Weather for MSU @ RU: some light showers likely for tailgates (<0.1") and steadier rain for the game (0.1-0.25")
- Thread starter RU848789
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Remember being at that game well.. As I recall didn’t our field crew clear the snow & ice for a WVU field goal attempt? WTF
If I'm reading the Weather.com Radar right, we could get good news tomorrow.... Fingers crossed
SIAP: aside from all the ridiculous weather West Virginia games in a row - that we had at home - and that Penn State game that was mentioned from a few years ago, wasn’t the worst day of rain, by far, the first home game against Wisconsin? Didn’t that go right through the tailgate and the game itself without stopping? And HEAVY??!!
I remember the message boards blowing up as to why we cleared the field, which in our minds favored WV passing.....
If you're referring to my comment about the Penn State game, I didn't say or even imply that it was one of the worst rain games. It was just wet. From a quarter of an inch of rain.
I didn't say that you had, lol, relax! All good! Was just RECALLING that Wisconsin game and how much worse it was than all those others (to my recollection).
And not a huge change in today's 12Z models, plus we now have precip amounts being forecast by the NWS for Saturday, as we get closer to the event (see the graphic below) Best guess is still about 0.1" of rain from sunrise through about noon, with most of that time being dry, although 0.1" is enough to want to have a canopy for a tailgate, followed by about 0.1-0.25" during the game with the rain being light to moderate and falling most of the time, especially in the 2nd half (but heavy downpours are unlikely). It is still possible that the tailgates are completely dry, but I wouldn't bet that way, although on the plus side, the chances of heavy, flooding rains have gone signifcantly down, so I'd be suprised to see more than 0.3-0.4" of rain during the game.
Temps will be in the low 50s in the morning with highs only making it into the mid-50s in the afternoon; fortunately, winds will be tolerable (~10 mph) through the game, with much windier and rainier conditions holding off until the late afternoon/evening. For those interested, the significant rain looks to be mostly over by sunrise on Sunday, as the coastal low looks to head more out to sea than up the coast, with only some light to moderate showers in the morning (<1/4") and mostly dry in the afternoon with maybe a few passing showers.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.45695963735406&lat=40.52715685114464
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridges in from the north and west Thursday night
through Friday, helping keep the forecast dry to finish the work
week. Expect low temps in the 40s to low 50s at night and highs in
the mid to upper 60s with mid 50s for the higher elevations.
Friday night, low pressure will be moving eastward across the
Midwestern states, increasing cloud coverage and introducing the
chance for some showers. Previous model runs had brought the warm
front across much of the region, but the latest deterministic
guidance is keeping the front further south, somewhere along the
Delmarva and southern NJ or even further south than that. As a
result, much of the region will remain on the cool side of the low
during the morning. A few scattered showers may be possible late
Friday night and early Saturday morning, mainly across northeast PA,
but otherwise, we will stay dry and cool with increasing clouds.
Come daybreak Saturday morning, rain chances will begin to increase
as the mid level trough becomes established over the Midwest and
into the Northeastern US. The primary surface low will trek across
the Ohio River Valley through the Mid Atlantic states while a
secondary coastal low will begin developing across the Carolinas.
Both will eventually merge and begin to shift off the coast Saturday
night. Guidance has continued to become more cohesive with the
development of the system, though some specific timing differences
remain. Regardless, we can expect rain to begin overspreading the
region Saturday morning, gradually marching eastward into the late
morning and early afternoon hours. The greatest potential for
moderate to heavier rainfall will occur Saturday afternoon and into
the nighttime hours. General rainfall totals of one to two inches of
rain are forecasted.
Some good news in that, if it holds. Very little rain and as important very little wind which is great for the low 50s temps on a damp day.And not a huge change in today's 12Z models, plus we now have precip amounts being forecast by the NWS for Saturday, as we get closer to the event (see the graphic below) Best guess is still about 0.1" of rain from sunrise through about noon, with most of that time being dry, although 0.1" is enough to want to have a canopy for a tailgate, followed by about 0.1-0.25" during the game with the rain being light to moderate and falling most of the time, especially in the 2nd half (but heavy downpours are unlikely). It is still possible that the tailgates are completely dry, but I wouldn't bet that way, although on the plus side, the chances of heavy, flooding rains have gone signifcantly down, so I'd be suprised to see more than 0.3-0.4" of rain during the game.
Temps will be in the low 50s in the morning with highs only making it into the mid-50s in the afternoon; fortunately, winds will be tolerable (~10 mph) through the game, with much windier and rainier conditions holding off until the late afternoon/evening. For those interested, the significant rain looks to be mostly over by sunrise on Sunday, as the coastal low looks to head more out to sea than up the coast, with only some light to moderate showers in the morning (<1/4") and mostly dry in the afternoon with maybe a few passing showers.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.45695963735406&lat=40.52715685114464
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridges in from the north and west Thursday night
through Friday, helping keep the forecast dry to finish the work
week. Expect low temps in the 40s to low 50s at night and highs in
the mid to upper 60s with mid 50s for the higher elevations.
