neck of the woods (disc golf tourney at Thompson Grove Park in Manalapan) and the model shifts with today's 12Z suite are significant and in a positive direction for the tailgates, especially, and even the game, as every model (the Euro, the CMC and the UK), except for the GFS, has no rain in P'way before 1-2 pm (although it's on our doorstep before then), and the GFS has light rain starting around noon. And all of the models "only" have about 0.1-0.2" of rain through about 4-5 pm.

Having said that, it's just one model cycle, which is why I don't think the NWS is biting yet on delaying the onset of steady precip until the early afternoon (they don't like ping-ponging forecasts with every model suite). Below is what they had to say about an hour ago and if we go by the NBM, that is showing 1/2"-1" of rain between 8 am and 8 pm Saturday, which would suck. If the next model cycle sticks with the idea of a later onset of precip, i.e., maybe not much before noon, then that starts to become a more reasonable solution. In fact Lee Goldberg just said that it's possible we'll be able to salvage Saturday morning as being dry. We'll see.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Guidance is still in agreement that the primary surface low and cold front will not reach
us until Saturday. So for now, the heaviest of precipitation should
take place on Saturday where likely PoPs (>55%) have been kept in
place. Beyond this point, both deterministic and ensemble guidance
are simply all over the place, with all sorts of different
solutions. Thus, have opted to stay close to the NBM, with rain
chances lingering into Sunday and Monday. Long story short, the
weekend continues to look wet.
Was out all day again, today (this time poker at Parx all day - retired life, lol) and after catching up, things aren't much clearer with the forecast. We're still seeing significant model disagreement on the evolution of the storm, which will be approaching from the west during Thursday/Friday and then there will be a transfer of energy to a coastal low off VA/NC on Saturday, which will head up the coast.

It's certainly not looking like a washout before noon, with two of the four major global models (Euro and UK) showing little to no rain before 1-2 pm, while two (GFS/CMC) show maybe 0.1-0.2" before noon - annoying for sure, but no deluge and people with canopies at tailgates should do fine. However, the game is looking much wetter with all 4 models showing at least 1/4" of rain and 3 of 4 showing moderate to heavy rain (like 1/2" or more).

See the latest discussion (especially the bold part) from the NWS, below. Most folks don't really care about whether we have zero or 1/4" of rain from 9-11 am vs. 1-3 pm, but, of course tailgaters and game attendees care deeply and right now, forecasting that accurately on an hourly basis is very difficult 4 days in advance.

Two things are a lock though: i) temps will start out mild for an October morning with temps in the low 50s (normally in the mid 40s for lows), but they'll barely rise all day, into the mid/upper 50s vs. typical highs in the upper 60s and ii) we'll have ~10 mph winds most of the day with the gusty winds not arriving until after the game as the coastal low starts cranking.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Surface low pressure is expected to move eastward from southern
Michigan on Friday night, with secondary low development in
North Carolina and Virginia on Saturday. The low is forecast to
move off the coast on Saturday night before making its way out
to sea on Sunday.

It continues to appear as though rain will overspread our
region on Saturday morning, with the greatest potential for some
moderate to heavy rainfall from Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night.
Many locations in our region could receive an
inch or two of rain.
 
I actually felt that the WVU game was one of the most memorable games I have ever been too...absolutely terrible weather but we made the most of it in the purple lot with combined tents with a random group of guys we met. So much fun
Being a snow nut, that was one of my favorite games from a weather perspective. Just wish it had kept snowing during the game, but the snow in the area was crazy with so many trees down from the heavy, wet snow. And of course, I wish they hadn't cleared the field for the faster WVU players, lol. @mildone and his son and I were the only ones from our crew of 14 to go to that game. I didn't wear shorts and a t-shirt to that one.
 
Being a snow nut, that was one of my favorite games from a weather perspective. Just wish it had kept snowing during the game, but the snow in the area was crazy with so many trees down from the heavy, wet snow. And of course, I wish they hadn't cleared the field for the faster WVU players, lol. @mildone and his son and I were the only ones from our crew of 14 to go to that game. I didn't wear shorts and a t-shirt to that one.
it truly was an epic experience as I was there with 4 people and just had a great time
 
it truly was an epic experience as I was there with 4 people and just had a great time

My wife was miserable at that WVU game and we almost left early.
She went into bathroom at halftime and thawed her feet out under the hand dryer.
Came back feeling fine and we stayed the rest of the game.

