Weather for MSU @ RU: some light showers likely for tailgates (<0.1") and steadier rain for the game (0.1-0.25")
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
I have my ponchos ready to go. I'll be there rain or shine! Home wins, especially home Big Ten wins, have been a rarity and this is a golden opportunity for one...
Apple weather app now shows the rain starts at 4pm.
Weather Underground
| Time | Conditions | Temp. | Feels Like | Precip | Amount | Cloud Cover | Dew Point | Humidity | Wind | Pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 am |
| 48 °F | 48 °F | 15 % | 0 in | 88 % | 42 °F | 77 % | 1 mph N | 29.92 in |
| 8:00 am | 
| 49 °F | 49 °F | 37 % | 0.01 in | 87 % | 43 °F | 81 % | 1 mph NNW | 29.92 in |
| 9:00 am |
| 51 °F | 51 °F | 42 % | 0.01 in | 88 % | 44 °F | 78 % | 1 mph NNE | 29.91 in |
| 10:00 am |
| 52 °F | 52 °F | 33 % | 0.01 in | 87 % | 45 °F | 74 % | 2 mph NNE | 29.90 in |
| 11:00 am |
| 54 °F | 54 °F | 44 % | 0.02 in | 86 % | 45 °F | 70 % | 2 mph NNE | 29.89 in |
| 12:00 pm |
| 55 °F | 55 °F | 56 % | 0.02 in | 94 % | 46 °F | 72 % | 2 mph NNE | 29.86 in |
| 1:00 pm |
| 55 °F | 55 °F | 57 % | 0.02 in | 95 % | 47 °F | 73 % | 3 mph N | 29.84 in |
| 2:00 pm | 
| 55 °F | 55 °F | 66 % | 0.03 in | 100 % | 48 °F | 76 % | 4 mph NNE | 29.81 in |
| 3:00 pm |
| 55 °F | 54 °F | 72 % | 0.03 in | 100 % | 48 °F | 77 % | 4 mph NE | 29.79 in |
| 4:00 pm |
| 54 °F | 54 °F | 79 % | 0.04 in | 100 % | 48 °F | 79 % | 4 mph NE | 29.77 in |
There is absolutely no reason to be hesitant about tailgating and enjoying homecoming before an important game. And it looks like rain won’t be a huge issue during the game. Get to the game if you’re on the fence!
Pump the brakes! It's definitely trending better but to tell people "there is absolutely no reason" to tailgate and go to game is a completely stupid statement unless you're GOD. Stop telling people what to do! We all will make up are own minds! A lot can change. Our first Big Ten home game is a perfect reminder about how things can change in the morning.
White Bus is in argue mode again. Just trying to be positive not trying to tell people what to do. I love how you tell me to stop telling people what to do. Because that’s what I do here all the time… 🙄
Im
Besides you are preaching to the wrong crowd.
Not in argue mode at all. Was funny you trying to predict the weather and telling everyone with certainty that it isn't going to rain for the tailgate and game, telling everyone to "get to the game"
Besides you are preaching to the wrong crowd.
Ease up, boys. It's "Homecoming"! And we have a game with meaning, an a very winnable one at that....
Just said if you are on the fence the weather won’t be that bad. And seriously, I’m just trying to encourage people. Do you honestly think people feel pressure based on what one poster says? Honestly, you bring a lot of good posts/content to the board, but when you go into argue mode (and everyone here has witnessed it) you are garbage.
I agree it's too soon to declare "victory" for a dry tailgate or mostly dry game, as there is still about 48 hours to go (from when today's models initialized), so it's too easy to get burned...but having said that, the chances of major shifts 2 days out are far less than 4-6 days out, i.e., the uncertainty on the forecast, now, is much lower...so we got that goin' for us. I also think RUPete was just trying to be positive about a big game...
As I said I'm not in an argument mode. I'm actually laughing at your stupidity playing GOD.
Like I said, things change. The Penn State game years ago is the perfect example.
Besides he included the game. That isn't what is being forecasted currently. There is a much higher probability to rain during the game..
And again he is preaching to the wrong crowd.
Playing GOD? What is wrong with you? You made an ass of yourself, take the L. You always do this when you go into argue mode. 😂
Look at that, the info everybody wants in one sentence, not a War and Peace novel,lol
It’s definitely too early to say. My weather app now says 80% rain and starts at 11am. It was 50% and 4pm couple hours ago.
Weather.com now predicts the rain starts at 8am.
Weather.com now predicts the rain starts at 8am.