Friday night, low pressure will be moving eastward across the
Midwestern states, increasing cloud coverage and introducing the
chance for some showers. Previous model runs had brought the warm
front across much of the region, but the latest deterministic
guidance is keeping the front further south, somewhere along the
Delmarva and southern NJ or even further south than that. As a
result, much of the region will remain on the cool side of the low
during the morning. A few scattered showers may be possible late
Friday night and early Saturday morning, mainly across northeast PA,
but otherwise, we will stay dry and cool with increasing clouds.
Come daybreak Saturday morning, rain chances will begin to increase
as the mid level trough becomes established over the Midwest and
into the Northeastern US. The primary surface low will trek across
the Ohio River Valley through the Mid Atlantic states while a
secondary coastal low will begin developing across the Carolinas.
Both will eventually merge and begin to shift off the coast Saturday
night. Guidance has continued to become more cohesive with the
development of the system, though some specific timing differences
remain. Regardless, we can expect rain to begin overspreading the
region Saturday morning, gradually marching eastward into the late
morning and early afternoon hours. The greatest potential for
moderate to heavier rainfall will occur Saturday afternoon and into
the nighttime hours. General rainfall totals of one to two inches of
rain are forecasted.
I’m feeling better and better about this. The current report, if it holds as is, really shouldn’t deter people from showing up to tailgate or go to the game. Remember, it’s homecoming, you have people coming here for a reason - lots and lots of people who only come to one game a year and have had plans - big tailgate’s, tix, etc - for a long time. This is typically not a game loaded with the “casual” fan who has little-or-no ties to the school other than living in Jersey.
Now, that being said, another 24 hours of “SLOW THE **** DOWN” rain dancing can’t hurt!!!
Now, that being said, another 24 hours of “SLOW THE **** DOWN” rain dancing can’t hurt!!!
Those chances of rain are somewhat misleading, since outfits like the NWS and many others (especially apps), when they do their very short high level forecasts, don't have enough space to include key details and that matters for an event like this. Just look at the high level forecast vs. the detailed hourly forecast, below.
The high level forecast simply says an 80% chance of precip with 1/4-1/2" of precip possible for "Saturday" (where that means 6 am to 6 pm Saturday), but the detailed forecast reveals that the chance of precip is 15% from 6-7 am, increasing to 54% from 8 am to 1 pm and then further increasing to 80% from 2 pm to 6 pm, which is far different from just saying 80%.
Similarly 1/4-1/2" of rain for "Saturday" (again, 6 am to 6 pm) makes it sound like it's probably raining throughout that period, but that's not the case. Looking at the hourly graphic, one can see that the precip forecast is for no rain before 8 am, then 0.13" of rain from 8 am through 2 pm and then 0.45" from 2 pm through 8 pm.
So while the high level forecast sounds terrible for all of Saturday, the reality is that the detailed forecast for the early morning (before 8 am) is dry and the forecast from 8 am to 2 pm isn't terrible (a little more than 0.1" of rain), while the forecast from 2-8 pm is pretty crappy with nearly 1/2" of rain.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.45695963735406&lat=40.52715685114464
Saturday
Rain, mainly after 2pm. High near 56. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain in the forecast will keep 10-15k away easily
Peeps on this board represent just a small number fans....any rain falling after 9 will have a significant impact on everything..from tailgating to boardwalk to homecoming activities to in the stadium itself
I dont know what to tell you if you believe peeps want to stand in the rain
We have a large amount of fans that leave at halftime on a NICE day
Wisconsin ho.ecoming in 2014 was dreadful...started out just a bit of drizzle but got bad inside
Of course the team and Flood shit the bed..a no show for the ages and fans left in the soaking rain after enduring 37-0 beatdown
F the rain! We have 15 people coming, I have 4 from Ohio, 3 from Florida and meeting the rest for a mini family reunion. Still trying to score a blue lot (we have 1 that’s not a big enough foot print). But regardless I’m pumped and idgaf how much rain I’ll be standing out there with a beer in my hand! GO RU! My thoughts are if a little rain scares you away you’re a little whimp. LOL 😆
Brutal, lol. Played about 6 hours at the $6-12 Omaha/7-card stud high/low table (alternating 30 min sessions of each game) and lost about $350. Just one of those sessions with terrible cards, so I was folding probably 90% of hands before the flop (or after the first 3 in stud), where normally I might fold 70% or even less and the hands I was in, with very good cards to start, typically went south and people caught up to me and beat me on the last card, meaning I lost a fair amount on hands like that, as I play very aggressively when I have the likely best hand (especially if it's also a good drawing hand). In that 6 hours, I did not once have a "lock" low in Omaha and didn't get any full houses in Omaha or stud, plus not even one straight or flush in stud. Bad cards - probably should've lost more really.