I'd take snow 100% of the time over rain.
Snow isn't nearly as wet and soaking as rain.
 
My wife was miserable at that WVU game and we almost left early.
She went into bathroom at halftime and thawed her feet out under the hand dryer.
Came back feeling fine and we stayed the rest of the game.

I'd take snow 100% of the time over rain.
Snow isn't nearly as wet and soaking as rain.
Agree on snow over rain, with one of the worst games to attend being the Army game in 2007, where it was a heavy rain and wet snow mix with more rain that snow and the snow that fell melted immediately rather than accumulating, so it might as well have been rain. Basically 32F and as wet as one could imagine. the drive home was more interesting, as the roads home went through higher elevations, where 2-4" of snow had accumulated. Hated that one way more than Temple 2002, where it was probably wetter, but not as cold (temps in the mid-40s).
 
it truly was an epic experience as I was there with 4 people and just had a great time
My brother was in town for that game and to this day those are the most expensive tickets I have ever bought lol. He has extreme weather outdoors skills so there was no way we weren’t going to sit through the whole thing.
 
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I remember freezing my ass off and being so disappointed as the game ended.

Would have been an epic win
 
I remember hearing the sound of tree limbs snapping as driving to the game on 287 south

Also remember Eric leading the team out of the tunnel in that weather, and how RU was up 10 at half only to yet again lose.
 
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There were 2 epic bad weather WVU games - one in torrential rain and the other in the snow. Kind of enjoyed them both.
 
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Agree on snow over rain, with one of the worst games to attend being the Army game in 2007, where it was a heavy rain and wet snow mix with more rain that snow and the snow that fell melted immediately rather than accumulating, so it might as well have been rain. Basically 32F and as wet as one could imagine. the drive home was more interesting, as the roads home went through higher elevations, where 2-4" of snow had accumulated. Hated that one way more than Temple 2002, where it was probably wetter, but not as cold (temps in the mid-40s).
Most miserable game I've ever attended. Absolutely freezing
 
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I can't remember all the wet and cold games between 05-09 but it seemed like it was all the time.
 
So there has been a change in the forecast for Saturday. Chance of rain went from 80% to 90% ugh!
 
Was out all day again, today (this time poker at Parx all day - retired life, lol) and after catching up, things aren't much clearer with the forecast. We're still seeing significant model disagreement on the evolution of the storm, which will be approaching from the west during Thursday/Friday and then there will be a transfer of energy to a coastal low off VA/NC on Saturday, which will head up the coast.

It's certainly not looking like a washout before noon, with two of the four major global models (Euro and UK) showing little to no rain before 1-2 pm, while two (GFS/CMC) show maybe 0.1-0.2" before noon - annoying for sure, but no deluge and people with canopies at tailgates should do fine. However, the game is looking much wetter with all 4 models showing at least 1/4" of rain and 3 of 4 showing moderate to heavy rain (like 1/2" or more).

See the latest discussion (especially the bold part) from the NWS, below. Most folks don't really care about whether we have zero or 1/4" of rain from 9-11 am vs. 1-3 pm, but, of course tailgaters and game attendees care deeply and right now, forecasting that accurately on an hourly basis is very difficult 4 days in advance.

Two things are a lock though: i) temps will start out mild for an October morning with temps in the low 50s (normally in the mid 40s for lows), but they'll barely rise all day, into the mid/upper 50s vs. typical highs in the upper 60s and ii) we'll have ~10 mph winds most of the day with the gusty winds not arriving until after the game as the coastal low starts cranking.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Surface low pressure is expected to move eastward from southern
Michigan on Friday night, with secondary low development in
North Carolina and Virginia on Saturday. The low is forecast to
move off the coast on Saturday night before making its way out
to sea on Sunday.

It continues to appear as though rain will overspread our
region on Saturday morning, with the greatest potential for some
moderate to heavy rainfall from Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night.
Many locations in our region could receive an
inch or two of rain.
Not much change in last night's 0Z models. Best guess is still little to no rain before about 8-9 am, then maybe 0.1-0.2" up through noon, then the rain likely gets a bit heavier with perhaps 0.2-0.4" during the game. Could certainly be a bit more or less during these times, since we're still 3.5 days from the initialization of the 0Z runs last night. NWS discussion from 4 am this morning is below.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Surface low pressure is expected to move eastward through the
midwestern States Saturday with secondary low development in North
Carolina and Virginia by late day. The low is forecast to move off
the coast on Saturday night before making its way out to sea on
Sunday.