True, that's what everyone "wants" but that's unlikely to happen and it's more than a little complicated to explain why, requiring words and stuff.
Everyone thinks their weather app is right. I’m going with the triple alum.
By my eye, it looks like the latest 0Z models, which just came out, may have ticked back slightly wetter than those from earlier today (see the rainfall summaries below), but would only expect, at most, minor nudges up in rainfall from the 4 pm forecast.So, the NWS-Philly discussion sounds a bit less wet than this morning's discussion, but the NWS hasn't updated their hourly weather grids yet, so we don't have updated rainfall forecasts - although they were predicting close to 2" of rain overall for all of CNJ this morning and the text below says 1-1.5" amounts for CNJ, so I'm hopeful the rainfall forecast is going to decrease (it did for adjacent Union County and Staten Island, which are overseen by the NWS-NYC). I'm especially hoping they decrease the rainfall for 8 am to 2 pm in P'way from 0.27" this morning to about 0.1", which is what the NWS-NYC is showing for Union/SI (but I still think they'll show up to 1/4" of rain for the game). That would likely mean little to no rain before noon for tailgates. Will update this post when the hourly grids get updated.
Edit: good news from the NWS, as they significantly lowered their P'way rainfall forecast from 8 am to 2 pm from 0.27" of rain to 0.03" of rain. And they decreased from about 1" from 2 pm to 8 pm to ~0.3" which likely means just light rain for the game. Can't lock that in yet, but a nice move.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
334 PM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023
An eastward moving surface low in Ohio on Saturday is expected
to transfer its energy on Saturday night to another low moving
up the Southeast and Middle Atlantic Coasts. The combined system
will likely move out to sea quickly on Sunday.
Moisture from the west and south is forecast to overcome the
dry air in our region on Saturday morning. As a result, cloud
bases should lower and rain will likely begin to overspread our
area. The rain is expected to become moderate to heavy at times
from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as the lift and
energy from the low approaching from the west passes over and
through our region, producing a good amount of lift. The mid
level trough should then bring an end to the steady rain on
Sunday morning as it passes overhead. Showers are forecast to
linger into Sunday morning, with some dry air arriving from the
north in the afternoon.
The axis of the heaviest rain in our region continues to shift
a bit with each set of model runs. Presently, it seems to be
focused on southeastern Pennsylvania, central and southern New
Jersey, Delaware and eastern Maryland. Widespread 1.0 to 1.5
inch totals are expected with locally higher amounts possible.
The steady rain should fall over a 12 to 18-hour period, so
there may be no more than some spotty flooding in areas of poor
drainage.
The rain and cloud cover will likely keep temperatures cool.
Afternoon readings should favor the 50s and lower 60s on
Saturday and Sunday. An easterly wind 5 to 10 MPH on Saturday is
expected to become northerly 10 to 15 MPH on Sunday.
If I had to guess, maybe the NWS will increase the rain from 0.03" from 8 am to 2 pm to 0.1-0.15" from 8 am to 2 pm (was 0.27" at 4 am yesterday), most of which would fall after about 11 am to noon, so mostly dry tailgates, but perhaps with a few light showers (maybe like the 0.03" that fell from 10:00 to 10:30 before the Wagner game), so canopies would probably still be recommended.
Similarly, the models are generally showing a touch more rain from 2 pm to 8 pm (in the 0.3-0.6" range vs. about 0.3" predicted from 2-8 pm at 4 pm today by the NWS (meaning about 1/3 of that might fall from 2-4 pm or about 0.1-0.2"). So clearly not as much as we saw forecasted at 4 am (~1" forecasted from 2 pm to 8 pm) but maybe a touch more than forecasted at 4 pm today. Not a deluge during the game, but enough to warrant rain gear for most. We'll find out in about 2 hours what the NWS thinks. In case anyone is curious, here's what the 0Z models show (too much work to copy/paste all the graphics, lol)...
- The Euro shows about 0.1" of rain through 11 am, then another 0.1-0.2" through 2 pm and another 0.2" through 5 pm - it's the wettest model right now.
- The GFS shows maybe 0.02" through 11 am, then about 0.1-0.2" through 2 pm and 0.3" through 5 pm.
- The CMC shows very little through 11 am, then about 0.1" through 2 pm and about 0.2-0.3" through 5 pm.
- The UK shows very little through 11 am, then maybe 0.1" through 2 pm and about 0.1-0.2" through 5 pm.
