2/23 BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS

[fluoxetine]

Is MSU done if two more losses to Michigan?

Not if they win the other two games.

Will Duke and UNC get in? Minny looks done. Will Indy be the same? What will happen with UConn, Xavier and SHU? I can see all three or none but guessing at least one of those three.

Duke 50%, UNC 75%, Minnesota 15%, Indiana 15-20%, UConn 90%, Xavier 20%, Seton Hall 35%

St. Louis has a shot and certainly deserves to be in conversation. Beat LSU, St. Bonnies and now Richmond, all who have been on the bubble. Two point loss to VCU in a questionable officiated game to say the least. Have a win over NC State and a lose to Minny.

"Questionable" officiating has no bearing on anything; a loss is a loss. That said Saint Louis still has a chance.

Still have no idea what they will do with A10 as four are interchangeable with VCU, Bonnies, Richmond and St.Louis. Likewise the same with American Athletic after Houston with Wichita, SMU and perhaps Memphis.

A10 will get 2-3 most likely. The Bonnies and VCU are pretty comfortable. Saint Louis/Richmond out currently but one of them probably makes it.

American looking like a 1-2 bid league. Houston obviously no matter what. If someone beats them in the conference tourney then they get 2. SMU is the only one who still has a reasonable shot at an at-large bid. Memphis/Wichita are more likely to win the conference tourney than get in at-large.

Utah State is alive certainly if Stanford continues to fade and NCAA wants more western teams. I know the NCAA or CBS "never" does that. ;-) I guess 4 teams from the MWC would be a stretch.

MWC could get four, although I think 3 is slightly more likely.

San Diego St/Boise St locks, Colorado St. pretty likely, Utah St on the bubble. MWC is a weird conference with a great team, a good team, a couple of pretty good teams, and then like 3 complete bottom feeder teams.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Because the stupid NET isnt dropping for them

It would really help us if Cuse could just hang on in Atlanta...

 

[RU-ROCS]

I will say I do not like how Va Tech is finishing. They returned from Covid with a loss to Ga Tech at home. They have a big win over Nova and their others wins of note are Virgina, Clemson, and Duke. The UVA isnt looking as good now. I locked them in and I still feel they will make it but at this point I would currently put them down at the 8 seed behind RU/BYU who would be 7 even if I would not lock RU/BYU in if that makes any sense.

Va Tech loses the last 3, I guess they could fall close to the last 4 line but I am still confident that they make it and the covid pause will help their case..Just wanted to make a note about their profile.

Remember they also lost to Penn State in Blacksburg by 20 points!

 

[G- RUnit]

regional and conference politics will certainly be part of the NCAA selections... as always.

you see it in the recent AP polls... voters are now concerned about how their more local teams and conferences are
imagine a case where, in OOC play, a conference goes undefeated and then in the regularseason, everyone is .500.. well, you just know not everyone is going to make the NCAAs. In the room there will be talk (or at least THOUGHT) of how many slots given conferences "deserve". The various rankings upn which they say they rely were meant to end the "horse-trading" that goes on... possibly limiting such negotiations to who plays where and who has an easier path.

I wonder, @bac2therac , do you take into account such things in filling out your projections? Do you say to yourself, well, the Big Ten really could "deserve" 11 slots.. but you just know 9 or 10 will be the committee limit.

Officially it is not supposed to be matter but I think we all know better.

I think CBS probably has a say in matchups too.

 

[bac2therac]

regional and conference politics will certainly be part of the NCAA selections... as always.

you see it in the recent AP polls... voters are now concerned about how their more local teams and conferences are represented.

imagine a case where, in OOC play, a conference goes undefeated and then in the regularseason, everyone is .500.. well, you just know not everyone is going to make the NCAAs. In the room there will be talk (or at least THOUGHT) of how many slots given conferences "deserve". The various rankings upn which they say they rely were meant to end the "horse-trading" that goes on... possibly limiting such negotiations to who plays where and who has an easier path.

I wonder, @bac2therac , do you take into account such things in filling out your projections? Do you say to yourself, well, the Big Ten really could "deserve" 11 slots.. but you just know 9 or 10 will be the committee limit.

honestly its not such a big issue with the bigger conference as it is with the notion that conferences like WCC, A10, AAC and MWC deserve at least one at large if not 2. I do not get the fascination that bracketlogists have with the A10. I think its a crummy conference with average teams..ditto for AAC

 

[bac2therac]

will SMU even play another game...they have been covid pause for quite some time, ditto Wichita but because of their opponents

 

[bac2therac]

You say goodbye Indiana, I say hello Connecticut

 

[bac2therac]

good win by Ga Tech..puts the Orange to sleep once and for all

 

[bac2therac]

Tennessee about to go down yet again. You know their resume really isnt that good. I can argue RU has a better resume and better wins.