It continues to appear as though rain will overspread our region on
Saturday morning, with the greatest potential for some moderate to
heavy rainfall from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Many
locations in our region could receive an inch or two of rain.

As the surface low moves out to sea, rain should taper off into
Sunday. However the lingering mid level trough will keep the chance
of showers in our region through the first part of next week.
 
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um, no.

Looks like a tailgate with tents staked down as soon as you put them up, use the side walls and wear the rain boots and rain suit while tailgating.

there is never a "no tailgate" game.

jeesh
You might not even need the side walls, with total rain up until gametime likely being <0.2" without much wind. Pretty sure we'll be fine with just our canopies (we don't have sidewalls anyway, lol).
 
um, no.

Looks like a tailgate with tents staked down as soon as you put them up, use the side walls and wear the rain boots and rain suit while tailgating.

there is never a "no tailgate" game.

jeesh

Tailgate will be dryer than the game. Thinking I might plan for an in-game tailgate for all the folks in our group who will insist on going into the game only to come swimming out by the end of the 1st quarter.
 
We've got 15 coming (Texas and Vermont the farthest) for a mini-reunion on what was supposed to be the combined Homecoming/Reunion Weekend. Even though the reunion is now Nov 3rd, everybody is still coming and we'll be at the game.

The weather updates are appreciated.
 
So what are the chances this thing slows down enough to not completely ruin the day? Like...dry through the tailgate and light rain during the game? I guess we need about a 4-5 hour "slow down?" And do we need this to happen by tomorrow night/early Friday IF it's going to happen?
 
Being a snow nut, that was one of my favorite games from a weather perspective. Just wish it had kept snowing during the game, but the snow in the area was crazy with so many trees down from the heavy, wet snow. And of course, I wish they hadn't cleared the field for the faster WVU players, lol. @mildone and his son and I were the only ones from our crew of 14 to go to that game. I didn't wear shorts and a t-shirt to that one.
To me the difference in the game was they allowed WVU to have a 10x10 tent to keep their florida-native QB dry on the sidelines. That should not be allowed.. blocking the view of the lower sideline seats nearest them. Of course these days they all have these portable tent things for medical reviews. But then? How was that allowed?
 
Any idea what to expect up in Hartford? Heading up for USA - Germany same day at 3pm
Precip should arrive later in Hartford, so it will likely be dry through early afternoon, but showers become more likely by 2-3 pm and the match will likely be a bit wet (maybe 0.1-0.2" of rain - not a deluge, but certainly will get everyone pretty wet). Likely some heavier rain Saturday evening/night, but not as much as here. That's a best guess - certainly not written in stone.

https://www.weather.gov/box/
 
So what are the chances this thing slows down enough to not completely ruin the day? Like...dry through the tailgate and light rain during the game? I guess we need about a 4-5 hour "slow down?" And do we need this to happen by tomorrow night/early Friday IF it's going to happen?
Well, mostly to completely dry through about noon is already a decent chance, but completely dry after that is pretty unlikely, as none of the models shows that. But we are still 3 days away, so there's a small chance this could move in the completely dry direction through the game, but if we don't see that model shift by tomorrow afternoon, I'd say it's not going to happen. Personally, I'd be ecstatic with <0.1" of rain through 12 pm and 0.1-0.2" of rain during the game.
 
Well, mostly to completely dry through about noon is already a decent chance, but completely dry after that is pretty unlikely, as none of the models shows that. But we are still 3 days away, so there's a small chance this could move in the completely dry direction through the game, but if we don't see that model shift by tomorrow afternoon, I'd say it's not going to happen. Personally, I'd be ecstatic with <0.1" of rain through 12 pm and 0.1-0.2" of rain during the game.
Okay this is about what I assumed and was hoping to hear from you. Still gonna do my "slow down" dance for another 24!!!
 
Well, mostly to completely dry through about noon is already a decent chance, but completely dry after that is pretty unlikely, as none of the models shows that. But we are still 3 days away, so there's a small chance this could move in the completely dry direction through the game, but if we don't see that model shift by tomorrow afternoon, I'd say it's not going to happen. Personally, I'd be ecstatic with <0.1" of rain through 12 pm and 0.1-0.2" of rain during the game.
The .1"-.2" of rain during the game reminds me of the Penn State game at Rutgers several years ago. I think 1/4" of rain fell during the game but it was a moderate, soaking drizzle for the entire afternoon. It just never stopped.
 
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