Wouldn't be shocked if Schiano gets passed over at Miami to just try to get an NFL job, even as an assistant. I've always thought his real ambition was to be an NFL HC and I believe he thinks he can still get another shot. It's one thing to come back to college for a premier job (and regardless of whether I think the Miami job is overrated or not it still attracts top-tier candidates), quite another to come in to do a teardown/rebuild.
I believe that if Greg really just wanted any coaching job, he'd have taken the UCF job when it was apparently his to take. Scott Frost got $1.7 million so you'd have to think Greg could've easily gotten $2 million-plus, which would be in the higher end of the range I'd expect us to be spending on an HC. He wouldn't have to had to move his family (a big concern with middle-school and high-school aged kids) and they've got the facilities in place.
At the end of the day, though, I think it's at least 50-50 Schiano's coaching Miami next year, just because I'm not convinced Richt will coach next year (he might take a year off) and Mullen might just be holding up Mississippi State for more money, which I believe he's done before.