 

[bac2therac]

RU actually fell in the NET to 31 because St Bonnies ran up the score against weakfish Geo Washington. Proving the NET is really flawed

 

[BillyC80]

Tennessee about to go down yet again. You know their resume really isnt that good. I can argue RU has a better resume and better wins.

Since TN was ranked 25th and had a bad loss to Auburn, and if #23 Wisky loses today to IL (without Ayo) does RU have a shot at cracking the Top 25 at the end of the regular season?

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Since TN was ranked 25th and had a bad loss to Auburn, and if #23 Wisky loses today to IL (without Ayo) does RU have a shot at cracking the Top 25 at the end of the regular season?

I think we win our last two we are knocking on the door.

 

[Plum Street]

Decourcy has uconn as a 7 and us a 9.

 

[bac2therac]

DeCourcy is a total joke

 

[bac2therac]

Since TN was ranked 25th and had a bad loss to Auburn, and if #23 Wisky loses today to IL (without Ayo) does RU have a shot at cracking the Top 25 at the end of the regular season?

with 9 losses, I would say no, some smaller schools will get votes

 

[G- RUnit]

Interesting Xavier beating Creighton and UConn looking good, SHU must beat UConn or think it’s over.

Oklahoma loses again. Tennessee loses again. Wisconsin loses again. Texas loses again. Seeding will be interesting to say the least. FSU losing surprises me but hello UNC.

So VCU loses to Davidson. Good luck figuring that out. St. Louis might still make it. Seen them play a few times in last two weeks. They are tourney worthy.

Think Oregon is now firmly in.

Ole Miss may be a co favorite with SHU for NIT?

 

[shields]

Duke loses , very good.

 

[G- RUnit]

Don’t think they can get in now. GT firmly ahead. Don’t know why Duke didn’t feed Hurd every time down the court.

 

[RU848789]

Don’t think they can get in now. GT firmly ahead. Don’t know why they didn’t feed Hurd every time down the court.

Although we all know they have the talent to win the ACC tourney if they get hot. Imagine being a 6-seed and having to play an 11-seed Duke.

 

[G- RUnit]

UNC more likely. Starting to wonder about coach K. They could not stop Hurd and ignored him for stretches at a time.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Since TN was ranked 25th and had a bad loss to Auburn, and if #23 Wisky loses today to IL (without Ayo) does RU have a shot at cracking the Top 25 at the end of the regular season?

Wisky - IL went down tot eh wire.. a double technical was claled very late.. but no foul shots.. would have been interesting if both teams had to shoot their technicals since Wisky shoots them better.. but I suppose its the best FT shooter on the floor for each team... so a wash.. but, still.. would have likes to see that.

 

[bac2therac]

recapping yesterday where alot of bubble schools took a loss.....

In the Pac 12 where surprisingly UCLA is now the projected AQ, the Bruins lost to Colorado. Colorado is locked in after that win over USC and while UCLA profile is rather meh I would say at this point they are pretty much a lock

Bubble Stanford suffered yet another loss, this time at home to Oregon State, they are on life support at best at this point accumulating all these losses

USC loses at Utah, 2 losses this week killing their seed and looking like that chance at a 4 has slipped away trying to salvage a 6.

Oregon got a win at California and is just about a lock

In the Mountain West, San Diego State completed the sweep over Boise State. The Aztecs are now projected as a 7 for me and if they win the conference tourney, this will bump to a 6 and outside shot at a 5. Meanwhile tough week for Boise State. They are in that last grouping of 8 in so some worries going forward. However alot of bubbles lost around them so they did not lose much ground overall.

In the Big 10, Indiana got beat up by Michigan and their hopes are flickering given the mark is now 12-12. Will need to win at Michigan State and at Purdue to get back into the field.

Minnesota losing to Nebraska on the heels of losing to Nebby has pretty much corroded their resume. Its not even about a road win anymore for them. Now 13-12 and down to 72 in the NET, they will have to win at Penn State and Rutgers just to stay ON the bubble and will likely need to reach the Big 10 semis to get back into the field.

In the SEC, Arkansas starting to look impressive and they are grabbing a 4 seed after their win over LSU. Meanwhile LSU continues to look rather meh and they need a win either vs Vandy or at Missouri to keep themselves from dropping to the dangerous territory of the last 8 in.

Florida wins at Kentucky, just about ready to lock the Gators in.