- The NAM shows no rain through 11 am, then about 0.1" through 2 pm and about 0.1-0.2" through 5 pm.
- And the RDPS shows no rain through 11 am, then about 0.1" through 2 pm and about 0.1-0.2" through 5 pm.
- Finally, the NBM (national blend of models, which the NWS often relies on) still only shows about 0.05" through 2 pm, meaning very likely dry tailgates, and shows only about 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm. Would settle for this right now.
I have to say I'm surprised and not ready to buy into that dry of a forecast, given that at least half of the models show at least 0.05" through 11 am and at least 0.1" through 2 pm. I know they're the experts, but hard to completely ignore the models...also, the 6Z models just came out and the Euro/GFS show 0.1-0.2" from 11 am to 2 pm (with very little before that), while the NAM/RDPS show <0.05" through 2 pm (and nada from the NAM). The problem is we're discussing relatively tiny amounts of rain, and forecast accuracy is typically worse than +/-0.1" of rain, so we could easily see 0 to 0.2" of rain from 8 am to 2 pm and it would still be a pretty good forecast with 0.01" predicted. But that tiny difference is huge to tailgaters and fans. Tough one. Here's the NWS discussion from 4 am this morning...and it's also worth noting that after 1" or so of total rain, significant rain should be over by sunrise on Sunday with Sunday being a decent day with just a few light showers in the morning and some sunshine by late morning (but cool and windy).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Storm system still on the way to bring the area wet weather for
Saturday and Saturday night but the rain should mostly come to an
end early Sunday. In terms of the specifics, primary area of low
pressure driven by a fairly strong disturbance aloft will be moving
eastward across Ohio Saturday morning while weakening. This will
give way to a secondary low forming by late day near the coast of
North Carolina and Virginia. Expect that rain associated with this
system will move in west to east mostly around the late morning to
early afternoon time frame which is a slightly later start time than
it was looking like a day or two ago. The rain should then become
moderate to heavy at times by late afternoon through the evening as
the coastal low strengthens just to our south near the left exit
region of a 130 knot upper level jet core. There may even be some
embedded thunder during this period over Delmarva into southern NJ
due to some elevated instability. It is this area northward into the
urban corridor of SE PA where the rain will likely be the heaviest
due in part to the elevated instability, high PWAT values, and deep
layer lift being the strongest.
Last edited:
FYI, I just added a detailed edit to my post above from 2 am (also quoted above), to keep all the info in one place. Briefly the NWS continues with the idea of very little rain (0.01") before 2 pm, which would mean dry tailgates and even a mostly dry first half, followed by maybe 0.1" for the 2nd half. This is despite some models showing 0.1" or more through 2 pm and another 0.1-0.2" from 2 pm to 5 pm, so don't put away the canopies or rain gear yet. Lots more details above...By my eye, it looks like the latest 0Z models, which just came out, may have ticked back slightly wetter than those from earlier today (see the rainfall summaries below), but would only expect, at most, minor nudges up in rainfall from the 4 pm forecast.
If I had to guess, maybe the NWS will increase the rain from 0.03" from 8 am to 2 pm to 0.1-0.15" from 8 am to 2 pm (was 0.27" at 4 am yesterday), most of which would fall after about 11 am to noon, so mostly dry tailgates, but perhaps with a few light showers (maybe like the 0.03" that fell from 10:00 to 10:30 before the Wagner game), so canopies would probably still be recommended.
Similarly, the models are generally showing a touch more rain from 2 pm to 8 pm (in the 0.3-0.6" range vs. about 0.3" predicted from 2-8 pm at 4 pm today by the NWS (meaning about 1/3 of that might fall from 2-4 pm or about 0.1-0.2"). So clearly not as much as we saw forecasted at 4 am (~1" forecasted from 2 pm to 8 pm) but maybe a touch more than forecasted at 4 pm today. Not a deluge during the game, but enough to warrant rain gear for most. We'll find out in about 2 hours what the NWS thinks. In case anyone is curious, here's what the 0Z models show (too much work to copy/paste all the graphics, lol)...
8 am Edit: turns out my prediction of what the NWS would say was way off, in a good way, as they actually slightly reduced rainfall amounts for the start of the storm from 0.03" to 0.01" during the 8 am to 2 pm timeframe, which would mean dry tailgates and just a little bit of rain in the early part of the game. They also have about 0.3" for the 2 pm to 8 pm timeframe, which would mean roughly 0.1" from 2-4 pm - more than nuisance rain, but not heavy rain.
