Sunday actually looks mostly dry with some sunshine and just a chance of a few showers in the AT section of CT.
There's that, plus there was supposed to be an upper level low phasing to some extent with the coastal low, slowing it and drawing it more northward, but that's now unlikely to happen, allowing the coastal low to stay further south, meaning likely less rain for our area on Saturday and little rain for our area on Sunday. DT/WxRisk does a nice job of explaining this in detail in the link below...
Thanks. Sunday is travel/move in day. Hiking begins Monday and concludes next Saturday, by noon, in time for RU v Indiana, at a watering hole in Great Barrington MA.
C'mon, we are playing the team formerly coached by a guy who ADMITTED to the world he masturbated on the phone with the consultant hired to teach his players about accountability to women. How about:Uhm.....how about we go with something NOT about masturbation???
(and if you say "It's Raining Men" we're gonna have a problem buddy!!!!)
And not a huge change in today's 12Z models, plus we now have precip amounts being forecast by the NWS for Saturday, as we get closer to the event (see the graphic below) Best guess is still about 0.1" of rain from sunrise through about noon, with most of that time being dry, although 0.1" is enough to want to have a canopy for a tailgate, followed by about 0.1-0.25" during the game with the rain being light to moderate and falling most of the time, especially in the 2nd half (but heavy downpours are unlikely). It is still possible that the tailgates are completely dry, but I wouldn't bet that way, although on the plus side, the chances of heavy, flooding rains have gone signifcantly down, so I'd be suprised to see more than 0.3-0.4" of rain during the game.
Temps will be in the low 50s in the morning with highs only making it into the mid-50s in the afternoon; fortunately, winds will be tolerable (~10 mph) through the game, with much windier and rainier conditions holding off until the late afternoon/evening. For those interested, the significant rain looks to be mostly over by sunrise on Sunday, as the coastal low looks to head more out to sea than up the coast, with only some light to moderate showers in the morning (<1/4") and mostly dry in the afternoon with maybe a few passing showers.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.45695963735406&lat=40.52715685114464
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridges in from the north and west Thursday night
through Friday, helping keep the forecast dry to finish the work
week. Expect low temps in the 40s to low 50s at night and highs in
the mid to upper 60s with mid 50s for the higher elevations.
Friday night, low pressure will be moving eastward across the
Midwestern states, increasing cloud coverage and introducing the
chance for some showers. Previous model runs had brought the warm
front across much of the region, but the latest deterministic
guidance is keeping the front further south, somewhere along the
Delmarva and southern NJ or even further south than that. As a
result, much of the region will remain on the cool side of the low
during the morning. A few scattered showers may be possible late
Friday night and early Saturday morning, mainly across northeast PA,
but otherwise, we will stay dry and cool with increasing clouds.
Come daybreak Saturday morning, rain chances will begin to increase
as the mid level trough becomes established over the Midwest and
into the Northeastern US. The primary surface low will trek across
the Ohio River Valley through the Mid Atlantic states while a
secondary coastal low will begin developing across the Carolinas.
Both will eventually merge and begin to shift off the coast Saturday
night. Guidance has continued to become more cohesive with the
development of the system, though some specific timing differences
remain. Regardless, we can expect rain to begin overspreading the
region Saturday morning, gradually marching eastward into the late
morning and early afternoon hours. The greatest potential for
moderate to heavier rainfall will occur Saturday afternoon and into
the nighttime hours. General rainfall totals of one to two inches of
rain are forecasted.
Actually, the models didn't change much at all since yesterday morning, but the NWS forecast became a little rainier, but they have access to far more than models, plus they're professional meteorologists, although they can be wrong, too.
Most weather apps typically rely on one primary model and have little human oversight, so their accuracy often suffers compared to the NWS or other media sources which synthesize inputs from numerous models and include a human element in analyzing forecasts. But they have gotten much better over the last 5-10 years.
Well….isn’t that the model “changing?” Doesn’t the forecasts change along with the model? Or they just decided to add more rain for the heck of it? Thank you!
What I'm saying is that there are far more inputs to any good forecast than these models, including the experience and expertise of the forecasters, who, for example, may decide that one model is more likely to be correct than another for this specific situation (they're not all equal especially with different setups) or they may have noticed that the actual weather conditions changed in a key direction in the 4-6 hours from the time the models initialized (7 pm last night for the 0Z models) to when they put the forecast out (typically 4 am), favoring a particular outcome more. So, the NWS may make minor changes (their changes were fairly minor this morning from yesterday) when the models don't necessarily reflect that. Make sense?
Good points. It's not science but I have found the weather apps to be pretty good 4-5 days prior. They change a lot leading up to the event but always seem to revert back to the earlier forecast. I say that with years of planning ski trips and making tee times.
I'm on SH and SG right now. There are MAYBE 50 tickets under $30 available? on SH Maybe 100 or so on Seat Geek under $30? Likely MOST of these tickets are on both sites, as well, so let's not get too crazy here.
Numbers: I hope that is correct!
I usually don't post partial model suite outcomes, as it can raise false hope - the 12Z GFS just came out and it shows about 0.1" of rain from 8-11 am and another 0.1" from 11 am to 2 pm, as opposed to the 12Z NAM/RDPS, which show no rain before 2 pm and barely any from 2-4 pm. More to come, but unless we see all or maybe all but one model showing no rain through a certain time, I doubt the NWS and other forecasters will change their forecasts much.
And that is what my weather app said 2 days ago...no rain until 3 PM & on. Let's hope that is correct.
Makes no sense that an app would've shown no rain 48 hours ago, since every global model, 48 hours ago, except the Euro (the NAM/RGEM were not in range yet), was showing 0.1-0.3") before 2 pm. Sounds like a broken clock scenario, lol.
I know...weird right? But that is what it said 2 days ago because I was happy no rain during the tailgate and most of the game. I got concerned when all other reports showed rain early on. I can live with no rain until the end. Was just hoping that would be the final forecast.
COM'ON BABY!!!! I CAN ONLY "DANCE" FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER (softball playoffs continue this evening...)!!!
Oh, I know. Been playing poker occasionally (once a month or so) in the casinos (used to play at the Taj in AC before Parx opened up their poker room) since they opened in the early 90s for poker in AC, plus we have our regular poker games (been doing that monthly since the late 80s) and I used to play a lot on line in the 2000s, before they were outlawed in the US (the new NJ sites aren't nearly as good). And I know I want people calling off multiple bets with a low probability of winning, but it doesn't help when they win those more than probability says they should.
Not sure if you mean during tailgates or the game, so I'll address both. First, though, I didn't think the rain (<0.1") during the spring game was an issue, but I'm pretty insensitive to rain, especially if it's not a cold rain (like colder than 45F out with some wind and it won't be on Saturday). Very likely that the total rainfall prior to noon will be <0.1", which isn't a big deal, especially if one has a canopy.
So, the NWS-Philly discussion sounds a bit less wet than this morning's discussion, but the NWS hasn't updated their hourly weather grids yet, so we don't have updated rainfall forecasts - although they were predicting close to 2" of rain overall for all of CNJ this morning and the text below says 1-1.5" amounts for CNJ, so I'm hopeful the rainfall forecast is going to decrease (it did for adjacent Union County and Staten Island, which are overseen by the NWS-NYC). I'm especially hoping they decrease the rainfall for 8 am to 2 pm in P'way from 0.27" this morning to about 0.1", which is what the NWS-NYC is showing for Union/SI (but I still think they'll show up to 1/4" of rain for the game). That would likely mean little to no rain before noon for tailgates. Will update this post when the hourly grids get updated.