Tennessee with another questionable loss this time at Auburn. The Vols at one time a 3 seed are down to a 5

Ole Miss loses at Vandy and its time to put a fork in the Rebels barring a run to the SEC finals

In MVC action, Drake loses at Bradley Thats 3 losses now for them and all they have really is a gaudy record and a win over Loyola when it comes down to it. Helped immensely by a plethora of bubble schools struggling. In the field as of today but a loss to anyone other than Loyola in the finals and they are out easily and even then a loss to the Ramblers leaves them 50/50. Loyola topped Southern Illinois and are a lock as an at large if they do not win the MVC tourney.

In the Big East, UConn got a much needed win over Marquette, not impressive in itself but because the bubble is so tragic, it was enough to vault them into the field. Still big week for them coming up. Big bubble matchup with Seton Hall. Win that and take care of Gtown and they are in without a doubt.

Xavier got a needed quality win by upsetting Creighton. Still just putting them barely out of the field right now. Two road games at Gtown/Marq are must wins.

In the ACC, Georgia Tech took care of Syracuse to fortify their resume. Yellowjackets starting to look good moving up out of the last 4 in line to first four byes. Giant bubble game with Duke looms on Tuesday.

Duke falls in overtime to Louisville. Blue Devils now back in the last 4 and its a shaky spot for them given their resume is lacking. Will need wins over Ga Tech and UNC this week and both are on the road. Meanwhile Louisville gets some breathing space from the bubble but still are not a lock yet. ...at Va Tech/Virginia, cannot lose them both to feel good.

No Carolina big time bouceback with win over Florida State. Heels not quite a lock yet but getting close

Va Tech calmed any fears of tanking the season by routing Wake.

In the Atlantic 10, Just when VCU was starting to look good as an at large, they lose at Davidson. However since most of the rest of the teams they were ahead of also lost, they still do not drop to last 4 in. Somehow their regular season is over and now wait for the A10 tourney bracket

In the Big 12 there are no bubbles but there is jockeying for seeding and Kansas took a big step toward getting a 3 with their win over Baylor.

Oklahoma State continued to impress. I have them as a 5 after their recent stretch and Oklahoma with a bunch of losses dropping from a 3 to a 4 and that spot is teetering given their NET is dropping fast.

Texas Tech struggling of late took down Texas. Think both schools are solid as 4s right now

In the WCC, BYU won the season finale over St Marys. Cougars are locked in and are a 7 seed.



FIRST 4 BYES: MICHIGAN STATE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, BOISE STATE, GEORGIA TECH

LAST 4 IN: DRAKE, CONNECTICUT, DUKE, COLORADO STATE

FIRST 4 OUT: XAVIER, SETON HALL, SAINT LOUIS, UTAH STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: MINNESOTA, STANFORD, INDIANA, RICHMOND

 

[bac2therac]

I have dropped Rutgers to a 8 seed currently based on results the past day and given RU next opponent is Nebraska, that will not likely change. My thoughts on Rutgers is that they are marginal 7, likely 8 right now. Remember the wins over Indiana and Minnesota are looking worse for the profile as those two tank their seasons. A win at Minnesota while it will be a Quad 1 is not going to move the needle too much. RU could bump to a 7 headed into the Big 10 tourney but no higher. Aloss to Minnesota dooms RU to the 8/9 game in projections. To move any higher than a 7 RU needs to win two games in the Big 10 tourney. That means getting to the semis, they could get up to a 6. A five only if they reach the finals.

I am stopping short of putting RU a definitive lock until after they beat Nebby. With only a few bubble teams outside the field, even with a loss its highly unlikely that RU would not make the field. If they lose to Nebby though, that puts them down perhaps to a 10. A loss to Minny has them down an 11, another loss in the Big 10 tourney and its trying to avoid the play in game. Thats just the most likely scenerio with 3 losses.

 

[bac2therac]

7: SAN DIEGO STATE, MISSOURI, BYU, COLORADO

8: RUTGERS, FLORIDA, VIRGINIA TECH, LOYOLA CHICAGO

9: UCLA, OREGON, SAINT BONAVENTURE, MARYLAND

 

[fluoxetine]

The base case is probably a 2-2 finish. Projected 7 seed.

0-2 +
0-1 => 11 seed (not play-in)
1-1 => 11 seed (not play-in)
2-1 => 8 seed
3-1 => 7 seed
4-0 => 6 seed

1-1 +
0-1 => 10 seed
1-1 => 7 seed
2-1 => 6 seed
3-1 => 6 seed
4-0 => 3 seed

2-0 +
0-1 => 7 seed
1-1 => 7 seed
2-1 => 5 seed
3-1 => 4 seed
4-0 => 2 seed

 

[fluoxetine]

recapping yesterday where alot of bubble schools took a loss.....