Perfect example of this was twice in the last 30 minutes in Omaha, when I had a high pair out of my 4 cards and I hit top set on the flop to be absolutely in the lead on the high hand, plus the flop only had one low card in each hand, so the odds of getting a low hand were low...and people in front of me bet on that flop and I raised, of course. Unfortunately, in both cases, players played for a low percentage low hand to come in (I also had low draws in each), and the 4th card up in both hands was a 9, meaning a low wasn't possible, but I still had 1-2 players staying for the river and in both cases a player hit an inside straight with no other draw to beat my trips. Both hands had about $250 in them and ~90% of the time I should have scooped them. One is always going to have sessions like this - probably a 3-sigma deviation from the mean in card quality.
The Wisconsin game was POURING during the tailgate. I actually brought it up earlier.
I just don't know where you come up with this "10-15,000" will stay home stuff. It's your OPINION, which is fine, but it's also why I said "okay." Just not worth arguing.
Unfortunately, I agree we have a pretty fair weather fanbase. I'd guess we'll lose 10K fans from the stadium vs. what we'd have on a nice day (assuming the same number of tix sold in both cases). We're just not good enough yet for some people to want to sit through some rain to watch the game. I hope I'm wrong. And if the forecast goes a bit south of what most pros are thinking now, i.e., if we get 1/4" of rain before noon, we'll lose even more than 10K. Best hope is minimal rain before noon, so that people at least go into the stadium and once there maybe most will stay.
Yes rain impacts attendance...we have a diehard base of 20k but rely on general public to fill the rest..homecoming or not. I have 30 years plus experience of watching these events as proof
There are models like NAM that don't even have alot of rain
The issue tho is rain will be in the forecast and most people dont dig deeper
Best thing would it to be dry before kickoff...its psychological. Once it starts raining while you are in your seats its easy. Its much harder for people to stay home if its raining at 8am and you have take a long walk in the rain from the outer lot only to sit in a wet seat
Yes people do not dig deeper. The presentation by website's and the media forecast days ahead just screams washout. It happened a few Saturdays ago. The morning was a washout but then we had a 7 hour dry slot all afternoon.
The 18Z NAM would be a miracle, lol - no rain at all through 5 pm Saturday, although it's alone in showing that...but it is true that the start of the rain is a bit later than it was a day or two ago and the amount of likely rain for tailgates and especially the game are also less than thought a day or two ago. Right now, none of the NAM, GFS, Euro or RDPS at 18Z (just out) shows anything more than a few sprinkles through 2 pm and not much more through 5 pm (maybe 0.1-0.2" much of which likely falls after 3 pm). If we see that kind of output with another model cycle tonight at 0Z and beyond, the NAM will have scored quite a coup. But let's see what happens first.
I just updated the thread title to tone down the rain threat a bit...
Talk about how the blocking is keeping this development more south. The NAM gives us a glimmer of hope we can thread the needle
A
Now....HOPEFULLY.....most who ARE "teetering" right now will see the improvement in the reports tomorrow and Friday and we'll be good to go SOOOOO.....still doing my "slow the **** down" rain dance!!!!
BTW - I'm not saying people WILL NOT stay home, however, I think 10-15K is REALLY a big #
AGAIN I would NOT compare Homecoming to any other game. Very, very different crowd outside of season ticket holders and students (as compared to what you typically would get at a home game). MUCH HIGHER % of alumni and their families who have had plans for a year and will "suck it up" in rain that isn't torrential downpours all day long.
Now....HOPEFULLY.....most who ARE "teetering" right now will see the improvement in the reports tomorrow and Friday and we'll be good to go SOOOOO.....still doing my "slow the **** down" rain dance!!!!
BTW - I'm not saying people WILL NOT stay home, however, I think 10-15K is REALLY a big #
Fair point on Homecoming having a crowd more likely to suck it up in some light rain. And no reason to stop doing your dance, lol...
Yup, was at both and remember them each well. My canopy collapsed during the snow game from the weight of it.
Uhm.....how about we go with something NOT about masturbation???
(and if you say "It's Raining Men" we're gonna have a problem buddy!!!!
)
Nothing to do with the weather forecast, but Carli Lloyd will be the special guest on Big Ten Tailgate show on Big Ten Network Saturday.
I have shared multiple pictures in multiple threads. Still have them saved out of pure Shock and awe.
I don't need to know the details of your dancing routine. TMI bro lol. Just gotta keep on dancing. It's working! Make sure you close the curtains on your windows though! 🤣Uhm.....how about we go with something NOT about masturbation???
(and if you say "It's Raining Men" we're gonna have a problem buddy!!!!