- The Euro shows about 0.1" of rain through 11 am, then another 0.1-0.2" through 2 pm and another 0.2" through 5 pm - it's the wettest model right now.
- The GFS shows maybe 0.02" through 11 am, then about 0.1-0.2" through 2 pm and 0.3" through 5 pm.
- The CMC shows very little through 11 am, then about 0.1" through 2 pm and about 0.2-0.3" through 5 pm.
- The UK shows very little through 11 am, then maybe 0.1" through 2 pm and about 0.1-0.2" through 5 pm.
- The NAM shows no rain through 11 am, then about 0.1" through 2 pm and about 0.1-0.2" through 5 pm.
- And the RDPS shows no rain through 11 am, then about 0.1" through 2 pm and about 0.1-0.2" through 5 pm.
- Finally, the NBM (national blend of models, which the NWS often relies on) still only shows about 0.05" through 2 pm, meaning very likely dry tailgates, and shows only about 0.1-0.2" from 2-5 pm. Would settle for this right now.
I have to say I'm surprised and not ready to buy into that dry of a forecast, given that at least half of the models show at least 0.05" through 11 am and at least 0.1" through 2 pm. I know they're the experts, but hard to completely ignore the models...also, the 6Z models just came out and the Euro/GFS show 0.1-0.2" from 11 am to 2 pm (with very little before that), while the NAM/RDPS show <0.05" through 2 pm (and nada from the NAM). The problem is we're discussing relatively tiny amounts of rain, and forecast accuracy is typically worse than +/-0.1" of rain, so we could easily see 0 to 0.2" of rain from 8 am to 2 pm and it would still be a pretty good forecast with 0.01" predicted. But that tiny difference is huge to tailgaters and fans. Tough one. Here's the NWS discussion from 4 am this morning...and it's also worth noting that after 1" or so of total rain, significant rain should be over by sunrise on Sunday with Sunday being a decent day with just a few light showers in the morning and some sunshine by late morning (but cool and windy).
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Storm system still on the way to bring the area wet weather for
Saturday and Saturday night but the rain should mostly come to an
end early Sunday. In terms of the specifics, primary area of low
pressure driven by a fairly strong disturbance aloft will be moving
eastward across Ohio Saturday morning while weakening. This will
give way to a secondary low forming by late day near the coast of
North Carolina and Virginia. Expect that rain associated with this
system will move in west to east mostly around the late morning to
early afternoon time frame which is a slightly later start time than
it was looking like a day or two ago. The rain should then become
moderate to heavy at times by late afternoon through the evening as
the coastal low strengthens just to our south near the left exit
region of a 130 knot upper level jet core. There may even be some
embedded thunder during this period over Delmarva into southern NJ
due to some elevated instability. It is this area northward into the
urban corridor of SE PA where the rain will likely be the heaviest
due in part to the elevated instability, high PWAT values, and deep
layer lift being the strongest.
Looks like the wind speeds should remain below 10 mph, which should make FGs easier! 😬
MSU's stats suggest that their offense is better passing than running, with RU's offense being the opposite. Rain may help.
And why would this day be different than any other day ?
For what it's worth, I saw on "X" yesterday
"Michigan State QB Katin Houser expected to see some playing time vs. Rutgers. It's unclear if he'll start or play the whole game."
I figured since the other guy was throwing picks all over the place. He's a four star and according to GS, a big guy but more of a pocket passer than the original starter.
I just checked StubHub and pairs of tickets are going for as low as $8. There is a pair for sale in Section 117 (lower level) for $9 each and another set of three in 112 for $10. Wow.
Clearly, the weather forecast is having an impact and it's not like there weren't already severe attendance issues anyway. The stadium was a ghost town for the Wagner game and that was on a beautiful day.
Clearly, the weather forecast is having an impact and it's not like there weren't already severe attendance issues anyway. The stadium was a ghost town for the Wagner game and that was on a beautiful day.
Hi Malissa another screen name I see, how many is that now????
Severe is an overstatement, TSopranoRU (the was one of your old screen names, right?)
But yeah, a large chunk of the fanbase is fairweather (literally and figuratively) as well as soft.
No it's really not. The stadium wasn't close to half-full for a 3:30 p.m. home game on a beautiful day to watch a 4-1 Rutgers team. Yes, the opponent was terrible but from 2005-2012ish, there were much bigger crowds no matter who we were playing.
I don't think casual fans will have any interest in Rutgers football until there's another winning season. I'm not talking about 6-6 with a bowl loss, either. An actual winning season.