In the Pac 12 where surprisingly UCLA is now the projected AQ, the Bruins lost to Colorado. Colorado is locked in after that win over USC and while UCLA profile is rather meh I would say at this point they are pretty much a lock

Bubble Stanford suffered yet another loss, this time at home to Oregon State, they are on life support at best at this point accumulating all these losses

USC loses at Utah, 2 losses this week killing their seed and looking like that chance at a 4 has slipped away trying to salvage a 6.

Oregon got a win at California and is just about a lock

In the Mountain West, San Diego State completed the sweep over Boise State. The Aztecs are now projected as a 7 for me and if they win the conference tourney, this will bump to a 6 and outside shot at a 5. Meanwhile tough week for Boise State. They are in that last grouping of 8 in so some worries going forward. However alot of bubbles lost around them so they did not lose much ground overall.

In the Big 10, Indiana got beat up by Michigan and their hopes are flickering given the mark is now 12-12. Will need to win at Michigan State and at Purdue to get back into the field.

Minnesota losing to Nebraska on the heels of losing to Nebby has pretty much corroded their resume. Its not even about a road win anymore for them. Now 13-12 and down to 72 in the NET, they will have to win at Penn State and Rutgers just to stay ON the bubble and will likely need to reach the Big 10 semis to get back into the field.

In the SEC, Arkansas starting to look impressive and they are grabbing a 4 seed after their win over LSU. Meanwhile LSU continues to look rather meh and they need a win either vs Vandy or at Missouri to keep themselves from dropping to the dangerous territory of the last 8 in.

Florida wins at Kentucky, just about ready to lock the Gators in.

Tennessee with another questionable loss this time at Auburn. The Vols at one time a 3 seed are down to a 5

Ole Miss loses at Vandy and its time to put a fork in the Rebels barring a run to the SEC finals

In MVC action, Drake loses at Bradley Thats 3 losses now for them and all they have really is a gaudy record and a win over Loyola when it comes down to it. Helped immensely by a plethora of bubble schools struggling. In the field as of today but a loss to anyone other than Loyola in the finals and they are out easily and even then a loss to the Ramblers leaves them 50/50. Loyola topped Southern Illinois and are a lock as an at large if they do not win the MVC tourney.

In the Big East, UConn got a much needed win over Marquette, not impressive in itself but because the bubble is so tragic, it was enough to vault them into the field. Still big week for them coming up. Big bubble matchup with Seton Hall. Win that and take care of Gtown and they are in without a doubt.

Xavier got a needed quality win by upsetting Creighton. Still just putting them barely out of the field right now. Two road games at Gtown/Marq are must wins.

In the ACC, Georgia Tech took care of Syracuse to fortify their resume. Yellowjackets starting to look good moving up out of the last 4 in line to first four byes. Giant bubble game with Duke looms on Tuesday.

Duke falls in overtime to Louisville. Blue Devils now back in the last 4 and its a shaky spot for them given their resume is lacking. Will need wins over Ga Tech and UNC this week and both are on the road. Meanwhile Louisville gets some breathing space from the bubble but still are not a lock yet. ...at Va Tech/Virginia, cannot lose them both to feel good.

No Carolina big time bouceback with win over Florida State. Heels not quite a lock yet but getting close

Va Tech calmed any fears of tanking the season by routing Wake.

In the Atlantic 10, Just when VCU was starting to look good as an at large, they lose at Davidson. However since most of the rest of the teams they were ahead of also lost, they still do not drop to last 4 in. Somehow their regular season is over and now wait for the A10 tourney bracket

In the Big 12 there are no bubbles but there is jockeying for seeding and Kansas took a big step toward getting a 3 with their win over Baylor.

Oklahoma State continued to impress. I have them as a 5 after their recent stretch and Oklahoma with a bunch of losses dropping from a 3 to a 4 and that spot is teetering given their NET is dropping fast.

Texas Tech struggling of late took down Texas. Think both schools are solid as 4s right now

In the WCC, BYU won the season finale over St Marys. Cougars are locked in and are a 7 seed.



FIRST 4 BYES: MICHIGAN STATE, VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH, BOISE STATE, GEORGIA TECH

LAST 4 IN: DRAKE, CONNECTICUT, DUKE, COLORADO STATE

FIRST 4 OUT: XAVIER, SETON HALL, SAINT LOUIS, UTAH STATE

NEXT 4 OUT: MINNESOTA, STANFORD, INDIANA, RICHMOND

Pretty amazingly in all of this I agree with almost everything. I do think Boise and LSU are pretty much locked in.

I have UConn on the 10 line currently and Duke pretty far out honestly.

 

[scarlet night]

7: SAN DIEGO STATE, MISSOURI, BYU, COLORADO

8: RUTGERS, FLORIDA, VIRGINIA TECH, LOYOLA CHICAGO

9: UCLA, OREGON, SAINT BONAVENTURE, MARYLAND

How realistic is it for us to move up if we hold serve and some of your 7s have bad losses/conference tournaments?

 

[fluoxetine]

What do you define as holding serve?

 

[bac2therac]

Pretty amazingly in all of this I agree with almost everything. I do think Boise and LSU are pretty much locked in.

I have UConn on the 10 line currently and Duke pretty far out honestly.

my issue with Boise is that they are not far off from Colorado State so tough to seperate, Boise beat BYU, but CSU beat SDSt. If one takes a loss in the MWC tourney they could lose a spot. However Drake losing helps both.

and remember that Wichita State spot as the AQ is tenuous at best right now..that would open another slot

Honestly I dont see UConn with some great profile...they beat USC and that loss isnt looking as good and they beat Xavier..who else? Xavier beat Oklahoma and Creighton. Those are better wins.

Duke is there because they have 3 quality wins so not sure how you can say they are far out. Yes a case could be made that they are last 4 out. They need to win 2 to stay in I think. I dont do predictive stuff just how things stand currently

Not a fan of LSU's profile, if they lose to Vandy thats a bad loss and if they cannot beat Missouri, thats going to put them in the last 8 in area. While I do agree, I do not think they miss the tournament, another loss in the SEC tourney opening round would put them in the first four game territory.

 

[bac2therac]

How realistic is it for us to move up if we hold serve and some of your 7s have bad losses/conference tournaments?

if RU wins two and then wins one in the Big 10 tourney, they easily could be a 7 but I think BYU/SDst are really solid on this line right now. I think Col/Missouri are in iffy spots here. Wisconsin could drop from a 6 all the way to an 8 with a poor finish. Fla and Va Tech are also threats to pass RU and go to a 7. . Maryland with 3 wins to finish the year could be a 7.

 

[RUDead]

Nova not looking very good right now.

 

[fluoxetine]

Duke is there because they have 3 quality wins so not sure how you can say they are far out. Yes a case could be made that they are last 4 out. They need to win 2 to stay in I think. I dont do predictive stuff just how things stand currently

Virginia is the only one that moves the needle. I guess home wins against Georgia Tech and Clemson are something but not exactly amazing. Plus those 2 Q3 losses and 11-9 record against a pretty mediocre schedule. I really don't see it.

 

[fluoxetine]

Why Duke over Hall for example?

Seton Hall has a better record against a better schedule, 3 Q1 wins as opposed to 1 for Duke, the same number of Q1/2 wins, only one Q3 loss as opposed to 2.

 

[bac2therac]

Duke has beaten 3 NCAA projected schools...Virgina, Clemson, Georgia Tech

Seton Hall only UConn which is barely in the field...also Xavier which some have in..so that maybe 2.

I do not value the Penn State win by Seton Hall over a 8-13 school as meaning anything

I value those Duke wins over Seton Hall wins

They both have questionable losses...Duke to Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh. Seton Hall to Gtown, Rhode Island, Butler and Providence. Just because a loss is in Q2 doesnt mean its not a bad loss.

Is it close between the 2...sure. In fact I really think when push comes to shove its about 9 schools competing for 6 bids, Xavier, SHU, St Louis really the only legit bubble contenders at the moment.

 

[knightfan7]

Nova going down to 8-13 Butler, 73-61 with 25 sec's left.

 

[bac2therac]

Nova's 2 seed could be in jeopardy, not a given anymore. Iowa and Houston are possibilities as 2s going forward, even Florida State despite yesterday's loss, if they win the ACC tourney.

 

[shields]

Nova should be 3.

 

[Night Man]

Butler's hot! Another NCAA title game in their future from 7-13?

Minnesota probably drops out of the top 75 if RU beats them, right? So that's looking like either a Q2 win or a Q1 loss? (with some small chance of a Q1 win or Q2 loss depending on what they do in Indy)

 

[G- RUnit]

Nova's 2 seed could be in jeopardy, not a given anymore. Iowa and Houston are possibilities as 2s going forward, even Florida State despite yesterday's loss, if they win the ACC tourney.

Would love to play Nova or Houston as a 2 or 3.

 

[Night Man]

bac, I'm starting to suspect that whoever emerges from the {Ill, Iowa, OSU} pack to win the B1G tournament or lose to Michigan in the finals would get the last #1 seed. Plausible?